Daily Market Update Report as on Wednesday, October 03, 2018

Transcription

1 Daily Market Update Report as on Wednesday, October 03, 2018 Gold prices remained supported in the wake of the U.S. Federal Reserve s plans last week for multiple interest rate hikes by The Fed raised interest rates last week and said it planned four more increases by the end of 2019 and another in U.S. consumer spending increased steadily in August, supporting expectations of solid economic growth in the third quarter, while a measure of underlying inflation remained at the Fed s 2 percent target for a fourth straight month. The Fed s Chairman Jerome Powell also discussed trade related issues, adding that the Fed had heard a "rising chorus of concerns from businesses all over the country." He also indicated there was no change in his thinking on monetary policy, although the Fed made an amendment to the statement by removing the use of accommodative to describe its stance on monetary policy. There was much debate about whether removal of that key phrase was hawkish or dovish, but the Fed chief poured some cold water on the speculation. "The change does not signal any change in the likely path of policy," Powell said at his press conference. "Instead it is a sign that policy is proceeding in line with our expectations." Physical demand saw an uptick in the world's biggest gold consumer, China, after prices fell to six-week lows in the week, while discounts narrowed in India as buyers postponed purchases, awaiting a bigger fall. Premiums in China strengthened to $6.5-$8 an ounce from last week's $4-$6. Cheaper gold prices led to increased buying in both Hong Kong and China. Shanghai premiums increased on Friday, reflecting higher demand. Buying remained subdued in India, the second biggest buyer of the precious metal, as buyers delayed purchases. Dealers in India were offering a discount of up to $2 an ounce over official domestic prices in the week, compared to discounts of $5 last week, the highest in three months. India's gold imports more than doubled in August to hit their highest level in 15 months as lower prices prompted manufacturers to replenish inventory for a jewellery exhibition. Hedge funds and money managers raised their net short position in COMEX gold contracts in the week to Sept. 25, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data showed. They also trimmed their net short position in silver contracts and switched to a net long position in copper futures and options, according to the data. Gold speculators raised their net short position by 2,923 lots to 77,313 lots, the largest in three weeks, according to CFTC data. Hedge funds and money managers cut their net short position in silver by 2,648 contracts to 42,409 contracts, CFTC data showed. Switzerland's gold trade boomed in August, with imports hitting their highest level since January 2017 and exports the highest since June last year, data from the Swiss customs bureau showed. Switzerland, a major trading, vaulting and refining centre for precious metals, said it exported tonnes of gold in August, more than twice the amount it shipped in the same month a year earlier. It imported tonnes, up from tonnes in August last year. Exports to China, the biggest buyer of gold from Switzerland, at 44.3 tonnes were the highest in two months, taking the January-August total to tonnes, up from tonnes a year earlier. Shipments of 3.3 tonnes to Hong Kong in August were the lowest in four years, but the January-August total of tonnes is down by only around 10 tonnes from a year earlier. Date Gold* Silver* 01 Oct 2018 (Monday) Sep 2018 (Friday) Sep 2018 (Thursday) The above rate are IBJA PM rates * Rates are exclusive of GST 01 Oct 2018 (Monday) Page 1

2 Outlook: Gold prices edged up buoyed by safe-haven demand as Italy s budget plan sets it on course for a potential clash with the European Union. For the day prices a drop towards will look to buy with a stoploss of below expecting prices to jump towards level. MCX GOLD Market View Daily Levels Open High Low Close Value Change % Change Margin Margin (Rs.) Volume Open Interest Cng in OI (%) Prev Value(Mln) 52 Week High 52 Week Low Resistance Support Spread FEB - DEC APR - FEB Gold prices looks to trade with firmness buoyed by safe-haven demand as Italy s budget plan sets it on course for a potential clash with the European Union. Risk appetite was hit after EU officials expressed concerns about Italy s budget plan, which would widen the deficit significantly. The deficit blowout revived fears of the eurozone debt crisis and put pressure on the euro. Italy s government has no intention of leaving the euro, Claudio Borghi, the economics spokesman of the right-wing League, said, clarifying earlier remarks which had roiled financial markets. China s hopes of negotiating a free trade pact with Canada or Mexico were dealt a sharp setback by a provision deep in the new U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement that aims to forbid such deals with non-market countries. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said that the U.S. central bank plans gradual increases to interest rates. This could further boost the U.S. currency, making dollar-priced gold more expensive for holders of other currencies, potentially subduing demand. The Fed raised U.S. rates last week and said it planned four more increases by the end of 2019 and another in 2020, citing steady economic growth and a robust jobs market. Investors have also opted to buy the dollar and U.S. Treasury bonds as safe investments instead of gold. Speculators raised their net short position in gold by 2,923 lots to 77,313 lots, the largest in three weeks, in the week to Sept. 25, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data showed. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 8.26% to settled at 12054, now Gold is getting support at and below same could see a test of level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 31063, a move above could see prices testing Page 2

3 INT. GOLD$ Market View Daily Levels Open High Low Close Value Change % Change Resistance Support Outlook: Gold price traded positively today to test the key resistance and keeps its stability below it until now, accompanied by witnessing negative signals through stochastic, which supports the chances of resuming the expected bearish trend on the intraday and short term basis, which depends on holding below the mentioned level, while its targets begin at and extend to Gold prices looks to trade with firmness buoyed by safe-haven demand as Italy s budget plan sets it on course for a potential clash with the European Union. Risk appetite was hit after EU officials expressed concerns about Italy s budget plan, which would widen the deficit significantly. The deficit blowout revived fears of the eurozone debt crisis and put pressure on the euro. Italy s government has no intention of leaving the euro, Claudio Borghi, the economics spokesman of the right-wing League, said, clarifying earlier remarks which had roiled financial markets. China s hopes of negotiating a free trade pact with Canada or Mexico were dealt a sharp setback by a provision deep in the new U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement that aims to forbid such deals with non-market countries. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said that the U.S. central bank plans gradual increases to interest rates. This could further boost the U.S. currency, making dollar-priced gold more expensive for holders of other currencies, potentially subduing demand. The Fed raised U.S. rates last week and said it planned four more increases by the end of 2019 and another in 2020, citing steady economic growth and a robust jobs market. Investors have also opted to buy the dollar and U.S. Treasury bonds as safe investments instead of gold. Speculators raised their net short position in gold by 2,923 lots to 77,313 lots, the largest in three weeks, in the week to Sept. 25, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data showed. Technically now Gold is getting support at and below same could see a test of level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at , a move above could see prices testing Page 3

4 Rupee dropped tracking the surge in crude oil prices amid strong dollar as globally investors expects Fed to hike rates multiple times by Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 5.07% to settled at , now USDINR is getting support at and below same could see a test of level, and resistance is now likely to be seen at , a move above could see prices testing USDINR Market View Daily Levels Open High Low Close Value Change % Change Margin Margin (Rs.) Volume Open Interest Cng in OI (%) Prev Value(Mln) 52 Week High 52 Week Low Resistance Support Spread NOV - OCT DEC - NOV Rupee dropped tracking the surge in crude oil prices amid strong dollar as globally investors expects Fed to hike rates multiple times by The Reserve Bank of India said it has decided to buy a total of 360 billion rupees worth government bonds under its open market operations (OMOs) this month, in a bid to ease liquidity conditions in the market. The central bank said the auctions would be conducted during the second, third and fourth week of October. It said the OMO amount stated is indicative and RBI retains the flexibility to change it, depending on the evolving liquidity and market conditions. The RBI s open-market operation announcement followed news when India said it would borrow a gross 2.47 trillion rupees ($34.08 billion) from the market between October and March through dated securities, lower than budgeted estimates. The government will effectively cut its market borrowing by 700 billion rupees due to higher-than-expected earnings of 750 billion rupees through its small savings scheme. The RBI said that its assistance plan followed an assessment of durable liquidity needs and the seasonal growth in currency in circulation ahead of upcoming holiday celebrations. The auctions would be conducted during the second, third and fourth week of October, the RBI said.the 360 billion rupee OMO amount stated was indicative and RBI retained the flexibility to change it, depending on the evolving liquidity and market conditions. Technically now USDINR is getting support at and below same could see a test of level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at , a move above could see prices testing Page 4

5 Gold Spot 995 Gold Spot 999 Exch. Descr. Last* Exch. Descr. Last* CMDTY Gold Ahmedabad CMDTY Gold Ahmedabad CMDTY Gold Bangalore CMDTY Gold Bangalore CMDTY Gold Chennai CMDTY Gold Chennai CMDTY Gold Cochin CMDTY Gold Cochin CMDTY Gold Delhi CMDTY Gold Delhi CMDTY Gold Hyderabad CMDTY Gold Hyderabad CMDTY Gold Jaipur CMDTY Gold Jaipur CMDTY Gold Kolkata CMDTY Gold Mumbai CMDTY Gold Mumbai * Rates including GST * Rates including GST Silver Spot 999 Bullion Futures on MCX Exch. Descr. Last* Exch. Descr. Last CMDTY Silver Ahmedabad MCX GOLD 04AUG CMDTY Silver Bangalore MCX GOLD 05OCT CMDTY Silver Chennai MCX GOLD 05DEC CMDTY Silver Delhi MCX SILVER 05JUL CMDTY Silver Hyderabad MCX SILVER 05SEP CMDTY Silver Jaipur MCX SILVER 05DEC CMDTY Silver Kolkata CMDTY Silver Mumbai * Rates including GST Bullion Futures on DGCX Gold and Silver Fix Exch. Descr. Last Exch. Descr. Last DGCX GOLD 28NOV CMDTY Gold London AM FIX DGCX GOLD 29JAN CMDTY Gold London PM FIX DGCX GOLD QUANTO 29NOV CMDTY Silver London FIX DGCX GOLD QUANTO 30JAN DGCX SILVER 28NOV Gold / Silver Ratio DGCX SILVER 26FEB Exch. Descr. Last DGCX SILVER QUANTO 29NOV INTL. SPOT GOLD SILVER RATIO MCX MCX GOLD SILVER RATIO Page 5

6 Report is prepared for information purposes only. Kedia Stocks & Commodities Research Pvt Ltd. Mumbai. INDIA. Mobile: / info@kediacommodity.com URL: General Disclaimers: This Report is prepared and distributed by Kedia Stocks & Commodities Research Pvt Ltd. for information purposes only. The recommendations, if any, made herein are expression of views and/or opinions and should not be deemed or construed to be neither advice for the purpose of purchase or sale through KSCRPL nor any solicitation or offering of any investment /trading opportuni. These information / opinions / views are not meant to serve as a professional investment guide for the readers. No action is solicited based upon the information provided herein. Recipients of this Report should rely on information/data arising out of their own investigations. Readers are advised to seek independent professional advice and arrive at an informed trading/investment decision before executing any trades or making any investments. This Report has been prepared on the basis of publicly available information, internally developed data and other sources believed by KSCRPL to be reliable. IBJA and KSCRPL or its directors, employees, affiliates or representatives do not assume any responsibility for, or warrant the accuracy, completeness, adequacy and reliability of such information / opinions / views. While due care has been taken to ensure that the disclosures and opinions given are fair and reasonable, none of the directors, employees, affiliates or representatives of IBJA and KSCRPL shall be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental, consequential, punitive or exemplary damages, including lost profits arising in any way whatsoever from the information / opinions / views contained in this Report. The possession, circulation and/or distribution of this Report may be restricted or regulated in certain jurisdictions by appropriate laws. No action has been or will be taken by KSCRPL in any jurisdiction (other than India), where any action for such purpose(s) is required. Accordingly, this Report shall not be possessed, circulated and/ or distributed in any such country or jurisdiction unless such action is in compliance with all applicable laws and regulations of such country or jurisdiction. KSCRPL requires such recipient to inform himself about and to observe any restrictions at his own expense, without any liability to KSCRPL. Any dispute arising out of this Report shall be subject to the exclusive jurisdiction of the Courts in India. Page 6