Daily Market Update Report as on Tuesday, August 28, 2018

Transcription

1 Daily Market Update Report as on Tuesday, August 28, 2018 Gold prices inched up on Monday after marking their biggest one-day percentage gain in over a year the session before, with the US dollar easing on comments from the Federal Reserve chairman in support of a gradual approach to raising rates. Fed chair Jerome Powell had on Friday defended the US central bank's push to raise interest rates as healthy for the economy and signalled more hikes were coming despite President Donald Trump's criticism of higher borrowing costs. Hedge funds and money managers increased their net short position in COMEX gold contracts to another record in the week to August 21, US CFTC data showed on Friday. Floods in Kerala likely to hit wedding season gold demand - Jewelers in India s biggest gold-buying state expect sales to drop during the peak festival and wedding season after heavy rains and floods caused more than $3 billion of damage. The usual spend of 200 grams to 1 kilogram of gold per wedding in Kerala may drop 50 percent in the next month, B. Govindan, president of the All Kerala Gold & Silver Merchants Association, said in a phone interview. In India, the monthly per capita expenditure on gold ornaments was the highest in Kerala at nearly 400 rupees ($5.70), according to the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation s survey. The country s key festival and wedding season runs from the end of August to December. China's July net gold imports via Hong Kong plunge 45 pct m/m - China s net gold imports via main conduit Hong Kong fell about 45 percent in July from the previous month amid lacklustre demand, data showed on Monday. Imports via Hong Kong fell to tonnes in July from tonnes in June, according to data from the Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department. Total gold imports via Hong Kong also plunged 45 percent to tonnes in July from tonnes in June. Boost for jewellery exporters: Niti Aayog puts gold import onus on RBI - The RBI should ensure greater participation by banks for import of gold to assure necessary supply of the precious metal to jewellery exporters, a report by government think tank Niti Aayog has suggested. A Niti Aayog committee, headed by its Principal Adviser Ratan P Watal, also recommended that the design of Duty Drawback Scheme for gold imports needs to be reviewed and changed to ensure full duty drawback on gold for the purpose of jewellery export. The banks are the nominated agencies for import of gold. There are very few banks active in their role as the nominated agencies for gold imports, the report highlighted. Niti Aayog suggests slashing import duty, GST rate on gold - Government think tank Niti Aayog has suggested the government to bring down import duty on gold from the existing level of 10 per cent and also slash the GST rate on the precious metal from the current 3 per cent. It has also recommended the government to review and revamp the gold monetisation scheme and the sovereign gold bond scheme and introduce new gold savings account in banks besides setting up of a gold board and bullion exchanges across the country to have greater financialisation of the yellow metal. Date Gold* Silver* 27 Aug 2018 (Monday) Aug 2018 (Friday) Aug 2018 (Thursday) The above rate are IBJA PM rates * Rates are exclusive of GST 27 Aug 2018 (Monday) Page 1

2 Outlook: Gold prices remained supported with the dollar under pressure in the wake of a trade deal between the United States and Mexico. For the day prices a drop towards will look to buy with a stoploss of below expecting prices to jump towards level. MCX GOLD Market View Daily Levels Open High Low Close Value Change % Change Margin Margin (Rs.) Volume Open Interest Cng in OI (%) Prev Value(Mln) 52 Week High 52 Week Low Resistance Support Spread DEC - OCT FEB - DEC Gold on MCX settled up 0.33% at as a weaker U.S. dollar and trade tensions boosted the precious metal. The dollar also eased on comments from the Federal Reserve chairman in support of a gradual approach to raising rates. Meanwhile, officials from China and the U.S. are expected to meet later this month to resume trade negotiations, after the last round of trade talks ended with little progress. The U.S. imposed tariffs on $16 billion of Chinese goods on Aug. 24, with China issuing reciprocal tariffs and threatening to file a complaint with the World Trade Organization. Powell said during a speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium in Wyoming last Friday that "further, gradual" rate hikes were likely in the future, noting the economy is "strong" and able to withstand tighter monetary policy. His comments came despite President Donald Trump s criticism of higher borrowing costs as he said recently that he is not thrilled with the Fed s decision to hike rates. China's net gold imports via main conduit Hong Kong fell about 45 percent in July from the previous month amid lacklustre demand, data showed. Imports via Hong Kong fell to tonnes in July from tonnes in June, according to data from the Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department. Total gold imports via Hong Kong also plunged 45 percent to tonnes in July from tonnes in June. In June, China's net gold imports via Hong Kong jumped 40.3 percent month-on-month to their highest since March Technically now Gold is getting support at and below same could see a test of level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 30095, a move above could see prices testing Page 2

3 INT. GOLD$ Market View Daily Levels Open High Low Close Value Change % Change Resistance Support Outlook: Gold price managed to breach and attempts to confirm settling above it, which supports the continuation of our bullish overview in the upcoming period, which its next target located at , while holding above represents the most important condition for its continuation. Gold settled up as a weaker U.S. dollar and trade tensions boosted the precious metal. The dollar also eased on comments from the Federal Reserve chairman in support of a gradual approach to raising rates. Meanwhile, officials from China and the U.S. are expected to meet later this month to resume trade negotiations, after the last round of trade talks ended with little progress. The U.S. imposed tariffs on $16 billion of Chinese goods on Aug. 24, with China issuing reciprocal tariffs and threatening to file a complaint with the World Trade Organization. Powell said during a speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium in Wyoming last Friday that "further, gradual" rate hikes were likely in the future, noting the economy is "strong" and able to withstand tighter monetary policy. His comments came despite President Donald Trump s criticism of higher borrowing costs as he said recently that he is not thrilled with the Fed s decision to hike rates. China's net gold imports via main conduit Hong Kong fell about 45 percent in July from the previous month amid lacklustre demand, data showed. Imports via Hong Kong fell to tonnes in July from tonnes in June, according to data from the Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department. Total gold imports via Hong Kong also plunged 45 percent to tonnes in July from tonnes in June. In June, China's net gold imports via Hong Kong jumped 40.3 percent month-on-month to their highest since March Technically now Gold is getting support at and below same could see a test of level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at , a move above could see prices testing Page 3

4 Rupee dropped in yesterday s session as the dollar rose slightly yesterday after the statement by the Fed chair, Jerome Powell. On Friday, at the Jackson Hole Symposium, the chair reiterated his bullish views of the economy and emphasized on the need for more rate hikes. USDINR look weak with immediate support of previous swing high is at and below that key support lies at Therefore, if the pair penetrates below then it is likely to test the above mentioned support of levels. Alternatively, resistance will be a sustained above can see level like and USDINR Market View Daily Levels Open High Low Close Value Change % Change Margin Margin (Rs.) Volume Open Interest Cng in OI (%) Prev Value(Mln) 52 Week High 52 Week Low Resistance Support Spread SEP - AUG OCT - SEP Rupee plunged on selling by nationalized banks likely on behalf of oil importers and foreign banks. Fed Chairperson Jerome Powell's speech in Jackson Hole disappointed investors' expectations of some guidance on inflation accelerating in coming days. Powell re-affirmed gradual rate hike and that there was no risk of the economy overheating despite President Donald Trump's criticism of higher borrowing costs. However, his failure to signal that inflation would accelerate in the coming months was taken negatively by some dollar bulls who were expecting a more hawkish message. Weakness in rupee expected to boost earnings for technology companies and metals makers stand to gain as domestic prices depend on import parity and higher relaisation from exports. India s retail inflation rate eased in July, strengthening views that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will keep interest rates on hold at its review in October after raising them for a second straight meeting on August 1. In July, consumer prices rose 4.17 percent from a year earlier, compared with a downwardly revised 4.92 percent in June, the Statistics Ministry said. July was the ninth straight month in which inflation was higher than the RBI s medium-term target of 4 percent. India s trade deficit widened to a more than five year high of $18.02 billion in July, the trade ministry said, driven largely by a surge in oil imports. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -6.43% to settled at , now USDINR is getting support at and below same could see a test of level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at , a move above could see prices testing Page 4

5 Gold Spot 995 Gold Spot 999 Exch. Descr. Last* Exch. Descr. Last* CMDTY Gold Ahmedabad CMDTY Gold Ahmedabad CMDTY Gold Bangalore CMDTY Gold Bangalore CMDTY Gold Chennai CMDTY Gold Chennai CMDTY Gold Cochin CMDTY Gold Cochin CMDTY Gold Delhi CMDTY Gold Delhi CMDTY Gold Hyderabad CMDTY Gold Hyderabad CMDTY Gold Jaipur CMDTY Gold Jaipur CMDTY Gold Kolkata CMDTY Gold Mumbai CMDTY Gold Mumbai * Rates including GST * Rates including GST Silver Spot 999 Bullion Futures on MCX Exch. Descr. Last* Exch. Descr. Last CMDTY Silver Ahmedabad MCX GOLD 04AUG CMDTY Silver Bangalore MCX GOLD 05OCT CMDTY Silver Chennai MCX GOLD 05DEC CMDTY Silver Delhi MCX SILVER 05JUL CMDTY Silver Hyderabad MCX SILVER 05SEP CMDTY Silver Jaipur MCX SILVER 05DEC CMDTY Silver Kolkata CMDTY Silver Mumbai * Rates including GST Bullion Futures on DGCX Gold and Silver Fix Exch. Descr. Last Exch. Descr. Last DGCX GOLD 26SEP CMDTY Gold London AM FIX DGCX GOLD 28NOV CMDTY Gold London PM FIX DGCX GOLD QUANTO 27SEP CMDTY Silver London FIX DGCX GOLD QUANTO 29NOV DGCX SILVER 29AUG Gold / Silver Ratio DGCX SILVER 28NOV Exch. Descr. Last DGCX SILVER QUANTO 30AUG INTL. SPOT GOLD SILVER RATIO DGCX SILVER QUANTO 29NOV MCX MCX GOLD SILVER RATIO Page 5

6 Report is prepared for information purposes only. Kedia Stocks & Commodities Research Pvt Ltd. Mumbai. INDIA. Mobile: / info@kediacommodity.com URL: General Disclaimers: This Report is prepared and distributed by Kedia Stocks & Commodities Research Pvt Ltd. for information purposes only. The recommendations, if any, made herein are expression of views and/or opinions and should not be deemed or construed to be neither advice for the purpose of purchase or sale through KSCRPL nor any solicitation or offering of any investment /trading opportuni. These information / opinions / views are not meant to serve as a professional investment guide for the readers. No action is solicited based upon the information provided herein. Recipients of this Report should rely on information/data arising out of their own investigations. Readers are advised to seek independent professional advice and arrive at an informed trading/investment decision before executing any trades or making any investments. This Report has been prepared on the basis of publicly available information, internally developed data and other sources believed by KSCRPL to be reliable. IBJA and KSCRPL or its directors, employees, affiliates or representatives do not assume any responsibility for, or warrant the accuracy, completeness, adequacy and reliability of such information / opinions / views. While due care has been taken to ensure that the disclosures and opinions given are fair and reasonable, none of the directors, employees, affiliates or representatives of IBJA and KSCRPL shall be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental, consequential, punitive or exemplary damages, including lost profits arising in any way whatsoever from the information / opinions / views contained in this Report. The possession, circulation and/or distribution of this Report may be restricted or regulated in certain jurisdictions by appropriate laws. No action has been or will be taken by KSCRPL in any jurisdiction (other than India), where any action for such purpose(s) is required. Accordingly, this Report shall not be possessed, circulated and/ or distributed in any such country or jurisdiction unless such action is in compliance with all applicable laws and regulations of such country or jurisdiction. KSCRPL requires such recipient to inform himself about and to observe any restrictions at his own expense, without any liability to KSCRPL. Any dispute arising out of this Report shall be subject to the exclusive jurisdiction of the Courts in India. Page 6