Overview. Precious Metals

Transcription

1 Thursday, June 01, 2017 Overview Asian markets mixed after US markets fall Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI at 11 month low Offshore yuan jumps to seven month high Dollar falls, euro up and pound lower ahead of UK elections Precious Metals Precious metals are rebounding as US markets came under selling pressure and the dollar fell to six month lows. Political uncertainties also continue to underpin gold prices. The UK is due for a vote next week and speculation about an early election in Italy has gained ground. Latest polls suggest that Theresa May's Conservative Party may fall short of winning an overall majority of seats in the UK parliament which has led to a risk off sentiment. On the upside, June rate hike prospects remain near 88% and continue to cap precious metals. US consumer spending recorded its biggest increase in four months in April; rising 0.4% m/m and Personal income grew 0.4% in line with expectations. On the whole, we believe that gold and silver could consolidate in a higher range today and the focus will be on the NFP data due tomorrow for further triggers. Close %Chg. Precious metals Gold % Silver % WTI Crude oil % Brent Crude % Natural gas % Base metals LME COMEX Copper % Copper % Aluminium % Nickel % Lead % Zinc % Others DXY % US 10yr % CBOE VIX % Please Refer to Disclaimer at the end of the report Page 1

2 Base Metals Base metals have been trading range bound over the last couple of session except nickel which slid sharply yesterday. Better than expected China manufacturing data pushed supported copper prices. However, a private survey showed China's manufacturing activity unexpectedly contracted in May for the first time in 11 months to 49.6, below the 50-point mark. A continued drop in copper LME warehouse stocks have been supporting prices. Global aluminium producer has offered Japanese buyers a premium of $123 per tonne for July-September primary metal shipments, down 4% from the current quarter. Nickel prices have been dragged down by worries about oversupply and fears of tepid demand from steel mills, along with high LME warehouses stocks. Crude oil prices declined sharply yesterday as increasing output from Libya and Nigeria weighed on prices. Libyan output has touched 0.8 mbpd after technical issue at Sharara field was resolved. This led to total OPEC production increasing by 250,000 bpd in May to mbpd. The output of 11 member countries with output targets fell by million bpd, implying 95% compliance. Rising US production has already been capping prices at higher levels. US crude oil production is expected to average 9.3 mbpd this year and 10 mbpd next year as per EIA forecasts. US inventory data is due today and will be closely watched for details on gasoline demand and US oil production. The API reported a drawdown of 8.6 million barrels. In terms of price action, we expect oil prices to probably see a bounce back as they have managed to hold above $48 on the Nymex. Natural gas remains weak due to low seasonal demand. Speculative Longs Change WoW Gold Silver Copper Crude oil Nat gas EUR/USD DXY INVENTORIES Current W/W Chg. Units Crude oil MBbl Gasoline MBbl Distillate MBbl Natural gas TCF Base Metals Aluminium Copper Nickel Lead Zinc Precious metals LME MT SHFE w/w MT LME MT SHFE w/w MT LME MT SHFE w/w MT LME MT SHFE w/w MT LME MT SHFE w/w MT GOLD ETF MT Silver ETF MT MT- Metric Tonne, MBBL Million Barrels, BCF Billion Cubic Feet. Please Refer to Disclaimer at the end of the report Page 2

3 Agricultural Commodities Cardamom traded higher as investors extended their bets amid surge in physical demand for cardamom in domestic spot market. Further, insufficient supplies on restricted physical arrivals from major cardamom producing regions also added support to prices' uptrend. Coriander futures traded lower as participants cut down their bets on back of muted demand in domestic spot market. Further, rising arrivals from major producing belts also weighed on coriander futures. Mentha oil exhibited mixed trend as May contract declined on sluggish demand from major consuming industries in domestic spot market, while June contract gained on tight stocks position following restricted arrivals from major producing belts of Chandausi in Uttar Pradesh. Sugar closed flat due to good supplies and steady demand from physical market. Gov. has increase FRP of sugarcane by Rs 25 per quintal to Rs 255 for season beginning Oct. Sugarcane acreage in country was at 46.5 lakh hectares last week, higher than 43.9 lakh ha year ago. Moreover, government extended curbs on holding of sugar stocks by six months for sugar traders. Soyabean is under long liquidation and fell below MSP in key growing regions due to shifting in cropping patterns in coming Kharif season. Farmers are opting for cotton castor or groundnut. The country may export 15 lakh tonnes of soymeal during marketing year that runs from Oct. to Sept. Lower shipments from India will help South American countries like Brazil and Argentina to increase soymeal sales to Asian buyers like Vietnam Thailand Japan and Indonesia. This may prompt farmers to cut soybean cultivation and shift to other crops like cotton in upcoming sowing season. Commodity Month Price %Chg. Cardamom Jun % Castor Seed Jun % Cocud Jun % Cotton Jun % CPO Jun % Coriander Jun % Guar Gum Jun % Guar Seed Jun % Jeera Jun % Mentha Oil Jun % R M Seed Jun % Soyabean Jun % Soyoil Jun % Sugar Jul % Turmeric Jun % Wheat Jun % Commodity Expiry Price % Chg. Malaysian Palm Oil Jul % US Soybean Aug % US Soyoil Aug % US Soymeal Jul % ICE US Cotton Jul % China Cotton Jul % US Sugar Jun % Please Refer to Disclaimer at the end of the report Page 3

4 Level playing Sheet Commodity Exch. Expiry Close S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 Trend Conviction Intraday Range Gold MCX Aug Bullish Moderate Gold COMEX Jul Bullish High Silver MCX Jul Bearish Moderate Silver COMEX Jul Strong Low Crude MCX Jun Bearish Moderate Crude NYMEX Jul Bearish Moderate Nat Gas MCX Jun Bearish Moderate Copper MCX Jun Strong Low Zinc MCX Jun Bearish Moderate Lead MCX Jun Bearish Moderate Nickel MCX Jun Bearish Moderate Aluminium MCX Jun Bearish Moderate Commodity Exch. Expiry Close S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 Trend Conviction Intraday Range CARDAMOM NCDEX Jun Flat Moderate CASTOR SEED NCDEX Jun 4,228 4,123 4,175 4,246 4,298 4,369 Bearish Moderate COCUDAKL MCX Jun 1,790 1,754 1,772 1,786 1,804 1,818 Bearish Moderate Cotton NCDEX Jun 20,940 20,580 20,760 20,930 21,110 21,280 Bullish Moderate CPO NCDEX Jun Bearish Moderate DHANIYA NCDEX Jun 4,730 4,593 4,661 4,799 4,867 5,005 Bearish Moderate JEERA NCDEX Jun 17,630 17,130 17,380 17,540 17,790 17,950 Bearish Moderate Guar Seed NCDEX Jun 3,354 3,271 3,312 3,367 3,408 3,463 Bearish Moderate Guar Gum NCDEX Jun 7,248 7,062 7,155 7,270 7,363 7,478 Bearish Moderate MENTHA OIL MCX Jun Bearish Moderate R M Seed NCDEX Jun 3,483 3,451 3,467 3,478 3,494 3,505 Bearish Moderate Soyabean NCDEX Jun 2,696 2,659 2,678 2,691 2,710 2,723 Bearish Moderate SOYOIL MCX Jun Bearish Moderate SUGAR NCDEX Jul 3,750 3,749 3,749 3,750 3,750 3,751 Bearish Moderate TURMERIC NCDEX Jun 5,322 5,210 5,266 5,318 5,374 5,426 Bearish Moderate WHEAT NCDEX Jun 1,596 1,585 1,590 1,596 1,601 1,607 Bearish Moderate Please Refer to Disclaimer at the end of the report Page 4

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