Swing Trading Concepts & Edges
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1 Swing Trading Concepts & Edges Rob Hanna Co-Founder & VP of Research, InvestiQuant 9/16/ Copyright 2015 InvestiQuant 1
2 Disclaimer It should not be assumed that the methods, techniques, or indicators presented here will be profitable or that they will not result in losses. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. There is a high degree of risk in trading. Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not actually been executed, the results may have under- or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. 9/16/2015 2
3 What is Swing Trading? A short-term trading approach that looks to take advantage of market swings that typically last from 1-7 days. Most swing approaches will look to buy short-term weakness and sell short-term strength. Often traders will use the intermediate/long term trend to further filter opportunities. 9/16/ Copyright 2014 InvestiQuant 3
4 A Simple Swing Trading Approach Buy 5 Day Low & Sell 5 Day High 9/16/ Copyright 2015 InvestiQuant 4
5 Buy 5 Day Low & Sell 5 Day High 9/16/2015 Copyright 2014 InvestiQuant 5 5
6 A Simple Long-Term Trend Filter Doesn t Help 9/16/2015 Copyright 2015 InvestiQuant 6 6
7 Few trades, fewer days exposed to the market, bigger average wins, smaller average losses, and more total profits 9/16/2015 Copyright 2014 InvestiQuant 7 7
8 IQ Swing Trading Concepts Acceleration Momentum Seasonality 9/16/ Copyright 2014 InvestiQuant 8
9 Acceleration How fast is the market moving and from where? 9/16/ Copyright 2014 InvestiQuant 9
10 A Strong Move Down From A High No Edge A Strong Move Down From A Low Big Bullish Edge A Strong Move Down Within A Range Small Bullish Edge 9/16/2015 Copyright 2014 InvestiQuant 10 10
11 While Big Drop From A Low Point Suggests A Strong Bullish Edge, A Small Drop Does Not 9/16/2015 Copyright 2015 InvestiQuant 11 11
12 Acceleration Summary Both the magnitude of a move and the place that move is occurring make a difference in price action moving forward. 9/16/ Copyright 2014 InvestiQuant 12
13 Momentum How persistent has the move been over the last few days and weeks, how strong is the movement, and where are we trading in relation to the long-term trend? 9/16/ Copyright 2014 InvestiQuant 13
14 Persistent drop from high no edge Persistent drop to a new low bullish edge Persistent drop within a range in between (mild edge) 9/16/2015 Copyright 2014 InvestiQuant 14 14
15 Momentum Summary Like fast moves, persistent moves can provide an edge but should be examined within the context of the longer-term trend. 9/16/ Copyright 2014 InvestiQuant 15
16 Seasonality What long & short-term seasonal forces are in play, and how has the market performed during similar periods in the past? 9/16/ Copyright 2014 InvestiQuant 16
17 Seasonality Fed Days Fed Days have seen strong gains over the years. 9/16/ Copyright 2014 InvestiQuant 17
18 Seasonality Non-Fed Days All other days combined have managed very small gains. 9/16/ Copyright 2014 InvestiQuant 18
19 Seasonality Summary Certain days, times of the month, times of the year and other cycles can exert a seasonal influence on stock market prices. 9/16/ Copyright 2014 InvestiQuant 19
20 Acceleration & Seasonality Combo When price & seasonality-based edges combine it can make for a very strong setup. 9/16/ Copyright 2014 InvestiQuant 20
21 IQ Swing Guides 9/16/ Copyright 2014 InvestiQuant 21
22 IQ Swing Acceleration Ensemble (stand alone) 9/16/2015 Copyright 2014 InvestiQuant 22 22
23 IQ Swing Momentum Ensemble (stand alone) 9/16/2015 Copyright 2014 InvestiQuant 23 23
24 IQ Swing Seasonality Ensemble (stand alone) 9/16/2015 Copyright 2014 InvestiQuant 24 24
25 The average of all 3 approaches is better than any one of them on their own. 9/16/2015 Copyright 2014 InvestiQuant 25 25
26 Summary Swing traders look to take advantage of short-term market imbalances & price extremes. Many techniques can be used to swing trade, but most involve combining short-term overbought/oversold indicators with long-term trend. IQ utilizes 2 price-based concepts (Acceleration & Momentum) along with Seasonality. Combinations of edges often provide better forecasting information than any individual component. IQ Swing Edges can be used on their own, or as an additional input/filter for other systems. 9/16/ Copyright 2014 InvestiQuant 26
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