> In March the domestic money market volume increased mainly as a result of the rise in the repo-trade; interest rates remained at record lows.

Transcription

1 MARCH 213 No 4 / 213 > In March the domestic money market volume increased mainly as a result of the rise in the repo-trade; interest rates remained at record lows. > The euro with 4-month low against the dollar in March, following the concerns of the markets about the deal to rescue Cyprus and speculation about possible repercussion on other countries with fiscal problems in the eurozone. > In March the turnover of corporate bonds on BSE-Sofia AD increased substantially compared with February.

2 DEBT MARKET Benchmark yield curves in the euro area and annual yield (%) o/n depo 1w depo 1m depo 3m depo 12m bill 3y bond 5y bond 7y bond 1y bond instrument Benchmark yield curves in Bulgaria and annual yield (%) o/n depo 1w depo 1m depo 3m depo 12m bill 3y bond 5y bond 7y bond 1y bond instrument Bulgaria and euro area benchmark yield curves annual yield (%) Bulgaria euro area -1 o/n depo 1w depo 1m depo 3m depo 12m bill 3y bond 5y bond 7y bond 1y bond instrument Middle of Sofibid and Sofibor 2

3 Yields on EUR-denominated govt securities in Bulgaria and on the euro area curve annual yield (%) m depo 12m bill 2y bond 3y bond 4y bond 5y bond 6y bond 7y bond instrum ent 8y bond 9y bond 1y bond 15y bond BG domestic BG global euro area SOFIBOR and 3M T-bill issuance, January - March 213 (%) M SOFIBID 3M SOFIBOR 3M T-bill LEONIA BIR 1. MONEY MARKET Plamen Petrunov In March the money market activity increased substantially in (+359 2) Vladimir Tsonchev repo-deals. There was also a rise in deposit transactions. The (+359 2) domestic market prices remained at record lows. 3

4 6 Interbank Money Market, volumes (BGN mln) October 212 November 212 December 212 January 213 February 213 March 213 deposit deals repo deals The domestic money market monthly volume increased by 38.5 per cent to BGN million and returned to the levels from January. The rise was stronger in repo-deals by 68.2 per cent to BGN million, while deposit deals volume increased by 24.9 per cent to million. The monthly volume of the euromoney market term transactions decreased by 29.5 per cent and reached BGN million. The deposit deals volume in all currencies (EUR, USD, GBP and JPY) declined by 29.8 per cent to BGN million, only due to a 4 per cent drop in deposit deals in USD. The repo deals volume, which have a very small share in the market, increased by 1.4 per cent to BGN 39.6 million. Increase in domestic interbank volumes in March with a noticeable rise in the repo-deals and decline in the euromoney market turnover resulting entirely from a drop in the USD-denominated deposit deals Interbank Euromoney Market, volumes (BGN equivalent in mln) EUR EUR EUR USD USD USD Other Other Other January 213 February 213 March 213 January 213 deposit deals February 213 March 213 repo deals January 213 February 213 March 213 4

5 The banking system remained highly liquid and the average daily excess reserves in March reached BGN million, following BGN million in February (excess reserves were calculated taking into account a calendar month, and not the actual maintenance period from the 4 th of each month till the 3 rd of the next). There was not a single day in March with negative excess reserves for the system. The liquidity in the banking system remained high 1,8 1,6 excess reserves Interbank money market and excess reserves, March 213 (BGN mln) money market 1,4 1,2 1, Liquidity in the banking system is influenced every month by monetary flows through government securities (bills and bonds of the Ministry of Finance). In March there was a net outflow from banks of BGN million. Pension transfers led to an increase in resources by BGN 711. million. 5

6 3 Deposit Deals, March 213 (BGN mln) all deposit deals unsecured of which overnight secured 1.1. Interbank market: deposit lending and repotransactions Deposit lending maintained a prevailing share in the interbank money market volume (deposit lending and repodeals). For March this share was 61.8 per cent of the interbank transactions, following 68.5 per cent in February - due to the serious increase in the repo-deals volume. Unsecured market In March term unsecured deposit lending between market participants amounted to BGN million, and 85.8 per cent of these (BGN million) were overnight deals. This compares to an 82.4 per cent share (BGN million) in February. Looking into the maturity breakdown of the market there were still no deposit deals longer than 1 month in March. 6

7 Maturity breakdown of the unsecured interbank trades 1% 8% 6% 4% ` 2% % Mar'12 May'12 Jul'12 Sept'12 Nov'12 Jan'13 Mar'13 ON up to 1W above 1W up to 1M above 1M up to 3M above 3M 3 Unsecured Deposit Market, March 213 (BGN mln) overnight other Overnight Market Rates, March Effective overnight rate - unsecured deposit deals SOFIBID ON SOFIBOR ON

8 The monthly average interest rate of the overnight unsecured deposit lending in March increased to.2% after.1% in February. The monthly average of the LEONIA, a reference rate based on unsecured overnight deposit lending by a panel of banks, remained at.1% in March. Hence the size of the BNB base interest rate for April 213 was set at.1% - with no change for a third month in a roll. LEONIA moved in a narrow range of.1-.2% in the course of the month, and kept the spread with the analogous index reflecting the overnight levels of the euro area, EONIA, negative LEONIA EONIA LEONIA / EONIA, March The money market yield curve in March shifted slightly downwards, but only in the longest (more than 9 months) maturities, compared to February The end of quarter effect, but also the longer Easter weekend led to some increase in EONIA in the last day of the month The money market yield curve reflects the average value of SOFIBID and SOFIBOR ON SW 2W 3W 1M 2M 3M 4M 5M 6M 7M 8M 9M 1M 11M 12M 8

9 Secured market There were no secured deposit lending deals observed in March and the repo-deals share was 38.2 per cent of the total interbank money market transactions volume (BGN million). In February their share was 31.5 per cent (BGN million) BULGARIAN INTERBANK MONEY MONEY MARKET AND EUROMONEY MARKET DEALS BETWEEN BULGARIAN BANKS, MARCH 213 (in millions of the respective currencies) MARKETS: interbank money market euromoney market deals between Bulgarian banks deals in BGN deals in EUR deals in USD deals in other currencies value in equivalent in value in equivalent in value in equivalent in equivalent in equivalent in equivalent in millions of BGN millions of EUR millions of EUR millions of BGN millions of USD millions of BGN millions of EUR millions of BGN millions of EUR TYPES OF DEALS: unsecured deposit deals secured deposit deals repo of Bulgarian govt securities* outright purchases of short-term BGN Bulgarian govt securities outright purchases of long-term** BGN Bulgarian govt securities* outright purchases of long-term** forex Bulgarian govt securities* * at market value; for repos - only the security purchase (money lending) leg ** bonds of over 1 year in original maturity Source: BNB, from commercial banks' daily reports 1.2. Outright interbank purchases of securities on the secondary market On the interbank secondary market for government securities, the market value of the outright purchases in March reached BGN million, a decline by 47.4 per cent compared to February (BGN million). A minimal part of the deals was with the new 6-month issue (the only short term papers on the market). 9

10 Outright deals in Bulgarian government securities, March 213 (BGN mln) BGN-denominated securities up to 12M forex-denominated securities BGN-denominated securities over 12M On the euromarket in March the volume of outright purchases of government securities also declined and reached BGN 21.7 million, after BGN 54.5 million in February. 1

11 2. CAPITAL MARKET The following primary auctions of government securities were carried out by the Bulgarian National Bank as an agent of the Ministry of Finance in March: Boris Malinchev (+359 2) on 11 March for a batch of an issue BG (1Y6M government securities) with maturity date 9 July 223, at the amount of BGN 5 million and interest rate 4.%; for participation in the auction were admitted orders at the amount of BGN 1 55 ; the Ministry of Finance approved bids at the amount of BGN 5 million; - on 18 March for a batch of an issue BG (7Y government securities) with maturity date 16 January 22, at the amount of EUR 2 million and interest rate 3.5%; for participation in the auction were admitted orders at the amount of EUR ; the Ministry of Finance approved bids at the amount of EUR 2 million; - on 25 March for a batch of an issue BG (5Y government securities) with maturity date 23 January 218, at the amount of BGN 5 million; for participation in the auction were admitted orders at the amount of BGN 17 9 ; the Ministry of Finance approved bids at the amount of BGN 5 million. In March the Bulgarian Stock Exchange Sofia AD (BSE- Sofia) registered for trading on the bonds segment the following corporate bond issues: - 5Y bonds for EUR 4 million, issued by NURTS Bulgaria AD - Sofia, interest 3-month euribor + 5.5%, but at least 6%, issue date , 6-month interest payment, (stockexchange code NUHA); - 7Y bonds for EUR 5 million, issued by Technoimportexport AD - Sofia, interest 8.%, issue date , 6-month interest payment, (stock-exchange code 1TXA). 11

12 The monthly secondary market stock-exchange turnover of corporate bonds nearly doubled in March, amounting to BGN 22.1 million (a daily average of BGN 1.1 million) after BGN 12 million in February. More significant turnover reached the bond issues of Health and Wellness SIPC, Astera I EAD and Gips AD. Out of stock exchange were concluded deals at the amount of BGN 2.4 million. 2 BSE transactions with bonds, March 213 (date T; BGN mln) Bonds Segment Bonds / OTC The prices of EUR-denominated 217 globals kept staying under the 19% level. The USD-denominated 215 globals prices went above the 113% mark. On the secondary market the price of the compensation instruments moved within the interval of BGN.48 per item at the beginning of the month and BGN.44 at the month s end. The compensation instruments segment made a multifold increase, amounting to BGN 2.8 million (a daily average of BGN.13 million) compared with the BGN.6 million in February. 2 BSE transactions with compensatories, March 213 (date T; BGN thousand) Compens.instruments Segment compens.instruments / OTC privatis.segment (comp) 12

13 145 BG4 and SOFIX ASSET MARKETS NET ASSETS: BG SOFIX (right scale) equity 88 Real Estate Prices (BGN per sq. m.) GROSS ASSETS: real estate (National Statistical Institute quarterly data) Gold (XAU/BGN) commodities forex FOREX (USD/BGN)

14 EQUITY CAPITAL (NET ASSETS) Boris Malinchev (+359 2) MARKETS Premium Equities Segment TRADE IN SECURITIES REGISTERED ON THE BSE-SOFIA : STOCK-EXCHANGE AND OTC TURNOVER (in millions of BGN) March 213 MAIN MARKET ALTERNATIVE MARKET Standard Bonds Segment UCIT's Compensatio Structured Subscription Equities Equities Segment n Instruments Products Rights Segment Segment Segment Segment Segment Special Purpose Vehicles Segment municip corporate al bonds bonds Special Purpose Vehicles Segment Trade in equities not registered on the BSE- Sofia of public of nonpublic companies companies BSE trading of which: regular deals privatis. segment deals (cash) Privatis. Segm. (compensative)* Initial Public Offering Segment* OTC trading (purchases and sales, repo, tender purchases, redemption, registration etc.)** Source: BSE-Sofia daily reports * Not included in the above totals ** reported through BSE trading platform The Bulgarian Stock Exchange Sofia (BSE-Sofia) monthly turnover in March increased by 3%, amounting to BGN 9.5 million (a daily average of BGN 4.4 million) after BGN 87.8 million in Febryary. More significant turnover reached the trade in shares of TB Korporativna targovska banka AD (BGN 54 million) and ELARG Fond za Zemedelska Zemya SIPC /in liquidation/ on the Alternative market. The turnover in deals concluded off-stock-exchange (reported through the stockexchange platform) was BGN 92 million. More significant volume reached the deals with the equity in Bulgarian Telecommunication Company AD (BGN 41 million). BSE transactions with shares, March 213 (date T; BGN mln) AltM/SPV/OTC AltM/SPV AltM /Equities/OTC AltM/Equities priv atis.(bgn) SPV/OTC SPV Standard/OTC Standard Equities Premium/OTC Premium Equities

15 After a shaky start at the beginning of March the main index of the equity prices of the Bulgarian stock exchange market showed a stable behaviour differing from the fluctuating trend of the of the indices of the leading European stock market (DAX) and of the stock market of Romania (BET). DAX, SOFIX and BET, March DAX BET SOFIX (right scale) BGTR3, BGREIT and CGIX in March 213 г BG REIT CGIX BGTR 3 15

16 Pension fund price indices, March 213 (1 July 24 BGN 1) VOLIDEX PROFIDEX UNIDEX Prices of the bank shares in Bulgaria, eurozone and emerging markets, January - March BANKS BSE BANKS EMU BANKS EM BG4 and the equities prices of Bulgarian banks, listed on the BSE - Sofia, March BG BANKS BSE (right scale) 16

17 The index of the equity prices of the banks listed on the BSE- Sofia showed certain fluctuations during the month, but in general followed the trend of the emerging countries banks, being more positive than the trend of eurozone banks indices. There were no placements of shares or bonds on the IPO segment of the BSE-Sofia in March BSE - Initial Public Offering Segment, March 213 (date T; BGN thousand) shares rights/shares bonds 3. FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET The dollar rises against the euro in March, reaching a fourmonth high, due to increased optimism about the future of the U.S. economy. This is prompted by the data on unexpected decline in applications for unemployment benefits that reach 5 - years low, and by a shrinking current account deficit in the fourth quarter of 212. On the other hand, the decline of the single currency is also influenced by the ongoing political crisis in Italy, and the news that the rescue plan for Cyprus includes tax on the deposits, as a ground to get EUR 1 billion assistance. The Cyprus Parliament votes "against" the controversial tax while the markets are under pressure, given the potential possibility for Cyprus to shift to countries with fiscal problems, such as Spain and Italy. The euro manages to regain some of the ground in the middle of the month, after it becomes clear that the ECB will provide liquidity of the Cyprus banks. Despite the hopes that the island nation would be able to meet the conditions for aid, 28.3 Lubomir Tonev (+359 2) Pavlina Babunova (+359 2)

18 the doubts predominate, that the country will not avoid a tax on deposits. The official exchange rate of the lev against the dollar continues the upward trend of the previous month throughout March. The minimum value of the dollar against the lev for March is BGN registered on , while the dollar is stronger against the lev on 27.3., when it reaches BGN for USD 1. The official average exchange rate of the dollar against the lev for March is BGN , about BGN.45 higher than the average rate for the previous month. 1.6 Daily BNB reference exchange rate for the USD, March 213 (BGN per USD 1)

19 USD mln traded between banks sold to customers average rate for sales to customers Daily USD turnover and exchange rates of banks, March 213 SPOT The total turnover of the forex market (gross sum of all purchases and sales reporting entities the BNB and commercial banks) in March decreases compared with the previous month and reaches EUR ,5 million. The decrease in turnover, compared to the previous month is about EUR 2 751,6 million. The average daily turnover is EUR 2 187,9 million and decreases vis-à-vis the turnover of the previous month. The decrease in turnover is realised in segments spot trade between BNB and the banks and also interbank trade (without BNB), while spot trade between the banks and their customers increases for a consecutive month. The foreign exchange trade between the BNB and the banks in March amounts to EUR 2 87,3 million, and compared to the previous month the turnover decreases by EUR 1 55,5 million. For a consecutive month the BNB is a net seller of foreign currency to the banks with a negative balance of EUR 173,6 million. The Central Bank is a net buyer of foreign exchange in transactions with budgetary organisations, with positive balance of EUR 23.7 million bought from customers average rate for purchases from customers average interbank rate BGN per USD 1 19

20 Foreign exchange trading between banks, March 212 to March 213 (in mln of EUR) SPOT March-13 February-13 January-13 December-12 November-12 October-12 September-12 August-12 July-12 June-12 May-12 April-12 March Monthly EUR trading between BNB and banks, March 212 to March 213(EUR mln)spot March-13 February-13 January-13 December-12 November-12 October-12 September-12 August-12 July-12 June-12 May-12 April-12 March bought from banks sold to banks net. 2

21 EUR exchange rate, March 213 (BGN per EUR 1) BNB interbank banks from customers banks to customers 14 Daily EUR turnover of banks, March 213 (EUR mln) SPOT traded between banks bought from customers sold to customers The Interbank spot trading without the participation of BNB in March decreases significantly, compared to the previous month and reaches EUR 89,3million. The turnover between the banks and their final customers in February increases and reaches EUR 3 912,6 million. As in 21

22 the previous month the banks sell more foreign currency to their customers than they buy from them, by EUR 263,4 million Foreign exchange trading of banks with customers - total, March 213 (in mln of EUR) SPOT bought from customers sold to customers net Foreign exchange trading of banks with nonresidents, March 213 (in mln of EUR) SPOT bought from nonresidents sold to nonresidents net 22

23 The financial institutions registered in the Central Bank under Art. 3, Para 2 of the Law on Credit Institutions and reporting daily to the BNB foreign currency trading against levs in the country slightly decrease their turnover in March compared with the previous month. They buy foreign currency at the amount of EUR 92,6 million and sell foreign currency equal to EUR 87,2 million. Foreign exchange market March 213 SPOT (in mln of EUR) Purchases Sales Balance Interbank market (commercial banks) (Commercial) banks with customers of which: with nonresidents BNB total BNB with banks of which: *with banks - SPOT *with banks - TOM *with banks - TODAY *with banks - NOTES... BNB transactions with budgetary organisations BNB notes operations at counters Source: BNB, from banks and BNB s daily reports Currency structure of forex trading for some participants, March 213 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % interbank (without BNB); 2-banks with customers; 3-forex trading of financial institutions Others USD EUR 23

24 Forex swaps and forwards in EUR terms (estimate) FX swap and forward transactions - banks with final customers (in mln of EUR) Purchases Sales Balance March of which: with nonresidents FX structure (percentage) EUR Others Interbank FX swap and forward transactions banks (in mln of EUR) Purchases Sales Balance March FX structure (percentage) EUR USD The figures for foreign exchange swap deals include both the sales of foreign currecies for BGN and the subsequent purchase operations. Source: BNB, from banks daily reports TENDENCIES Short-term expectations: the interbank money market to maintain the record low interest rate levels and relatively small volumes; the SOFIX to move within the interval of points; USD/BGN to move within BGN 1, 49-1, 54 in April. 24