> The money market turnover registered a 20-month high. > The USD with one-month high against the EUR at the beginning of July.

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1 JULY 213 No 9 / 213 > The money market turnover registered a 2-month high. > The USD with one-month high against the EUR at the beginning of July. > The Growth of the main index SOFIX (above 4%) continued in July accompanied with relatively low trade turnover in shares on the BSE-Sofia.

2 DEBT MARKET Benchmark yield curves in the euro area.213 and annual yield (%) o/n depo 1w depo 1m depo 3m depo 12m bill instrument 3y bond 5y bond 7y bond 1y bond Benchmark yield curves in Bulgaria.213 and annual yield (%) o/n depo 1w depo 1m depo 3m depo 12m bill instrument 3y bond 5y bond 7y bond 1y bond Bulgaria and euro area benchmark yield curves annual yield (%) Bulgaria euro area -1 o/n depo 1w depo 1m depo 3m depo 12m bill 3y bond 5y bond 7y bond 1y bond instrument Middle of Sofibid and Sofibor 2

3 Yields on EUR-denominated govt securities in Bulgaria and on the euro area curve annual yield (%) m depo 12m bill 2y bond 3y bond 4y bond 5y bond 6y bond 7y bond 8y bond 9y bond 1y bond 15y bond BG domestic BG global euro area instrument SOFIBOR and 3M T-bill issuance, January - July 213 (%) MONEY MARKET M SOFIBID 3M SOFIBOR 3M T-bill LEONIA BIR In July the interbank money market volume increased for a third month in a row, reaching levels lastly seen in October 211. Interest rates remained unchanged at record lows. Plamen Petrunov (+359 2) Vladimir Tsonchev (+359 2)

4 7 Interbank Money Market, volumes (BGN mln) February 213 March 213 April 213 May 213 June 213 July 213 deposit deals repo deals The monthly volume of the domestic money market increased by 33.1 per cent to BGN million. The deposit deals volume rose by 33.4 per cent to BGN million, and the repo-deals volume gained 32.6 per cent, climbing to BGN million. The monthly volume of the euromoney market term transactions increased as well, by 2. per cent, and reached BGN million. The deposit deals volume in all currencies (EUR, USD and GBP) rose by 2. per cent to BGN million. The repo deals volume, which remained negligibly small, increased by 26.2 per cent to BGN 23.9 million. Consecutive increase in domestic interbank volumes - in the deposit lending deals, as well as, in the repo-deals and a rise in the euromoney market turnover 3 Interbank Euromoney Market, volumes (BGN equivalent in mln) EUR EUR EUR USD USD USD Other Other Other May 213 June 213 July 213 May 213 June 213 July 213 May 213 June 213 July 213 deposit deals repo deals 4

5 The banking system remained highly liquid. Тhe average daily excess reserves in July reached BGN million, following BGN million in June (excess reserves were calculated taking into account a calendar month, and not the actual maintenance period from the 4 th of each month till the 3 rd of the next). There was only one day throughout the month with negative excess reserves for the system, which came mainly from regular transfers to the budget. The liquidity in the banking system remained substantial 1,6 1,4 excess reserves Interbank money market and excess reserves, July 213 (BGN mln) money market 1,2 1, Liquidity in the banking system is also influenced every month by: (1) monetary flows through government securities (bills and bonds of the Ministry of Finance), which in July resulted in a net inflow to banks of BGN 83.2 million; and (2) pension transfers, which in July led to an increase in resources by BGN 77.5 million. 5

6 Deposit Deals, July 213 (BGN mln) all deposit deals unsecured of which overnight secured 1.1. Interbank market: deposit lending and repotransactions Deposit lending maintained a prevailing share in the interbank money market volume (deposit lending and repodeals), as for July this share remained stable reaching 67. per cent of the interbank transactions, following 66.9 per cent in June. Unsecured market In July term unsecured deposit lending between market participants amounted to BGN million and 87.9 per cent of these (BGN million) were overnight deals. This share slightly increased compared to June, where 86. per cent (BGN million) of the deals were overnight. 6

7 Maturity breakdown of the unsecured interbank trades 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % ` Jul'12 Sep'12 Nov'12 Jan'13 Mar'13 May'13 Jul'13 ON up to 1W above 1W up to 1M above 1M up to 3M above 3M 3 Unsecured Deposit Market, July 213 (BGN mln) overnight other

8 The monthly average interest rate of the overnight unsecured deposit lending in July remained at.2%. The monthly average of the LEONIA, a reference rate based on the unsecured overnight deposit lending by a panel of banks remained as well at.2% in July. Hence the size of the BNB base interest rate for August 213 was set again at.2%. 2.7 Overnight Market Rates, July Effective overnight rate - unsecured deposit deals SOFIBID ON SOFIBOR ON LEONIA EONIA LEONIA / EONIA, July

9 The money market yield curve consolidated, after a period of gradual decline mainly in the longer maturities The money market yield curve reflects the average value of SOFIBID and SOFIBOR ON SW 2W 3W 1M 2M 3M 4M 5M 6M 7M 8M 9M 1M 11M 12M Secured market There were no secured deposit lending deals in July and the repo-deals share was 33. per cent of the total interbank money market transactions volume (BGN million). In June their share was 33.1 per cent (BGN million). BULGARIAN INTERBANK MONEY MONEY MARKET AND EUROMONEY MARKET DEALS BETWEEN BULGARIAN BANKS, JULY 213 (in millions of the respective currencies) MARKETS: interbank money market euromoney market deals between Bulgarian banks deals in BGN deals in EUR deals in USD deals in other currencies value in equivalent in value in equivalent in value in equivalent in equivalent in equivalent in equivalent in millions of BGN millions of EUR millions of EUR millions of BGN millions of USD millions of BGN millions of EUR millions of BGN millions of EUR TYPES OF DEALS: unsecured deposit deals secured deposit deals repo of Bulgarian govt securities* outright purchases of short-term BGN Bulgarian govt securities outright purchases of long-term** BGN Bulgarian govt securities* outright purchases of long-term** forex Bulgarian govt securities* * at market value; for repos - only the security purchase (money lending) leg ** bonds of over 1 year in original maturity Source: BNB, from commercial banks' daily reports 9

10 1.2. Outright interbank purchases of securities on the secondary market On the interbank secondary market for government securities, the market value of the outright purchases of all maturities in July reached BGN million (an increase of 5.7 per cent compared to June). Within these, the trade with the only short term (6-month) bill hardly reached BGN 15. million (following BGN million in June). 6 Outright deals in Bulgarian government securities, July 213 (BGN mln) BGN-denominated securities up to 12M forex-denominated securities BGN-denominated securities over 12M On the euromoney market in July the volume of outright purchases of government securities declined and reached BGN 42. million, after BGN 57.7 million in June. 1

11 2. CAPITAL MARKET The following primary auctions of government securities were Boris Malinchev (+359 2) carried out by the Bulgarian National Bank as an agent of the Ministry of Finance in July: - on 1 July for a batch of issue BG (3Y government securities) with maturity date 3 January 216, at the amount of BGN 35 million and interest rate 1.5%; for participation in the auction were admitted orders at the amount of BGN ; the Ministry of Finance approved bids at the amount of BGN 35 million; - on 22 July for a batch of issue BG (1Y6M government securities) with maturity date 9 July 223, at the amount of BGN 59 million and interest rate 4.%; for participation in the auction were admitted orders at the amount of BGN 58 4 ; the Ministry of Finance did not approve the bids. In July the Bulgarian Stock Exchange Sofia AD (BSE-Sofia) registered for trading on the bonds segment the following corporate bond issues: - 3Y bonds for EUR 1.4 million, issued by Elana New corporate bond issues were registered for trade on BSE in July holding AD Sofia, interest 7.%, issue date , 3-month interest payment, (stockexchange code 9IQB); - 5Y bonds for BGN 5 million, issued by Formoplast AD - Kardjali, interest 6.5%, issue date , 6- month interest payment, (stock-exchange code 4F8A); - 8Y bonds for BGN 2.4 million, issued by FairPlay Properties SIPC - Sofia, interest 3M Euribor + 55 basis points but not less than 6.5%, issue date , 6-month interest payment, (stockexchange code 6F3B). The monthly secondary market stock-exchange turnover of corporate bonds marked a multifold decrease in July, 11

12 amounting to BGN 5.4 million (a daily average of BGN.2 million) after BGN 51.5 million in June. Out of stock exchange were concluded deals to the amount of BGN 3.8 million. 3 BSE transactions with bonds, July 213 (date T; BGN mln) Bonds Segment Bonds / OTC The prices of EUR-denominated 217 globals went up to the 17% level. The USD-denominated 215 globals prices went under the 11% mark. On the secondary market the price of the compensation instruments remained relatively stable during the whole month being on the level of BGN.48. The compensation instruments segment made a twofold decrease, amounting to BGN.6 million (a daily average of BGN.3 million) compared with the BGN 1.2 million in June. 2 BSE transactions with compensatories, July 213 (date T; BGN thousand) Compens.instruments Segment compens.instruments / OTC privatis.segment (comp)

13 BG4 and SOFIX 55 5 ASSET MARKETS BG SOFIX (right scale) NET ASSETS: equity GROSS ASSETS: real estate Real Estate Prices (BGN per sq. m.) (National Statistical Institute quarterly data) Gold (XAU/BGN) commodities FOREX (USD/BGN) forex

14 EQUITY CAPITAL (NET ASSETS) Boris Malinchev (+359 2) MARKETS Premium Equities Segment DEALING IN SECURITIES REGISTERED ON THE BSE-SOFIA : STOCK-EXCHANGE AND OTC TURNOVER (in millions of BGN) JULY 213 MAIN MARKET Bonds Segment Standard Equities Segment Special Purpose Vehicles Segment municipal bonds corporate bonds UCIT's Compensatio Segment n Instruments Segment Structured Products Segment Subscription Rights Segment ALTERNATIVE MARKET Equities Special Segment Purpose Vehicles Segment Trade in equities not registered on the BSE- Sofia of public companies of nonpublic companies BSE deals of which: regular deals privatis. segment deals (cash) Privatis. Segm. (compensative)* Initial Public Offering Segment* OTC deals (purchases and sales, repo, tender purchases, redemption, registration etc.)** Source: BSE-Sofia daily reports * Not included in the above totals ** reported through BSE trading platform The Bulgarian Stock Exchange Sofia (BSE-Sofia) monthly turnover in July increased by 2%, amounting to BGN 37.9 million (a daily average of BGN 1.6 million) after BGN 34.8 million in June. More significant turnover reached the trade in shares of Kaolin AD, TB Korporativna targovska banka AD, Sintetika AD and Sopharma AD. The turnover in deals concluded off-stock-exchange (reported through the stockexchange platform) was BGN 8.5 million BSE transactions with shares,july 213 (date T; BGN mln) AltM/SPV/OTC AltM/SPV AltM /Equities/OTC AltM/Equities priv atis.(bgn) SPV/OTC SPV Standard/OTC Standard Equities Premium/OTC Premium Equities

15 In June the main index of the equity prices of the Bulgarian stock exchange market SOFIX (increase by 4.1%) showed upward movement with some fluctuations during the month, similar in general to the behaviour of the index DAX (increase by 4%) and the index BET (increase by 4.3%). DAX, SOFIX and BET, July DAX BET SOFIX (right scale) BGTR3, BGREIT and CGIX in July 213 г BG REIT CGIX BGTR 3 15

16 Pension fund price indices, July 213 (1 July 24 BGN 1) VOLIDEX PROFIDEX UNIDEX Prices of the bank shares in Bulgaria, eurozone and emerging markets, January - July BG4 and the equities prices of Bulgarian banks, listed on the BSE - Sofia, July BANKS BSE BANKS EMU BANKS EM BG4 BANK S BSE (right 16

17 The index of the equity prices of the banks listed on the BSE- Sofia showed certain fluctuations during the month, but in general followed the trend of the emerging countries banks and the movement of eurozone banks indices. There were no placements of shares or bonds on the IPO segment of the BSE-Sofia in July. 1 BSE - Initial Public Offering Segment, July 213 (date T; BGN thousand) shares rights/shares bonds 3. FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET The USD reached a one-month high against the EUR at the beginning of July, after signs of improvement in the U.S. Lubomir Tonev (+359 2) Pavlina Babunova (+359 2) economy, restrained speculation that the Fed would reduce soon the size of the programme to stimulate the economy. The decline of the euro was influenced by the growing political crisis in Portugal, and also by spreading speculation that Greece didn t meet the conditions for receiving the third package of bailout. The single currency fell also against the dollar after the press conference of the president of the ECB, during which he said that eurozone interest rates will remain low for an extended period, identifying as low the risks to the European economy. In mid-month the euro managed to recover some of the losses, supported by information that Greece will be able to negotiate with foreign creditors for the last tranche of the bailout and the news of improvement in the political situation in Portugal. At the end of the month the 17

18 dollar fell against the euro after weak data about housing construction in the U.S. increased speculation that the Fed will not hurry to cut stimulus. The trend of increase of the course of the dollar against the leva from the end of the preceding month, continued to the end of the first ten days of July, when on 1 July was registered a maximum value of the dollar at the rate of BGN 1, Subsequently the dollar gradually decreased and reached a minimum value on 3 July at the rate of BGN 1, The average rate for the month was BGN 1,49544, about BGN,1 higher than the average rate in June. 1.6 Daily BNB reference exchange rate for the USD, July 213 (BGN per USD 1)

19 USD mln traded between banks sold to customers average rate for sales to customers Daily USD turnover and exchange rates of banks, July 213 SPOT The total turnover of the forex market (gross sum of all purchases and sales reporting entities) in July was stable, within the limits EUR 41 billion. In July the turnover reached EUR 41428,4 million, and compared to the previous month decreased by about EUR 287,9 million The average daily turnover is EUR 181,2 million and has also decreased compared to the average turnover of the previous month. The decrease in turnover is realised in the biggest segment of the foreign exchange market: the trade between BNB and the banks, while in the other two main segments the trade between the banks and their customers and interbank trade (without the participation of the central bank), the turnover increased, compared to the previous month. The foreign currency trade between the BNB and the banks in July reached EUR 18144,5 million and compared to the previous month decreased by EUR 437,1 million. As in the previous month, there was an almost perfect parity between purchases and sales of exchanged currency by the banks, and the BNB unlike in June is a net seller of exchanged currency to the banks with a minimum negative balance of EUR 14,5 million. The central bank is a net buyer of foreign bought from customers average rate for purchases from customers average interbank rate BGN per USD 1 19

20 exchange in non-cash transactions with budgetary organisations and net seller of foreign exchange in cash transactions (on the central bank counters) with individuals and budgetary organisations. Foreign exchange trading between banks, July 212 to July 213 (in mln of EUR) SPOT July-13 June-13 May-13 April-13 March-13 February-13 January-13 December-12 November-12 October-12 September-12 August-12 July Monthly EUR trading between BNB and banks, July 212 to July 213(EUR mln)spot July-13 June-13 May-13 April-13 March-13 February-13 January-13 December-12 November-12 October-12 September-12 August-12 July bought from banks sold to banks net 2

21 EUR exchange rate, July 213 (BGN per EUR 1) BNB interbank banks from customers banks to customers Daily EUR turnover of banks, July 213 (EUR mln) SPOT traded between banks bought from customers sold to customers The interbank spot trading without participation of the BNB in July almost doubled, compared to the previous month, reaching EUR 253,1 million. 21

22 The turnover between the banks and their final customers in July reached EUR 4446,9 million, some EUR 433,7 million more than the previous month. Unlike to the previous months the banks bought more foreign currency from their customers than they sold from them Foreign exchange trading of banks with customers - total, July 213 (in mln of EUR) SPOT bought from customers sold to customers net Foreign exchange trading of banks with nonresidents, July 213 (in mln of EUR) SPOT bought from nonresidents sold to nonresidents net

23 The financial institutions registered in the Central Bank under Art. 3, Para 2 of the Law on Credit Institutions and reporting daily to the BNB foreign currency trading against levs in the country increased their turnover in July compared to previous month. They buy foreign currency to the amount of EUR 132,9 million and sell foreign currency equal to EUR 127,3 million. Foreign exchange market July 213 SPOT (in mln of EUR) Purchases Sales Balance Interbank market (commercial banks) (Commercial) banks with customers of which: with nonresidents BNB total BNB with banks of which: *with banks - SPOT *with banks - TOM *with banks - TODAY *with banks - NOTES... BNB transactions with budgetary organisations BNB notes operations at counters Source: BNB, from banks and BNB s daily reports Currency structure of forex trading for some participants, July 213 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % interbank (without BNB); 2-banks with customers; 3-forex trading of financial institutions Others USD EUR 23

24 Forex swaps and forwards in EUR terms (estimate) FX swap and forward transactions - banks with final customers (in mln of EUR) Purchases Sales Balance July of which: with nonresidents FX structure (percentage) EUR USD Interbank FX swap and forward transactions banks (in mln of EUR) Purchases Sales Balance July FX structure (percentage) EUR USD The figures for foreign exchange swap deals include both the sales of foreign currecies for BGN and the subsequent purchase operations. Source: BNB, from banks daily reports TENDENCIES Short-term expectations: the interbank money market to maintain the record low interest rate levels; the SOFIX to move within the interval of points; USD/BGN to move within BGN 1, 45-1, 5 in August. 24

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