Scandi Standard (SCST SS) Q Presentation 5 November 2018

Transcription

1 Scandi Standard (SCST SS) Q Presentation 5 November 2018 Revenue by category Chilled 55% Frozen 19% Ready to eat 18% Other 8% Revenue by channel Retail 68% Food service 15% Export 9% Industry 3% Other 5% Revenues per country Sweden 29% Denmark 31% Norway 16% Ireland 20% Finland 4%

2 Forward looking statements This presentation contains various forward-looking statements that reflect management s current views with respect to future events and financial and operational performance. The words believe, expect, anticipate, intend, may, plan, estimate, should, could, aim, target, might, or, in each case, their negative, or similar expressions identify certain of these forward-looking statements. Others can be identified from the context in which the statements are made. These forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors, which are in some cases beyond the Company s control and may cause actual results or performance to differ materially from those expressed or implied from such forward-looking statements. These risks include but are not limited to the Company s ability to operate profitably, maintain its competitive position, to promote and improve its reputation and the awareness of the brands in its portfolio, to successfully operate its growth strategy and the impact of changes in pricing policies, political and regulatory developments in the markets in which the Company operates, and other risks. The information and opinions contained in this document are provided as at the date of this presentation and are subject to change without notice. No representation or warranty (expressed or implied) is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein. Accordingly, none of the Company, or any of its principal shareholders or subsidiary undertakings or any of such person s officers or employees accepts any liability whatsoever arising directly or indirectly from the use of this document. 2

3 Highlights Q % growth in revenues (proforma) - All geographic segments contributed - 3% growth in local currency Adj. EBIT MSEK 100 (94 (2) ) - Improvements in Norway, Ireland and Finland - Margin pressure in Sweden and Denmark MSEK 54m quarterly NIBD increase - Positive net cash flow before consolidation effect from Rokkedahl merger (MSEK 95m) 33% increase in adj. EPS Full market recovery in Sweden during Q3 MSEK Q Q LTM 2017 Net sales 2,263 1,825 8,692 7,101 Adj. EBITDA Adj. EBITA Adj. EBIT Proforma net sales 2,263 2,082 8,692 8,207 Proforma adj. EBIT Proforma adj. EBIT margin 4.4% 4.5% 4.4% 4.6% Op. cash flow* NIBD -2,093-1,932-2,093-1,886 EPS (reported) EPS adj. (1) Net cash flow per share ROCE 10.5% 8.2% 10.5% 11.1% 1) Net cash flow excluding dividend and acquisitions Note: (2) Proforma 3

4 Quarterly development - Group (proforma) Large price and cost movements in the quarter Modest volume increase across the group Price increases to offset raw material increases Positive price/mix in the quarter Some cost inflation in the quarter Stable group development Adj EBIT Q Volume Price/Mix COGS OPEX Depr Currency Adj EBIT Q Sweden - Large impact from stock clearance Denmark - Impacted by large market investments/costs Norway - Best in class margins Ireland - Strong performance Finland - Another step towards break even Adj EBIT Q Sweden Denmark Norway Ireland Finland Other Adj EBIT Q

5 Product categories and sales channels (pro forma) Quarterly growth evenly spread across categories - Ready to eat segment doubled in last four years - Start-up of new Farre line to boost growth going forward - Frozen segment inflated by inventory clearance in Sweden - Segment growth positively impacted by weaker SEK Ingredients 1% Ready-to-eat 18% (+13%) 19% (+15%) Frozen Other 7% 55% (+12%) Chilled Foodservice Strong growth in both Retail and Food Service - All countries contributed to sales growth 15% (+9%) 3% (+18%) Industry 9% (+3%) Export 68% (+14%) 5% Other Retail Note: Share of group sales, category/channel q/q growth in parenthesis 5

6 Sweden Market recovery, still impacted by stock clearance 5% increase in net sales - Strong improvement in demand for fresh products - Growth in Ready to Eat category Margins impacted by frozen inventory clearance - Still large frozen inventories to be cleared during Q4 Non-recurring items of MSEK 11 - Discontinuation of pilot plant within hatching Underlying fresh market currently fully recovered - Expect reinstatement of more normalised margins from 2019 MSEK Q Q LTM 2017 Total revenue ,617 2,557 Adj. EBITDA Depreciation Adj. EBITA Amortisation Adj. EBIT Non-recurrings items EBIT Adj. EBITDA margin 8.0% 9.2% 8.1% 8.9% Adj. EBITA margin 5.2% 6.3% 5.2% 5.9% Adj. EBIT margin 5.1% 6.3% 5.1% 5.9% 6

7 Denmark Market investments and cost pressure 12% revenue growth (3% in local currency) - Continues to be driven by Retail and Ready to Eat Reduced margin - Investments in sales and marketing - Some open exposures to raw material increases Positive development for De Danske Familiegårde - Already reached 14% of domestic retail sales - Expecting positive contribution from 2019 MSEK Q Q LTM 2017 Total revenue ,723 2,529 Adj. EBITDA Depreciation Adj. EBITA Amortisation Profit fr Associates 2-2 Adj. EBIT Non-recurrings items EBIT Adj. EBITDA margin 5.9% 7.6% 5.4% 7.2% Adj. EBITA margin 3.7% 5.3% 4.4% 4.7% Adj. EBIT margin 3.9% 5.3% 4.3% 4.6% Successful completion of MSEK 150m investment - Source for Ready to Eat growth in coming years Merger of high end operations in Denmark - Rokkedahl Foods (organic and free range) 7

8 Norway Strong performance 7% revenue increase - Flat development in local currency - Rationalised food service range Strong margins Most profitable geographic segment - Successful investments - Best practice transfer - Strengthened product offering MSEK Q Q LTM 2017 Total revenue ,500 1,483 Adj. EBITDA Depreciation Adj. EBITA Amortisation Adj. EBIT Non-recurrings items EBIT Adj. EBITDA margin 11.6% 10.3% 11.5% 10.8% Adj. EBITA margin 8.8% 7.6% 8.7% 8.2% Adj. EBIT margin 7.8% 6.5% 7.7% 7.2% Good illustration of our business potential 8

9 Ireland Strong performance, integration according to plan 13% revenue growth (4% in local currency) - Strong domestic market - Strengthened market position Successful best practice exchange Significant investments planned for Cost efficiency - Animal welfare and food safety - Debottlenecking MSEK Q Q LTM 2017 Total revenue ,873 1,702 Adj. EBITDA Depreciation Adj. EBITA Amortisation Adj. EBIT Non-recurrings items EBIT Adj. EBITDA margin 7.9% 7.8% 7.7% 7.4% Adj. EBITA margin 6.3% 6.3% 6.2% 6.0% Adj. EBIT margin 4.8% 4.7% 4.7% 4.4% 9

10 Finland Further improvement - Cash generative 24% revenue growth (13% in local currency) Another step towards break even - Better product mix and yields Positive EBITDA and operational cash flow Continued strong focus on improved product mix, yields and costs - Expect sequential margin improvement to continue MSEK Q Q LTM 2017 Total revenue Adj. EBITDA Depreciation Adj. EBITA Amortisation Adj. EBIT Non-recurrings items EBIT Adj. EBITDA margin 2.6% -11.2% 0.2% -8.3% Adj. EBITA margin -3.3% -16.1% -5.2% -13.2% Adj. EBIT margin -3.3% -16.1% -5.2% -13.2% 10

11 Income statement Depreciation and amortisation - Increase in depreciation and amortisation mainly due high investments and the Manor Farm acquisition Non-recurring items MSEK 12 - Discontinuation of pilot hatching facility Reduced quarterly net financial items - Negative currency effects last year Tax - Effective tax rate 21.7% EPS growth driven by Manor Farm acquisition Group Q Q LTM 2017 Net sales 2,263 1,825 8,692 7,101 Adj. EBITDA Depreciation Adj. EBITA Amortisation Adj. EBIT Non-recurring items EBIT Net financial items Earnings before tax Taxes Net income Number of shares EPS Adj. EPS (1) Adj. EBITDA margin 7.5% 7.8% 7.6% 7.9% Adj. EBITA margin 4.9% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% Adj. EBIT margin 4.4% 4.6% 4.4% 4.6% 11

12 Statement of financial position Adjusted return on capital employed Improved adjusted ROCE vs. Q Improved ROE vs. Q Equity to assets ratio improved from 26.3% to 28.1% ROCE % % 10.3% 2,4 2,5 11.1% 3,0 8.2% 3,0 Average Capital Employed, BSEK 10.5% 3, Q Q Return on equity ROE % Average Equity, BSEK % 1, ,9 13.9% 0,9 13,8% 1,2 9.5% 1,2 12.8% 1,5 1,0 0, Q Q ,0 12

13 Working capital Neutral working capital in Q Inventory release in Sweden - Increase in receivables Still high inventory in Sweden - Further release expected in Q Working capital MSEK 30-sep sep dec-17 Inventory Trade and other receivables Trade and other payables Working capital Working capital/sales (proforma) 7,5% 7,2% 7,5% Working capital / Sales 7.5% - Target 7.0% - Ireland has higher working capital intensity Ireland consolidated from Q % 7.2% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% Q Q Q Q Q Working capital Working capital / Sales 13

14 Cash flow MSEK 54m quarterly NIBD increase High quarterly investments driven by finalization of Ready-to-eat expansion MSEK 95 of debt assumed as part of Rokkedahl merger impacts NIBD MSEK Q Q Opening balance NIBD EBITDA Non cash items Change in working capital Capital expenditure Operating cashflow Paid financial expenses Paid tax Paid dividend Acquisitions Other items Net cash flow Closing balance NIBD Capex/Depreciation 183% 92% 98% Paid financial expenses/nibd 3,51% 3,65% 3,47% Net cash flow per share -0,83-5,05-5,68 Dividend per share - - 1,35 1) Net cash flow excluding dividend and acquisitions 14

15 SEK Capex/Depreciaiotn SEK DPS/Average shareprice Cash flow guidance Dividend % Dividend policy - 60% of net income over time % 3.0% 2018 cash flow estimates (1) - Capital expenditures SEK 350m (~145% of depreciation) - Paid interest estimate to 3-3.5% of average NIBD E 2.5% 2.0% - Blended effective tax rate of about 20-21% Paid dividend Dividend yield 2019 capital expenditures estimated to MSEK Primarily focused on special projects in Ireland Contingent liabilities - Manor Farm acquisition - Three earn out tranches payable in 2019, 2020 and See appendix for details Capital expenditure 200.0% 150.0% 100.0% 50.0% E 2019E 0.0% Capital expenditure Capex/Depreciation Note: (1) Subject to changes estimates updated on a quarterly basis (2) Dividend for 2018 subject to AGM approval, yield based on YTD share price 15

16 Moving into biofuel for transportation in Sweden

17 Q Summary and Outlook Underlying market in Sweden fully recovered - Solid outlook for 2019 following clearance of remaining excess frozen inventory Q4 Strengthened margins demonstrated in Norway, Ireland and Finland Confident of stepwise path towards break even in Finland Mixed outlook in Denmark - Brand initiative continuing to progress well - Some open exposures to raw material increases Continued strong growth expected in ready to eat segment - Supported by Farre investment Expecting strong cash flow in Q Following structural opportunities closely 17

18 Appendix I Segments, pro-foma figures and noncomparable items 18

19 Segment information by quarter Group (MSEK) Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Sales 1,303 1,359 1,252 1,310 1,341 1,396 1,376 1,386 1,504 1,570 1,508 1,594 1,622 1,825 2,061 2,116 2,252 2,263 Sales growth 1% 3% -4% -3% 3% 3% 10% 6% 12% 12% 10% 15% 8% 16% 37% 33% 39% 24% EBIT (Adj) EBIT margin 5.9% 4.9% 6.4% 5.2% 5.7% 5.1% 4.9% 4.9% 4.9% 4.8% 2.2% 3.7% 4.3% 4.6% 5.6% 3.8% 4.0% 4.4% Sweden (MSEK) Sales Sales growth 17% 15% 3% 6% 8% 5% 17% 6% 11% 9% 2% 5% 3% 5% 5% 0% 4% 5% EBITA (Adj) EBIT (Adj) EBIT margin 5.8% 5.4% 6.8% 6.1% 7.6% 6.8% 6.5% 7.7% 8.3% 8.1% 4.6% 5.4% 5.3% 6.2% 6.6% 4.7% 4.2% 5.1% Denmark (MSEK) Sales Sales growth 1% 9% 8% 7% 9% 1% -3% -6% 5% 8% 2% 6% 5% 3% 22% 9% 10% 12% EBITA (Adj) EBIT (Adj) EBIT margin 4.5% 4.1% 5.8% 5.6% 6.1% 6.4% 6.3% 5.2% 3.6% 4.7% 2.1% 3.7% 4.6% 5.2% 5.0% 3.5% 3.2% 3.9% Norway (MSEK) Sales Sales growth -22% -18% -28% -26% -9% -3% 15% 20% 26% 20% 21% 17% 6% 0% -7% -7% 5% 7% EBITA (Adj) EBIT (Adj) EBIT margin 7.8% 6.5% 7.5% 3.3% 2.0% 6.0% 5.5% 4.9% 6.3% -1.0% 6.1% 7.0% 7.5% 6.7% 7.3% 7.2% 8.4% 7.8% Ireland (MSEK) Sales Sales growth EBITA (Adj) EBIT (Adj) EBIT margin % 4.0% 4.3% 5.4% 4.8% Finland (MSEK) Sales Sales growth % 345% 237% 157% 70% 29% 51% 30% 24% EBITA (Adj) EBIT (Adj) EBIT margin % -75% -43% -35% -23% -28% -19% -11% -16% -8.8% -4.7% -3.2% -3.3% 19

20 Pro-forma figures by quarter (Scandi Standard excl. Ireland) Historic accounts (MSEK) Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16 Q4'16 Q1'17 Q2'17 Q3'17 Q4'17 Q1'18 Q2'18 Q3'18 (excl IE) (excl IE) (excl IE) (excl IE) (excl IE) Net Sales 1,386 1,504 1,570 1,508 1,594 1,622 1,659 1,630 1,652 1,753 1,784 Adj. EBITDA Depreciation EBITA Amortisation Adj. EBIT Non-recurring items EBIT Net financial items EBT Tax Net income Number of shares EPS EPS excl. Amortisation ( EBITDA margin 8.3% 8.2% 7.9% 5.9% 7.1% 7.6% 7.7% 9.2% 6.9% 6.7% 7.4% Adj. EBIT margin 4.9% 4.9% 4.8% 2.2% 3.7% 4.3% 4.5% 6.0% 3.6% 3.6% 4.3% 20

21 Pro-forma figures by quarter (Ireland only) Ireland (MSEK) Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16 Q4'16 Q1'17 Q2'17 Q3'17 Q4'17 Q1'18 Q2'18 Q3'18 Net Sales Adj. EBITDA Depreciation EBITA Amortisation Adj. EBIT Non-recurring items EBIT Net financial items EBT Tax Net income Number of shares EPS EPS excl. Amortisation ( EBITDA margin 7.2% 8.4% 9.2% 5.3% 6.9% 8.1% 7.8% 7.0% 7.3% 8.4% 7.9% Adj. EBIT margin 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 2.1% 3.8% 5.0% 4.7% 4.0% 4.3% 5.4% 4.8% 21

22 Pro-forma figures by quarter (Scandi Standard incl. Ireland) Proforma (MSEK) Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16 Q4'16 Q1'17 Q2'17 Q3'17 Q4'17 Q1'18 Q2'18 Q3'18 Net Sales 1,759 1,895 1,957 1,932 2,016 2,048 2,082 2,061 2,116 2,252 2,263 Adj. EBITDA Depreciation EBITA Amortisation Adj. EBIT Non-recurring items EBIT Net financial items EBT Tax Net income Number of shares EPS EPS excl. Amortisation ( EBITDA margin 8.1% 8.3% 8.2% 5.7% 7.0% 7.7% 7.7% 8.8% 7.0% 7.1% 7.5% Adj. EBIT margin 4.7% 5.0% 5.1% 2.2% 3.7% 4.5% 4.5% 5.6% 3.8% 4.0% 4.4% 22

23 Non-recurring items Non-comparable items Q Q LTM 2017 Staff reduction costs Restructuring of production Costs related to fire in Södam Transcation costs Revaluation of contingent consideration Cancelation of leasing contract Total ) Staff reduction costs in Sweden in the second quarter 2018 and fourth quarter ) Restructuring of and changes in production in Sweden. 3) Costs related to a fire in Sødams facility in Denmark. 4) Deal fees related to the acquisition of the Irish company Manor Farm in 2017 and the majority shareholding in Sødams in Denmark in ) Revaluation of contingent consideration in connection with the acquisition of the remaining 20% of the shares in Sødams in Denmark. 6) Costs for cancellation of a leasing contract and project costs in Sweden. 23

24 Appendix II Manor Farm earn-out mechanism Other 24

25 Earn-out mechanism The first earn-out tranche of EUR 0.4 million will be paid if 2017 EBITDA exceeds EUR 13 million The three later earn-out tranches - Nominal aggregate base amount of EUR 25 million - Subject to adjustment based on the actual EBITDA performance in each of the earn-out years 2018, 2019 and 2020 as compared to the 2016 EBITDA - For the calculation of each earn-out payment, a sliding EV/EBITDA multiple scale is applied, ranging from a minimum multiple of zero to a maximum multiple of 9 - The earn-out tranches will be paid upon availability of audited accounts for the relevant year, verifying EBITDA The agreement includes a provision whereby the vendors would be eligible for a minimum of the base earn-out amount at maturity of each of the remaining earn-out tranches if there is a change of control in Scandi Standard. EUR million EBITDA Earn out payment

26 Matrix explaining segment definitions Product Category split Ready-to-Cook Ready-to-Eat Other Chilled Frozen Wide product range, including whole chicken, cuts, marinated, steaks, skewers, organic, free-range, etc. Wide product range, including whole chicken, cuts, marinated, steaks, skewers, organic, free-range, etc. Cooked chicken sold both chilled and frozen, e.g. nuggets, sallad chicken etc. Mainly eggs and ingredie nts Sales Channel split Retail: Retail customers in our domestic markets: SE, DK, NO, IE & FI Food Service: Home market FS customers and international key accounts Export: Customers outside our home markets, regardless of channels, except international key accounts Ingredients: Industry and Pet food customers Other: Sales of Day-old chicks and hatching eggs 26