The distributional effects of fiscal consolidation in 9 EU countries
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1 The distributional effects of fiscal consolidation in 9 EU countries S Avram*, F Figari **, C Leventi +, H Levy*, J Navicke*, M Matsaganis +, E Militaru, A Paulus*, O Rastrigina* and H Sutherland* * ISER, U of Essex; ** U of Insubria; + Athens University of Economics and Business; National Research Institute for Labour and Social Protection, Bucharest DG-EMPL conference Microsimulation for Policymaking in Times of Crisis 21 st November 212, Brussels
2 Motivation The economic crisis and the fiscal consolidation measures have an impact on income distribution: inequality, and any driver of growth in it, matters in its own right prospects for macroeconomic recovery depend on composition of fiscal adjustment political acceptability
3 Motivation Fiscal consolidation literature is mainly macro-oriented and often overlooking the distributional effects The crucial question, however, remains the impact of fiscal consolidations on the distribution of disposable income. On this, there is very little information, because very rarely does the timing of income-distribution surveys allow an analysis of its evolution before and after a fiscal consolidation, and because there are well-known difficulties in assessing the impact of the various budget items on income distribution (Perotti, AER, 1996)
4 Introduction Based on a microsimulation approach, we provide ex ante estimates of the distributional impact of fiscal consolidation measures implemented in the EU countries since the start of the Great Recession and up to mid- 212 Focus on measures of fiscal consolidation with a direct impact on income distribution Public wages, public pensions, cash benefits, direct taxes/sic VAT A follow up to last year first comparative study (Callan et al. 211)
5 Methodological issues Emphasis on consistent cross-country analysis Counterfactual: How would tax-benefit systems have evolved by now (212) without fiscal consolidation? Pre-FC policies indexed using national rules/conventions Compare with actual 212 systems Period: all fiscal consolidation up to mid-212 Measures of fiscal consolidation Fiscal measures aimed to cut the public deficit or limit its growth Exclude measures part of other policy agenda, rolling back of stimulus measures and expired measures [Adjustment for labour market changes] Simulating transitions into and out of unemployment using info from LFS
6 Model, data and countries EUROMOD + 28 EU-SILC data Market incomes adjusted to 212 levels 9 countries: Estonia (EE), Greece (EL), Spain (ES), Italy (IT), Latvia (LV), Lithuania (LT), Portugal (PT), Romania (RO) and the UK Measures introduced since 29-1 (except IT: 211) All (but UK): cuts in public wages (or freezing) All: cuts in public pensions/benefits (or freezing) Majority: increased income taxes and worker SIC Some: increased employer SIC and property taxes All: increased standard rate of VAT Interactions between policy instruments Taxes on public wages and (some) benefits; means-testing
7 Types of fiscal consolidation measure: summary Country/ Start of FC measures Cuts in benefits or public pensions (or freezing) Increased income taxes and/or reduced tax concessions Increased worker social insurance contributions (SICs) Public sector pay cuts (or freezing) EE EL ES IT LV LT PT RO UK Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes No Yes No Yes Yes Yes No Yes Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes (Yes) Increased employer SICs Yes Yes No Yes No No No No Yes Increased property taxes No Yes (Yes) Yes (Yes) (Yes) No (Yes) No Increased standard rate of VAT Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
8 Aggregate change in household disposable income by income component % EE EL ES IT LV LT PT RO UK (net) public wages means-tested benefits income taxes public pensions non means-tested benefits workers SIC
9 change, % Extent of changes by income component % Interval for grid lines: 5pp public wages public pensions benefits EE ES LV PT UK EL IT LT RO EE ES LV PT UK EL IT LT RO EE ES LV PT UK EL IT LT RO income taxes/workers SIC employer SIC EE ES LV PT UK EL IT LT RO EE ES LV PT UK EL IT LT RO Note: results for taxes and benefits also include effects due to the changes in public wages.
10 Change in household disposable income by income decile group % Interval for grid lines: 2pp income decile group IT LT UK income decile group EE ES RO income decile group EL LV PT
11 -1 Change in hh disposable income by household type (and by decile group) % Interval for grid lines: 5pp EE IT EL ES LV LT PT RO UK income decile group all hh-s hh-s with elderly hh-s with children
12 What differences do VAT increases make? Interval for grid lines: 5pp EE (2) IT (1) PT (2) EL (4) LV (4) RO (5) ES (5) LT (3) UK (2.5) income decile/quintile group simulated measures simulated measures + VAT
13 -1-1 Distribution of Austerity measures taking into account Labour Market Adjustments Interval for grid lines: 5pp EE IT EL LV ES LT PT RO UK income decile group without adjustments with adjustments
14 Fiscal consolidation in context: the effect of all tax-benefit changes Interval for grid lines: 5pp EE IT PT EL LV RO ES LT UK income decile group usual indexation HICP indexed
15 Summary Distributional implications of gov-s choices about fiscal consolidation: effects on income up to mid 212 Progressive Greece though large even for bottom decile Spain low income pensioners lose more Italy flat with VAT Latvia top decile children lose more Romania pensioners lose more UK top decile and children lose more Inverted U-shape Regressive Lithuania children lose more, regressive with VAT Portugal low income children lose more Estonia especially for pensioners
16 Thank you! Acknowledgements and further information The process of extending and updating EUROMOD is financially supported by the Directorate General for Employment, Social Affairs and Inclusion (DG-EMPL) of the European Commission. EUROMOD is made generally available for academic and not-forprofit use. Contact For more information see Funding for this analysis from the Social Situation Observatory Paper will be published as an SSO Research Note in December.
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18 change, % Extent of changes by income component % - LMA Interval for grid lines: 5pp public wages public pensions benefits EE ES EL IT LV LT PT RO EE ES EL IT LV LT PT RO EE ES EL IT LV LT PT RO income taxes/workers SIC employer SIC EE ES LV PT EE ES LV PT EL IT LT RO EL IT LT RO Note: results for taxes and benefits also include effects due to the changes in public wages.
19 Change in household disposable income by income decile group % Interval for grid lines: 2pp income decile group IT LT UK income decile group EE ES RO income decile group EL LV PT
20 Aggregate change in household disposable income by income component % - LMA EE EL ES IT LV LT PT RO original income means-tested benefits income taxes public pensions non means-tested benefits workers SIC
21 Change in hh disposable income by household type (and by decile group) % - LMA Interval for grid lines: 5pp -1-1 EE EL ES IT LV LT PT RO income decile group all hh-s hh-s with elderly hh-s with children
22 Vat con LMA
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