US Fed: December rate hike still on the cards

Transcription

1 Policy Watch: US Fed Treasury Research Group For private circulation only US Fed: December rate hike still on the cards In line with our expectations, US Fed maintained status quo and kept the Fed funds target range unchanged at 0.25%-0.50%. Chart 1: Pace of normalisation to be gradual (%) FOMC median Fed Funds rate projection June September Long term Source: US Federal Reserve Chart 2: Fed lowers median Fed funds rate projection Median Fed macro-economic projections Long term GDP (%YoY) Jun n.a. 2.0 Sep Unemployment Rate (%) Jun n.a. 4.8 Sep PCE inflation (%YoY) Jun n.a. 2.0 Sep Core PCE inflation (%YoY) Jun n.a. n.a. Sep n.a. Median Fed funds rate (%) Jun n.a Sep Source: US Federal Reserve September 21, 2016 Samir Tripathi Niharika Tripathi Please see important disclaimer at the end of this report Across the board lowering in the median Fed funds rate was seen; highlighting an even more gradual pace of normalisation than earlier envisaged. We maintain our view of an interest rate hike in December 2016 in tandem with market expectations. Fed maintains status quo The Fed maintained status quo in its policy meeting, broadly in line with expectation. It reaffirmed its view that the current 0.25%-0.50% target range for the Federal funds rate remains appropriate. Three members voted against the action vis-à-vis only one previously (see Appendix). Pace of normalisation to be even more gradual Across the board lowering in the median Fed funds rate was seen. This is in tandem with the Fed s stance of gradual policy normalisation. The median Fed funds rate projection for 2016 was lowered to a single rate hike of 25 bps. The projections for 2017 and 2018 have been revised lower to 1.125% (prior 1.625%) and 1.875% (prior 2.375%) respectively. The terminal rate was revised down marginally to 2.9% from 3.0% earlier. Further, the projection for 2019 was given for the first time at 2.625%. Fed upgrades assessment of economic activity The Fed upgraded its assessment of the economic activity, citing that growth of economic activity has picked up from the modest pace seen in the first half of this year vs. the moderate rate of growth quoted last meeting. However, in the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) that accompanied the statement, the FOMC revised slightly lower its projection for GDP growth for 2016 and the long term. Further, the Fed accredited strong increases in household spending while acknowledging softness in business fixed investment (same as in the previous statement). Labour market recovery remains on track On the labour market conditions, Fed acknowledged that a range of indicators point to continued strengthening of the labour market. This is largely in line with firm gains in non-farm payrolls data since the beginning of the year. Inflation continues to run below the Fed target The Fed noted that inflation has continued to run below the Committee s longerrun objective, partly reflecting earlier declines in energy prices and decreasing prices of non-energy imports. However, it retained its view that inflation is expected to rise towards the 2% target in the medium-term. Fed sees risks to economic outlook as roughly balanced The rhetoric noted that near-term risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced as compared to near-term risks to the economic outlook have diminished stated previously. However, the Committee highlighted that while the case for increase in Fed funds rate has strengthened, they for the time being have decided to wait for further evidence of continued progress toward its objectives.

2 Market Reaction: Broadly positive While the case for December rate hike is still not ruled out especially given the fact that three members dissented, market reaction was broadly positive. US equities as well as the 10 year bonds rallied while the Dollar index declined, clearly taking cues from the long term trajectory of interest rate hikes. This is further reflected in sharp jump in gold prices. Emerging-market stocks and currencies also rose after the Fed policy announcement. December rate hike a likely reality We maintain our view of an interest rate hike in December Note of improving growth and risks as being roughly balanced in today s policy statement set the stage for the same. 25 bps rate hike incorporated in the current Dot plot as well as growing number of dissenters further supports our call. Going ahead, incoming data and developments in the global and financial markets will remain critical for determining the next policy action. 2

3 A. FOMC statement comparison Growth Annexure FOMC statement comparison July 27th 2016 September 21st 2016 Our assessment The labor market strengthened and that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate rate. The labor market has continued to strengthen and growth of economic activity has picked up from the modest pace seen in the first half of this year. Hawkish Labour market Payrolls and other labor market indicators point to some increase in labor utilization in recent months. Although the unemployment rate is little changed in recent months, job gains have been solid, on average. Neutral Other sectors Household spending has been growing strongly but business fixed investment has been soft Household spending has been growing strongly but business fixed investment has remained soft. Neutral Inflation Inflation has continued to run below the Inflation has continued to run below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run objective, partly Committee's 2 percent longer-run objective, partly reflecting earlier declines in energy prices and in reflecting earlier declines in energy prices and in prices of non-energy imports. Market-based prices of non-energy imports. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; measures of inflation compensation remain low; most survey-based measures of longer-term most survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on inflation expectations are little changed, on balance, in recent months. balance, in recent months. Neutral Risk to the outlook In light of the current shortfall of inflation from 2 percent, the Committee will carefully monitor actual and expected progress toward its inflation goal. The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant only gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. However, the actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data. Near term risks to the economic outlook have diminished. In light of the current shortfall of inflation from 2 percent, the Committee will carefully monitor actual and expected progress toward its inflation goal. The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant only gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. However, the actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data.near term risk to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced. Slightly hawkish Voting against the proposal Voting against the action was Esther L. George Esther L. George, Loretta J. Mester, and Eric Rosengren, each of whom preferred at this meeting to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 1/2 to 3/4 percent Hawkish 3

4 Nov-16 Dec-16 Feb-17 Mar-17 B. Comparison of dot-plots on Fed funds rate projections June Dot-plot September Dot-plot Note: In the panel above, each shaded circle indicates the value (rounded to the nearest 1/8 percentage point) of an individual participant s judgment of the midpoint of the appropriate target range for the federal funds rate or the appropriate target level for the federal funds rate at the end of the specified calendar year or over the longer run. C. Market implied policy rate (%) Market implied probability of a rate hike Source: Bloomberg, ICICI Bank Research 4

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