Strengthening Public Investment Management
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1 Strengthening Public Investment Management Washington, DC June 22 23, 2011 James Brumby PREM
2 Aiming for Infrastructure Results Public Investment "Economic" Infrastructure transport, communications, energy, irrigation systems, water and sanitation "Social" Infrastructure education and health facilities and housing Creating and preserving economically and social productive public assets Efficiency is value for money : budget to final cost, completion time to actual time How long will they last? Right starting quality/standard Depreciation versus service value, O&M Risk: build, neglect, rebuild. Page 2
3 Addressing Infrastructure Gaps: Multiple Sectors & Modalities Engaged Fiscal financing Financial Sector role Some fiscal & some corporate financing Financial Sector role Other sources of financing General Government Sector (Central State, Local) Public Corporations (Nonfinancial) Private Sector Public Investment Management PPPs Business Environment Private Investment Mainly fiscal Examples Power Roads Telecommunications /Internet Schools Clinics/Hospitals Stadiums Green Infrastructure; Adaptation Mainly regulatory M E G A P R O J E C T S 3 Page 3
4 Examples from APEC National Govt vs. Subnational Govts, 2008 In Indonesia, from different sources Australia Chile Russia United States Gross fixed capital formation, relative share from national government from subnational governments Source: IMF GFS (2008) Source: WB Calculation based on data from LKPP and SIKD, Indonesia Ministry of Finance Page 4
5 Value for Money? Government Investment and Infrastructure Quality in the World 2 Infrastructu ure Quality (2010) ) Average Government Investment (% GDP) Source: IMF WEF (2010) and IMF WEO(2011) Page 5
6 Value for Money? Government Investment and Infrastructure Quality in APEC ) ure Quality (2010) Infrastructu 3 4 Hong Kong Singapore Canada Japan Korea Chile United States Australia New Thailand Zealand Mexico Russia Indonesia Philippines Malaysia Vietnam China Average Government Investment (% GDP) Source: IMF WEF (2010) and IMF WEO(2011) Page 6
7 Ex Post Benchmarking Source: CoST (2011), IMED for Bangladesh Page 7
8 Megaprojects Characteristics >$1 billion; duration > 5 years Transformational Highly complex Many stakeholders involved/conflicts of interest No previous reference point Changes continuously Technological evolution during life cycle Unknown risks; tendency to crises Characteristics i of a temporary organization Challenges Technically inadequate models Underestimates of costs and time; overestimates of benefits (psychological) Strategic misrepresentation (political) Initial designs deficient High political linterest makes management harder Tendency for management by crisis Low quality results 90% megaprojects run over costs
9 A Framework for Assessing PIM Two pillars of the approach Desirable features of well functioning system in 8 cycle Diagnostic indicators to assess actual system Focus on how to inform reform design to enhance efficiency by Gap Analysis Desirable Institutional Features Gap Analysis Actual Functioning Diagnostic Indicators Page 9
10 The Eight Should Have Core PIM Features Project development Detailed project design 1 Guidance & Screening 2 Formal Project Appraisal 3 Appraisal Review 4 Project Selection & Budgeting g 5 - Implement ation 6 Project Changes 7 Service Delivery 8 Project Evaluation Pre feasibility Feasibility CE CBA Regulatory requirements Basic completion review Evaluation Source: Rajaram, Anand, et al. (2010), 'Framework for Reviewing Public Investment Efficiency', (Washington, DC: World Bank Policy Working Paper, No (August)),
11 Different Countries Facing Various Challenges hll Institutional Chile Ireland Korea Brazil Vietnam Mongolia Nigeria Features Investment guidance & preliminary screening Formal project appraisal Independent review of appraisal Project selection and budgeting Implementation Adjustment for changes in project Facility operation Evaluation Page 11
12 PIMI LICs and MICs Source: Dabla Norris et. al (2011), Investing in Public Investment: An Index of Public Investment Efficiency, Washington, DC: IMF Working Paper, WP 11/37 Page 12
13 Infrastructure Performance Grades in the US Source: Pew Center on the States ( Grading the States Report, 2008 Page 13
14 Strengthening Good Enough PIM prioritization in project portfolio Well executed Poorly executed Good projects A C Poor projects B D Source: Rajaram et al (2010) Page 14
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