Changing Trends and Investor Bases of Asian Bond Markets Sabyasachi Mitra, Asian Development Bank S. Ghon Rhee, University of Hawaii

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1 Changing Trends and Investor Bases of Asian Bond Markets Sabyasachi Mitra, Asian Development Bank S. Ghon Rhee, University of Hawaii A Presentation at the 21 st OECD Global Forum on Public Debt Management January

2 Domestic Debt Securities by Region Issuers June 2001 June 2011 Annual Growth Rate Unit: US$ Billion % of GDP % of World East Asia (Excluding Japan) , % 51.1% 7.9% Japan 5, , % 242.0% 20.3% United States 14, , % 169.1% 36.4% EU22 6, , % 100.3% 25.3% World 28, , % 108.6% 100.0% Source: BIS. IMF 2

3 Domestic Debt Securities by East Asian Economies Issuers June 2001 June 2011 Annual Growth Rate Unit: US$ Billion % of GDP China , % 44.9% Chinese Taipei % 54.1% Hong Kong SAR % 22.6% Indonesia % 13.2% Malaysia % 114.0% Philippines % 30.2% Singapore % 51.8% Korea , % 105.6% Thailand % 66.3% East Asia (Excluding Japan) , % 51.1% Japan 5, , % 242.0% Source: BIS. IMF 3

4 Government Debt by Region Unit: US$ Billion Issuers June 2001 June 2011 Annual Growth Rate % of GDP % of World East Asia Ex Japan , % 25.6% 6.7% Japan 3, , % 206.5% 29.4% United States 4, , % 77.0% 28.3% EU22 3, , % 57.4% 24.6% World 12, , % 63.8% 100.0% Source: BIS. IMF 4

5 Government Debt: East Asian Economies Issuers June 2001 June 2011 Annual Growth Rate Unit: US$ Billion % of GDP China , % 21.3% Chinese Taipei % 32.6% Hong Kong SAR % 7.0% Indonesia % 11.7% Malaysia % 51.9% Philippines % 29.3% Singapore % 42.3% Korea % 45.9% Thailand % 47.8% East Asia Ex Japan , % 25.6% Japan 3, , % 206.5% Source: BIS. IMF 5

6 Jun Composition of Domestic Debt: United States Unit: US$ Billion Corporate Financial Government Source: BIS 6

7 Jun Composition of Domestic Debt: EU Unit: US$ Billion Corporate Financial Government Source: BIS 7

8 Jun Composition of Domestic Debt: Japan Unit: US$ Billion Corporate Financial Government Source: BIS 8

9 Jun Composition of Domestic Debt: East Asia Unit: US$ Billion Corporate Financial Government Source: BIS 9

10 International Debt Securities Issued by Region Issuers June 2001 June 2011 Unit: US$ Billion Annual Growth Rate % of GDP % of World East Asia (w/o Japan) % 5.3% 2.0% Japan % 7.1% 1.5% United States 2, , % 48.6% 26.0% EU22 3, , % 95.7% 59.8% World 6, , % 43.8% 100.0% Source: BIS. IMF 10

11 Relative Size: International Debt Securities 100.0% 95.7% 100.0% 90.0% 80.0% % of GDP % of World 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 48.6% 59.8% 43.8% 40.0% 30.0% 26.0% 20.0% 10.0% 5.3% 7.1% 2.0% 1.5% 0.0% East Asia Ex Japan Japan United States EU22 World Source: BIS, IMF 11

12 International Debt Securities by East Asian Economies Issuers June 2001 June 2011 Annual Growth Rate Unit: US$ Billion % of GDP China % 1.6% Chinese Taipei % 2.4% Hong Kong SAR % 35.3% Indonesia % 4.8% Malaysia % 16.7% Philippines % 19.9% Singapore % 24.1% Korea % 13.5% Thailand % 3.3% East Asia (w/o Japan) % 5.3% Japan % 7.1% Source: BIS. IMF 12

13 Investors in East Asian Bonds ECONOMIES Unit: US$ billion AMOUNT EU $ United States China, P.R. & Hong Kong Singapore Japan Thailand 8.42 Malaysia 5.63 Korea 2.52 Macao 1.87 Philippines 1.03 Indonesia 0.83 Others World $ Source: IMF 13

14 Investors in Japanese Bonds $MM % EU 108, % Others 47% EU 38% United States 30, % Hong Kong 10, % Singapore 1, % Korea 0% United States 11% Hong Singapore Kong 0% 4% Korea 1, % Others 134, % World 287, % Source: IMF 14

15 Investors in Chinese Bonds United States 7% Singapore 7% Japan 2% Macao 2% Korea 1% Others 5% $MM % Hong Kong 12, % EU 4, % Singapore 1, % United States 1, % EU 22% Hong Kong 54% Japan % Macao % Korea % Others 1, % World 22, % Source: IMF 15

16 Investors in Korean Bonds Thailand 6% Others 7% $MM % EU % Japan 9% Hong Kong 11% EU 37% United States % Singapore % Hong Kong % Japan % Singapore 11% United States 19% Thailand % Others % World % Source: IMF 16

17 Investors in Hong Kong Bonds Malaysia 1% Korea 2% Macao 5% Thailand Philippines 1% 1% Japan 8% United States 12% Singapore 25% Others 7% EU 38% $MM % EU % Singapore % United States % Japan % Macao % Korea % Malaysia % Thailand % Philippines % Others % World % Source: IMF 17

18 Investors in Singapore Bonds Malaysia 6% Indonesia 2% Others 15% EU 30% $MM % EU 10, % United States 7, % Japan 4, % Hong Kong 4, % Hong Kong 12% Japan 14% United States 21% Malaysia 1, % Indonesia % Others 5, % World 33, % Source: IMF 18

19 Investors in Australian Bonds $MM % Singapore 2% Hong Kong 5% Others 18% EU 29% EU 150, % United States 122, % Japan 114, % Hong Kong 27, % Japan 22% United States 24% Singapore 12, % Others 91, % World 519, % Source: IMF 19

20 Investors in Thai Bonds Hong Kong 1% Malaysia 2% Japan 8% Korea 1% Others 9% EU 36% $MM % EU % Singapore % United States % Japan % United States 20% Malaysia % Hong Kong % Singapore 23% Korea % Others % World % Source: IMF 20

21 Investors in Malaysian Bonds Japan Hong 7% Kong 8% Singapore 16% Others 4% Source: IMF United States 25% EU 40% $M % EU % United States % Singapore % Hong Kong % Japan % Others % World % 21

22 Investment in East Asian bonds by Asian Economies in Proportion to Total Investments 70.00% 60.00% 63.26% 50.00% 52.28% 40.00% 30.00% 29.02% 34.42% 20.00% 10.00% 0.00% 18.27% 18.79% 1.04% 8.43% 19.59% Source: IMF 22

23 Investor Profile for Japan JPY billion Other Financial Institutions Financial Auxilliaries Nonfinancial Corporations General Government Households Private Nonprofit InstitutionsServing Households Overseas Central Bank Insurance and Pension Funds Depository Corporations Jun-11 Source: Asian Development Bank

24 Investor Profile: China CNY billion Sep-11 Others Individuals Funds Institutions Banks Non Bank Financial Institutions Insurance Institutions Special Members Source: Asian Development Bank

25 IDR billion Investor Profile: Indonesia 700, , , , , , , Sep-11 Others Foreign Holders Pension Funds Mutual Funds Insurance Bank Indonesia Banks Source: Asian Development Bank

26 KRW billion Investor Profile: Korea Jun-11 Rest of the World Individual Sector Business Sector Government Sector Other Financial Companies Insurance & Pension Funds Banks Source: Asian Development Bank

27 MYR billion Investor Profile: Malaysia Jun-11 Public Sector Foreign Holders Insurance Companies Social Security Institutions Bank Negara Malaysia Financial Institutions Source: Asian Development Bank

28 THB billion 3, , Investor Profile: Thailand Nonresidents General Government and Non-profit Organizations Residents 2, , , Sep-11 Other Nonfinancial Corporations Contractual Savings Funds Non-Financial Market Mutual Funds Insurance Companies Financial Coporations not elsewhere classified Commercial Banks Central Bank Source: Asian Development Bank

29 Thank You for Your Attention! 29

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