The Notes To The Five Year Forecast Are An Integral Part Of This Presentation.

Transcription

1 ACTUAL ACTUAL ACTUAL ACTUAL ACTUAL ESTIMATED ESTIMATED ESTIMATED ESTIMATED ESTIMATED 7/06-6/07 7/07-6/08 7/08-6/09 7/09-6/10 7/10-6/11 7/11-6/12 7/12-6/13 7/13-6/14 7/14-6/15 7/15-6/16 OPERATING REVENUES: Real Estate Tax $96,813,730 $97,709,924 $99,225,651 $113,007,145 $124,286,218 $125,852,821 $127,756,854 $130,274,311 $132,890,061 $135,642,110 Tangible Tax 6,629,685 7,037,137 4,031,152 1,351, ,838 12, Interest 4,671,540 3,730,421 2,168,579 1,328, , , , ,372 1,061,530 1,413,010 Other Local 1,292,228 1,301,408 1,270,646 1,178,054 1,291,683 1,189,447 1,202,068 1,223,077 1,244,630 1,266,740 Federal ,022,089 1,240, , State Taxes Reim. 11,398,478 13,725,292 16,491,984 20,304,530 21,804,689 19,065,637 16,330,331 16,513,120 16,711,027 16,911,006 State 15,690,302 15,518,157 15,205,011 13,766,775 12,755,743 12,854,592 12,804,592 12,516,592 12,466,592 12,416,592 Total Operating Receipts $136,495,963 $139,022,339 $138,393,023 $151,958,407 $162,691,769 $160,069,011 $158,489,080 $161,249,472 $164,373,840 $167,649,458 OPERATING EXPENDITURES: Wages $92,848,826 $97,527,939 $101,569,801 $107,369,797 $111,108,944 $113,152,923 $118,485,729 $122,236,156 $125,979,622 $129,834,627 Fringe Benefits 24,545,640 27,221,394 29,656,215 32,902,746 36,158,049 38,899,702 41,642,966 45,324,256 49,165,867 53,780,688 Purchased Services 7,601,798 7,461,686 7,568,143 7,754,465 8,083,861 7,605,346 7,681,399 7,911,841 8,149,197 8,393,673 Materials 3,590,802 3,931,126 3,962,513 4,397,508 4,137,385 4,044,647 5,168,741 5,261,271 5,356,578 5,454,743 Capital Outlay 149, , , , , , , , , ,677 Other Expenditures 1,997,945 2,161,772 1,790,873 2,398,322 2,602,918 2,731,497 2,758,812 2,841,576 2,926,824 3,014,628 Total Operating Exp. $130,734,499 $138,532,170 $144,763,146 $155,107,242 $162,474,530 $166,616,077 $175,881,029 $183,722,785 $191,730,200 $200,635,037 Revenue Over/(Under) $5,761,464 $490,169 ($6,370,123) ($3,148,835) $217,239 ($6,547,066) ($17,391,949) ($22,473,313) ($27,356,360) ($32,985,579) Expenditures OTHER SOURCES (USES): Transfers/Advances In 1,202, ,350 26,332 5,456 11,420 50,207 50,000 50,000 50,000 50,000 Transfers/Advances (Out) (98,100) (84,650) (759,108) (257,350) (72,921) (552,251) (547,921) (547,921) (547,921) (547,921) Total Other Sources (Uses) $1,104,550 $873,700 ($732,776) ($251,894) ($61,501) ($502,044) ($497,921) ($497,921) ($497,921) ($497,921) Total Receipts Over/ $6,866,014 $1,363,869 ($7,102,899) ($3,400,729) $155,738 ($7,049,110) ($17,889,870) ($22,971,234) ($27,854,281) ($33,483,500) (Under) Expenditures Beginning Cash Balance $42,943,765 $49,809,779 $51,173,648 $44,070,749 $40,670,020 $40,825,758 $33,776,648 $15,886,777 ($7,084,456) ($34,938,738) Ending Cash Balance $49,809,779 $51,173,648 $44,070,749 $40,670,020 $40,825,758 $33,776,648 $15,886,777 ($7,084,456) ($34,938,738) ($68,422,237) Encumbrances ($2,720,551) ($2,906,419) ($3,081,879) ($1,858,526) ($1,535,296) ($2,582,549) ($2,726,156) ($2,847,703) ($2,971,818) ($3,109,843) Ending Unreserved Balance $47,089,228 $48,267,229 $40,988,870 $38,811,494 $39,290,462 $31,194,099 $13,160,621 ($9,932,159) ($37,910,556) ($71,532,081) Enrollment 13,195 13,427 13,643 13,955 14,223 14,480 14,684 14,867 15,052 15,247 10/10/11 Original The Notes To The Five Year Forecast Are An Integral Part Of This Presentation.

2 REAL ESTATE VALUE ASSUMPTIONS NOTES TO THE FIVE YEAR FORECAST GENERAL FUND ONLY October 10, 2011 REVENUE ASSUMPTIONS Property values are established each year by the County Auditor based on new construction and complete or updated values. A reappraisal update of district property values occurred for 2008 values collected in calendar year The reappraisal left values unchanged. These have been factored into the projection for district property values along with their corresponding tax reduction factors affecting outside voted millage. The Dublin School District has values in Delaware, Franklin and Union Counties. For collection year 2012 the historic growth trends will be adjusted from/ to: Res./Ag. 1.2% to 1.5 % (increase); Comm./Ind. 1.2% to 1.5% (increase) Total AV is estimated to increase $44.3 M for new construction and -$88.4 M due to reappraisal decreases resulting in Class I rates of mills and Class II rates of mills. For collection year 2013 the historic growth trends will be adjusted from/ to: Res./Ag. 1.5% to 2.0 % (increase); Comm./Ind. 1.5% to 2.0% (increase) For collection year 2014 the historic growth trends will be adjusted from/ to: Res./Ag. 2.0% to 2.0 % (no change); Comm./Ind. 2.0% to 2.0% (no change) For collection year 2015 the historic growth trends will be adjusted from/ to: Res./Ag. 2.0% to 2.0 % (no change); Comm./Ind. 2.0% to 2.0% (no change) Total AV is estimated to increase $60.8 M for new construction and $84.8 M due to reappraisal increases resulting in Class I rates of mills and Class II rates of mills. For collection year 2016 the historic growth trends will be adjusted from/ to: Res./Ag. 2.0% to 2.0 % (no change); Comm./Ind. 2.0% to 2.0% (no change) ESTIMATED ASSESSED VALUE BY COLLECTION YEARS (IN MILLIONS) Classification Est Est Est Est Est Res./Ag. $2,126 $2,169 $2,218 $2,323 $2,369 Comm./Ind P.U... Pers NEW TAX LEVIES Total $2,970 $3,028 $3,094 $3,240 $3,303 New levies are estimated to be collected at 96% of the annual amount. This allows for 2.25% delinquency and 1.75% A & T fees. Also, 52% of new Res./Ag. is expected to be collected in March tax settlements and 48% collected in August tax settlements. Public Utility taxes are estimated at 50% in March and August. These timing estimates are very important to estimating when new levy or new construction tax dollars will be available to the district. ESTIMATED REAL ESTATE TAX New Base $122,428,017 $123,965,664 $125,886,646 $128,273,295 $130,853,005 New Construction 1,722,629 2,091,734 2,374,331 2,390,979 2,446,850 Delinquent 3,144,431 3,270,208 3,401,016 3,537,056 3,678,538 Win Win Deduction (1,257,274) (1,400,000) (1,400,000) (1,500,000) (1,500,000) Reappraisal ($184,982) ($170,753) 12, , ,717 Total $125,852,821 $127,756,854 $130,274,311 $132,890,061 $135,642,110 Page 1

3 ESTIMATED TANGIBLE PERSONAL TAX AND HB66 The phase out of inventory taxes noted above began in FY 06. HB66 was adopted in June 2005 and the provisions of this legislation has eliminated the tangible personal property tax. HB 66 has provisions for the State to "hold harmless" through 2013 (annually phased out until gone after 2020) based on Tax Year 2004 valuations and tax rates the loss of personal property tax revenue. For tax year 2007, the classification of telephone and railroad public utility personal property was switched to general business personal property. This results in higher tangible personal property tax revenue and lower real estate tax revenue with a zero net effect. HB 66 also systematically phases out the telephone/railroad public utility personal property by Projecting the impact of these changes is difficult, we believe our estimates are accurate in this forecast with the most current information that has been made available to us. Tangible Personal Property $12,704 $0 $0 $0 $0 INTEREST INCOME Interest income will increase and decrease as the cash position of the General Fund fluctuates over the forecast period. The Federal reserve reduced the overnight rate to %. We'll use approximately 0.2% of general fund revenues as a guide for interest income in FY12. Funds are predominately invested in STAR Ohio, Agencies, T-bills, T-notes and interest bearing sweep accounts. Security of the public funds collected by the district is the top priority of the treasurer's office. Total $12,704 $0 $0 $0 $0 OTHER LOCAL REVENUES These amounts are estimated based on past trends. Our tuition rate will increase along with the percentage of total General Fund income that comes from local property taxes. Rentals, pay to participate, & student fees are generally stable. Slight increases in building rental rates are planned at this time and could be increased over the five year forecast. Other fees are expected to remain stable. Pay To Participate $248,000 $248,000 $248,000 $248,000 $248,000 Tuition 428, , , , ,012 Student Fees 68,000 68,000 68,000 68,000 68,000 Building Rentals 404, , , , ,728 Donations Other 40,000 40,000 40,000 40,000 40,000 Total $1,189,447 $1,202,068 $1,223,077 $1,244,630 $1,266,740 Page 2

4 STATE TAXES REIMBURSEMENT a) ROLLBACK & HOMESTEAD REIMBURSEMENT These funds are reimbursements from Ohio for tax credits given owner occupied residences equaling 12.5% of the gross property taxes charged residential taxpayers and up to 10% for commercial and industrial taxpayers. These amounts will grow along with new levies and new construction in Res./Ag/ and Comm. /Ind. property classifications. HB 66 has eliminated the 10 percent rollback on Class II property (commercial and industrial), and HB119 has expanded the homestead exemption for seniors for the first $25,000 of value. Base R & H $11,742,767 $11,885,550 $12,032,081 $12,214,870 $12,412,777 New Levy New Construction 142, , , , ,979 Total $11,885,550 $12,032,081 $12,214,870 $12,412,777 $12,612,756 b) TANGIBLE PERSONAL PROPERTY REIMBURSEMENTS These amounts reflect the state's reimbursement of tangible personal property tax that is being phased out in HB66. The current state biennium budget has increased the rate of the phaseout of the TPP "hold harmless" payments TPP Reimbursement 7,180,087 4,298,250 4,298,250 4,298,250 4,298,250 Total $7,180,087 $4,298,250 $4,298,250 $4,298,250 $4,298,250 SUMMARY OF STATE TAXES REIMBURSEMENT Rollback and Homestead $11,885,550 $12,032,081 $12,214,870 $12,412,777 $12,612,756 TPP Reimbursement 7,180,087 4,298,250 4,298,250 4,298,250 4,298,250 $19,065,637 $16,330,331 $16,513,120 $16,711,027 $16,911,006 Page 3

5 STATE REVENUE ESTIMATES The current biennium budget for FY12 & FY13 has basic aid for Dublin flat funded from FY11. FY10 & FY11 were supported by one time Federal Stimulus "fiscal stabilization fund" (See Federal section below) that was reduced from basic aid. That reduction was approximately $1.1 million. The current biennium budget included a $17 per student "Efficiency and Academic Supplement" for Districts that are rated "Excellent" or "Excellent with Distinction." We believe our District will obtain those ratings and receive the funding. With the best information we have available, we developed estimates for FY12 and beyond. A) State Foundation Revenue PASS Form PASS Basic Aid $12,404,919 $12,354,919 $12,304,919 $12,254,919 $12,204,919 Efficiency and Academic Supplement 238, , Special Ed Catastroph 211, , , , ,673 FEDERAL Total $12,854,592 $12,804,592 $12,516,592 $12,466,592 $12,416,592 There are two federal programs that were provided to states that were passed onto local school districts. State Fiscal Stabilization Funds (SFSF) to help stabilize state and local budgets in order to minimize and avoid reductions in education and other essential services. Education SFSF for primary and secondary education will be distributed to school districts as part of the foundation settlement payments each month and total foundation support will include both state and federal SFSF funds for FY10 & FY11. The District will also receive monies as of the Education Jobs Fund (Ed Jobs) federal program that is to be used to save or retain education jobs. Ed Jobs can be utilized for the and/or school years. The District will utilize all monies in FY SFSF $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Ed Jobs 774, Total $774,311 $0 $0 $0 $0 RETURN OF ADVANCES & REFUND OF PRIOR YEAR EXPENDITURES These are non-operating revenues which are the repayment of short term loans to other funds over the previous fiscal year and reimbursements for expenses received for a previous fiscal year in the current fiscal year. All advances over year end are planned to be returned in the succeeding fiscal year. Advance Returns $50,000 $50,000 $50,000 $50,000 $50,000 R.O.P.Y.E. (*) (*) refund of prior years expenditures. Total $50,207 $50,000 $50,000 $50,000 $50,000 SHORT TERM BORROWING No short term or long term General Fund borrowing is anticipated at this time. Page 4

6 WAGES The model reflects pay increases approved by the Board of Education for certificated, administrative and technical staff of 1.00% effective August 1, 2010; 1.25% effective August 1, 2011; 1.5% effective August 1, 2012; and estimates for wage increases through FY 2016 (Historical pattern). Increases and step & training increases are projected to grow as additional staff members are added, for school improvement plans and growth. Classified employees covered by the DSA agreement were granted increased of 1.0% for contract periods effective July 1, 2010; 1.25% effective July, 1, 2011; 1.50% effective July 1, 2012; and estimates have been included through FY This model also projects the following major assumptions for future operations of the district: FY12 Base includes approx $494,000 from GCOS FY12 & FY13 Reflects approx $2,300,000 in employee wage concessions FY12 reflects reductions in certified staffing. Base Wages $112,102,600 $114,653,877 $118,601,044 $122,236,156 $125,979,622 Increases 1,401,283 1,719,808 1,186,010 1,222,362 1,259,796 Steps & Training 2,129,949 2,178,424 2,253,420 2,322,487 2,393,613 Growth 172,472 74,092 86,826 88,128 89,450 Unfunded Grant Recapture 88, , , , ,146 Staff/Wage Reductions ($2,741,651) ($247,719) FRINGE BENEFIT ESTIMATES A) STRS/SERS will increase by 14% of wages paid. Total $113,152,923 $118,485,729 $122,236,156 $125,979,622 $129,834,627 Base Wages $15,692,187 $16,051,543 $16,604,146 $17,113,062 $17,637,147 Increases 196, , , , ,371 Steps & Training 298, , , , ,106 Growth 24,146 10,373 12,156 12,338 12,523 Unfunded Grant Recapture 12,358 15,015 15,240 15,468 15,700 STRS/SERS Pickup 752, , , , ,140 SERS Surcharge 267, , , , ,645 SERS Arrearage 268, , , Staff/Wage Reductions ($383,831) ($34,681) Total $17,127,539 $17,927,307 $18,505,915 $18,817,894 $19,416,633 Page 5

7 B) Increase is 4.28% for 2012 and Increase have been included through 2016 for 14%, for medical, dental and vision insurances which is the best data available at this time. Base Costs $17,818,941 $19,545,451 $21,525,178 $24,554,358 $28,007,857 Growth 13,798 5,927 6,946 7,050 7,156 Unfunded Grant Recapture 7,062 8,580 8,708 8,839 8,972 Inflation 1,812,398 1,965,220 3,013,525 3,437,610 3,921,100 WORKERS COMPENSATION Total $19,652,199 $21,525,178 $24,554,358 $28,007,857 $31,945,085 C) Workers compensation is expected to increase by 3.5% per year reflecting growth in wages. We will continue to explore options to our current group rating plan. Base Costs $404,270 $419,444 $434,838 $451,090 $467,927 Growth Unfunded Grant Recapture Total $405,260 $420,133 $435,836 $452,103 $468,955 D) Medicare will continue to increase along with salaries. Contributions are 1.45% for all new employees to the district since April 1, Base Costs $1,510,923 $1,567,719 $1,625,310 $1,685,133 $1,747,093 Growth 2,501 1,074 1,259 1,278 1,297 Unfunded Grant Recapture 1,280 1,555 1,578 1,602 1,626 Staff Reductions ($39,754) ($3,592) Total $1,514,704 $1,570,348 $1,628,148 $1,688,013 $1,750,016 SUMMARY OF FRINGE BENEFITS STRS/SERS $17,127,539 $17,927,307 $18,505,915 $18,817,894 $19,416,633 Insurance's 19,652,199 21,525,178 24,554,358 28,007,857 31,945,085 Workers Comp & Unemploy. 405, , , , ,955 Medicare 1,514,704 1,570,348 1,628,148 1,688,013 1,750,016 Other 200, , , , ,000 Total $38,899,702 $41,642,966 $45,324,256 $49,165,867 $53,780,688 Page 6

8 PURCHASED SERVICES The district has negotiated electric and gas service contracts and implemented an aggressive energy conservation program to help hold down energy cost increases. An overall inflation rate of 1% is being estimated for this category of expense. Base Services $7,280,634 $7,681,399 $7,911,841 $8,149,197 $8,393,673 GCOS 324, Bldg/Dept budget reduction MATERIALS AND SUPPLIES An overall inflation rate of 1% is being estimated for this category of expense. Total $7,605,346 $7,681,399 $7,911,841 $8,149,197 $8,393,673 Supplies $3,053,805 $3,084,343 $3,176,873 $3,272,180 $3,370,345 GCOS 990,842 2,084,398 2,084,398 2,084,398 2,084,398 GCOS - Carryover ADM Growth Bldg/Dept budget reduction EQUIPMENT An overall inflation rate of 1% is being estimated for this category of expense. Total $4,044,647 $5,168,741 $5,261,271 $5,356,578 $5,454,743 Capital Outlay $141,962 $143,382 $147,683 $152,114 $156,677 GCOS 40, Bldg/Dept budget reduction Total $181,962 $143,382 $147,683 $152,114 $156,677 Page 7

9 OTHER EXPENSES The category of Other Expenses consist mostly of Auditor & Treasurer fees and County Educational Service Center deductions for participation in the SB140 City/County agreement. Auditor and treasurer fees will increase sharply anytime a new operating levy is collected. Also new construction will cause A & T fees to increase as more tax dollars are collected. Other expenses $2,616,497 $2,758,812 $2,841,576 $2,926,824 $3,014,628 GCOS 115, Inc. A&T Levy Total $2,731,497 $2,758,812 $2,841,576 $2,926,824 $3,014,628 NON OPERATING EXPENSES This account group covers fund to fund transfers and end of year short term loans from the General Fund to other funds until they have received reimbursements and can repay the General Fund. Summer school costs have increased due to additional state mandated remediation of students struggling with achievement tests and because the Board of Education has departed from the policy of making summer school operate at a breakeven with fees collected. Athletic Transfer $67,921 $67,921 $67,921 $67,921 $67,921 Summer School 50,000 50,000 50,000 50,000 50,000 Sinking Fund 380, , , , ,000 Refund of Prior Year Receipt 4, Advances 50,000 50,000 50,000 50,000 50,000 TAX ANTICIPATION NOTE REPAYMENT No General Fund borrowing is planned in this five year projection. Total $552,251 $547,921 $547,921 $547,921 $547,921 ENCUMBRANCES These are outstanding purchase orders that have not been approved for payment as goods were not received in the fiscal year in which they were ordered. This is estimated to run about 1.55% of expenditures for the foreseeable future. ENDING UNENCUMBERED CASH BALANCE This amount must not go below $-0- or the district General Fund will violate all Ohio Budgetary Laws. Any multi-year contract which is knowingly signed which will cause a negative unencumbered cash balance is a violation of , ORC, punishable by personal liability of $10,000. Page 8