Paint Valley Local School District

Transcription

1 Paint Valley Local School District Financial Forecast Summary & Report May 5, 2016 Kristin O Dell, Treasurer Paint Valley Local Schools (kristin.odell@pvlsd.org) 1

2 Forecast Purpose This forecast is intended to assist the school district in the financial management of its resources. The forecast will provide trend information to help in the determination of local tax levy needs, union negotiations, program resource allocation, and overall effort to balance the district s budget. The forecast is also intended to provide insight into the future, rather than reaction to the past. This report includes information regarding key revenue and expenditure assumptions as well as the resulting implications. Particular attention should be given to not only the relationship of expenditures to revenue, but the rate of any adverse trend (expenditures exceeding revenue). Cash balance reserves should be recognized as the stabilizing resource that they are, rather than as a revenue source to support ongoing operations. Public Finance Resources, Inc. provides financial forecasting software and services to local government CFOs and Organizations. 2

3 Table of Contents Forecast Purpose... 2 Table of Contents... 3 Executive Summary... 4 Forecast Summary & Notes Revenue, Expenditures and Cash Balance... 5 Sources of Revenue and Annual Changes... 6 Significant Revenue Assumptions... 7 Types of Expenditures and Annual Change Significant Expenditure Assumptions Traditional Five Year Forecast Page Five Year Forecast Percentage View Enrollment Projections Forecast Compare Fiscal Year Fiscal Year

4 Executive Summary Revenue, Expenditures and Sustainability In FY2014 the District made difficult decisions to reduce staffing levels to achieve financial stability heading into FY2015. Obviously, these reductions impacted service levels within the District. As the District plans its future a very important question must be considered: What kind of service levels can be sustained? Balancing service levels with available resources can often be a difficult task because there are limitless needs when it comes to students. However, balancing service levels and resources over time can provide stability and insure fair opportunities across generations of children. Continually, monitoring the District s financial status will continue to be a very important process. Cash Balance and Stability The district is projected to remain stable through the interim forecast period ending June 30, The assumptions behind the financial forecast will lose some reliability over time thus an interim period of the current fiscal year plus two years is established. The 2018 forecast period provides the district with a valid benchmark of its revenue versus expenditures and the time to strategically construct a response. As the graph to the right reveals, the district s cash balance is anticipated remain adequate through June 30,

5 Revenue, Expenditures and Cash Balance $12,000,000 Revenue, Levies, Expenditures, and Cash Balance $10,000,000 10,054,353 9,309,171 $8,000,000 $6,000,000 $4,000,000 $2,000,000 $ Actual 2014Actual 2015Actual 2016Proj. 2017Proj. 2018Proj. 2019Proj. 2020Proj. Total Revenue Replace/Renew Levies New Levies Total Expenditures Cash Balance PROJECTED Total Revenue $10,976,183 $9,775,736 $9,677,761 $9,744,982 $9,651,554 Replace/Renew Levies $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 New Levies $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Total Expenditures $9,481,438 $9,542,696 $9,674,018 $9,919,193 $10,173,914 Revenue Over/(Under) Expenditures $1,494,744 $233,040 $3,743 ($174,211) ($522,361) Cash Balance $3,337,245 $3,570,286 $3,574,029 $3,399,818 $2,877,457 Note: Cash Balance Estimates Include Renewal Levies and is Stated Before Reservation and Encumbrance Deductions The district has made significant budget cuts from its 2013 spending level of $10,054,353. Fiscal year 2016 projected spending of $9,481,438 is more than $570,000 below 2013 levels. Further, this forecast does not project spending to exceed 2013 levels until 2020! Fiscal year 2016 revenue is artificially inflated by the transfer of $1.083 million from the District s health insurance reserve fund. Those same dollars are reflected as a reservation of fund balance on Line 9.03 of the 5 year forecast. The aforementioned spending cuts have enabled the district to balance revenue and expenditures, and to preserve some financial stability in the cash balance reserve. The forecast, anticipates the district trending toward revenue shortfalls by the end of the forecast period. Decisions to maintain stability will continue to need evaluated moving forward. 5

6 Sources of Revenue and Annual Changes Income Tax 0% Personal Property 1% Real Estate 14% 2011 State Foundation & Restricted 72% 2020 Income Tax 0% State Personal Property 1% Real Estate 17% Foundation & Restricted 71% Property Tax All Other Revenue 9% Allocation 4% All Other Revenue 8% Property Tax Allocation 3% Previous PROJECTED Projected 5 Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year 5 Year Average Average Annual % Annual % Real Estate 1.34% 0.09% 0.37% 0.57% 0.89% 2.25% 0.65% Personal Property % 1.53% 0.68% 2.25% 2.50% 2.50% 1.01% Income Tax 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% State Foundation & State Restricted 0.07% 0.16% 2.05% 1.80% 0.52% 2.22% 0.32% Prop Tax Allocation 2.78% 0.37% 0.64% 0.83% 0.91% 2.25% 1.00% All Other Revenue 3.02% 14.74% 10.25% 1.73% 1.71% 1.69% 1.92% Total Oper. Revenue 0.06% 0.93% 0.56% 1.03% 0.71% 0.98% 0.04% Note: Existing Renewal Levies Included as Renewed, No New Levies Included Line 1.07 Operating Revenue Only, Does not include Other Sources (Transfers, Advances, etc.) State Unrestricted (1.034), Restricted (1.04), and Prior Years' SFSF (1.045) = "State Foundation & State Restricted" State Foundation, State Restricted and Property Tax Allocation (all state revenue sources) make up nearly three quarters of the district's operating revenue. Revenue growth from these sources are expected to remain stagnate. Originally, foundation funding was expected to increase significantly this year. However, the District lost over $600,000 in economic disadvantaged funding when its school wide status was eliminated resulting in an economic disadvantaged percentage drop of over 40% (with school wide the percentage was over 90% and without it the percentage is just over 50%). Some growth in local tax collections is expected related to the county's anticipated reappraisal adjustments combined with small new construction increases. However, this category represents just 15% of district revenue. The overall revenue outlook for the District can be best described as subdued. Overall annual growth is anticipated to average less than.5% over the projected 5 year period. 6

7 Significant Revenue Assumptions I Real Estate Revenue is dependent upon valuations, tax rates, and collection (rate) performance by local taxpayers. 95.5% of Total Real Estate Revenue Gross Effective Effective Collection Real Property Year Over Year Residential Year Over Year Business Year Over Year Rate Tax Year Valuation Change Tax Rate Change Tax Rate Change All Taxes ,724, , % Actual ,960, , % Actual ,098,920 9,138, (0.01) % Actual ,963,500 (135,420) (0.00) % Actual ,503, , (1.53) 101.3% Actual ,682, , % Projected ,442, , % Projected ,352, , % Projected ,105,312 3,752, (0.13) % Projected Note: Tax Rates Include Existing Renewal Levies Included as Renewed, No New Levies Included Real Estate Revenue 4.5% of Total Real Estate Revenue $1,333,483 $1,378,951 $1,383,140 $1,479,948 $1,538,093 $1,536,645 $1,531,004 $1,539,694 $1,553,324 $1,588,282 Real estate property values grew in 2013 because of Ohio's new methodology for valuing agricultural (CAUV) property valuations remained consistent at 2013 levels. The district's Class I (residential/agricultural) tax rates are at the state of Ohio's minimum of 20 mills. Because the tax rates cannot be rolled back any further in response to inflation, the district does receive some revenue growth associated with the growing property value. Class II (commercial) tax rates are just above the 20.0 mill minimum, but this particular component of property only represents 4.0% of the district's total valuation and has little impact on overall collections. Gross tax collections over the past four tax years have actually exceeded the amount annually assessed. This can happen due to good collections of current taxes plus good collections of past delinquencies. The forecast assumes taxes will be collected at a near 99% gross collection rate. The rate, while high, will still force outstanding delinquencies owed the district to grow slightly each year. 7

8 Significant Revenue Assumptions II Public Utility Personal Property Tax Year Tax Rate Valuation $4,574,020 $4,426,390 $4,514,918 $4,627,791 $4,743,486 $4,862,073 Public Utility PP Revenue $126,520 $128,910 $137,456 $134,238 $137,133 $135,031 $134,120 $137,141 $140,569 $144,083 Public Utility Personal Property includes such items as power transmission lines and substations, as well as natural gas lines and similar public utility assets. Public utility values are expected to grow on average 2% to 3% per year. These estimated values applied to the District's full voted millage rate (30 mills), will produce the revenue estimates reflected in the above chart. With 8

9 Significant Revenue Assumptions III Property Tax Allocation Reimbursement for: Tangible Pers. Fixed Rate $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Tangible Pers Fixed Sum (Emerg.) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Reimbursement for Rollback and Homestead Real Estate $276,598 $276,695 $278,459 $280,782 $283,348 $289,726 Property Tax Allocation Revenue $324,212 $257,635 $266,198 $267,317 $275,682 $276,695 $278,459 $280,782 $283,348 $289,726 The district's property tax allocation revenue correlates with its real estate revenue. This category represents the state of Ohio's reimbursement to the district for the real estate discount program's rollback and homestead exemptions. The revenue is projected to grow slightly and parallel to the real estate revenue growth. 9

10 Significant Revenue Assumptions IV Foundation and Restricted State Funding Funded Enrollment Valuation Per Pupil $96,641 $100,062 $102,010 $105,742 $108,222 Per Pupil Core Funding $5,900 $6,000 $6,100 $6,200 $6,300 State's Share 65.0% 65.0% 64.3% 64.3% 64.1% Net Per Pupil (State Share) $3,835 $3,900 $3,924 $3,988 $4, Core Foundation Funding $2,894,318 $3,208,005 $3,222,024 $3,139,209 $3,140,735 $3,044,305 All Other State Funding $3,009,552 $3,351,030 $3,479,661 $3,444,080 $3,480,782 $3,434,112 Restricted State Funding $816,201 $191,325 $187,210 $181,352 $178,423 $170,892 Foundation and Restricted State Funding $6,841,888 $7,157,003 $6,670,071 $7,190,279 $6,761,410 $6,750,360 $6,888,895 $6,764,641 $6,799,939 $6,649,308 The State adopted a new biennial budget to direct funding to schools in FY2016 and FY2017. The core formula relies upon a state share calculation that uses a combination of valuation per pupil and median income perpupil. The District s state share percentage is expected to remain relatively consistent over the projection period at around 65%. Based upon current enrollment counts, the District s funded enrollment is approximately 16 students lower this school year (FY2016) than last. The District s enrollment is expected to continue to trend down over the forecast period primarily due to birth data that suggests incoming Kindergarten classes will be approximately 25 to 35 students lower than outgoing senior classes (see enrollment supplement). **Despite the consistent core aid projection, a new component in the funding formula termed Capacity Aid is expected to supply more than $800,000 in additional funding annually to the District. Paint Valley qualifies for this aid because its yield per mill is projected to range between $91,000 and $101,000 over the forecast period. This level is significantly less than the statewide threshold to qualify which is approximately $220,000. The district also benefits from the targeted assistance supplement which directs more funding to District s that have a large agricultural base. These two sources are the main reasons why Paint Valley s funding is expected to transition from a guarantee status in FY16 to a formula funded status in FY17 and beyond. 10

11 Significant Revenue Assumptions V All Other Revenue Total $789,119 $687,788 $789,158 $708,258 $720,503 $732,801 $745,153 Other Revenue $855,096 $813,366 $800,180 $789,119 $687,788 $789,158 $708,258 $720,503 $732,801 $745,153 Revenue generated from the District's open enrollment accounts for a large part of other revenue. Open enrollment peaked in 2011 at 120 students generating $695,000 of the category's $855,096 total. The tuition for these non resident students to attend the Paint Valley School District is paid by the student's resident district. In FY2016, 101 open enrolled students are attending classes in the District. This level of incoming open enrollment is expected to generate $593,446 of the category's $789,158 fiscal year total. The forecast assumes 96 incoming students from FY2017 FY2020. Other components of this category are expected to grow annually by modest inflationary trends. 11

12 Significant Revenue Assumptions VI Non Operating Revenue Sources Transfers In $133,156 $148,817 $1,368,567 $230,000 $230,000 $230,000 $230,000 Advances In $0 $1,059 $61,422 $0 $0 $0 $0 Other Financing Sources $50,365 $57,055 $58,304 $5,000 $5,000 $5,000 $5,000 Debt $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Non Operating Revenue Sources Non $226,430 $78,892 $49,884 $183,521 $206,931 $1,488,293 $235,000 $235,000 $235,000 $235,000 $226,430 $78,892 $49,884 $183,521 $206,931 $235,000 $235,000 $235,000 $235,000 $1,488, reflects the $1.083 million from the District s health insurance reserve fund to the General Fund. Obviously, this one time occurrence explains the spike in the graphic above. Currently the entire amount is reflected as a reservation on Line 9.03 of the forecast. When and if the reserved money is spent the reservation will be reduced by a corresponding amount. Other non operating revenue reflected in this category is primarily comprised of the return of funds temporarily loaned to other funds such as grants. In addition to the typical advance returns, the district received refunds from Workers Comp and SERS that provided $63,609 in 2015, and another $58,304 in The forecast assumes $150,000 in textbook and technology set asides and another $80,000 for ROTC transfers for FY2107 through FY2019. These transfers are offset by equal transfers out reflected on the expenditure side of the ledger, so the two sides of the transactions wash. 12

13 Types of Expenditures and Annual Change 2011 Benefits 20% 2020 Benefits 21% Salaries 53% Purch Serv 21% Salaries 47% Purch Serv 21% Other Exp 1% Capital Outlay 1% Supp & Mat 4% Supp & Mat 3% Capital Outlay 1% Other Exp 7% Previous Projected Projected 5 Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year 5 Year Average Average Annual % Annual % Salaries 2.72% 2.98% 2.12% 2.86% 2.21% 2.21% 1.29% Benefits & Retirement 0.73% 7.55% 0.09% 1.82% 5.06% 5.15% 3.17% Purchased Services 3.51% 3.19% 1.93% 1.82% 1.80% 1.79% 0.83% Supplies and Materials 3.12% 20.54% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 5.71% Capital Outlay 40.32% % 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 37.02% Debt and Intergov. Pmts n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a All Other Exp % 0.27% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 1.55% Operating Expenditures 0.60% 0.82% 1.61% 1.58% 2.66% 2.69% 1.87% Expenditures for the prior 5 year period actually averaged an annual reduction of 0.6%. Expenditures were contained in an effort to achieve financial stability in the post recessionary period. Spending is expected to continue to be held in check and only reflect a modest 1.87% increase per year through the period ending June 30, Noteworthy assumptions include stable staffing despite significant programmatic reductions over the past 5 years and a move to a high deductible health insurance plan. The savings achieved from the health insurance change position the district to afford modest base wage increases. These wage increases come after years of wage base wage freezes. 13

14 Significant Expenditure Assumptions I Salaries Total $5,085,033 $4,209,123 $4,339,799 $4,210,549 $4,299,900 $4,423,038 $4,520,964 $4,621,058 Annual Dollar Increase $875,910 $130,676 $129,250 $89,351 $123,138 $97,926 $100,094 Annual Percent Growth 17.23% 3.10% 2.98% 2.12% 2.86% 2.21% 2.21% $400,000 $200,000 $0 $200,000 $400,000 $600,000 $800,000 Salaries Year Over Year Dollar ($) Change $1,000,000 Projected History Enrollment Change Compared to Staffing Change Student Employee % Change % Change , , % % , % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % Salaries decreased 17% in 2014 because of staffing reductions in response to the economy and the District's budget. Despite restoring a couple positions in FY16, salaries still realized a small reduction thanks to higher paid retiring staff being replaced by lower paid less experienced staff. Overall staffing levels are projected to hold steady at the FY2016 levels of 100 full time equivalency (FTE) through the remaining years of the forecast ending June 30, The District s management and Bargaining unit is working collaboratively to conclude negotiations which will be critical to the District s future financial stability. The forecast assumes base wage increases of 4%, 2%, and 1% respectively for the three year period beginning FY2017. It is worth mentioning, these increases are only achievable in combination with a move from the District s current traditional health insurance program to a new high deductible plan. 14

15 Significant Expenditure Assumptions II Benefits Health Insurance $ Chg $47,739 $199,029 $26,440 $54,706 $77,718 $83,935 Health Insurance % Chg 5.3% 20.8% 2.3% 4.9% 7.2% 7.3% Health Insurance $906,882 $954,621 $1,153,650 $1,127,209 $1,072,503 $1,150,221 $1,234,156 All Other Benefits $807,616 $803,581 $737,319 $762,017 $782,274 $798,382 $814,848 Total $1,714,498 $1,758,202 $1,890,969 $1,889,227 $1,854,777 $1,948,604 $2,049,004 Benefits Year Over Year Percentage (%) Change 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% Year over Year Expenditure Variance Actual 5 Year Average Projected 5 Year Average $3,000 $2,500 $2,000 $1,500 $1,000 $500 $0 Per Pupil Fringe Benefit Expenditures for General Fund $1,795 $1,926 $2,157 $1,961 $1,854 $1,938 $2,166 $2,212 $2,245 $2,400 $2, The Fiscal 2013 and 2014 expenditure levels decreased in part because of staffing reductions and fewer insured employees. Fiscal 2016 reflects the impact of additional plans related to the restoration of a couple of additional staff members. Beginning in FY2017 the forecast assumes the implementation of a new high deductible health insurance plan. The new plan includes diminishing Board contributions to employee health savings accounts and assumes 8% premium increases beginning in FY2018. At these conservative estimates, the cost of the overall health insurance program is expected to remain in check the next couple of years giving the District the opportunity to afford the aforementioned modest base wage increases for employees. 15

16 Significant Expenditure Assumptions III Purchased Services Comm. School Tuition $292,431 $267,220 $265,994 $276,441 $281,052 $285,663 $290,274 Open Enrollment Out $767,962 $745,964 $806,447 $816,000 $829,600 $843,200 $856,800 Scholarships & Transfers $4,145 $5,654 $5,767 $5,883 $6,000 $6,120 $6,243 Other $1,446,934 $997,068 $873,396 $890,864 $908,681 $926,855 $945,392 Total $2,511,472 $2,015,906 $1,951,604 $1,989,188 $2,025,333 $2,061,838 $2,098,709 YOY $$ Change $484,983 $495,566 $64,302 $37,583 $36,146 $36,505 $36,871 YOY % Change 23.9% 19.7% 3.2% 1.9% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% Purchased Services Year Over Year Percentage (%) Change Year over Year Expenditure Variance Actual 5 Year Average Projected 5 Year Average This category exhibits some recent variation. For example expenditures in FY11 and FY12 had been growing, but then dipped in FY13. That dip was related to an accounting change which moved County Educational Service Center charges from this category (Line 3.03 of the forecast) to Other objects (Line 4.30 of the forecast). About $350,000 of the spike noted in FY14 was related to charges associated with the recent energy project performed with TMI energy. Since the TMI charges reflect one time spending, FY15 reflects a return to more typical levels. FY16 through FY20 assumes normal inflationary growth and stable outgoing open enrollment (136) and community school students (36). 16

17 Significant Expenditure Assumptions IV Supplies and Materials Total $282,156 $269,637 $325,030 $331,530 $338,161 $344,924 $351,823 Supplies and Materials $282,156 $269,637 $325,030 $331,530 $338,161 $344,924 $351, Supplies & Materials Year Over Year Percentage (%) Change 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% Year over Year Expenditure Variance Actual 5 Year Average Projected 5 Year Average After of years of restrained spending (FY11 through FY15), additional funding is necessary to replace essential supplies and textbooks which have been neglected. Expenditure estimates for FY17 FY20 reflect normal inflationary trend utilizing FY16 as the basis moving forward. 17

18 Significant Expenditure Assumptions V Capital Outlay Total $33,964 $45,691 $126,605 $129,137 $131,720 $134,354 $137,041 Capital Outlay $33,964 $45,691 $126,605 $129,137 $131,720 $134,354 $137, Capital Outlay Year Over Year Dollar ($) Change $250,000 $200,000 $150,000 $100,000 $50,000 $0 $50,000 $100,000 $150,000 $200,000 $250,000 $300,000 Most capital purchases are accomplished through the District's Permanent Improvement Fund. However, one bus is expected to be purchased from General fund dollars in FY16 through FY20. Another bus is expected to be purchased by PI dollars in at least the first year. These purchases are expected to help replenish the District's fleet. 18

19 Significant Expenditure Assumptions VI Other Operating Expenditures Intergovernmental, Debt & Interest $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Other Objects $475,765 $603,318 $601,681 $613,714 $625,989 $638,509 $651,279 Other Operating Expenditures ### $167,904 $452,931 $475,765 $603,318 $601,681 $613,714 $625,989 $638,509 $651,279 $141,628 $167,904 $452,931 $475,765 $603,318 $601,681 $613,714 $625,989 $638,509 $651,279 As mentioned in the Purchased Services narrative, the spending increase noted in FY13 is related to an accounting change. County ESC charges are now recorded in this category's totals instead of Purchased Services. FY16 reflects a reduction in costs primarily related to a reduction in contracted services through the ESC. FY17 through FY20 estimates reflect normal inflationary trends utilizing FY16 as the base. 19

20 Significant Expenditure Assumptions VII Non Operating Uses Advances Out $1,059 $61,422 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Transfers Out $173,729 $215,336 $375,000 $290,000 $275,000 $270,000 $265,000 Other Financing Uses $0 $140 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Non Operating Uses ### $68,603 $55,000 $174,788 $276,618 $375,000 $290,000 $275,000 $270,000 $265,000 $253,420 $68,603 $55,000 $174,788 $276,618 $375,000 $290,000 $275,000 $270,000 $265,000 Transfers to other funds, such as transfers to the District's technology and supply set aside fund, ROTC Fund, athletic funds and pay to participate funds, are recorded in this category. The District also made an additional $120,000 transfer in FY15 to cover shortfalls in its Cafeteria Fund related to operating a school wide free lunch program. FY16 includes higher levels of transfers to address technology and supply needs which had been neglected during the economic downturn. While remaining to prioritize these areas, a gradual reduction of these type transfers is anticipated for the projected period FY17 through FY20. 20

21 Paint Valley Local Schools Schedule Of Revenue, Expenditures and Changes In Fund Balances Actual and Forecasted Operating Fund ACTUAL FORECASTED Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Revenue: General Property Tax (Real Estate) 1,383,140 1,479,948 1,538,093 1,536,645 1,531,004 1,539,694 1,553,324 1,588, Public Utility Personal Property 137, , , , , , , , Income Tax Unrestricted Grants in Aid 6,615,286 6,355,060 5,945,207 6,559,035 6,701,686 6,583,289 6,621,516 6,478, Restricted Grants in Aid 835, , , , , , , Restricted Federal Grants in Aid SFSF 54, Property Tax Allocation 266, , , , , , , , All Other Operating Revenues 800, , , , , , , , Total Revenue 9,257,045 9,860,901 9,400,106 9,487,890 9,540,736 9,442,761 9,509,982 9,416,554 Other Financing Sources: Proceeds from Sale of Notes State Emergency Loans and Advancements Operating Transfers In 40, , ,817 1,368, , , , , Advances In 1,059 61, All Other Financing Sources 9,884 50,365 57,055 58,304 5,000 5,000 5,000 5, Total Other Financing Sources 49, , ,931 1,488, , , , , Total Revenues and Other Financing Sources 9,306,929 10,044,422 9,607,037 10,976,183 9,775,736 9,677,761 9,744,982 9,651,554 Expenditures: Personnel Services 5,085,033 4,209,123 4,339,799 4,210,549 4,299,900 4,423,038 4,520,964 4,621, Employees' Retirement/Insurance Benefits 1,907,769 1,714,498 1,758,202 1,890,969 1,889,227 1,854,777 1,948,604 2,049, Purchased Services 2,026,489 2,511,472 2,015,906 1,951,604 1,989,188 2,025,333 2,061,838 2,098, Supplies and Materials 253, , , , , , , , Capital Outlay 273,712 33,964 45, , , , , , Intergovernmental Debt Service: Principal All Years Principal Notes Principal State Loans Principal State Advances Principal HB264 Loan Principal Other Interest and Fiscal Charges Other Objects 452, , , , , , , , Total Expenditures 9,999,353 9,226,978 9,032,553 9,106,438 9,252,696 9,399,018 9,649,193 9,908,914 Other Financing Uses Operating Transfers Out 55, , , , , , , , Advances Out 1,059 61, All Other Financing Uses (140) Total Other Financing Uses 55, , , , , , , , Total Expenditures and Other Financing Uses 10,054,353 9,401,766 9,309,171 9,481,438 9,542,696 9,674,018 9,919,193 10,173,914 Excess of Rev & Other Financing Uses Over (Under) Expenditures and Other Financing Uses (747,424) 642, ,866 1,494, ,040 3,743 (174,211) (522,361) Cash Balance July 1 Excluding Proposed Renewal/ Replacement and New Levies 1,649, ,979 1,544,635 1,842,501 3,337,245 3,570,286 3,574,029 3,399, Cash Balance June ,979 1,544,635 1,842,501 3,337,245 3,570,286 3,574,029 3,399,818 2,877, Estimated Encumbrances June 30 57,024 92, , , , , , ,000 Reservations of Fund Balance: Textbooks and Instructional Materials Capital Improvements Budget Reserve 1,083,567 1,083,567 1,083,567 1,083,567 1,083, DPIA Debt Service Property Tax Advances Bus Purchases Subtotal 1,083,567 1,083,567 1,083,567 1,083,567 1,083,567 Fund Balance June 30 for Certification of Appropriations 844,955 1,452,071 1,646,681 2,153,678 2,386,718 2,390,461 2,216,250 1,693,889 Rev from Replacement/Renewal Levies Income Tax Renewal Property Tax Renewal or Replacement Cumulative Balance of Replacement/Renewal Levies Fund Balance June 30 for Certification of Contracts, Salary and Other Obligations 844,955 1,452,071 1,646,681 2,153,678 2,386,718 2,390,461 2,216,250 1,693,889 Revenue from New Levies Income Tax New Property Tax New Cumulative Balance of New Levies Revenue from Future State Advancements Unreserved Fund Balance June ,955 1,452,071 1,646,681 2,153,678 2,386,718 2,390,461 2,216,250 1,693,889 ADM Forecasts Kindergarten Grades

22 Five Year Percent Changes Five Year Average Paint Valley Local Schools Prev. 5 Year PROJECTED 5 Year Avg. Annual Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Avg. Annual Change Change Revenue: General Property Tax (Real Estate) 1.43% 0.09% 0.37% 0.57% 0.89% 2.25% 0.65% Public Utility Personal Property % 1.53% 0.68% 2.25% 2.50% 2.50% 1.01% Income Tax n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a Unrestricted Grants in Aid 1.17% 10.32% 2.17% 1.77% 0.58% 2.16% 1.83% Restricted Grants in Aid 25.40% 76.56% 2.15% 3.13% 1.62% 4.22% 17.54% Restricted Federal Grants in Aid SFSF 50.28% n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a Property Tax Allocation 2.48% 0.37% 0.64% 0.83% 0.91% 2.25% 1.00% All Other Operating Revenues 3.03% 14.74% 10.25% 1.73% 1.71% 1.69% 1.92% Total Revenue 0.15% 0.93% 0.56% 1.03% 0.71% 0.98% 0.04% Proceeds from Sale of Notes n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a State Emergency Loans and Advancements n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a Operating Transfers In 29.50% % 83.19% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% % Advances In 93.17% % % n/a n/a n/a % All Other Financing Sources % 2.19% 91.42% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 17.85% Total Other Financing Sources 35.21% % 84.21% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% % Total Revenues and Other Financing Sources 0.11% 14.25% 10.94% 1.00% 0.69% 0.96% 0.41% Expenditures: Personnel Services 2.72% 2.98% 2.12% 2.86% 2.21% 2.21% 1.29% Employees' Retirement/Insurance Benefits 0.73% 7.55% 0.09% 1.82% 5.06% 5.15% 3.17% Purchased Services 3.51% 3.19% 1.93% 1.82% 1.80% 1.79% 0.83% Supplies and Materials 3.12% 20.54% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 5.71% Capital Outlay 40.32% % 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 37.02% Intergovernmental n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a Principal, Interest & Fiscal Charges n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a Other Objects 41.15% 0.27% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 1.55% Total Expenditures 0.60% 0.82% 1.61% 1.58% 2.66% 2.69% 1.87% Operating Transfers Out 29.54% 74.15% 22.67% 5.17% 1.82% 1.85% 8.53% Advances Out % % n/a n/a n/a n/a % All Other Financing Uses % % n/a n/a n/a n/a % Total Other Financing Uses 36.47% 35.57% 22.67% 5.17% 1.82% 1.85% 0.81% Total Expenditures and Other Financing Uses 0.56% 1.85% 0.65% 1.38% 2.53% 2.57% 1.80% Excess of Rev & Other Financing Uses Over (Under) Expenditures and Other Financing Uses % % 84.41% 98.39% % % % Cash Balance July 1 Excluding Proposed Renewal/ Replacement and New Levies 2.83% 19.28% 81.13% 6.98% 0.10% 4.87% 20.52% Cash Balance June % 81.13% 6.98% 0.10% 4.87% 15.36% 13.59% 22

23 Head Count Summary/Analysis Paint Valley Local Schools Prior Year Actual/Estimated Enrollment (October Count) Projected Changes to Prior Year Enrollment Net All Grade Level Mobility Factor (Change) to Prior Year Net Aggregate Manual Adjustments to Mobility Factor New Kindergartners In Loss of Seniors from Prior Year Net Change in Outgoing and Incoming Pupils Current Year Estimated Enrollment (Simulated October Count) District Head Count Grade K , Total Can Differ by Rounding Year Over Year Percentage Change 3.75% 2.18% 3.28% 1.69% 4.43% Historic vs. Projected Enrollment 1,200 1, , , ,203 1,193 1,183 1,181 1,068 1,041 1,038 1, P 2017 P 2018 P 2019 P 2020 P P 2017 P 2018 P 2019 P 2020 P 23

24 Paint Valley Local School District Comparison of Previous Forecast Amounts to Current Fiscal Year 2016 Forecasted Amounts Column A Column B Column C Column D Previous Current Dollar Percent Forecast Forecast Difference Difference Amounts For Amounts For Between Between F.Y F.Y Previous Previous Prepared on: Prepared on: and and Revenue: 10/9/2015 5/2/2016 Current Current 1 Real Estate & Property Allocation $1,790,012 $1,813,340 $23, % 2 Public Utility Personal Property $138,295 $135,031 $3, % 3 Income Tax $0 $0 $0 n/a 4 State Foundation Restricted & Unrestricted $7,901,560 $6,750,360 $1,151, % 5 Other Revenue $655,510 $789,158 $133, % 6 Other Non Operating Revenue $334,726 $1,488,293 $1,153, % 7 Total Revenue $10,820,103 $10,976,183 $156, % Expenditures: 8 Salaries $4,514,678 $4,210,549 $304, % 9 Fringe Benefits $1,985,998 $1,890,969 $95, % 10 Purchased Services $2,071,892 $1,951,604 $120, % 11 Supplies,Debt, Capital Outlay & Other $1,083,625 $1,053,315 $30, % 12 Other Non Operating Expenditures $305,000 $375,000 $70, % 13 Total Expenditures $9,961,194 $9,481,438 $479, % 14 Revenue Over/(Under) Expenditures $858,909 $1,494,744 $635, % 15 Ending Cash Balance $2,701,410 $3,337,245 $635, % Obviously the major difference between the forecast filed in the fall and the current forecast relates to the significant drop in estimated state funding revenue. The District lost over $600,000 in economic disadvantaged funding when its school wide status was eliminated resulting in an economic disadvantaged percentage drop of over 40% (with school wide the percentage was over 90% and without it the percentage is just over 50%). Additionally, the District s enrollment ended much lower than preliminary counts initially indicated. On the spending side of the ledger, the District was able to offset about half of the revenue loss in spending savings. Both salaries and fringe benefit spending were the main contributors of overall savings. 24

25 Paint Valley Local School District Comparison of Previous Forecast Amounts to Current Fiscal Year 2017 Forecasted Amounts Column A Column B Column C Column D Previous Current Dollar Percent Forecast Forecast Difference Difference Amounts For Amounts For Between Between F.Y F.Y Previous Previous Prepared on: Prepared on: and and Revenue: 10/9/2015 5/2/2016 Current Current 1 Real Estate & Property Allocation $1,814,775 $1,809,463 $5, % 2 Public Utility Personal Property $142,751 $134,120 $8, % 3 Income Tax $0 $0 $0 n/a 4 State Foundation Restricted & Unrestricted $8,242,786 $6,888,895 $1,353, % 5 Other Revenue $667,109 $708,258 $41, % 6 Other Non Operating Revenue $185,000 $235,000 $50, % 7 Total Revenue $11,052,419 $9,775,736 $1,276, % Expenditures: 8 Salaries $4,586,258 $4,299,900 $286, % 9 Fringe Benefits $2,089,120 $1,889,227 $199, % 10 Purchased Services $2,110,055 $1,989,188 $120, % 11 Supplies,Debt, Capital Outlay & Other $1,105,298 $1,074,382 $30, % 12 Other Non Operating Expenditures $240,000 $290,000 $50, % 13 Total Expenditures $10,130,731 $9,542,696 $588, % 14 Revenue Over/(Under) Expenditures $921,688 $233,040 $688, % 15 Ending Cash Balance $3,623,098 $3,570,286 $52, % Both trends (revenue and expenditure), carried forward and resulted in modification to the forecast's overall trends. 25