Five Year Forecast Financial Report

Transcription

1 Five Year Forecast Financial Report October,

2 Table of Contents Table of Contents 2 Executive Summary 3 PAGE # Revenue Overview General Property Tax (Real Estate) Public Utility Personal Property Income Tax Unrestricted Grants in Aid & Restricted Grants in Aid Property Tax Allocation All Other Operating Revenues Total Other Financing Sources 12 Expenditures Overview Personnel Services Employee Benefits Purchased Services Supplies and Materials Capital Outlay Intergovernmental & Debt Other Objects Total Other Financing Uses 21 Forecast Compare 22 Five Year Forecast 23 Forecast Purpose/Objectives Ohio Department of Education's purposes/objectives for the five year forecast are: To engage the local board of education and the community in the long range planning and discussions of financial issues facing the school district. To serve as a basis for determining the school district's ability to sign the certificate required by O.R.C , commonly known as the "412 certificate." To provide a method for the Department of Education and Auditor of State to identify school districts with potential financial problems. 2

3 October, 2016 Executive Summary Five Year Forecast Simplified Statement Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Beginning Balance 9,716,873 9,835,532 9,532,549 8,799,797 7,638,727 + Revenue 15,673,093 15,977,951 16,238,684 16,461,036 16,726,320 + Proposed Renew/Replacement Levies + Proposed New Levies Expenditures (15,554,434) (16,280,933) (16,971,436) (17,622,105) (18,557,487) = Revenue Surplus or Deficit 118,659 (302,983) (732,752) (1,161,070) (1,831,167) Ending Balance 9,835,532 9,532,549 8,799,797 7,638,727 5,807,560 Revenue Surplus or Deficit w/o Levies 118,659 (302,983) (732,752) (1,161,070) (1,831,167) Ending Balance w/o Levies 9,835,532 9,532,549 8,799,797 7,638,727 5,807,560 Summary: The five year forecast uses historical data combined with current trends to make projections. Although the District tries to account for as much information as possible, there are still many unknowns that could have a significant impact on this forecast. The data contained in this report is based on the information that is available today, as described in the notes and assumptions. The executive summary is simply a condensed version of the full forecast. It shows the five projected years of revenue, expenditures, surplus or deficit, and ending cash balance. The District uses a recommended 60 days cash balance, which is about $3 million. Although the projections show deficit spending beginning in fiscal year 2018, the District is projecting to exceed that recommended cash balance by almost $3 million at the end of fiscal year What this means for our tax payers is that we do not see the need for an operating levy through the life of this forecast. $20,000,000 $18,000,000 $16,000,000 $14,000,000 $12,000,000 $10,000,000 $8,000,000 $6,000,000 $4,000,000 $2,000,000 Revenue vs. Expenditures $15,554,434 $16,280,933 $16,971,436 $17,622,105 $18,557,487 $15,673,093 $15,977,951 $16,238,684 $16,461,036 $16,726, Revenue Renew/Replacement Levies New Levies Expenditures 3

4 Revenue Overview Prev. 5 Year PROJECTED 5 Year Avg. Annual Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Avg. Annual Change Change Revenue: Real Estate 4.20% 3.10% 1.58% 0.36% 0.03% 0.32% 0.16% Public Utility 6.93% 4.79% 5.27% 5.21% 3.49% 4.01% 4.56% Income Tax n/a 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% State Funding 5.24% 0.78% 3.87% 4.80% 4.96% 4.78% 3.84% Restricted Aid % 19.08% 2.95% 0.71% 0.47% 0.53% 4.56% Restr Federal SFSF 87.59% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% Property Tax Alloc 10.15% 0.53% 0.29% 0.19% 0.02% 0.23% 0.03% All Other Operating 2.68% 1.85% 1.11% 1.07% 1.08% 1.10% 1.24% Total Revenue 2.00% 1.34% 2.10% 1.63% 1.39% 1.61% 1.08% Total Other Sources % 72.99% 88.81% 0.00% % #DIV/0! 0.00% Total Rev & Other Srcs 2.11% 1.78% 1.95% 1.63% 1.37% 1.61% 0.95% Over the forecast period, the District is projecting almost no new revenue. Local taxes make up a majority of the District's revenue and this area is not expected to grow due to the District being landlocked and fully developed. The District has benefited from the new state funding formula, but beyond the current biennium it is difficult to project this line item. It is important to note that we projecting a 1.12% increase in total revenue compared to 2% historical average. The reason for this is because real estate collections were up in fiscal year 2016 compared to prior years and this is not projected to continue. This is an area that has the potential to change, but based on historical collections we would see a slight decrease in fiscal year Real Estate 57.0% 53.9% Public Public Utility 5.9% Utility 7.1% Income Tax 5.9% Real Estate State Funding 23.2% 26.7% Income 57.0% Prop Tax Allo 7.2% 6.9% Tax All Othr Op Re 6.0% 5.4% Othr Sources 0.6% State Funding 23.2% Real Estate 53.9% 2021 State Funding 26.7% Public Utility 7.1% Income Tax Othr Sources 0.6% All Othr Op Rev 6.0% Prop Tax Alloc 7.2% Othr Sources All Othr Op Rev 5.4% Prop Tax Alloc 6.9% 4

5 1.010 General Property Tax (Real Estate) Revenue collected from taxes levied by a school district by the assessed valuation of real property using effective tax rates for class I (residential/agricultural) and class II (business). FY 2016 Real Estate as a % Projected General Property RevRenewal Tax (Real Levy Estate) Revenue Actual and Projected of Total Revenue $10,000, $7,369,594 $1 FY 2016 Rea 2013 $7,418,546 $8,000, $8,310,769 $6,000, $8,949, $9,101,584 $4,000, $8,818, $8,958, % $2,000, $8,991, $8,993, $9,022, Projected Revenue Renewal Levy Revenue $7,369,594 $7,418,546 $8,310,769 $8,949,349 $9,101,584 $8,818,993 $8,958,573 $8,991,219 $8,993,874 $9,022,333 General property tax (real estate) flows to the district through the County Auditor's Office. The amounts for the current fiscal year are based on actual collections from advance payments, but at this time the District has not received the fall settlement payment. Fiscal year 2015 is the first year to include the full impact of the levy passed in November The Auditor calculates his estimates based on collections of approximately 96% of the District's property tax duplicate. In addition, we have accounted for an estimate of delinquencies to be collected. Future fiscal years are based on current housing market trends. The triennial update in 2014 resulted in a small net increase in values for taxes collected in calendar year It is believed that values will decrease slightly between the years of fiscal year 2016 and fiscal year The increases for fiscal year 2018, 2019, and 2020 are reflective of the reappraisal in During the update in 2014, values rose by 0.37%. Based on the slow recovery of the housing market, the District is predicting small decreases followed by slight increases in valuation over the life of the forecast. 14.0% 12.0% 1 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 2.0% 4.0% Year over Year Revenue Trend Year over Actual 5 YeProjected 5 Year Average % 4.20% % 4.20% % 4.20% % 4.20% % 4.20% % 0.16% 4.20% % 0.16% % 0.16% % 0.16% % 0.16% 0.16% Year over Year Revenue Variance Actual 5 Year Average Projected 5 Year Average *Projected % trends include renewal levies 5

6 1.020 Public Utility Personal Property Revenue generated from public utility personal property valuations multiplied by the district's full voted tax rate. FY 2016 Public Utility as a Projected Tangible RevRenewal Personal Property Levy Tax Revenue Actual and Projected FY 2016 % Pub of Total Revenue $1,400, $600,492 $600,492 $1,200, $710,466 $710, $811,375 $811,375 $1,000, $894,263 $894, % $800, $948,193 $948,193 $600, $993,566 $993,566 $400, $1,045,972 $1,045, $1,100,474 $1,100,474 $200, $1,138,883 $1,138, $1,184,607 $1,184,607 Projected Revenue Renewal Levy Revenue $600,492 $710,466 $811,375 $894,263 $948,193 $993,566 $1,045,972 $1,100,474 $1,138,883 $1,184,607 Over the past five years, public utility personal property has increased by 6.93%. The projections for FY17 FY21 are based on these historical increases combined with the expected increases from reappraisal in The District no longer receives tangible personal property tax revenue which was previously recorded on this line item % 1 5.0% 5.0% % % Year over Year Revenue Trend Year over Actual 5 YeProjected 5 Year Average % 6.93% % 6.93% % 6.93% % 6.93% % 6.93% % 4.56% % 4.56% % 4.56% % 4.56% % 4.56% 4.56% Year over Year Revenue Variance Actual 5 Year Average Projected 5 Year Average *Projected % trends include renewal levies 6

7 1.030 Income Tax Revenue collected from income tax earmarked specifically to support schools with a voter approved tax by residents of the school district; separate from federal, state and municipal income taxes. FY 2016 Income Tax as a % Projected RevRenewal Income Tax Actual Levy and Revenue Projected FY 2016 of Inco Total Revenue 0 $ $1 $ Projected Revenue Renewal Levy Revenue $ $ $ $ $ The District does not have an income tax % Year over Year Revenue Trend Year over Actual 5 YeProjected 5 Year Average 2012 n/a #DIV/0! 2013 n/a #DIV/0! 2014 n/a #DIV/0! 2015 n/a #DIV/0! 2016 n/a #DIV/0! % 0.00% % 0.00% % 0.00% % 0.00% % 0.00% 0.00% Year over Year Revenue Variance Actual 5 Year Average Projected 5 Year Average *Projected % trends include renewal levies 7

8 1.035 Unrestricted Grants in Aid Funds received through the State Foundation Program with no restriction. FY 2016 Unres State Aid as a % of Total Revenue FY 2016 Unr % $5,000,000 $4,500,000 $4,000,000 $3,500,000 $3,000,000 $2,500,000 $2,000,000 $1,500,000 $1,000,000 $500,000 Unrestricted Grants in Aid Actual and Projected $2,804,153 $2,970,992 $3,183,001 $3,442,494 $3,590,461 $3,618,292 $3,758,208 $3,938,617 $4,133,817 $4,331,614 State aid is projected to increase slightly in fiscal year The current funding model approved by the State Legislature provides more assistance in the basic aid for smaller, low wealth school districts. The District is currently on the formula, but is projected to move to the growth cap in FY18 FY21. The District is estimating slow growth in enrollment, which combined with slight increases in valuation have resulted in an increase in the state share index over the life of the forecast. For FY17, the District anticipates the state share index to be 34.1%, which equates to $2048 of the total $6000 core funding per pupil. 9.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% Year over Year Revenue Trend 5.24% 3.84% Year over Year Revenue Variance Actual 5 Year Average Projected 5 Year Average 8

9 1.040 & Restricted Grants in Aid Funds received through the State Foundation Program or other allocations that are restricted for specific purposes. FY 2016 Rest State Aid as a % of Total Revenue FY 2016 Res 0 $250,000 $200,000 Restricted Grants in Aid Actual and Projected 0.7% $150,000 $100,000 $50,000 $90,061 $11,626 $153,484 $193,781 $110,984 $132,159 $136,056 $137,021 $136,378 $137,101 This line item includes revenue such as reimbursement for special education catastrophic cost, as well as economically disadvantaged, and career tech funds from the Foundation. Deer Park received only $5,833 in fiscal year 2013 for fiscal year 2012 for catastrophic reimbursements and did not receive funds in fiscal year 2014 due to the implementation of a new submission system. Starting in fiscal year 2014 the state increased the available pool for reimbursement and as a result, Deer Park received approximately $32,000 for fiscal year Both fiscal year 2014 and 2015 catastrophic costs were reimbursed in fiscal year 2015, with one year at a time being received from fiscal year 2016 going forward. Funding for economically disadvantaged students was required to be coded to this line item starting in fiscal year It is important to keep in mind that these are not additional funds given to the District by the State they are simply funds that were previously included in line Fiscal years are based on the same criteria as the rest of the Foundation payments. 140 Year over Year Revenue Trend % 4.56% 20 Year over Year Revenue Variance Actual 5 Year Average Projected 5 Year Average 9

10 1.050 Property Tax Allocation Includes funds received for Tangible Personal Property Tax Reimbursement, Electric Deregulation, Homestead and Rollback. FY 2016 Prop Tax Property Tax Allocation Actual and Projected Projected RevRenewal Levy Revenue Allocation as a % of Total $2,000,000 FY 2016 Pro $1,544,291 Revenue 2013 $1,277,631 $1,500, $1,297, % 2015 $1,329,682 $1,000, $1,145, $1,139,568 $500, $1,142,928 $1,544,291 $1,277,631 $1,297,575 $1,329,682 $1,145, $1,145, $1,144, $1,147, Projected Revenue Renewal Levy Revenue $1,139,568 $1,142,928 $1,145,139 $1,144,870 $1,147,452 On levies prior to November 2013, state law granted tax relief in the form of a 10% reduction in real property tax bills. In addition, a 2.5% rollback was granted on residential property taxes. Additional tax relief is granted to qualified elderly and disabled homeowners based on their income. The State reimburses the District for the loss of property taxes as a result of such provisions in the law and will continue to do so for levies passed prior to November Please note that estimates in this category also reflect the drastic cuts suffered by the District with the elimination of approximately $215,000 yearly electric deregulation reimbursement from the state as well as a reduction of over $500,000 from fiscal year in state reimbursements due to the phase out of tangible personal property tax replacement. Expansion of Homestead Exemption: Taxpayers who are 65 years of age or permanently disabled now receive an exemption of $25,000 of market value from their homes before they are taxed. With the passage of HB59, the Homestead Exemption reverted back to being means tested. Homeowners currently receiving the exemption have been grandfathered into the program. Homeowners applying after HB59's effective date will have to adhere to a new set of determining factors. However, this is still another significant property tax reduction for those eligible taxpayers in our district. Year over Year Revenue Trend 5.0% 5.0% % % 10.15% Year over Actual 5 YeProjected 5 Year Average % 10.15% % 10.15% % 10.15% % 10.15% % 10.15% % 0.03% % 0.03% % 0.03% % 0.03% % 0.03% 0.03% 3 Year over Year Revenue Variance Actual 5 Year Average Projected 5 Year Average *Projected % trends include renewal levies 10

11 1.060 All Other Operating Revenues Operating revenue sources not included in other lines; examples include tuition, fees, earnings on investments, rentals, and donations. FY 2016 Other Operating Revenue as a % of Total FY 2016 Oth 0 Revenue 6.0% $1,200,000 $1,000,000 $800,000 $600,000 All Other Operating Revenue Actual and Projected $400,000 $200,000 $784,659 $697,506 $915,539 $949,929 $961,522 $943,714 $933,214 $923,214 $913,214 $903,214 Revenue from all other sources is based on historical patterns and trends. Actual revenues may significantly fluctuate in any given year depending on circumstances. One area that has a large impact on this line is tax increment financing (TIF) payments. TIF is an economic development mechanism that allows local governments to finance public infrastructure improvements. In fiscal year 2012, Deer Park experienced a reduction in TIF money from Sycamore Township due to a delinquent account from one of the five taxpayers benefiting from the TIF program. During the 2013 calendar year, the District started to receive payments again from that delinquent account. In the spring of 2014, the delinquencies were paid up, accounting for a much larger payment received in fiscal year The District anticipates that all payers will continue to stay current for fiscal year 2016 and beyond. Other declines in this area include interest income (due to relatively low interest rates) and the effect of doubled up erate reimbursements. erate reimbursements received in fiscal year 2012 were for two years, while every other year has been for one year's worth of reimbursement. erate payments were slated to be lessened by USAC by 20% each year for certain services and completely eliminated for others, therefore payments in this area are reduced in each of the forecasted years Year over Year Revenue Trend 1.24% 2.68% Year over Year Revenue Variance Actual 5 Year Average Projected 5 Year Average 11

12 2.070 Total Other Financing Sources Includes proceeds from sale of notes, state emergency loans and advancements, operating transfers in, and all other financing sources like sale and loss of assets, and refund of prior year expenditures. FY 2016 Other Financing Sources as a % of Total FY 2016 Oth Revenue $250,000 $200,000 Other Operating Financing Sources Actual and Projected 0.6% $150,000 $100,000 $50,000 $10,528 $138,886 $217,371 $161,557 $99,243 $26,801 $3,000 $3,000 In fiscal year 2013, the Hamilton County Auditor returned $116, to from the Auditor's Real Estate Assessment Fund. The unspent balance in this fund was returned to local governments and school districts due to increased efficiencies in the County Auditor's office. In fiscal year 2014, the District received a refund from SERS due to estimates for contributions being slightly higher than actual results. Fiscal year 2015 saw a smaller SERS rebate, rebates from BWC, and some funds started to come in from sales of personal property (obsolete items that go through the Hamilton County Auction website). A small amount is included in fiscal years for additional sales, but we do not anticipate any additional rebates. Advances out from the previous fiscal year are also recorded in this line item as advances in. This is used for advancing funds to the grant accounts in order to close out the fiscal year. 140 Year over Year Revenue Trend % 65.45% 20 Year over Year Expenditure Variance Actual 5 Year Average Projected 5 Year Average 12

13 Expenditures Overview Prev. 5 Year PROJECTED 5 Year Avg. Annual Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Avg. Annual Change Change Expenditures: Salaries 2.04% 6.99% 4.37% 3.44% 3.73% 4.84% 4.67% Benefits 0.39% 8.68% 6.86% 6.32% 6.54% 7.14% 7.11% Purchased Services 6.31% 3.83% 4.69% 5.79% 4.91% 5.61% 4.96% Supplies & Materials 25.30% 6.51% 0.38% 0.98% 5.77% 7.16% 1.70% Capital Outlay 54.27% 25.42% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 5.08% Intergov n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a Debt n/a 0.24% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.05% Other Objects 5.68% 62.86% 3.90% 7.96% 0.50% 4.34% 15.91% Total Expenditures 0.28% 7.02% 4.60% 4.40% 3.96% 5.53% 5.10% Total Other Uses 50.50% 3.72% 5.68% 1.97% 1.97% 1.97% 3.06% Total Exp & Other Uses 1.10% 6.80% 4.67% 4.24% 3.83% 5.31% 4.97% Over the next five years, the District is projecting an increase in total expenditures by 5.1%. This is higher than historical trends due in large part to projected increases in purchased services. Please refer to page 16 for more information Salaries 49.3% 48.6% Benefits 17.3% 19.2% Purch Serv 19.6% 19.6% Salaries Supp 49.3% & Mat 5.1% 4.4% Benefits Capital Outlay 0.6% 17.3% 0.3% Intergov & Deb 0.3% 0.3% Othr Objects 1.1% Purch Serv 1.6% Othr Uses 6.6% 19.6% 6.0% Salaries 48.6% 2021 Benefits 19.2% Purch Serv 19.6% Othr Uses 6.6% Othr Objects 1.1% Intergov & Debt 0.3% Capital Outlay 0.6% Supp & Mat 5.1% Othr Uses 6.0% Othr Objects 1.6% Intergo v & Debt 03% Capital Outlay 0.3% Supp & Mat 4.4% 13

14 3.010 Personnel Services Employee salaries and wages, including extended time, severance pay, supplemental contracts, etc. FY 2016 Salaries as a % of Total Expenditures FY 2016 Sala % $10,000,000 $9,000,000 $8,000,000 $7,000,000 $6,000,000 $5,000,000 $4,000,000 $3,000,000 $2,000,000 $1,000,000 Personnel Services Actual and Projected $7,042,132 $6,588,786 $6,385,927 $6,600,731 $7,184,698 $7,686,935 $8,022,878 $8,298,878 $8,608,103 $9,024,907 The District is in its final year of the negotiated agreeement with the DPEA. Fiscal year 2017 projections are based on current staffing levels and approved salary schedules. Fiscal years projections are based on increases that are in line with recent historical trends in surrounding districts. Salaries for two additional teachers have been added to this line for fiscal years to accomodate all day kindergarten. The increase in fiscal year 2016 was due to the move of the third grade teachers from Holmes Elementary to Amity Elementary. With this transition, the third grade teachers' salaries could no longer be paid from the Federal School wide Pool fund and were added to general fund salaries. 1 Year over Year Expenditure Trend 5.0% 4.67% 5.0% 2.04% % Year over Year Expenditure Variance Actual 5 Year Average Projected 5 Year Average 14

15 3.020 Employees' Benefits Retirement for all employees, Workers Compensation, early retirement incentives, Medicare, unemployment, pickup on pickup, and all health related insurances. FY 2016 Benefits as a % of Total Expenditures FY 2016 Ben % $4,000,000 $3,500,000 $3,000,000 $2,500,000 $2,000,000 $1,500,000 $1,000,000 $500,000 Employees' Benefits/Insurance Benefits Actual and Projected $2,617,373 $2,313,153 $2,064,502 $2,289,255 $2,524,805 $2,744,060 $2,932,404 $3,117,696 $3,321,678 $3,559,002 A significant portion of this line item is percentage based and therefore automatically increases with salaries. Retirement, medicare, worker's compensation, and life insurance are all tied directly to salaries. The remainder of this line item is comprised of medical and dental insurance. With the implementation of the Affordable Care Act, the District has seen an increase in the number of employees electing to receive these benefits. Through various plan changes, the Greater Cincinnati Insurance Consortium (GCIC) has been able to hold premiums steady since fiscal year It is unlikely that premiums will remain at their current level going forward so fiscal years include a 10% increase (this is the cap that GCIC has agreed not to exceed in any one year). The decline from fiscal year 2012 to fiscal year 2013 was a result of benefits paid for Federal School wide Pool Building Program teachers at Holmes Elementary moving from general fund to a federal fund. Please read note "Operating Transfers Out" for additional explanation of the program. 15.0% Year over Year Expenditure Trend % 5.0% 5.0% 0.39% % Year over Year Expenditure Variance Actual 5 Year Average Projected 5 Year Average 15

16 3.030 Purchased Services Amounts paid for personal services rendered by personnel who are not on the payroll of the school district, and other services which the school district may purchase. FY 2016 Purchased Services as a % of Total FY 2016 Pur Expenditures % $4,000,000 $3,500,000 $3,000,000 $2,500,000 $2,000,000 $1,500,000 $1,000,000 $500,000 Purchased Services Actual and Projected $2,297,699 $2,753,124 $2,847,471 $2,857,558 $2,858,221 $2,967,622 $3,106,689 $3,286,642 $3,447,870 $3,641,241 Included in this line is a 20% increase in fleet and property insurance premiums. Fiscal year 2014 saw an increase of 33%, which was uncharacteristically high due to a few high dollar claims the District has had over the last few years. Open enrollment is another cost projected to have a double digit increase based on historical data. Preschool services have increased significantly due to enrollment numbers. Lastly, it is important to note that special education costs are a large part of this line item and can fluctuate depending on a student's handicap, required service costs, and student move ins. Deer Park works hard to serve every student with an appropriate level of services. Unfortunately, costs vary wildly from student to student, which makes this part of the category particularly difficult to forecast. This category also includes: maintenance contracts, lease purchase payments for copiers, district wide telephones, technology operations, professional development, meeting/travel expenses, legal services, consultants, technicians, postage, printing, advertising, utilities. Expenditures in this line are based on historical trends. The District moved budget allocations for substitute teachers effective in fiscal year 2013 and substitute classified employees in fiscal year 2015 from Personnel Services to category Purchased Services, since these are now served through contracted services. In fiscal year 2018, budget allocations have been adjusted to include two additional educational aides due to the implementation of all day kindergarten. 25.0% Year over Year Expenditure Trend % 1 5.0% 6.31% 4.96% Year over Year Expenditure Variance Actual 5 Year Average Projected 5 Year Average 16

17 3.040 Supplies & Materials Expenditures for general supplies, instructional materials including textbooks and media material, bus fuel and tires, and all other maintenance supplies. FY 2016 Supplies & Materials as a % of Total FY 2016 Sup Expenditures 0 5.1% $900,000 $800,000 $700,000 $600,000 $500,000 $400,000 $300,000 $200,000 $100,000 Supplies & Materials Actual and Projected $321,735 $310,109 $695,582 $464,754 $748,062 $796,738 $793,728 $801,536 $755,315 $809,375 A significant portion of this line item consists of textbook adoptions. The language arts series was only partially paid in fiscal year 2015, which reduced supplies and materials in that year. The remainder of the language arts series was purchased in fiscal year 2016 along with the new science series. The District projects $220,000 in fiscal year 2017 (social studies), $175,000 in fiscal year 2018 (electives), $200,000 in fiscal year 2019 (math), and $150,000 in fiscal year 2020 (English), and $200,000 in fiscal year 2021 (science) for textbook adoptions. Forecasted figures for these expenditures are based on historical trends Year over Year Expenditure Trend 1.70% 25.30% Year over Year Expenditure Variance Actual 5 Year Average Projected 5 Year Average 17

18 3.050 Capital Outlay This line includes expenditures for items having at least a five year life expectancy, such as land, buildings, improvements of grounds, equipment, computers/technology, furnishings, and buses. FY 2016 Capital Outlay as a % of Total Expenditures FY 2016 Cap 0 0.6% $100,000 $90,000 $80,000 $70,000 $60,000 $50,000 $40,000 $30,000 $20,000 $10,000 Capital Outlay Actual and Projected $39,576 $15,154 $47,618 $70,209 $87,005 $64,891 $64,891 $64,891 $64,891 $64,891 A majority of this line item is related to technology expenses. The District has 3.3 mills of permanent improvement funds to use towards capital improvement projects so this line on the forecast is minimal. 25 Year over Year Expenditure Trend % 5.08% 10 Year over Year Expenditure Variance Actual 5 Year Average Projected 5 Year Average 18

19 Intergovernmental & Debt These lines account for pass through payments, as well as monies received by a district on behalf of another governmental entity, plus principal and interest payments for general fund borrowing. FY 2016 Intergov & Debt as a % of Total Expenditures FY 2016 Inte 0 0.3% $60,000 $50,000 $40,000 $30,000 Intergovernmental & Debt Service Actual and Projected $20,000 $10,000 $49,889 $49,878 $49,881 $50,000 $50,000 $50,000 $50,000 $50,000 ' loan payments for the HB264 Energy Conservation project come out of this line item. These payments are scheduled for twelve years starting in fiscal year Remember that these loan payments are projected to be offset by the energy savings from the project itself. After the repayment period the savings will go directly towards offsetting other district costs. The cost related to interest on the loans is listed in line % Year over Year Expenditure Trend 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.00% 0.05% Year over Year Expenditure Variance Actual 5 Year Average Projected 5 Year Average 19

20 4.300 Other Objects Primary components for this expenditure line are membership dues and fees, ESC contract deductions, County Auditor/Treasurer fees, audit expenses, and election expenses. FY 2016 Other Objects as a % of Total Expenditures FY 2016 Oth 0 1.1% $350,000 $300,000 $250,000 $200,000 Other Objects Actual and Projected $150,000 $100,000 $50,000 $221,902 $230,931 $215,477 $224,632 $154,680 $251,906 $261,743 $282,576 $283,982 $296,316 Estimates are based on historical trends and include a slight increase in Property Tax Collection Fees. This change is based on the increased collections from the recently passed levy. In fiscal year 2016, only half of the year's fees were charged to this line. The other half are reflected as simply a reduction on the real estate tax line of the forecast. 8 Year over Year Expenditure Trend % % 4 Year over Year Expenditure Variance Actual 5 Year Average Projected 5 Year Average 20

21 5.040 Total Other Financing Uses Operating transfers out, advances out to other funds, and all other general fund financing uses. FY 2016 Other Financing Uses as a % of Total FY 2016 Oth Expenditures 0 6.6% $1,800,000 $1,600,000 $1,400,000 $1,200,000 $1,000,000 $800,000 $600,000 $400,000 $200,000 Other Financing Uses Actual and Projected $1,055,824 $1,529,849 $1,107,135 $1,369,546 $956,721 $992,282 $1,048,600 $1,069,217 $1,090,266 $1,111,755 This category represents transactions that withdraw money from one fund (commonly general fund) and permanently place it into another for funding purposes. Projections here were typically those of an annual subsidy to the District's athletic program operational budget, but was joined in fiscal year 2012 by the School wide Pool transfer. Effective in fiscal year 2012, the District was granted permission to administer a "School wide Pool Building Fund." The School wide Pool Building Program allows for the pooling of federal, state, and local funds to be used to upgrade the overall instructional program of a school building where at least 40% of children are from low income families. Consequently, salaries and related benefits of all designated teachers at Holmes Elementary have to be paid out of this fund. To accomplish this, general fund money needed to subsidize these two programs has been transferred to the federal special revenue fund. For fiscal year 2016 and beyond, transfer into School wide Pool are based on estimated payroll and benefits of the regular teaching staff at Holmes Elementary. There is a decrease in this line for fiscal year 2016 due to the third grade move from Holmes Elementary to Amity Elementary. The third grade teachers' salaries and benefits are now reflected in lines and Also included in this category are reimbursements received through the Ohio Medicaid School Program (OMSP). It is not until OMSP requests actual costs from the District that actual cost rates are computed to arrive at the figure that OMSP may owe or require a district to pay back. 30 Year over Year Expenditure Trend % 3.06% 5 Year over Year Expenditure Variance Actual 5 Year Average Projected 5 Year Average 21

22 Forecast Compare Comparison of Previous Forecast Amounts to Current Forecasted Numbers F.Y Column A Column B Column C Column D Previous Current Dollar Percent Forecast Forecast Difference Difference Amounts For Amounts For Between Between F.Y F.Y Previous Previous Prepared on: Prepared on: and and Revenue: 05/20/ /14/2016 Current Current 1 Real Estate & Property Allocation $10,046,163 $9,958,561 $87, % 2 Public Utility Personal Property $938,791 $993,566 $54, % 3 Income Tax n/a 4 State Foundation Restricted & Unrestricted $3,638,995 $3,750,451 $111, % 5 Other Revenue $945,031 $943,714 $1, % 6 Other Non Operating Revenue $3,000 $26,801 $23, % 7 Total Revenue $15,571,980 $15,673,093 $101, % Expenditures: 8 Salaries $7,554,305 $7,686,935 $132, % 9 Fringe Benefits $2,680,809 $2,744,060 $63, % 10 Purchased Services $3,351,093 $2,967,622 $383, % 11 Supplies, Debt, Capital Outlay & Other $1,135,456 $1,163,535 $28, % 12 Other Non Operating Expenditures $1,128,931 $992,282 $136, % 13 Total Expenditures $15,850,594 $15,554,434 $296, % 14 Revenue Over/(Under) Expenditures $278,614 $118,659 $397, %* 15 Ending Cash Balance $9,142,515 $9,835,532 $693, %* *Percentage expressed in terms of total expenditures Compared to the forecast completed in May, the District is projecting an increase in revenue and a decrease in expenditures. This combination of increased revenue and decreased expenditures means that the District anticipates a greater cash balance and the pushes the need for the next operating levy out further into the future. 22

23 Actual FORECASTED Fiscal Year: Revenue: General Property Tax (Real Estate) 9,101,584 8,818,993 8,958,573 8,991,219 8,993,874 9,022, Public Utility Personal Property 948, ,566 1,045,972 1,100,474 1,138,883 1,184, Income Tax Unrestricted Grants in Aid 3,590,461 3,618,292 3,758,208 3,938,617 4,133,817 4,331, Restricted Grants in Aid 110, , , , , , Restricted Federal Grants SFSF Property Tax Allocation 1,145,605 1,139,568 1,142,928 1,145,139 1,144,870 1,147, All Other Operating Revenues 961, , , , , , Total Revenue 15,858,350 15,646,293 15,974,951 16,235,684 16,461,036 16,726,320 Other Financing Sources: Proceeds from Sale of Notes State Emergency Loans and Adv Operating Transfers In Advances In 81, All Other Financing Sources 17,897 26,801 3,000 3, Total Other Financing Sources 99,243 26,801 3,000 3, Total Rev & Other Sources 15,957,593 15,673,093 15,977,951 16,238,684 16,461,036 16,726,320 Expenditures: Personnel Services 7,184,698 7,686,935 8,022,878 8,298,878 8,608,103 9,024, Employee Benefits 2,524,805 2,744,060 2,932,404 3,117,696 3,321,678 3,559, Purchased Services 2,858,221 2,967,622 3,106,689 3,286,642 3,447,870 3,641, Supplies and Materials 748, , , , , , Capital Outlay 87,005 64,891 64,891 64,891 64,891 64, Intergovernmental Debt Service: Principal All Years 39, Principal Notes Principal State Loans Principal State Advances Principal HB264 Loan 40,400 41,400 42,400 43,400 44, Principal Other Interest and Fiscal Charges 10,532 9,600 8,600 7,600 6,600 5, Other Objects 154, , , , , , Total Expenditures 13,607,352 14,562,152 15,232,333 15,902,218 16,531,840 17,445,733 Other Financing Uses Operating Transfers Out 944, , ,600 1,019,217 1,040,266 1,061, Advances Out All Other Financing Uses 12,697 13,876 50,000 50,000 50,000 50, Total Other Financing Uses 956, ,282 1,048,600 1,069,217 1,090,266 1,111, Total Exp and Other Financing Uses 14,564,073 15,554,434 16,280,933 16,971,436 17,622,105 18,557, Excess of Rev Over/(Under) Exp 1,393, ,659 (302,983) (732,752) (1,161,070) (1,831,167) Cash Balance July 1 (No Levies) 8,323,353 9,716,873 9,835,532 9,532,549 8,799,797 7,638, Cash Balance June 30 (No Levies) 9,716,873 9,835,532 9,532,549 8,799,797 7,638,727 5,807, Estimated Encumbrances June , , , , Reservations Subtotal Fund Bal June 30 for Cert of App 9,477,978 9,596,637 9,293,654 8,560,902 7,638,727 5,807,560 Rev from Replacement/Renewal Levies & Income & Property Tax Renewal Cumulative Balance of Levies Fund Bal June 30 for Cert of Obligations 9,477,978 9,596,637 9,293,654 8,560,902 7,638,727 5,807,560 Revenue from New Levies & Income & Property Tax New Cumulative Balance of New Levies Unreserved Fund Balance June 30 9,477,978 9,596,637 9,293,654 8,560,902 7,638,727 5,807,560 23