Paint Valley Local School District

Transcription

1 Paint Valley Local School District Financial Forecast Summary & Report October 2014 Kristin O Dell, CFO Paint Valley Local Schools Kristin.odell@pvlsd.org 1

2 Forecast Purpose This forecast is intended to assist the school district in the financial management of its resources. The forecast will provide trend information to help in the determination of local tax levy needs, union negotiations, program resource allocation, and overall effort to balance the district s budget. The forecast is also intended to provide insight into the future, rather than reaction to the past. This report includes information regarding key revenue and expenditure assumptions as well as the resulting implications. Particular attention should be given to not only the relationship of expenditures to revenue, but the rate of any adverse trend (expenditures exceeding revenue). Cash balance reserves should be recognized as the stabilizing resource that they are, rather than as a revenue source to support ongoing operations. Public Finance Resources, Inc. provides financial forecasting software and services to local government CFOs and Organizations. 2

3 Table of Contents Forecast Purpose... 2 Table of Contents... 3 Executive Summary... 4 Forecast Summary & Notes... 5 Sources of Revenue and Annual Changes... 5 Significant Revenue Assumptions... 6 Types of Expenditures and Annual Change Significant Expenditure Assumptions State Funding Supplement Traditional Five Year Forecast Page Enrollment Supplement

4 Revenue, Expenditures and Cash Balance $12,000,000 $10,000,000 Revenue, Levies, Expenditures and Cash Balance 10,237,433 9,190,485 $8,000,000 $6,000,000 $4,000,000 $2,000,000 $ Actual 2013Actual 2014Actual 2015Proj. 2016Proj. 2017Proj. 2018Proj. 2019Proj. Total Revenue Replace/Renew Levies New Levies Total Expenditures Cash Balance PROJECTED Total Revenue $9,790,400 $9,626,162 $9,707,962 $9,781,007 $9,818,151 Replace/Renew Levies $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 New Levies $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Total Expenditures $9,190,485 $9,323,038 $9,561,299 $9,808,411 $10,063,100 Revenue Over/(Under) Expenditures $599,915 $303,123 $146,663 ($27,404) ($244,949) Cash Balance $2,144,550 $2,447,673 $2,594,337 $2,566,932 $2,321,983 The district has made significant budget cuts from its peak expenditure level of $10,237,433 in fiscal year The fiscal year 2015 projected level of $9,190,485 is a little more than $1.0 million less annually than in The cuts have enabled the district to balance revenue and expenditures, and to preserve some financial stability in the cash balance reserve. The forecast, with modeled parameters, show the district trending toward revenue shortfalls by the end of the forecast period. Decisions will be required to continue bending the revenue and expenditure variance back to zero. 4

5 Sources of Revenue and Annual Changes Public Utility 0% Income Tax 0% Real Estate 15% 2009 State Foundation & Restricted 73% Income Tax 0% Public Utility 1% Real Estate 17% 2019 State Foundation & Restricted 70% Property Tax All Other Allocation All Other Property Tax Revenue 3% Revenue Allocation 9% 9% 3% Previous PROJECTED Projected 5 Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year 5 Year Average Average Annual % Annual % Real Estate 1.55% 1.62% 2.42% 3.46% 2.82% 0.90% 2.24% Public Utility 69.30% 2.32% 3.18% 2.49% 2.25% 2.50% 2.55% Income Tax 20.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% State Foundation & State Restricted 0.89% 3.49% 2.82% 0.01% 0.00% 0.01% 1.26% Prop Tax Allocation 1.02% 3.31% 1.19% 3.44% 3.35% 0.93% 2.45% All Other Revenue 2.29% 5.21% 5.76% 1.86% 1.87% 1.88% 1.23% Total Oper. Revenue 0.85% 2.60% 1.13% 0.86% 0.76% 0.38% 0.34% Note: Existing Renewal Levies Included as Renewed, No New Levies Included Line 1.07 Operating Revenue Only, Does not include Other Sources (Transfers, Advances, etc.) State Unrestricted (1.034), Restricted (1.04), and Prior Years' SFSF (1.045) = "State Foundation & State Restricted" State Foundation, State Restricted and Property Tax Allocation, all state revenue sources, comprise nearly 75% of the district's operating revenue. Property values and enrollment influence the state foundation funding. If valuations grow (or remain the same), and enrollment drops, then the district's per pupil valuation will go up relative to the wealth per pupil in Ohio. If this occurs then the district will lose state funding as described later in this report in the state funding supplement. Real estate is projected to grow as a result of the county's reappraisal of values, and some new construction. The category represents just 15% of district revenue. 5

6 Significant Revenue Assumptions I Real Estate Revenue is dependent upon valuations, tax rates, and collection (rate) performance by local taxpayers % of Total Real Estate Reve4.36% of Total Real Estate Revenue Effective Effective Gross Real Property Year Over Year Residential Year Over Year Business Year Over Year Collection Tax Year Valuation Change Tax Rate Change Tax Rate Change Rate ,113,430 4,524, All Taxes ,262,590 4,149, (0.28) % Actual ,724, , (0.00) 100.9% Actual ,960, , % Actual ,098,920 9,138, (0.01) % Actual ,013, , % Projected ,782, , % Projected ,145,501 5,363, (0.00) % Projected ,966, , % Projected ,963, , % Projected Note: Tax Rates Include Existing Renewal Levies Included as Renewed, No New Levies Included Real Estate Revenue $1,441,690 $1,333,483 $1,378,951 $1,383,140 $1,479,948 $1,503,961 $1,540,295 $1,593,587 $1,638,574 $1,653,346 Real estate property values grew in 2013 because of Ohio's new methodology for valuing agricultural (CAUV) property. There was also modest (2.0%) growth in residential valuation. The district's Class I (residential/agricultural) tax rates are at the state of Ohio's minimum of 20.0 mills. Because the tax rates cannot be rolled back any further in response to inflation, the district does receive some growth on this property valuation. Class II (commercial) tax rates are not at the 20.0 mill minimum, but this particular component of property is only 4.0% of the district's total property valuation. The forecast includes the modeling of a near 99% gross collection rate of taxes. The rate, while high, will cause outstanding delinquencies owed the district to grow slightly each year. 6

7 Significant Revenue Assumptions II Public Utility Personal Property Tax Year Tax Rate Valuation $4,563,050 $4,654,311 $4,793,940 $4,889,819 $5,012,065 $5,137,366 Public Utility PP Revenue $16,307 $126,520 $128,910 $137,456 $134,238 $137,353 $141,724 $145,256 $148,528 $152,241 Public Utility Personal Property includes such items as power transmission lines and substations, as well as natural gas lines and similar public utility assets. Public utility values are expected to grow on average 2% to 3% per year. These estimated values applied to the District's full voted millage rate (30 mills), will produce the revenue estimates reflected in the above chart. ** Note: In 2010 the District combined Public Utility revenue with General Property Tax revenue which inflated real estate revenue and deflated public utility property revenue. 7

8 Significant Revenue Assumptions III Property Tax Allocation Reimbursement for: Tangible Pers. Fixed Rate $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Tangible Pers Fixed Sum (Emerg.) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Reimbursement for Rollback and Homestead Real Estate $267,316 $276,170 $279,465 $289,076 $298,768 $301,546 Property Tax Allocation Revenue $320,130 $324,212 $257,635 $266,198 $267,317 $276,170 $279,465 $289,076 $298,768 $301,546 The district's property tax allocation revenue correlates with its real estate revenue. This category represents the state of Ohio's reimbursement to the district for the real estate discount program's rollback and homestead exemptions. The revenue is projected to grow only slightly and parallel to the real estate revenue growth. 8

9 Significant Revenue Assumptions IV Foundation and Restricted State Funding Funded Enrollment Valuation Per Pupil $85,739 $96,549 $96,549 $105,493 $105,493 Per Pupil Core Funding $5,800 $5,858 $5,917 $5,976 $6,036 State's Share 71.1% 65.2% 65.2% 62.5% 62.5% Net Per Pupil (State Share) $4,122 $3,817 $3,855 $3,738 $3, Core Foundation Funding $6,981,941 $5,952,710 $5,753,883 $5,747,104 $5,749,567 $5,751,348 All Other State Funding $626,881 $170,961 $172,380 $173,023 $173,027 $173,442 Restricted State Funding $835,219 $815,663 $817,356 $824,134 $821,672 $819,890 Foundation and Restricted State Funding $6,785,999 $6,841,888 $7,157,003 $6,670,071 $7,190,279 $6,939,334 $6,743,618 $6,744,262 $6,744,266 $6,744,680 Rising property values combined with declining enrollment will ultimately drive Paint Valley's calculated formula funding lower. With the current enrollment and valuations as modeled, the district's per pupil valuation is projected to grow from 2015's $85,739 to $105,493 by F.Y Any change in actual enrollment and valuations relative to that modeled in the forecast will cause a commensurate change in the per pupil valuations, and the district's state share of funding. The district will want to monitor enrollment and valuations very carefully during the forecast and model material deviations. Paint Valley will receive at minimum its FY2013 level of funding for the remaining years covered by the forecast. Some deviation in total occurs because of other categories of funding special education, casino revenue, etc. ** See enrollment estimates & the State Funding Supplement for more detail 9

10 Significant Revenue Assumptions V All Other Revenue Total $800,180 $789,119 $747,972 $791,060 $805,781 $820,871 $836,338 Other Revenue $810,022 $855,096 $813,366 $800,180 $789,119 $747,972 $791,060 $805,781 $820,871 $836,338 Revenue generated from the district's open enrollment students accounts for a large part of other revenue. Open enrollment peaked in 2011 at 120 students generating $695,000 of the category's $855,096 total. The tuition for these non resident students to attend the Paint Valley School District is paid by the student's resident district. The forecast models 95 open enrolment students choosing to attend Paint Valley in the current school year. This enrollment is expected to generate $545,000 of the category's $747,972 fiscal year 2015 total. Per pupil funded levels are projected to grow 2.5% per year through the forecast period, while the open enrollment student count is projected at the 2015 level of 95 students. 10

11 Significant Revenue Assumptions VI Non Operating Revenue Sources Transfers In $40,000 $133,156 $130,000 $130,000 $130,000 $130,000 $130,000 Advances In $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Other Financing Sources $9,884 $50,365 $55,609 $0 $0 $0 $0 Debt $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Non Operating Revenue Sources Non $232,665 $226,430 $78,892 $49,884 $183,521 $185,609 $130,000 $130,000 $130,000 $130,000 $232,665 $226,430 $78,892 $49,884 $183,521 $185,609 $130,000 $130,000 $130,000 $130,000 This revenue is primarily comprised of the return of funds temporarily loaned to other funds such as grants. In 2014 and 2015, the district received certain refunds that increased other sources by $50,365 in 2014, and $55,609 in

12 Types of Expenditures and Annual Change 2009 Benefits 21% 2019 Benefits 23% Salaries 54% Purch Serv 20% Salaries 42% Purch Serv 26% Other Exp 2% Capital Outlay 0% Supp & Mat 3% Capital Other Exp Outlay 5% 0% Supp & Mat 4% Previous Projected Projected 5 Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year 5 Year Average Average Annual % Annual % Salaries 2.35% 1.42% 2.06% 0.08% 1.18% 1.11% 0.22% Benefits & Retirement 1.35% 4.17% 5.06% 7.02% 5.23% 5.32% 5.36% Purchased Services 8.03% 10.88% 5.00% 3.69% 3.17% 3.16% 0.83% Supplies and Materials 0.44% 16.18% 1.85% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 4.80% Capital Outlay 96.33% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% Debt and Intergov. Pmts 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% All Other Exp % 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% Operating Expenditures 0.81% 2.24% 1.47% 2.60% 2.63% 2.64% 1.42% Note: Debt and Intergovernmental Payments Combined Expenditures are projected to increase an average of 1.42% per year during the forecast period ending June 30, Most of the increase is generated by the benefits and retirement category. More detail is provided later in this report. By fiscal year 2019 nearly one out of every four dollars spent is expected to be consumed by benefits. 12

13 Significant Expenditure Assumptions I Salaries Total $5,224,909 $5,085,033 $4,209,123 $4,149,327 $4,063,864 $4,067,261 $4,115,252 $4,160,851 Annual Dollar Increase $139,876 $875,910 $59,796 $85,463 $3,397 $47,991 $45,599 Annual Percent Growth 2.68% 17.23% 1.42% 2.06% 0.08% 1.18% 1.11% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% Salaries Year Over Year Percentage (%) Change 20.0% Year over Year Expenditure Variance Actual 5 Year Average Projected 5 Year Average History Projections Enrollment Change Compared to Staffing Change Student Employee ADM % Change FTE % Change , , % % , % % , % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % Salaries decreased 17.6% in 2014 because of staffing reductions in response to the economy and the district's budget. In FY15 the district did fund a band position and an ROTC position from the general fund. The district had received federal funding to help offset a portion of the overall cost. Staffing is projected to stay at the 2015 level of 97 full time equivalency (FTE) through the remaining years of the forecast ending June 30, The current negotiated agreement with staff covers fiscal years 2015 and There is no base wage increase, however a lump sum payment of $500 or $1,000 will be paid based upon the employee's health insurance selection. There are no lump sum payments after The forecast is modeling a 2.0% trend increase in salaries for fiscal years 2016 through

14 Significant Expenditure Assumptions II Benefits Health Insurance $ Chg $102,234 $81,299 $104,477 $131,127 $97,067 $104,833 Health Insurance % Chg 10.1% 9.0% 10.6% 12.0% 7.9% 7.9% Health Insurance $1,009,116 $906,882 $988,181 $1,092,658 $1,223,786 $1,320,853 $1,425,686 All Other Benefits $898,653 $807,616 $797,780 $783,721 $784,280 $792,174 $799,675 Total $1,907,769 $1,714,498 $1,785,961 $1,876,379 $2,008,065 $2,113,027 $2,225,361 Benefits Year Over Year Percentage (%) Change 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% Year over Year Expenditure Variance Actual 5 Year Average Projected 5 Year Average Per Pupil Fringe Benefit Expenditures for General Fund $3,000 $2,500 $2,000 $1,500 $1,000 $500 $0 1,759 1,795 1,926 2,157 1,961 1,854 2,048 2,159 2,327 2,495 2, As reported on the expenditure summary, the fringe benefits category is the fastest growing significant budget line item. Health insurance is projected to grow on average at an annual amount of $1.2 million per year. The district has some health insurance reserves that may reduce these costs. The 2013 and 2014 expenditure levels decreased in part because of staffing reductions and fewer insured employees. 14

15 Significant Expenditure Assumptions III Purchased Services Comm. School Tuition $296,707 $304,006 $315,668 $333,908 $352,899 $360,293 $367,872 Open Enrollment Out $730,323 $738,485 $775,575 $824,408 $845,018 $866,143 $887,797 Scholarships & Transfers $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Other $3,053,519 $3,553,963 $3,329,397 $3,508,305 $3,634,507 $3,740,278 $3,849,019 Total $2,026,489 $2,511,472 $2,238,154 $2,349,989 $2,436,590 $2,513,841 $2,593,351 YOY $$ Change $167,920 $484,983 $273,318 $111,836 $86,601 $77,251 $79,509 YOY % Change 7.7% 23.9% 10.9% 5.0% 3.7% 3.2% 3.2% 30.0% Purchased Services Year Over Year Percentage (%) Change 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% Year over Year Expenditure Variance Actual 5 Year Average Projected 5 Year Average This category exhibits some recent variation. For example expenditures from FY10 through FY12 had been growing, but then dipped in FY13. That dip was related to an accounting change which moved County Educational Service Center charges from this category (Line 3.03 of the forecast) to Other Objects (Line 4.30 of the forecast). About $350,000 of the spike noted in FY14 was related to charges associated with the recent energy project performed with TMI energy. The remainder is primarily attributable to increases in the number of outgoing Community School and Open Enrollment students this fiscal year. Since the TMI charges reflect one time spending, FY15 reflects a return to more typical levels. 15

16 Significant Expenditure Assumptions IV Supplies and Materials Total $253,419 $282,156 $327,799 $333,855 $340,532 $347,343 $354,290 Supplies & Materials Year Over Year Percentage (%) Change 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% Year over Year Expenditure Variance Actual 5 Year Average Projected 5 Year Average Supplies & Materials Year Over Year Dollar ($) Change $60,000 $40,000 $20,000 $0 $20,000 $40,000 $60,000 $80,000 $100,000 FY15 includes a $25,000 provision for one time TANF technology purchases. In addition FY15 incorporates another $15,000 boost for other supply purchases which had previously been frozen during the recent economic downturn. Expenditure estimates moving forward (FY16 FY19) reflect a return to normal inflationary trend levels of approximately 2%. 16

17 Significant Expenditure Assumptions V Capital Outlay Total $273,712 $33,964 $33,964 $33,964 $33,964 $33,964 $33,964 Capital Outlay Year Over Year Dollar ($) Change $250,000 $200,000 $150,000 $100,000 $50,000 $0 $50,000 $100,000 $150,000 $200,000 $250,000 $300,000 Most capital purchases are accomplished through the District's Permanent Improvement Fund. Estimated expenditures for FY15 through FY19 assume the same levels as spent in FY14. 17

18 Significant Expenditure Assumptions VI Other Operating Expenditures Intergovernmental, Debt & Interest $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Other Objects $452,931 $475,765 $485,280 $494,986 $504,886 $514,983 $525,283 Other Operating Expenditures ### $141,628 $167,904 $452,931 $475,765 $485,280 $494,986 $504,886 $514,983 $525,283 $165,483 $141,628 $167,904 $452,931 $475,765 $485,280 $494,986 $504,886 $514,983 $525,283 As mentioned in the Other Expenditure narrative, the spending increase noted in FY13 is related to an accounting change whereby County ESC charges are now recorded in this category's totals. Future estimates include a 2% estimated inflationary adjustment. 18

19 Significant Expenditure Assumptions VII Non Operating Uses Advances Out $0 $1,059 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Transfers Out $55,000 $173,729 $170,000 $170,000 $170,000 $170,000 $170,000 Other Financing Uses $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Non Operating Uses ### $253,420 $68,603 $55,000 $174,788 $170,000 $170,000 $170,000 $170,000 $170,000 $255,881 $253,420 $68,603 $55,000 $174,788 $170,000 $170,000 $170,000 $170,000 $170,000 Transfers to other funds, such as transfers to the District's textbook and supply set aside fund, ROTC fund, athletic funds and pay to participate funds, are recorded in this category. Future transfers are expected to remain consistent to FY14 levels. 19

20 Paint Valley Local Schools Schedule Of Revenue, Expenditures and Changes In Fund Balances Actual and Forecasted Operating Fund ACTUAL FORECASTED Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Revenue: General Property Tax (Real Estate) 1,378,951 1,383,140 1,479,948 1,503,961 1,540,295 1,593,587 1,638,574 1,653, Public Utility Personal Property 128, , , , , , , , Income Tax Unrestricted Grants in Aid 6,837,726 6,615,286 6,355,060 6,123,671 5,926,262 5,920,127 5,922,594 5,924, Restricted Grants in Aid 1, , , , , , , Restricted Federal Grants in Aid SFSF 318,116 54, Property Tax Allocation 257, , , , , , , , All Other Operating Revenues 813, , , , , , , , Total Revenue 9,735,865 9,257,045 9,860,901 9,604,791 9,496,162 9,577,962 9,651,007 9,688,151 Other Financing Sources: Proceeds from Sale of Notes State Emergency Loans and Advancements Operating Transfers In 53,366 40, , , , , , , Advances In All Other Financing Sources 25,526 9,884 50,365 55, Total Other Financing Sources 78,892 49, , , , , , , Total Revenues and Other Financing Sources 9,814,757 9,306,929 10,044,422 9,790,400 9,626,162 9,707,962 9,781,007 9,818,151 Expenditures: Personnel Services 5,224,909 5,085,033 4,209,123 4,149,327 4,063,864 4,067,261 4,115,252 4,160, Employees' Retirement/Insurance Benefits 2,212,779 1,907,769 1,714,498 1,785,961 1,876,379 2,008,065 2,113,027 2,225, Purchased Services 2,194,409 2,026,489 2,511,472 2,238,154 2,349,989 2,436,590 2,513,841 2,593, Supplies and Materials 301, , , , , , , , Capital Outlay 67, ,712 33,964 33,964 33,964 33,964 33,964 33, Intergovernmental Debt Service: Principal All Years Principal Notes Principal State Loans Principal State Advances Principal HB264 Loan Principal Other Interest and Fiscal Charges Other Objects 167, , , , , , , , Total Expenditures 10,168,830 9,999,353 9,226,978 9,020,485 9,153,038 9,391,299 9,638,411 9,893,100 Other Financing Uses Operating Transfers Out 68,203 55, , , , , , , Advances Out 1, All Other Financing Uses Total Other Financing Uses 68,603 55, , , , , , , Total Expenditures and Other Financing Uses 10,237,433 10,054,353 9,401,766 9,190,485 9,323,038 9,561,299 9,808,411 10,063,100 Excess of Rev & Other Financing Uses Over (Under) Expenditures and Other Financing Uses (422,676) (747,424) 642, , , ,663 (27,404) (244,949) Cash Balance July 1 Excluding Proposed Renewal/ Replacement and New Levies 2,072,079 1,649, ,979 1,544,635 2,144,550 2,447,673 2,594,337 2,566, Cash Balance June 30 1,649, ,979 1,544,635 2,144,550 2,447,673 2,594,337 2,566,932 2,321, Estimated Encumbrances June 30 37,485 57,024 92,564 50,000 50,000 50,000 50,000 50,000 Reservations of Fund Balance: Textbooks and Instructional Materials Capital Improvements Budget Reserve DPIA Debt Service Property Tax Advances Bus Purchases Subtotal Fund Balance June 30 for Certification of Appropriations 1,611, ,955 1,452,071 2,094,550 2,397,673 2,544,337 2,516,932 2,271,983 Rev from Replacement/Renewal Levies Income Tax Renewal Property Tax Renewal or Replacement Cumulative Balance of Replacement/Renewal Levies Fund Balance June 30 for Certification of Contracts, Salary and Other Obligations 1,611, ,955 1,452,071 2,094,550 2,397,673 2,544,337 2,516,932 2,271,983 Revenue from New Levies Income Tax New Property Tax New Cumulative Balance of New Levies Revenue from Future State Advancements Unreserved Fund Balance June 30 1,611, ,955 1,452,071 2,094,550 2,397,673 2,544,337 2,516,932 2,271,983 ADM Forecasts Kindegarten Grades

21 State Per Pupil Wealth & Funding Analysis "Core Aid Per Pupil" State Funding Supplement Column A Column C Column E Number of District District Median Column F Funded Students Per Pupil Column D Taxpayer Blended Column H Column I Head Count, Column B Valuation District Income as % Valuation Index Column G State Share of State Share Projected + Comm. Schl, Per Pupil Index as % of Taxpayer of State Median Index Full Core Aid Core Per Pupil Funding Year + Open Enroll Out Valuation State Median Median Income Median Wealth Index Per Pupil Funding Per Pupil $85, % $30, % $5, % $4, $96, % $31, % $5, % $3, $96, % $31, % $5, % $3, $105, % $32, % $5, % $3, $105, % $32, % $6, % $3,775 Column C, Valuation Indicator: Valuation index indicates the percentage that a district is over or (under) the state's median per pupil valuation. Higher percentages indicate higher wealth relative to the state and lower percentages indicate lower property wealth relative to the state. Column E, Income Indicator: Reflects the district's median taxpayer income relative to the state as a whole. A percentage above 100% indicates that the district's taxpayer income is above the state median. If the percentage is lower than the state's then the district's taxpayer have a lower median income. Column F, Wealth Index: The state evaluates both the valuation and income indicators to determine state percentage. If the district's income indicator is lower than its valuation indicator then the state blends the two indicators to determine an overall wealth indicator. If the valuation indicator is lower than the income indicator then the district's valuation indicator is the only index used. Column H, State Share %: The district's resulting wealth index in column F is ranked against all other public K 12 Ohio school districts. The result of this ranking is the state share percentage which is the portion of per pupil core aid that the state will provide. The district's 2015 per pupil valuations of $85,739 (column B) is only 61.02% of the state wide median in Ohio. In addition, the district's taxpayer income (Column F) is only 93.48% of the state wide taxpayer income. It is the district's per pupil valuation that drives the calculation of the district's state share. In 2015, the district is projected to receive 71.08% of the state's $5,800 per pupil funding level. State Core Aid Funding Overall Analysis and Wealth/Enrollment Vulnerability Assessment M Column O Column P Column K Column L Unfunded State Guarantee Formula Column J Funds Needed Column M Column N Resulting from Projected State Core to Maintain Percent of Formula Above Percent of "Capped" Percent of Column R Year Funding 2013 Funding Total Funding 2013 Funding Total Formula Increase Total Funding Modeled Cap 2015 $6,768,373 $0 0.00% $197, % $0 0.00% % 2016 $6,571,238 $149, % $0 0.00% $0 0.00% % 2017 $6,571,238 $146, % $0 0.00% $0 0.00% % 2018 $6,571,238 $364, % $0 0.00% $0 0.00% % 2019 $6,571,238 $408, % $0 0.00% $0 0.00% % Column L: This column represents the percentage of funding guaranteed by Ohio to meet the same level of funding received in fiscal year Column N: When a district is funded above the 2013 level then this column represents the percentage of funding that is over the 2013 level. It gives an indicator of how close the district is to returning to a nonformula status and the potential for lost revenue in the event of negative influences such as declining enrollment. Column P: In 2014 the state capped the maximum amount of funding increase a district could receive. For districts modeling ongoing caps this column gives an indicator of the amount of additional funding that the state could owe if all of the formula variables (enrollment, valuation, income) meet projections. All of course is dependent upon the state's future financial condition and ability. Column R: Reflects the modeled maximum growth in year over year funding. The district is a formula district in 2015, which infers that changes in the enrollment could lower or raise the district's state funding. In 2016, the district is projected to cease being a formula district and instead to reduce to the 2013 guaranteed level of funding. If this happens as modeled, the district can expect to be receiving $408,543 in guarantee subsidies to prevent it from losing overall formula revenue. The next Biennial Executive Budget will be presented in March The district's forecast will be monitored during the budget deliberations to determine the impact on local and state revenue. By being on the funding guarantee in 2016 and beyond, the district is less likely to receive year over year per pupil increases in state funding. 21

22 Mobility & Enrollment Modeling 2015 District "Head Count" Students Enrolled at District Estimate 5 Year Actuals Override Enrollment as % Estimated of Prior Year Enrollment as % Grade 2010 Census Adjust Census 2015 K Estimate Grade ADM of 2010 Census K % 83% 2014 Actual 2014 Class Size Class Size 2015 Grade Brought Forward 5 Year Mobility Adjust Mobility 2015 Estimate K = 71 1 > > > > % 86% Gr 1 = 63 2 > > > > % 91% Gr 2 = 59 3 > > > > % 79% Gr 3 = 61 4 > > > > % 81% Gr 4 = 77 5 > > > > % 99% Gr 5 = 59 6 > > > > % 67% Gr 6 = 76 7 > > > > % 91% Gr 7 = 84 8 > > > > % 111% Gr 8 = 79 9 > > > > % 93% Gr 9 = > > > > % 103% Gr 10 = > > > > % 75% Gr 11 = > > > > % 70% Gr 12 = Total > < 1 12 Total Estimate 49 K Total (Adjusted Census) 925 << K 12 Total Prior Year K 12 Total Current Year >> Year Over Year Change 2010 Census 2015 Estimate K 2010 Appropriate Census Age 75 Population 49 to Grade Level Enrollment 's 100 1st Gr nd Gr 4th Gr rd Gr 5th Gr th Gr M 7th Gr th Gr th Gr th Gr K 11th 1st Gr Gr 2nd Gr 3rd Gr 4th 91Gr 5th Gr 6th 68Gr 7th Gr 8th Gr 9th Gr 10th Gr 11th Gr 12th Gr 12th Gr Census Estimate The graph to the left compares the districts projected enrollment for the current year (yellow and black bar) to the 2010 US census age count in the district. Often a district is not serving all of the censusage identified children because of a multitude of factors to include: open enrollment out, community school out, home schooled, etc. M The graph to the right Change in Student FTE from Prior Year Grade Level (Mobility Difference) compares the difference 6 between the district's current year grade level 4 Census enrollment estimate versus 2014 Actual 2015 Estimate the prior year's enrollment at the district Grade on For example, the yellow and 0 1st Gr 5 7 black bar above 1st Grade 2nd Gr 2 4 represents the difference 2 3rd Gr 6 4 between the current year's grade 1 enrollment 4th Gr estimate and the prior 5th Gr 2 5 year's Kdg enrollment. 6 6th Gr 8 4 The blue bar above grade 1 7th Gr 7 3 represents the district's last 8 8th Gr 7 4 year 1st grade enrollment 9th Gr 2 1 difference from the 2 year 10 10th Gr 3 6 ago Kdg enrollment. 11th 1st Gr Gr 2nd Gr 3rd Gr 4th Gr 5th Gr 56th Gr 7th Gr 5 8th Gr 9th Gr 10th Gr 11th Gr 12th Gr 12th Gr 2014 Actual Estimate 1 22

23 Mobility & Enrollment Modeling 2016 District "Head Count" Students Enrolled at District Enrollment as % of Prior Year Enrollment as % Grade 2010 Census Manual Adjust 2016 K Estimate Grade ADM of 2010 Census K % 97% 2015 Actual 2015 Class Size Class Size 2016 Grade Brought Forward 5 Year Mobility Manual Adjust 2016 Estimate K = 49 1 > > > > % 63% Gr 1 = 64 2 > > > > % 91% Gr 2 = 59 3 > > > > % 83% Gr 3 = 55 4 > > > > % 83% Gr 4 = 63 5 > > > > % 81% Gr 5 = 72 6 > > > > % 99% Gr 6 = 55 7 > > > > % 68% Gr 7 = 79 8 > > > > % 87% Gr 8 = 88 9 > > > > % 110% Gr 9 = > > > > % 92% Gr 10 = > > > > % 100% Gr 11 = > > > > % 69% Gr 12 = Total > < 1 12 Total 70 K Total (Adjusted Census) 872 << K 12 Total Prior Year K 12 Total Current Year >> Year Over Year Change Census 2016 Estimate 2010 Census Age Appropriate Population to Grade Level Enrollment K st Gr nd Gr rd Gr th Gr th Gr th Gr th Gr th Gr th Gr th Gr K 11th 1st Gr 2nd Gr 3rd Gr 4th Gr 79 5th Gr 6th Gr 79 7th Gr 8th Gr 9th Gr 10th Gr 11th Gr 12th Gr 12th Gr Census Estimate The graph to the left compares the districts projected enrollment for the current year (yellow and black bar) to the 2010 US census age count in the district. Often a district is not serving all of the censusage identified children because of a multitude of factors to include: open enrollment out, community school out, home schooled, etc. M The graph to the right compares the difference between the district's current year grade level enrollment estimate versus the prior year's enrollment at the district. For example, the yellow and black bar above 1st Grade represents the difference between the current year's grade 1 enrollment estimate and the prior year's Kdg enrollment. The blue bar above grade 1 represents the district's last year 1st grade enrollment difference from the 2 year ago Kdg enrollment Change in Student FTE from Prior Year Grade Level Census 2015 Estimate 2016 Estimate Grade 1st Gr 7 2 2nd Gr 4 3 3rd Gr 4 5 4th Gr 2 3 5th Gr 5 0 6th Gr 4 0 7th Gr 3 1 8th Gr 4 3 9th Gr th Gr 6 1 1st Gr 2nd Gr 3rd Gr 4th Gr 5th Gr 6th Gr 7th Gr 8th Gr 9th Gr 10th Gr 11th Gr 12th Gr 11th Gr Estimate Estimate 12th Gr

24 Mobility & Enrollment Modeling 2017 District "Head Count" Students Enrolled at District Enrollment as % of Prior Year Enrollment as % Grade 2010 Census Manual Estimate 2017 K Estimate Grade ADM of 2010 Census K Not Available % Not Available 2016 Actual 2016 Class Size Class Size 2017 Grade Brought Forward 5 Year Mobility Manual Adjust 2017 Estimate K = 70 1 > > > > % 114% Gr 1 = 47 2 > > > > % 65% Gr 2 = 67 3 > > > > % 82% Gr 3 = 54 4 > > > > % 88% Gr 4 = 58 5 > > > > % 83% Gr 5 = 63 6 > > > > % 81% Gr 6 = 72 7 > > > > % 100% Gr 7 = 56 8 > > > > % 66% Gr 8 = 76 9 > > > > % 86% Gr 9 = > > > > % 109% Gr 10 = > > > > % 90% Gr 11 = > > > > % 94% Gr 12 = Total > < 1 12 Total 70 K Total (Adjusted Census) 869 << K 12 Total Prior Year K 12 Total Current Year >> Year Over Year Change Census 2017 Estimate K Census Data 72 to Grade Level 70 Enrollment 1st Gr nd Gr rd Gr th Gr th Gr th Gr th Gr th Gr th Gr th Gr K 11th Gr th 1st Gr Gr 2nd Gr 3rd Gr 4th 79 Gr 5th Gr 6th 74 Gr 7th Gr 8th Gr 9th Gr 10th Gr 11th Gr 12th Gr 2010 Census 2017 Estimate The graph to the left compares the districts projected enrollment for the current year (yellow and black bar) to the 2010 US census age count in the district. Often a district is not serving all of the censusage identified children because of a multitude of factors to include: open enrollment out, community school out, home schooled, etc. M The graph to the right compares the difference between the district's current year grade level enrollment estimate versus the prior year's enrollment at the district. For example, the yellow and black bar above 1st Grade represents the difference between the current year's grade 1 enrollment estimate and the prior year's Kdg enrollment. The blue bar above grade 1 represents the district's last year 1st grade enrollment difference from the 2 year ago Kdg enrollment Change in Student FTE from Prior Year Grade Level 2016 Estimate 2017 Estimate Grade 1st Gr 2 3 2nd Gr 3 2 3rd Gr 5 6 4th Gr 3 3 5th Gr 0 0 6th Gr 0 0 7th Gr 1 1 8th Gr 3 2 9th Gr th Gr th 1st Gr 2nd Gr 3rd Gr 4th 2Gr 5th Gr 6th 1 Gr 7th Gr 8th Gr 9th Gr 10th Gr 11th Gr 12th Gr 12th Gr Estimate Estimate 24

25 Mobility & Enrollment Modeling 2018 District "Head Count" Students Enrolled at District Enrollment as % of Prior Year Enrollment as % Grade 2010 Census Manual Estimate 2018 K Estimate Grade ADM of 2010 Census K Not Available % Not Available 2017 Actual 2017 Class Size Class Size 2018 Grade Brought Forward 5 Year Mobility Manual Adjust 2018 Estimate K = 70 1 > > > > % 93% Gr 1 = 67 2 > > > > % 119% Gr 2 = 49 3 > > > > % 60% Gr 3 = 61 4 > > > > % 86% Gr 4 = 57 5 > > > > % 88% Gr 5 = 58 6 > > > > % 83% Gr 6 = 63 7 > > > > % 82% Gr 7 = 73 8 > > > > % 96% Gr 8 = 54 9 > > > > % 65% Gr 9 = > > > > % 85% Gr 10 = > > > > % 106% Gr 11 = > > > > % 85% Gr 12 = Total > < 1 12 Total 70 K Total (Adjusted Census) 863 << K 12 Total Prior Year K 12 Total Current Year >> Year Over Year Change 2010 Census 2018 Estimate Census Data to Grade Level Enrollment K 70 1st Gr nd Gr rd Gr th Gr th Gr th Gr th Gr th Gr th Gr th Gr K 11th Gr st Gr 2nd Gr 3rd Gr 4th Gr 5th Gr 6th Gr 12th Gr th Gr 8th Gr 9th Gr 10th Gr 11th Gr 12th Gr 2010 Census 2018 Estimate The graph to the left compares the districts projected enrollment for the current year (yellow and black bar) to the 2010 US census age count in the district. Often a district is not serving all of the censusage identified children because of a multitude of factors to include: open enrollment out, community school out, home schooled, etc. M The graph to the right compares the difference between the district's current year grade level enrollment estimate versus the prior year's enrollment at the district. For example, the yellow and black bar above 1st Grade represents the difference between the current year's grade 1 enrollment estimate and the prior year's Kdg enrollment. The blue bar above grade 1 represents the district's last year 1st grade enrollment difference from the 2 year ago Kdg enrollment Change in Student FTE from Prior Year Grade Level 2017 Estimate 2018 Estimate Grade 1st Gr 3 3 2nd Gr 2 3 3rd Gr 6 4 4th Gr 3 3 5th Gr 0 0 6th Gr 0 0 7th Gr 1 1 8th Gr 2 3 9th Gr th Gr th 1st Gr 2nd Gr 3rd Gr 4th 1 Gr 5th Gr 2 6th Gr 7th Gr 8th Gr 9th Gr 10th Gr 11th Gr 12th Gr 12th Gr Estimate Estimate 25

26 Mobility & Enrollment Modeling 2019 District "Head Count" Students Enrolled at District Enrollment as % of Prior Year Enrollment as % Grade 2010 Census Manual Estimate 2019 K Estimate Grade ADM of 2010 Census K Not Available % Not Available 2018 Actual 2018 Class Size Class Size 2019 Grade Brought Forward 5 Year Mobility Manual Adjust 2019 Estimate K = 70 1 > > > > % Not Available Gr 1 = 67 2 > > > > % 97% Gr 2 = 70 3 > > > > % 108% Gr 3 = 45 4 > > > > % 64% Gr 4 = 64 5 > > > > % 86% Gr 5 = 57 6 > > > > % 88% Gr 6 = 58 7 > > > > % 84% Gr 7 = 64 8 > > > > % 78% Gr 8 = 70 9 > > > > % 95% Gr 9 = > > > > % 63% Gr 10 = > > > > % 84% Gr 11 = > > > > % 99% Gr 12 = Total > < 1 12 Total 70 K Total (Adjusted Census) 847 << K 12 Total Prior Year K 12 Total Current Year >> Year Over Year Change Census 2019 Estimate K Census Data 0 to Grade 70 Level Enrollment 1st Gr nd Gr rd Gr th Gr th Gr th Gr th Gr th Gr th Gr th Gr K 11th 1st Gr Gr 2nd Gr 3rd Gr 4th 87 Gr 5th Gr 6th 73 Gr 7th Gr 8th Gr 9th Gr 10th Gr 11th Gr 12th Gr 12th Gr Census 2019 Estimate The graph to the left compares the districts projected enrollment for the current year (yellow and black bar) to the 2010 US census age count in the district. Often a district is not serving all of the censusage identified children because of a multitude of factors to include: open enrollment out, community school out, home schooled, etc. M The graph to the right compares the difference between the district's current year grade level enrollment estimate versus the prior year's enrollment at the district. For example, the yellow and black bar above 1st Grade represents the difference between the current year's grade 1 enrollment estimate and the prior year's Kdg enrollment. The blue bar above grade 1 represents the district's last year 1st grade enrollment difference from the 2 year ago Kdg enrollment. Change in Student FTE from Prior Year Grade Level Estimate 2019 Estimate 2 Grade 1 1st Gr nd Gr rd Gr th Gr th Gr th Gr 0 0 7th Gr th Gr th Gr th Gr th 1st Gr Gr 2nd Gr 3rd Gr 4th 2 Gr 5th Gr 16th Gr 7th Gr 8th Gr 9th Gr 10th Gr 11th Gr 12th Gr 2018 Estimate 2019 Estimate 12th Gr