RETAIL FAST FACTS. Monthly Growth Rate Montréal, Quebec Quebec Alberta Nova Scotia Ontario
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1 Retail Fast Facts Edition for September 2018 Retail Fast Facts Edition for September Retail Fast Facts with Sales Data for July Canadian retail sales changed by 0.3 percent Provincial Retail Sales Summary... 3 National Sales Summary... 4 Growth Rates for Key Sectors... 5 Key Sectors Contributing to National Growth Rate for July National Seasonally Adjusted Sales by Sector for July Price and Volume Movements for Canada for July Summary Aggregate Growth Rates for July National Seasonally Adjusted $K Sales by Sector for July Key Sectors Contributing to National $K Laspeyres Growth Rate for July National Seasonally Adjusted $K Sales by Sector for July $K2012 Retail Trade Aggregates Influence of Gasoline Prices on Price Seasonally Unadjusted Retail Services Price Indices for 2018-Q Selected Detail for Raw Retail Services Price Indices for 2018-Q Seasonally Unadjusted E-commerce Data for July Seasonally Unadjusted Sales by Sector for Canada for July Seasonally Unadjusted Sales by Province for July Seasonally Unadjusted Sales Excluding Cars and Gasoline by Province for July Recent Months - Seasonally Unadj. Sales Excl. Cars and Gasoline by Province for July Annual Sales by Sector for Canada for July Annual Sales by Region LFS Retail Employment by Province Retail Locations with Employees by Sector for Retail Locations with Employees by Province for Labour Income in Retail by Province Labour Income in Retail by Sector Retail Capital Expenditure Annual Sales of Key Retail Commodities Same Day Automobile Travel by Foreigners and Canadians for July About this Publication Trend Estimation Statistics Canada Matrices Used Formulas Rolling Sum Year over Year Growth Rate Average Annual Rate of Growth
2 Retail Fast Facts with Sales Data for July 2018 Canadian retail sales changed by 0.3 percent. On a seasonally-adjusted basis, the following provinces or cities changed by more than the national average. Newfoundland and Labrador Prince Edward Island Nova Scotia New Brunswick Quebec Montréal, Quebec Saskatchewan Alberta Yukon Northwest Territories Nunavut Some provinces contributed disproportionately to the Canadian increase on the basis of their size as well as their growth rate. The following table shows the provinces which contributed the most to the national growth rate. Province Percentage Contribution Monthly Growth Rate Montréal, Quebec Quebec Alberta Nova Scotia Ontario Trend estimates, shown below, are calculated as centre-weighted moving averages with near-term estimates using truncated weights to include recent history. As such they are a measure of momentum and direction in the actual seasonally adjusted data. A link to the methodology is included at the end of the report. 2
3 Provincial Retail Sales Summary Region Current Month Trend Value Last Month Year/Year Monthly Yr/Yr Trend $millions % Canada 50, , , Newfoundland and Labrador Prince Edward Island Nova Scotia 1, , , New Brunswick 1, , , Quebec 10, , , Montréal, Quebec 5, , , Ontario 18, , , Toronto, Ontario 7, , , Manitoba 1, , , Saskatchewan 1, , , Alberta 6, , , British Columbia 7, , , Vancouver, British Columbia 3, , , Yukon Northwest Territories Nunavut
4 National Sales Summary This chart shows the main retail sales aggregate and an aggregate which excludes auto-related expenditure including gasoline sales. Because this aggregate excludes the price movements in gasoline, it exhibits more stability. These series are all in seasonally-adjusted nominal terms. In the detailed analysis below, a trend estimate based on a weighted average of the last 6 observations is shown. This trend estimate is based on a methodology developed by Statistics Canada. The following sectors are more than 2% above their trend estimate. Convenience stores 4
5 Growth Rates for Key Sectors Key Sectors Contributing to National Growth Rate for July 2018 Sector Monthly Growth Rate Composition of Growth Retail trade Gasoline stations Supermarkets and other grocery (except convenience) stores Miscellaneous store retailers Electronics and appliance stores Beer, wine and liquor stores % 5
6 National Seasonally Adjusted Sales by Sector for July 2018 Sector Current Month Trend Value Last Month Year/Year Monthly Yr/Yr Trend $millions % Retail trade 50, , , Total Motor Vehicles & Parts 13, , , Automobile dealers 11, , , New car dealers 10, , , Used car dealers Oth. motor veh. dealers Automotive parts & tires Furniture & home furnishings 1, , , Furniture stores Home furnishings Electronics & appl. 1, , , Building mat. & garden equip. etc. 3, , , Total Food & beverage stores 10, , , Grocery stores 7, , , Supermarkets & oth. grocery 7, , , Convenience stores Specialty food stores Beer, wine & liquor 2, , , Health & personal care 3, , , Gasoline stations 5, , , Clothing & accessories 2, , , Clothing stores 2, , , Shoe stores Jewellery, lugg. & leather etc Sporting, hobby, book & music 1, , , General merchandise stores 5, , , Miscellaneous store retailers 1, , , Autos and Gas 19, , , Retail ex Autos & Gas 31, , ,
7 Price and Volume Movements for Canada for July 2018 The chart on the left above shows the data measured in current prices and after adjusting for price change to show volume movements. The chart on the right shows the year over year change in the underlying Fisher price index. Measured in current prices, retail sales changed by 3.7 per cent over the last 12 months. In volume terms ($K), retail sales changed by 0.7 per cent over the same period. The retail goods price index, measured with Fisher fixed weights, changed by 3 per cent over the past year. Much of the recent volatility can be attributed to changes in exchange rates and the gasoline price. The horizontal line shows the arithmetic mean of these year-over-year changes. Summary Aggregate Growth Rates for July 2018 Type Variable Retail$C Levels M/M % Y/Y % Retail$K Price Retail$C Retail$K Price Retail$C Retail$K Price Sales measures are in billions of dollars. The price index is 2012=100. 7
8 National Seasonally Adjusted $K Sales by Sector for July 2018 This chart is defined using base-period Laspyres prices. Laspyres price estimates are considered to provide a slightly higher estimate of inflation than the Fisher estimates reported above. However, Statistics Canada provides the Laspyres $K estimates at a more detaile level shown in the chart above. Key Sectors Contributing to National $K Laspeyres Growth Rate for July 2018 Sector Monthly Growth Rate Composition of Growth Retail trade Motor vehicle and parts dealers ,130.0 General merchandise stores Health and personal care stores Home furnishings stores Specialty food stores % 8
9 National Seasonally Adjusted $K Sales by Sector for July 2018 Sector Current Month Trend Value Last Month Year/Year Monthly $K 2012 millions % Yr/Yr Trend Share of Monthly Retail trade 47, , , Total Motor Vehicles & Parts 11, , , ,130.0 Automobile dealers 10, , , ,320.0 New car dealers 9, , , ,335.0 Used car dealers Oth. motor veh. dealers Automotive parts & tires Furniture & home furnishings 1, , , Furniture stores Home furnishings Electronics & appl. 1, , , Building mat. & garden equip. etc. 3, , , Total Food & beverage stores 9, , , Grocery stores 7, , , Supermarkets & oth. grocery 6, , , Convenience stores Specialty food stores Beer, wine & liquor 1, , , Health & personal care 3, , , Gasoline stations 5, , , Clothing & accessories 2, , , Clothing stores 2, , , Shoe stores Jewellery, lugg. & leather etc Sporting, hobby, book & music 1, , , General merchandise stores 5, , , Miscellaneous store retailers 1, , , Autos and Gas 17, , , ,125.0 Retail ex Autos & Gas 30, , , ,
10 $K2012 Retail Trade Aggregates Influence of Gasoline Prices on Price The chart below shows the base-weighted Laspeyres price index for total retail sales in the left panel and for retail sales excluding gasoline stations on the right. The point of the chart is to indicate the impact of gasoline prices on recent changes in price measures and in nominal retail sales. Gasoline price changes have added significnat volatility as well as obscured the impact of other factors such as exchange rate changes. 10
11 Seasonally Unadjusted Retail Services Price Indices for 2018-Q1 The chart above shows the price index for the service provided by the retail sector in retailing final goods to consumers. The base year for the price indices is 2013=100. The service margin is the economic production of the retail sector since the goods production is done by other sectors. Its price is based on the difference between the vendor price paid by the retailer and the price received by the retailer. The data are seasonally unadjusted so volatility is necessarily higher and changes between observations should be interpreted with care. The new car sectors (NAICS Codes 4411, 4412) are excluded from the underlying survey and hence from the aggregate. Averaging the year over year changes for the last two quarters yields an unweighted value of 0.4. There were more than 21 sectors with more than double that value. Notable sectors include: Men's clothing Other health & personal care Floor covering Other gasoline stations Women's clothing 11
12 Selected Detail for Raw Retail Services Price Indices for 2018-Q1 Sector 2017-Q Q Q1 / 2017-Q Q4 / 2016-Q4 Seasonally Unadjusted 2013=100 % 2018-Q1 / 2017-Q1 Retail trade Automotive parts & accessories Furniture & home furnishings Furniture Home furnishings Floor covering Other home furnishings Electronics & appliance Building material & garden equipment & supplies Building material & supplies Lawn & garden equipment & supplies Food & beverage Grocery Supermarkets & other grocery (except convenience) Convenience Specialty food Beer, wine & liquor Health & personal care Pharmacies & drug Cosmetics, beauty supplies & perfume Optical goods Other health & personal care Gasoline stations Gasoline stations with convenience Other gasoline stations Clothing & clothing accessories Clothing Men's clothing Women's clothing Family clothing Other clothing Shoe Jewellery, luggage & leather goods Jewellery Luggage & leather goods Sporting goods, hobby, book & music Sporting goods Hobby, toy & game General merchandise Miscellaneous store retailers
13 Seasonally Unadjusted E-commerce Data for July 2018 NAICS $millions % / (%) Store-Focussed Retail Sales 50, , , , , Store-Focussed Retail Sales Excl. Autos & Gas 31, , , , , Electronic shopping and mail-order houses , , Retail E-commerce sales including , , , , , E-commerce/Store-focussed Retail+45411(%) NA E-commerce/Store-focussed Ex Autos&Gas+45411(%) NA Retail e-commerce sales include the electronic sales of pure-play Canadian retailers shown in NAICS as well as those in store-focussed businesses. Differing seasonal factors, prices and volumes makes the interpretation of trends in the shares shown in this table difficult. Sales of Amazon.ca, Wayfair.ca and similar foreign suppliers to Canadians are not included. The unweighted average ratio of the e-commerce estimate to the aggregate excluding autos and gas stations for the last 4 months was 4.2 percent. 13
14 Seasonally Unadjusted Sales by Sector for Canada for July 2018 Sector Current Month Rolling Sum Year to Date Year/Year Y/Y Rolling Sum Yr/Yr YTD $millions % Retail trade 52, , , Total Motor Vehicles & Parts 14, , , Automobile dealers 12, , , New car dealers 11, , , Used car dealers 1, , , Oth. motor veh. dealers 1, , , Automotive parts & tires , , Furniture & home furnishings 1, , , Furniture stores 1, , , Home furnishings , , Electronics & appl. 1, , , Building mat. & garden equip. etc. 3, , , Total Food & beverage stores 10, , , Grocery stores 7, , , Supermarkets & oth. grocery 7, , , Convenience stores , , Specialty food stores , , Beer, wine & liquor 2, , , Health & personal care 3, , , Gasoline stations 6, , , Clothing & accessories 2, , , Clothing stores 2, , , Shoe stores , , Jewellery, lugg. & leather etc , , Sporting, hobby, book & music 1, , , General merchandise stores 5, , , Miscellaneous store retailers 1, , , Autos and Gas 20, , , Retail ex Autos & Gas 32, , ,
15 Seasonally Unadjusted Sales by Province for July 2018 Province Current Month Rolling Sum Year to Date Year/Year Y/Y Rolling Sum Yr/Yr YTD $millions % Canada 52, , , Newfoundland and Labrador , , Prince Edward Island , , Nova Scotia 1, , , New Brunswick 1, , , Quebec 11, , , Montréal, Quebec 5, , , Ontario 19, , , Toronto, Ontario 7, , , Manitoba 1, , , Saskatchewan 1, , , Alberta 7, , , British Columbia 7, , , Vancouver, British Columbia 3, , , Yukon Northwest Territories Nunavut
16 Seasonally Unadjusted Sales Excluding Cars and Gasoline by Province for July 2018 Province Current Month Rolling Sum Year to Date Year/Year $millions % Y/Y Rolling Sum Yr/Yr YTD Canada 32, , , Newfoundland and Labrador , , Prince Edward Island , Nova Scotia , , New Brunswick , , Quebec 7, , , Montréal, Quebec 3, , , Ontario 11, , , Toronto, Ontario 4, , , Manitoba 1, , , Saskatchewan 1, , , Alberta 4, , , British Columbia 4, , , Vancouver, British Columbia 2, , , Recent Months - Seasonally Unadj. Sales Excl. Cars and Gasoline by Province for July 2018 Region Year over Year Percentage Canada Newfoundland and Labrador Prince Edward Island Nova Scotia New Brunswick Quebec Montréal, Quebec Ontario Toronto, Ontario Manitoba Saskatchewan Alberta British Columbia Vancouver, British Columbia
17 Annual Sales by Sector for Canada for July 2018 Sector Average Ann. Growth Rate Sector Share Seasonally Unadjusted $millions % Retail trade 484, , , , , Total Motor Vehicles & Parts 113, , , , , Automobile dealers 97, , , , , New car dealers 91, , , , , Used car dealers 6, , , , , Oth. motor veh. dealers 7, , , , , Automotive parts & tires 7, , , , , Furniture & home furnishings 15, , , , , Furniture stores 9, , , , , Home furnishings 5, , , , , Electronics & appl. 13, , , , , Building mat. & garden equip. etc. 27, , , , , Total Food & beverage stores 108, , , , , Grocery stores 82, , , , , Supermarkets & oth. grocery 76, , , , , Convenience stores 6, , , , , Specialty food stores 5, , , , , Beer, wine & liquor 19, , , , , Health & personal care 35, , , , , Gasoline stations 61, , , , , Clothing & accessories 27, , , , , Clothing stores 21, , , , , Shoe stores 3, , , , , Jewellery, lugg. & leather etc. 2, , , , , Sporting, hobby, book & music 10, , , , , General merchandise stores 59, , , , , Miscellaneous store retailers 11, , , , , Autos and Gas 174, , , , , Retail ex Autos & Gas 309, , , , ,
18 Annual Sales by Region Province Average Ann. Growth Rate Regional Share Seasonally Unadjusted $millions % Canada 484, , , , , Newfoundland and Labrador 8, , , , , Prince Edward Island 1, , , , , Nova Scotia 13, , , , , New Brunswick 11, , , , , Quebec 106, , , , , Montréal, Quebec 48, , , , , Ontario 168, , , , , Toronto, Ontario 68, , , , , Manitoba 17, , , , , Saskatchewan 18, , , , , Alberta 73, , , , , British Columbia 62, , , , , Vancouver, British Columbia 28, , , , , Yukon Northwest Territories Nunavut
19 LFS Retail Employment by Province Province Employment Average Ann. Growth Share of Total Empl. Province LFS (000) % Canada Newfoundland and Labrador Prince Edward Island Nova Scotia New Brunswick Quebec Ontario Manitoba Saskatchewan Alberta British Columbia Total 2, , , Full-time 1, , , Part-time Total Full-time Part-time Total Full-time Part-time Total Full-time Part-time Total Full-time Part-time Total Full-time Part-time Total Full-time Part-time Total Full-time Part-time Total Full-time Part-time Total Full-time Part-time Total Full-time Part-time Data include self-employed and employees. 19
20 Retail Locations with Employees by Sector for Sector Total Number of Employees Retail trade 144,844 94,251 26,897 15,170 5,576 2,950 Automobile dealers 6,229 2, , Other motor vehicle dealers 2,234 1, Automotive parts, accessories and tire stores 4,657 2,993 1, Furniture stores 3,279 2, Home furnishings stores 4,302 3, Electronics and appliance stores 8,244 6, Building material and supplies dealers 6,937 3,964 1,385 1, Lawn and garden equipment and supplies stores 1, Grocery stores 15,348 9,329 1,922 1,308 1,521 1,268 Specialty food stores 6,876 4,623 1, Beer, wine and liquor stores 4,148 2,283 1, Health and personal care stores 16,655 10,671 2,840 2, Gasoline stations 9,457 6,285 2, Clothing stores 16,477 10,296 3,612 1, Shoe stores 3,226 2, Jewellery, luggage and leather goods stores 3,500 2, Sporting goods, hobby and musical instrument stores 5,721 3, Book stores and news dealers 1, Department stores Other general merchandise stores 6,167 3,105 1, Florists 1,785 1, Office supplies, stationery and gift stores 3,549 2, Used merchandise stores 1, Other miscellaneous store retailers 7,177 5,
21 Retail Locations with Employees by Province for Geography Total Number of Employees Canada 144,844 94,251 26,897 15,170 5,576 2,950 Newfoundland and Labrador 2,814 1, Prince Edward Island Nova Scotia 4,252 2, New Brunswick 3,430 2, Quebec 33,875 22,026 5,881 3,944 1, Ontario 51,632 33,914 9,268 5,225 1,997 1,228 Manitoba 4,703 2,848 1, Saskatchewan 4,957 3, Alberta 17,397 11,098 3,394 1, British Columbia 20,571 13,580 3,989 1, Yukon Northwest Territories Nunavut
22 Labour Income in Retail by Province Province Compensation Average Ann. Growth Canada Newfoundland and Labrador Prince Edward Island Nova Scotia New Brunswick Quebec Ontario Manitoba Saskatchewan Alberta British Columbia Yukon Northwest Territories Nunavut $ % Total Compensation 62, , , , Employee $HR Total Compensation 1, , , , Employee $HR Total Compensation Employee $HR Total Compensation 1, , , , Employee $HR Total Compensation 1, , , , Employee $HR Total Compensation 13, , , , Employee $HR Total Compensation 22, , , , Employee $HR Total Compensation 1, , , , Employee $HR Total Compensation 2, , , , Employee $HR Total Compensation 8, , , , Employee $HR Total Compensation 8, , , , Employee $HR Total Compensation Employee $HR Total Compensation Employee $HR Total Compensation Employee $HR Compensation in $millions includes self-employed income and employer's social contributions. Sector definition includes non-store retailers. Employer's Social Contributions are also referred to as supplementary labour income. This income is divided into six distinct categories which include employers' contributions to registered private and public sector pension plans, the Canada and Quebec pension plans, the Employment Insurance Fund, workers' compensation funds, health and life insurance plans, and retirement allowances. 22
23 Labour Income in Retail by Sector Sector Compensation Average Ann. Growth Retail trade Motor vehicle and parts dealers Furniture and home furnishings stores Electronics and appliance stores Building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers Food and beverage stores Health and personal care stores Gasoline stations Clothing and clothing accessories stores Sporting goods, hobby, book and music stores General merchandise stores Miscellaneous store retailers Non-store retailers $ % Total Compensation 62, , , , Employee $HR Total Compensation 9, , , , Employee $HR Total Compensation 3, , , , Employee $HR Total Compensation 2, , , , Employee $HR Total Compensation 5, , , , Employee $HR Total Compensation 12, , , , Employee $HR Total Compensation 6, , , , Employee $HR Total Compensation 2, , , , Employee $HR Total Compensation 6, , , , Employee $HR Total Compensation 2, , , , Employee $HR Total Compensation 7, , , , Employee $HR Total Compensation 2, , , , Employee $HR Total Compensation 1, , , , Employee $HR Compensation in $millions includes self-employed income and employer's social contributions. Sector definition includes non-store retailers. 23
24 Retail Capital Expenditure Province Average Ann. Growth Total Capital Share $ % Canada 7, , , , Newfoundland and Labrador Prince Edward Island Nova Scotia New Brunswick Quebec NA 1, , ,319.4 NA 3.5 Ontario 2, , , , Manitoba Saskatchewan Alberta 1, , , , British Columbia Yukon NA NA 1.2 Northwest Territories NA NA 0.7 Nunavut NA NA
25 Annual Sales of Key Retail Commodities Commodity Avg. Ann. Growth Share of All Goods $millions % Commodities, Commissions & Services 484, , , , Retail Services (except commissions) 470, , , , Food 84, , , , Soft drinks and non-alcoholic beverages 6, , , , Alcoholic beverages 21, , , , Clothing 27, , , , Men's clothing 8, , , , Women's clothing 15, , , , Children's and infants' clothing, 3, , , , Footwear 6, , , , Jewellery and watches, 3, , , , Home furniture, furnish., appl. & electronics 42, , , , Indoor home furniture 8, , , , Home furnishings 4, , , , Home appliances 6, , , , Home electronics 12, , , , Toys and games, 3, , , , Motor vehicles 83, , , , New motor vehicles 56, , , , Used motor vehicles 26, , , , Recreational vehicles 6, , , , Motor vehicle parts, acc. & supplies 16, , , , Automotive fuels 55, , , , Pharmaceuticals 30, , , , Personal and beauty products, 9, , , , Hardware and tools, 4, , , , Renovation materials and supplies, 24, , , , Home lawn & garden equip. and supplies 2, , , , Retail trade commissions 4, , , ,
26 Same Day Automobile Travel by Foreigners and Canadians for July 2018 Province Direction 2017 Jul 2018 Jun 2018 Jul Monthly 12 Month Canada Share People % Canada New Brunswick Quebec Ontario Manitoba Saskatchewan Alberta British Columbia Yukon Canadians 2,085, ,998, ,092, Foreign 1,000, , , Canadians 179, , , Foreign 65, , , Canadians 173, , , Foreign 61, , , Canadians 1,020, , , Foreign 655, , , Canadians 54, , , Foreign 19, , , Canadians 11, , , Foreign 3, , , Canadians 17, , , Foreign 13, , , Canadians 621, , , Foreign 174, , , Canadians 6, , , Foreign 7, , , Seasonally Unadjusted 26
27 About this Publication The materials in this report are based on data drawn from Statistics Canada under its open license. Retail Fast Facts is a product of the Retail Council of Canada and is copyrighted. The charts, tables and analysis were developed by Jacobson Consulting Inc (JCI). In particular, JCI is responsible for the detailed trend_cycle timeseries and special aggregates such as those excluding auto retailers and gasoline stations. Trend Estimation The trend methodology was developed at Statistics Canada and is documented at this link JCI has licensed its R implementation of the Statistics Canada methodology to RCC for use in this publication. The current-period trend estimate is the 6 period weighted average of recent data. If the current observation is below the trend estimate, this might indicate a change in momentum or direction. Statistics Canada Matrices Used Retail Store Data , E-commerce retail data Retail Services Price Data LFS Data Compensation Capital Expenditure Retail Commodity Data Same Day Travel Data Retail Locations Data Formulas Rolling Sum i=11 t=0 X t i The sum of the observations from the current period back over the last year Year over Year Growth Rate (( X t=0 X t 12 ) 1) The year over year growth rate is calculated as the ratio of the two observations to give the simple proportionate change between the two periods. Average Annual Rate of Growth 1 ) X t n ((( X t=0 n ) 1) The compound average annual rate of growth is the rate which applied N times (once per period) to the base observation will yield the end point. 27
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