APPLICATIONS OF ECONOMIC DATA

Transcription

1 APPLICATIONS OF ECONOMIC DATA Spring Data Users Workshop April 2004 Tony Sylvester Bureau of Business and Economic Research University of New Mexico (505)

2 EXAMPLES: 1. Create a county level profile of business and employment 2. Identify industries that may have a competitive advantage 3. Estimate the sales of a grocery store and an area s expenditures at grocery stores 2

3 EXAMPLE 1: PROFILING EMPLOYMENT AND BUSINESSES IN SANTA FE COUNTY 3

4 Business and Employment Profile What industries are important employers in Santa Fe County? What are the characteristics of the establishments in this industry? How have employment and establishments in this industry changed over time? 4

5 SANTA FE COUNTY EMPLOYMENT, ANNUAL PAYROLL, AND NUMBER OF ESTABLISHMENTS, NAICS Code Sector Employees Annual Payroll ($1,000) Establishments Total 44,482 1,204,599 4, Forestry/fishing/hunting/ag. support D 8 21 Mining 54 1, Utilities 232 9, Construction 4, , Manufacturing 1,342 37, Wholesale trade 1,533 57, Retail trade 9, , Transportation & warehousing 353 8, Information 1,201 41, Finance and Insurance 1,838 96, Real estate & rental & leasing 1,050 31, Professional, scientific & tech. serv. 2, , Mgt. of companies & enterprises 264 7, Admin, support, wst. mgt, remediation 1,858 40, Educational services 1,727 44, Health care & social assistance 5, , Arts, entertainment & recreation 1,598 42, Accommodation & food service 7, , Other serv. (exc. public admin.) 2,538 56, Auxiliaries D 3 99 Unclassified establishments 69 1, Source: County Business Patterns, paid employees for the pay period including March 12. 5

6 SANTA FE COUNTY: DISTRIBUTION OF EMPLOYEES 1 NAICS Code Sector Employees Percent of ttl. Emp. Total 44, % 11 Forestry/fishing/hunting/ag. support D 21 Mining % 22 Utilities % 23 Construction 4, % Manufacturing 1, % 42 Wholesale trade 1, % Retail trade 9, % Transportation & warehousing % 51 Information 1, % 52 Finance and Insurance 1, % 53 Real estate & rental & leasing 1, % 54 Professional, scientific & tech. serv. 2, % 55 Mgt. of companies & enterprises % 56 Admin, support, wst. mgt, remediation 1, % 61 Educational services 1, % 62 Health care & social assistance 5, % 71 Arts, entertainment & recreation 1, % 72 Accommodation & food service 7, % 81 Other serv. (exc. public admin.) 2, % 95 Auxiliaries D 99 Unclassified establishments % Source: County Business Patterns, paid employees for the pay period including March 12. 6

7 DISTRIBUTION OF EMPLOYEES: SANTA FE COUNTY, NEW MEXICO, AND US, Percent of ttl Employees Santa NAICS Code Sector Fe County New Mexico United States Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 11 Forestry/fishing/hunting/ag. support D 0.1% 0.2% 21 Mining 0.1% 2.6% 0.4% 22 Utilities 0.5% 1.0% 0.6% 23 Construction 9.0% 8.3% 5.6% Manufacturing 3.0% 6.7% 13.9% 42 Wholesale trade 3.4% 3.9% 5.3% Retail trade 20.4% 16.1% 12.9% Transportation & warehousing 0.8% 2.4% 3.3% 51 Information 2.7% 2.8% 3.3% 52 Finance and Insurance 4.1% 4.5% 5.4% 53 Real estate & rental & leasing 2.4% 1.8% 1.8% 54 Professional, scientific & tech. serv. 5.5% 5.5% 6.2% 55 Mgt. of companies & enterprises 0.6% 1.5% 2.5% 56 Admin, support, wst. mgt, remediation 4.2% 6.4% 7.9% 61 Educational services 3.9% 1.7% 2.3% 62 Health care & social assistance 13.1% 14.7% 12.6% 71 Arts, entertainment & recreation 3.6% 2.5% 1.5% 72 Accommodation & food service 16.6% 12.6% 8.7% 81 Other serv. (exc. public admin.) 5.7% 4.9% 4.7% 95 Auxiliaries D 0.3% 0.9% 99 Unclassified establishments 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, County Business Patterns, New Mexico, paid employees for the pay period including March 12. 7

8 SANTA FE COUNTY RETAIL EMPLOYMENT: DISTRIBUTION AND CHANGE, Santa Fe County NAICS Change Code Description Emplys Percent Number Percent 44 Retail trade 9, % % 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers % % 442 Furniture & home furnishing stores % % 443 Electronics & appliance stores % % 444 Bldg material & garden equip & supp dealers % % 445 Food & beverage stores 1, % % 446 Health & personal care stores % % 447 Gasoline stations % % 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores 1, % % 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores % 0 0.0% 452 General merchandise stores 1, % % 453 Miscellaneous store retailers 1, % % 454 Nonstore retailers % % Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, County Business Patterns, New Mexico, 1998 and paid employees for the pay period including March 12. 8

9 SANTA FE COUNTY RETAIL ESTABLISHMENTS BY EMPLOYMENT-SIZE CLASS, 2001 Employment-size Class NAICS Code Description Total Estab Retail trade Motor vehicle & parts dealers Furniture & home furnishing stores Electronics & appliance stores Bldg material/garden equip/supp dealers Food & beverage stores Health & personal care stores Gasoline stations Clothing & clothing accessories stores Sporting goods, hobby, book/music stores General merchandise stores Miscellaneous store retailers Nonstore retailers Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, County Business Patterns, New Mexico,

10 SANTA FE COUNTY RETAIL SECTOR DERIVED MEASURES: EMPLOYEES PER ESTABLISHMENT, PAYROLL PER EMPLOYEE AND PAYROLL PER ESTABLISHMENT, 2001 Derived Measures NAICS Establishments Ttl Annual Payroll Code Description Emplys ($1,000) 44 Retail trade 9, , Motor vehicle & parts dealers , Furniture & home furnishing stores , Electronics & appliance stores , Bldg material/garden equip/supp dealers , Food & beverage stores 1, , Health & personal care stores , Gasoline stations , Clothing & clothing accessories stores 1, , Sporting goods, hobby, book/music stores , General merchandise stores 1, , Miscellaneous store retailers 1, , Nonstore retailers ,613 Emps per Estab Payroll per Emp Payroll per Estab 10.0 $22,049 $221, $38,626 $636, $24,694 $184, $22,812 $212, $24,732 $336, $20,234 $545, $15,616 $187, $13,829 $107, $18,759 $100, $12,842 $116, $16,404 $1,280, $27,130 $127, $28,492 $140,325 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, County Business Patterns, New Mexico,

11 EXAMPLE 2: IDENTIFYING INDUSTRIES WITH A COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE 11

12 Pull Factors: This example compares sales per dollar of income in Raton to sales per dollar of income in New Mexico: TGR Raton / Raton Income TGR NM / NM Income Income Decennial Census Receipts Taxable Gross Receipts (TGR) from NM Taxation and Revenue 12

13 13

14 Income Data: TOTAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME New Mexico City of Raton ,910,633, ,377,700 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Census of Population and Housing, 1990 (STF-3) and 2000 (SF-3). 14

15 GRT per dollar of Income TAXABLE GROSS RECEIPTS: NEW MEXICO AND RATON, Taxable Gross Receipts SIC Sector New Mexico Raton Total All Industries 30,157,467, ,723,084 Agriculture 64,110,247 D Mining 806,558,050 D Contract Construction 3,636,106,724 11,125,123 Manufacturing 835,755,453 1,548,054 T.C.U. 1,993,037,118 5,557,692 Wholesale 1,412,701,206 1,652,279 Retail 11,466,341,056 51,381,338 F.I.R.E 766,226,639 1,753,071 Sercives 9,020,118,673 29,852,218 Government 113,034,476 D Non-classified 43,448,061 D D - Not discosed. Source: New Mexico Taxation and Revenue Department, Rpt

16 TAXABLE GROSS RECEIPTS PER DOLLAR OF HOUSEHOLD INCOME: NEW MEXICO AND RATON, 1999 New Mexico City of Raton Taxable Gross Receipts 30,157,467, ,723,084 Household Income ($) 1 30,910,633, ,377,700 TGR PER $HH INCOME SIC Sector New Mexico Raton Total All Industries Agriculture 0.00 #VALUE! Mining 0.03 #VALUE! Contract Construction Manufacturing T.C.U Wholesale Retail F.I.R.E Sercives Government 0.00 #VALUE! Non-classified 0.00 #VALUE! Source: New Mexico Taxation and Revenue Department, Rpt U.S. Bureau of the Census, Census of Population and Housing, 1990 (STF-3) and 2000 (SF-3). 16

17 Calculate Pull Factor TAXABLE GROSS RECEIPTS PER DOLLAR OF HOUSEHOLD INCOME AND PULL FACTORS: NEW MEXICO AND RATON, 1999 TGR PER $HH INCOME SIC Sector New Mexico Raton Pull Factor Total All Industries Agriculture 0.00 #VALUE! #VALUE! Mining 0.03 #VALUE! #VALUE! Contract Construction Manufacturing T.C.U Wholesale Retail F.I.R.E Sercives Government 0.00 #VALUE! #VALUE! Non-classified 0.00 #VALUE! #VALUE! 17

18 PULL FACTORS BY INDUSTRY, CITY OF RATON VERSUS NEW MEXICO, 1999 From Taxable Gross Receipts per Dollar of Income Total All Industries Contract Construction Manufacturing T.C.U. Wholesale Retail F.I.R.E Sercives Some sectors not shown due to disclosure. Pull Factor Source of Data: NM Taxation and Revenue Dept Rpt 80 and 1990 and 2000 Decennial Census. UNM Bureau of Business and Economic Research,

19 RETAIL SECTOR PULL FACTORS, CITY OF RATON VERSUS NEW MEXICO, 1999 From Taxable Gross Receipts per Dollar of Income Retail Total Building Materials Hardware Gen Merch Stores - No Dept Department Stores Retail Food Stores Motor Vehicle Dealers Gasoline Stations Misc Veh & Auto Acc Dealers Apparel & Accessory Stores Furniture & Appliance Stores Eating & Drinking Places Liquor By the Drink Misc. Retailers Some retail subsectors not shown due to disclosure. Source of Data: NM Taxation and Revenue Dept Rpt 80 and 2000 Decennial Census. UNM Bureau of Business and Economic Research, Pull Factor 19

20 PULL FACTORS BY INDUSTRY, CITY OF RATON VERSUS NEW MEXICO, 1989 AND 1999 From Taxable Gross Receipts per Dollar of Income Total All Industries Contract Construction Manufacturing T.C.U. Wholesale Retail F.I.R.E Sercives Pull Factor Some sectors not shown due to disclosure. Source of Data: NM Taxation and Revenue Dept Rpt 80 and 1990 and 2000 Decennial Census. UNM Bureau of Business and Economic Research,

21 40,000,000 COLFAX COUNTY TOTAL RETAIL GROSS RECEIPTS TAX BY QUARTER, ,000,000 30,000, ,000,000 20,000, ,000,000 10,000,000 5,000,000 0 Source of Data: NM Taxation and Revenue Dept Rpt 80. UNM Bureau of Business and Economic Research,

22 EXAMPLE 3: ANALYSIS OF A NEW (HYPOTHETICAL) RETAIL FOOD STORE IN ARTESIA 22

23 Retail Food Store in Artesia Estimate the sales of a new 30,000 sq. ft. grocery store Estimate the expenditures made by the Artesia area at grocery stores Place the new store into existing Artesia 23

24 Data used: Economic Census Geographic Area Series and Retail Trade Merchandise Line Sales Decennial Census population and income data Bureau of Economic Analysis income data Consumer Price Index Consumer Expenditure Survey Gross Receipts Tax data 24

25 Estimating Sales: Floor space (given) / total floor space per employee = number of employees at establishment Number of employees at establishment X sales per employee = establishment sales in 1997 Establishment sales in 1997 X increase in consumer prices = establishment sales (2002) 25

26 NAICS SUPERMARKETS AND OTHER GROCERY RETAILERS EXCEPT CONVENIENCE STORES, FLOOR SPACE CHARACTERISTICS, NEW MEXICO, 1997 Geographic Area Name Number of establishments Sales ($1,000) Total floor space (1000 sq ft) Sales per Employee ($000) Total Floor Space Per Estab. Derived Total Floor Space per Emp. 1 New Mexico 315 1,934,821 6, , Source: US Census Bureau, Retail Trade: Miscellaneous Subjects: Floor Space By Selected Kind Of Business: Number of establishments Sales ($000) Derived Measures Sales per Employee ($000) Number of Sales Per Employees Geographic Area Name employees Estab ($000) Per Estab New Mexico 315 1,934,821 11,889 6, Albuquerque, MSA ,447 4,420 7, Rest of State 222 1,201,374 7,469 5, Source: Economic Census, US Census Bureau, Retail Trade: Geographic Area Series: calculated using data from the Geographic Area Series and Miscellaneous Subjects Report. 26

27 Estimating Total Establishment Receipts Establishment Total Floorspace (Sq. Ft.) 30,000 Divided by: Total Floorspace (Sq. Ft.) per Employee Equals: Employees at Establishment 57.5 Multiplied by: Receipts ($000) per Employee (1997) $160.8 Equals: Total Establishment Receipts ($000) (1997) $9,

28 Inflating Receipts Total Establishment Receipts ($000) (1997) $9,254.7 Multiplied by: Change in Consumer Price Index 1 7/97-9/03 CPI July July Change 1.12 Change in Cosumer Price Index 1.12 Equals: Estimated Total Establishment Receipts ($000) 2002 $10, Consumer Price Index - All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), Monthly Data - Not Seasonally Adjusted, All items, U.S. City Average 28

29 Estimating Expenditures at Grocery Stores Expenditures to be estimated include: Household expenditures on food Expenditures on non-food items Sales to other businesses 29

30 Which Households? 30

31 INFLATING ARTESIA CCD INCOME FROM 1999 TO 2002: Artesia CCD Aggregate Income, 1999 ($) $225,067,800 Increase in income, , Eddy County Change Total Personal Income ($000) $1,032,922 $1,152, Artesia CCD Estimated Aggregate Income (2001) $251,175,893 Increase in income, , New Mexico Change Total Personal Income ($000) $42,260,462 $44,351, Estimated Total Personal Income 2002 Artesia CCD Estimated Aggregate Income (2002) $263,604, US Census Bureau, Decennial Census, SF3, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Table SA1-3,

32 32

33 Table 2. Income before taxes: Average annualexpenditures and characteristics, Consumer Expenditure Survey, 2001 Complete reporting of income a/ Total Less $5,000 $10,000 $15,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $70,000 complete than to to to to to to to and Item reporting $5,000 $9,999 $14,999 $19,999 $29,999 $39,999 $49,999 $69,999 over Number of consumer units (in thousands)... 88,735 4,100 6,829 8,099 7,014 12,075 10,508 8,737 12,480 18,892 Income before taxes b/ (mean)... $47,507 $1,666 $7,675 $12,380 $17,282 $24,494 $34,456 $44,418 $58,943 $113,978 Income after taxes b/ (mean)... $44,587 $1,528 $7,678 $12,388 $17,086 $23,924 $33,047 $42,362 $55,572 $104,685 Average annual expenditures... $41,395 $20,517 $16,625 $20,642 $25,028 $28,623 $35,430 $40,900 $50,136 $76,124 Food... 5,662 3,497 3,051 3,406 3,763 4,499 5,071 5,904 6,851 9,066 Food at home... 3,253 1,974 2,101 2,210 2,524 2,904 3,136 3,488 3,742 4,565 Cereals and bakery products Cereals and cereal products Bakery products Meats, poultry, fish, and eggs ,145 Beef Pork Other meats Poultry Fish and seafood Eggs Dairy products Fresh milk and cream Other dairy products Fruits and vegetables Fresh fruits Fresh vegetables Processed fruits Processed vegetables Other food at home... 1, ,127 1,212 1,470 Sugar and other sweets Fats and oils Miscellaneous foods Nonalcoholic beverages Food prepared by consumer unit on out-of-town trips Food away from home... 2,409 1, ,195 1,238 1,595 1,935 2,415 3,109 4,501 Alcoholic beverages Housing... 13,120 7,307 6,021 7,472 8,305 9,525 11,006 12,248 15,356 23,622 33

34 Estimating Expenditures on Retail Food Average Annual Expenditures on Food at Home, 2001 Total Complete Reporting, All Income Categories Income before taxes $47,507 Food at home 3,253 Portion of income spent on food at home 6.8% Income Categories $15,000 - $19, % $30,000 - $39, % $70, % Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Expenditure Survey, Table 2, Income Before Taxes,

35 Estimating Expenditures on Retail Food Artesia CCD: Estimated Expenditures on Retail Food, 2002 Artesia CCD Estimated Aggregate Income, $263,604,061 Multiplied by: Portion of income spent on food at home Equals: Estimated Household Expenditures on Retail Food $18,050, income from 2000 Decennial Census inflated by increase in personal income (Bureau of Economic Analysis) in Eddy County ( ) and New Mexico ( ). 35

36 Non-Food Expenditures at Retail Food Stores - Merchandise Line Sales NAICS 4451: Grocery Stores, New Mexico, 1997 Number of establish ments Sales of estabs w/line ($1000) Ln sls as % of sls of est w/ln Ln sls as% of tot sls of NAICS Sales ML code Meaning of Merchandise line (ML) code ($1,000) 0 All merchandise lines 460 X 2,030,390 X Groceries & other foods for human consumption off the premises 460 2,030,390 1,436, Meals, unpackaged snacks, sandwiches, & nonalcoholic beverages ,644 16, Packaged liquor, wine, & beer 207 1,578, , Cigars, cigarettes, tobacco, & smokers' accessories 401 1,969,585 73, Drugs, health aids, & beauty aids 411 1,988, , Soaps, detergents, & household cleaners 377 1,933,081 53, Paper & related products 387 1,952,060 55, Men's wear 25 3, Z 220 Women's, juniors', & misses' wear 22 1, Z 260 Footwear 30 82, Z 270 Sewing, knitting, & needlework goods 29 82, Z 380 Kitchenware & home furnishings ,578 1, Books , Z 440 Photographic equipment & supplies , Z 460 Toys, hobby goods, & games 27 9, Z 600 Hardware, tools, & plumbing & electrical supplies , Z 620 Lawn, garden, farm equipment, supplies, cut flowers, etc ,385 7, Automotive fuels 56 63,060 13, Automotive lubricants ,550 1, Pets, pet foods, & pet supplies ,574 15, All other merchandise ,550 14, All other merchandise 261 1,449,341 86, Nonmerchandise receipts, excluding sales & other taxes 221 1,070,787 21, Source: Economic Census, Merchandise Line Sales, Retail Trade Subject Series,

37 Total Household Expenditure at Grocery Stores Estimating Non-food Expenditures at Retail Food Stores Artesia CCD Estimated Household Expenditures on Retail Food (2002) 18,050,056 Sales of food for off premisis consumption as percent of Grocery Store Sales Total Household Expenditures (food and non-food) in Grocery Stores 25,510, Economic Census, Merchandise Line Sales, Retail Trade Subject Series, New Mexico,

38 Sales to Other Businesses Retail Trade: Class of Customer by Kind of Business, U.S.: NAICS code Description % Sls to general public % Sls to other* % Sls to builders/ contractors % Sls to retailers/ wholesalers 4451 Grocery stores 99.2% * includes sales to the general public, builder and contractors, retailers and wholesalers for resale, institutional, industrial, commercial, and farm users; and government) Source: Economic Census, Retail Trade: Miscellaneous Subjects: Class of Customer by Kind of Business:

39 Total Estimated Expenditures (general public and businesses) to Grocery Stores by Area 2002 Artesia CCD Estimated Sales to Households $25,510,616 Sales to Others 0.8 Estimated Total Expenditures at Grocery Stores $25,716,347 39

40 Tying it all together Taxable gross receipts as percent of sales (NM Grocery Stores, 1997) 92% Multiplied by: Estimated total expenditures of the Artesia CCD at grocery stores $25,716,347 Equals: Estimated gross receipts generated by Artesia CCD for grocery stores $23,709,516 Minus: Actual Taxable Gross Receipts Generated by Artesia Grocery Stores (2002) $20,530,979 Equals: Uncaptured sales gross receipts $3,178,537 Minus: Estimated gross receipts generated by new establishment $9,574,427 Estimated sales compared to estimated expenditures (taxable gross receipts) -6,937,254 40

41 Thanks!! 41