INTRODUCING THE ESTABLISHMENT SURVEY

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Junior Elliott
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1 INTRODUCING THE ESTABLISHMENT SURVEY

2 THE ES JOURNEY 2

3 FUTURE PROOFING MODEL International trends link establishment survey data to a variety of dedicated media surveys via data fusion Source: Industry meeting July

4 GORDON PATTERSON 5 Oct July

5 THE ES JOURNEY Future proofing model BRC and PRC begin ES talks ES tender process ES tender awarded ES contract signed ES work begins Jul 13 Oct 14 Feb-Aug 15 Aug 15 Oct 15 Oct-Dec 15 5

6 THE ES JOURNEY CONTINUED Q re design workshop Sample design workshop Pilot study Pilot debrief workshop Final q re Interviewer training In field Jan 16 Mar 16 Feb-Mar 16 May 16 June 16 1 July 16 Scrutiny of 2 month data SEM development Launch (first 6 month data release) Further industry workshops Full year release Sep-Oct 16 Sep-Oct 16 Mar 17 May-July 17 Sep 17 Today 6

7 THE ES REPRESENTATIVE OF THE SA POPULATION DEMOGRAPHIC / GEOGRAPHIC / LIFESTYLE / PRODUCTS & MULTI-MEDIA LANDSCAPE CROSS PLATFORM / CROSS DEVICE MEDIA CONSUMPTION SINGLE SOURCE (IHS POPULATION DATA) HUB & DONOR NEW SEGMENTATION MODEL 7

8 HUB&DONOR = SINGLE SOURCE PAMS RAM TAMS ES BRAND 8

9 ES SAMPLE CLOSELY REFLECTS THE SA POPULATION ES (unweighted) IHS Population Black 81% Coloured 10% Indian / Asian 2% White 7% Black 78% Coloured 9% Indian / Asian 3% White 10% Source: ES July-Dec 2016 (n=12,464) Source: IHS Individual Population estimates Dec

10 WEIGHTING EFFICIENCY HOUSEHOLD 92% INDIVIDUAL 80% 10

11 ES VITAL SIGNS NATIONAL SAMPLE 12,464 sample JUL-DEC % Metro 29% Urban 30% Rural Universe: Population age million 11

12 CURRENCY VITAL SIGNS ES SAMPLE BRC RAM BRC TAMS PAMS 41% Metro 60% Metro 46% Metro 50% Metro 29% Urban 20% Urban 30% Urban 30% Urban 30% Rural 20% Rural 24% Rural 20% Rural 12

13 DEMOGRAPHIC LANDSCAPE 13

14 DEMOGRAPHIC LANDSCAPE BLACK WHITE COLOURED INDIAN 79% 9% 9% 3% 16 million HOUSEHOLDS 38.8 million ADULTS 15 YEARS+ AGE % SPOKEN LANGUAGES % % 48% Zulu English Afrikaans Xhosa Sesotho Sepedi Setswana Tsonga Swati Venda Ndebele

15 DEMOGRAPHIC LANDSCAPE MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME % AVERAGE: R9, R0 - R R 46 R R9 999 R R R R R R R Below Matric Matric Tertiary CHILDREN UNDER 15 YEARS LIVING AT HOME % Working full-time Working part-time Not working % CHILDREN 48% WORKING 52% NOT WORKING Student Retired Home executive % NONE 15

16 GEOGRAPHIC LANDSCAPE 16

17 GEOGRAPHIC LANDSCAPE PROVINCE % AND POPULATION FIGURES 41% (15.9m) 26% (10.2m) 7% (2.6m) LP 9% (3.6m) 29% (11.1m) 5% (2.0m) 2% (0.8m) NC NW GP FS MP KZN 8% (3.0m) 19% (7.2m) 30% (11.8m) 12% (4.6m) WC EC 12% (4.6m) 17

18 PRODUCTS AND LIFESTYLES 18

19 LIFESTYLES Past week destinations % Black 73 Coloured Indian/Asian 4 8 White 15 46% Shopping mall 19

20 LIFESTYLES Past week destinations % Black 60 Coloured Indian/Asian 6 5 White 29 10% Restaurant 20

21 LIFESTYLES Past week destinations % Black 85 Coloured Indian/Asian 1 1 White 12 2% Stadium 21

22 PRODUCT % Black 74 Coloured Indian/Asian 7 4 White 15 37% Home theatre system in home 22

23 PRODUCT % Black 72 Coloured 11 Indian/Asian 4 White 14 68% Microwave oven in home 23

24 PRODUCT % Black 46 Coloured Indian/Asian 7 13 White 34 26% Motor car in home 24

25 MEDIA LANDSCAPE 25

26 QUESTIONNAIRE DESIGNED BY INDUSTRY THOUGHT LEADERS AND USES A TOP-DOWN STRUCTURE Questionnaire introduction Media sections Profiling Literacy test Multi-media screener Equipment in home Common questions for all media Number of days used in average week Time spent per weekday/sat/sun Devices/platforms Media-specific questions On the go Demographics Geographics Lifestyles Products SEM variables 26

27 P4WEEK MEDIA LANDSCAPE DEVICE % TV set Cellphone Paper/ printed copy Radio set/hi-fi Car/taxi/ bus radio Desktop/ laptop Tablet Note: Devices used in past month amongst past month users of each medium 27

28 MEDIA LANDSCAPE REACH % Yesterday In the last week In the last month In the last 3 months In the last 6 months In the last 12 months TV Radio Internet Newspapers Magazines Cinema 28

29 SNAPSHOTS BY MEDIA TYPE 29

30 LISTENING Past 7 days 30

31 LISTENING REACH 70% of the population in a day 83% of the population in a week 87% of the population in a month 31

32 P7D RADIO LISTENERS DEMOGRAPHIC LANDSCAPE BLACK WHITE COLOURED INDIAN 79% 10% 8% 3% 32.3 million ADULTS 15 YEARS+ AGE % HOME LANGUAGE % % 50% Zulu Xhosa Afrikaans English Sesotho Sepedi Setswana Tsonga Venda Swati Ndebele

33 P7D RADIO LISTENERS DEMOGRAPHIC LANDSCAPE MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME % AVERAGE: R10, R0 - R R 45 R R9 999 R R R R R R R Below Matric Matric Tertiary CHILDREN UNDER 15 YEARS LIVING AT HOME % Working full-time Working part-time Not working % CHILDREN 50% WORKING 50% NOT WORKING Student Retired Home executive % NONE 33

34 P7D RADIO LISTENERS GEOGRAPHIC LANDSCAPE PROVINCE % AND POPULATION FIGURES 40% METRO 25% (8.1m) 7% (2.1m) LP 10% (3.2m) 29% URBAN 6% (1.8m) 2% (0.7m) NC NW GP FS MP KZN 8% (2.6m) 20% (6.4m) 31% RURAL 11% (3.6m) WC EC 11% (3.7m) 34

35 LISTENING DEVICE Radio 85% Car/taxi/bus 59% Cellphone 38% TV set 24% Laptop/ desktop 3% 35

36 LISTENING LOCATION Home 92% Car/taxi/bus 33% Work 11% University/college 1% 36

37 VIEWING Past 7 days 37

38 VIEWING REACH 90% of the population in a day 93% of the population in a week 95% of the population in a month 38

39 P7D TV VIEWERS DEMOGRAPHIC LANDSCAPE BLACK WHITE COLOURED INDIAN 79% 10% 9% 3% 36.2 million ADULTS 15 YEARS+ AGE % HOME LANGUAGE % % 48% Zulu Xhosa Afrikaans English Sesotho Sepedi Setswana Tsonga Swati Venda Ndebele

40 P7D TV VIEWERS DEMOGRAPHIC LANDSCAPE MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME % AVERAGE: R10, R0 - R R 44 R R9 999 R R R R R R R Below Matric Matric Tertiary CHILDREN UNDER 15 YEARS LIVING AT HOME % Working full-time Working part-time Not working % CHILDREN 49% WORKING 51% NOT WORKING Student Retired Home executive % NONE 40

41 P7D TV VIEWERS GEOGRAPHIC LANDSCAPE PROVINCE % AND POPULATION FIGURES 42% METRO 27% (9.7m) 7% (2.4m) LP 9% (3.4m) 29% URBAN 5% (1.8m) 2% (0.8m) NC NW GP FS MP KZN 8% (2.8m) 19% (6.8m) 29% RURAL 12% (4.4m) WC EC 11% (4.0m) 41

42 VIEWING DEVICE TV set 97% Smartphone 10% Laptop/ desktop 2% Tablet 1% Games console 1% 42

43 VIEWING LOCATION Home 97% Shopping centre/shop/bank 7% Bar/shebeen/pub/café 6% Work 5% Restaurant/coffee shop 4% Car/taxi/bus 3% School/university/college 1% 43

44 READING Past 7 days 44

45 ADVERTISE TO PEOPLE WHO CAN AFFORD YOUR PRODUCTS AREA TYPE: NO. HHS: AVG MHI: RURAL 4.5m R4,504 URBAN 4.6m R9,666 METRO 6.9m R13,578 POPULATION VS MONEY % People Money People Money People Money 12 RURAL URBAN METRO 45

46 AVERAGE HOUSEHOLD INCOME R R R R R R R % R % +46% R R R National Average Newspaper P7D readers Internet P7D users Magazine P7D readers 46

47 P7D NEWSPAPER READERS DEMOGRAPHIC LANDSCAPE BLACK WHITE COLOURED INDIAN 70% 14% 12% 4% 10.5 million ADULTS 15 YEARS+ AGE % % 54% LANGUAGES READ AND UNDERSTAND % English Afrikaans Zulu Sesotho Xhosa Setswana Sepedi Tsonga Swati Ndebele Venda

48 P7D NEWSPAPER READERS DEMOGRAPHIC LANDSCAPE MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME % AVERAGE: R12, R0 - R R R9 999 R 27 R R R R R R R Below Matric Matric Tertiary MARITAL STATUS 57% WORKING 43% NOT WORKING Working full-time Working part-time Not working Student Retired Home executive % SINGLE/DIV/WID 39% MARRIED 1% REFUSED 48

49 P7D NEWSPAPER READERS GEOGRAPHIC LANDSCAPE PROVINCE % AND POPULATION FIGURES 53% METRO 33% (3.5m) 7% (0.7m) LP 6% (0.6m) 31% URBAN 5% (0.5m) 2% (0.2m) NC NW GP FS MP KZN 7% (0.7m) 17% (1.8m) 16% RURAL 17% (1.8m) WC EC 7% (0.7m) 49

50 NEWSPAPER PLATFORM USAGE Multiple platforms % Paper/ printed copy Cellphone Desktop/ laptop Tablet

51 NEWSPAPER PLATFORM OVERLAP PAST 7 DAY READERS (Universe 11.5m) ONLINE 3.1m 27% PAPER 10.4m 90% ONLINE ONLY 1.2m 10% BOTH 2m 17% PAPER ONLY 8.4m 73% Average Age

52 P7D MAGAZINE READERS DEMOGRAPHIC LANDSCAPE BLACK WHITE COLOURED INDIAN 69% 18% 10% 3% 4.2 million ADULTS 15 YEARS+ AGE % % 41% LANGUAGES READ AND UNDERSTAND % English Afrikaans Zulu Xhosa Sepedi Sesotho Setswana Tsonga Swati Ndebele Venda

53 P7D MAGAZINE READERS DEMOGRAPHIC LANDSCAPE MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME % AVERAGE: R14, R0 - R R R9 999 R R R R R R R R Below Matric Matric Tertiary MARITAL STATUS 55% WORKING 45% NOT WORKING Working full-time Working part-time Not working Student Retired Home executive % SINGLE/DIV/WID 37% MARRIED 1% REFUSED 53

54 P7D MAGAZINE READERS GEOGRAPHIC LANDSCAPE PROVINCE % AND POPULATION FIGURES 56% METRO 35% (1.5m) 4% (0.2m) LP 6% (0.2m) 30% URBAN 4% (0.2m) 2% (0.09m) NC NW GP FS MP KZN 8% (0.3m) 15% (0.6m) 14% RURAL 18% (0.8m) WC EC 8% (0.4m) 54

55 MAGAZINE PLATFORM USAGE Multiple platforms % Paper/ printed copy Cellphone Desktop/ laptop Tablet

56 MAGAZINE PLATFORM OVERLAP PAST MONTH READERS (Universe 6.9m) ONLINE 2.1m 31% PAPER 6.2m 90% ONLINE ONLY 700k 10% BOTH 1.3m 19% PAPER ONLY 4.9m 71% Average Age

57 DIGITAL Past 7 days 57

58 P7D INTERNET USERS DEMOGRAPHIC LANDSCAPE BLACK WHITE COLOURED INDIAN 75% 14% 8% 3% 18.2 million ADULTS 15 YEARS+ AGE % % 51% LANGUAGES READ AND UNDERSTAND % English Zulu Afrikaans Xhosa Sesotho Sepedi Setswana Tsonga Swati Ndebele Venda

59 P7D INTERNET USERS DEMOGRAPHIC LANDSCAPE MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME % AVERAGE: R13, R0 - R R R9 999 R 27 R R R R R R R Below Matric Matric Tertiary MARITAL STATUS 55% WORKING 45% NOT WORKING Working full-time Working part-time Not working Student Retired Home executive % SINGLE/DIV/WID 30% MARRIED 59

60 P7D INTERNET USERS GEOGRAPHIC LANDSCAPE PROVINCE % AND POPULATION FIGURES 51% METRO 33% (6.1m) 5% (1.0m) LP 7% (1.3m) 28% URBAN 5% (0.9m) 1% (0.3m) NC NW GP FS MP KZN 7% (1.3m) 19% (3.5m) 21% RURAL 13% (2.3m) WC EC 9% (1.6m) 60

61 DIGITAL DEVICE % Cellphone Desktop/ laptop Tablet Note: Device used to access internet in past 7 days 61

62 DIGITAL ACTIVITY BY DEVICE Whatsapp/IM/chat 92 % Cellphone Desktop/ laptop Tablet Social media Search for things Use/download apps Download music/podcasts Play games Banking Check the weather Note: Activities by device used to access internet in past 7 days 62

63 ONLINE ACCESS BY DEVICE PAST MONTH USERS (Universe 20m) COMPUTER 3.6M 18% CELL PHONE 19.4M 97% COMPUTER ONLY 386K 2% COMPUTER AND CELL PHONE 2.3M 12% ALL 3 832K 4% CELL PHONE ONLY 15.4M 77% TABLET 1.8M 9% TABLET ONLY 138K 1% 63

64 Banking Search Check the weather Use or download apps Download music or podcasts Play games Social media Whatsapp/ instant chat 60% 74% 75% 83% 86% 87% 88% 91% 96% 40% 26% 25% 17% 14% 13% 12% 9% 4% ONLINE ACTIVITY MOBILE VS COMPUTER 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Series1 Mobile Series2 Computer 64

65 INTERNET FREQUENCY % Several times a day 66 Once a day 12 Several times a week 14 Once a week 3 Several times a month 1 Average no. of times per month

66 CINEMA Past month 66

67 PAST MONTH CINEMA GOERS DEMOGRAPHIC LANDSCAPE BLACK WHITE COLOURED INDIAN 51% 35% 7% 7% 1.1 million ADULTS 15 YEARS+ AGE % SPOKEN LANGUAGES % % 53% English Afrikaans Zulu Sepedi Sesotho Setswana Xhosa Tsonga Swati Venda Ndebele

68 PAST MONTH CINEMA GOERS DEMOGRAPHIC LANDSCAPE MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD INCOME % AVERAGE: R25, R R0 - R4 999 R R9 999 R R R R R R Below Matric Matric Tertiary R % WORKING 34% NOT WORKING Working full-time Working part-time Student Not working Home executive Retired CHILDREN UNDER 15 YEARS LIVING AT HOME % 35% CHILDREN 65% NONE 68

69 PAST MONTH CINEMA GOERS GEOGRAPHIC LANDSCAPE PROVINCE % AND POPULATION FIGURES 68% METRO 48% (521k) 3% (32k) LP 7% (71k) 28% URBAN 3% (30k) 1% (8k) NC NW GP FS MP KZN 6% (66k) 16% (178k) 4% RURAL 10% (112k) WC EC 6% (67k) 69

70 CINEMA FREQUENCY % Once a week times a month 7 Once a month 14 Once every 3 months 23 Once every 6 months 25 Once every 12 months 18 Less than once every 12 months 14 Average no. of visits per year

71 ON THE GO Past 7 days 71

72 PAST WEEK DESTINATIONS Friend's house 55 The bank/atm 22 Spaza shop 54 School/college 13 Shopping mall 46 A restaurant 10 Store or shop 43 Bar/shebeen/tavern 4 Church/place of worship 43 Hospital/clinic 3 Work 41 Cinema 2 Family member's house 35 Stadium 2 Neighbour's house 34 Other/Did not leave home 2 72

73 MODES OF TRANSPORT % Walked 80 Taxi or bus 56 Car 28 Train 1 Bicycle or motorbike 1 Did not leave home 1 Note: Modes of transport to past week destinations 73

74 INTRODUCING A NEW SOCIO-ECONOMIC SEGMENTATION SYSTEM: SEM 74

75 THE SEM CONCEPTUAL STARTING POINT A measure that depicts how you live, not necessarily what you have 75

76 NEEDS TO REFLECT SA SOCIETY Perfectly equal society 0 1 Perfectly unequal society 76

77 THE SEMS ARE Relevant and differentiating Stable Not overly dependent on durables Easy to use With the flexibility to be applied to any media and marketing study in South Africa 77

78 THE SEM DEVELOPMENT PROCESS Correspon- Develop Continuum household dence scoring reflective of variables analysis system SA 78

79 Dimension 2 (9.4% variance explained) FIRST ITERATION HAD 131 VARIABLES 0,700 0,600 No mains No flooring Thatch/plastic roof No water inside 0,500 0,400 0,300 Swimming pool Wifi/fibre 4 or 5 star hotels Generator 0,200 0,100 0,000-0,800-0,600-0,400-0,200 0,000 0,200 0,400 0,600 0,800 1,000 1,200 1,400-0,100-0,200-0,300 Dimension 1 (61.3% variance explained) Desired horseshoe shape Good inertia Total inertia

80 Dimension 2 (5.7% variance explained) REMOVAL OF VARIABLES RESULTED IN AN EVEN STRONGER MEASURE Low socio-economic living No flooring No police station No post office 0,400 0,300 0,200 High socio-economic living Vacuum cleaner Home security service Free standing freezer 0,100 0,000-0,800-0,600-0,400-0,200 0,000 0,200 0,400 0,600 0,800 1,000 1,200-0,100-0,200-0,300 Dimension 1 (78.1% variance explained) x x x Removal of: Spurious variables Non-differentiating durables Overlapping variables at top end Total inertia

81 THE 14 SEM VARIABLES Final variables: Post Office nearby Police station nearby Built-in kitchen sink Home security service Motor car Deep freezer which is free standing Microwave oven Floor polisher or vacuum cleaner Washing machine Floor material Water source Type of toilet Roof material Number of sleeping rooms Focus on structural items Low reliance on durables No reliance on technology items Short and easy to use 81

82 THE ES SEMs VS THE ES LSMs SEM: % SEM 1 SEM 2 SEM 3 SEM 4 SEM 5 SEM 6 SEM 7 SEM 8 SEM 9 SEM 10 LSM: % LSM 1 LSM 2 LSM 3 LSM 4 LSM 5 LSM 6 LSM 7 LSM 8 LSM 9 LSM 10 82

83 THE SEM CONTINUUM % SEM 1 Score 0-10 SEM 2 Score SEM 3 Score SEM 4 Score SEM 5 Score SEM 6 Score SEM 7 Score SEM 8 Score SEM 9 Score SEM 10 Score Low socio-economic living High socio-economic living Currently divided into ten groups, but users have the flexibility to spread the scores in any way they wish For example: 0-40; 41-95;

84 SEM TARGETING EXAMPLE The more precisely one defines the TM, the less the wastage and the better the ROI. Suppose you wanted to advertise petrol, motor spares or used cars TOTAL SEM1 SEM2 SEM3 SEM4 SEM5 SEM6 SEM7 SEM8 SEM9 SEM10 Motor car in home %Col Index LSM 7-10 miss out on the top end of SEM 6. So you simply code where the index is 100 or greater (penetration above national average of 26%). TARGET MARKET IS SEM>=57 84

85 SEM INPUT VARIABLES STRUCTURAL Low incidence (%) High incidence (%) Finished/ sealed floor SEM Sleeping rooms Home security service Note: HH weights 85

86 SEM INPUT VARIABLES DURABLES Low incidence (%) High incidence (%) SEM Washing machine Motor car Microwave Note: HH weights 86

87 SEM INPUT VARIABLES INFRASTRUCTURE AND BASIC AMENITIES High incidence (%) Low incidence (%) NO Police Station nearby NO Post Office nearby NO Built-in kitchen sink NO Flush toilet inside the house SEM Note: HH weights 87

88 DEMOGRAPHIC LANDSCAPE BY SEM SEM Metro Urban Rural Note: Individual weights 88

89 MONTHLY HH INCOME BY SEM R R R R R9 253 R3 273 R3 763 R4 684 R5 991 R7 200 SEM 1 SEM 2 SEM 3 SEM 4 SEM 5 SEM 6 SEM 7 SEM 8 SEM 9 SEM 10 89

90 EQUIPMENT IN HOME BY SEM % Avg. no. of equipment items in home: SEM SEM SEM SEM SEM SEM SEM SEM SEM SEM Key equipment penetration: 98 TV set Smartphone 56 Desktop/ laptop Tablet 15 Wifi/fibre

91 MEDIA CONSUMPTION BY SEM % SEM 1 SEM 2 SEM 3 SEM 4 SEM 5 SEM 6 SEM 7 SEM 8 SEM 9 SEM 10 Past 12 month usage:

92 SEM INTEGRATION PAMS SEMs available in October ES SEMs in November release RAM TAMS SEMs available in September 92

93 Thank you 93

THE ESTABLISHMENT SURVEY SEP 2017 FULL YEAR RELEASE

THE ESTABLISHMENT SURVEY SEP 2017 FULL YEAR RELEASE THE ES JOURNEY 2 THE ES JOURNEY Future proofing model BRC and PRC begin ES talks ES tender process ES tender awarded ES contract signed ES work begins