Agenda. Research findings: From Not Enough Jobs to Not Enough Workers Business implications Q&A

Transcription

1

2 Agenda Research findings: From Not Enough Jobs to Not Enough Workers Business implications Q&A Gad Levanon Director of Macroeconomic Research The Conference Board Mark B. Ward Vice President and General Manager EdAssist 2 #SAWlive

3 What does the coming labor shortage from retiring baby boomers mean for your company? 3 #SAWlive

4 Key Findings In mature economies, working-age population is declining Many mature economies are likely to experience both sluggish economic growth and tight labor markets in next 15 years Most thought leaders do not sufficiently emphasize what a significant effect the impending workforce crunch could have on corporate profits 4 #SAWlive

5 Key Findings While the overall trend for mature economies is to experience growing tightness in their labor markets, labor shortages will vary by country and occupation The Conference Board created index to measure labor shortages risk for 464 occupations and 266 industries in the U.S. 5 #SAWlive

6 Aging Baby Boomer Generation Greatest age 84+ 5M Silent age M 32% of U.S. Population Boomers age M Xers age M Millenials age M Source: Pew Research, Five Generation, February, #SAWlive

7 The growth rate of the U.S. population aged 18 to 64 is rapidly decelerating and will remain very low through 2030 Source: The Census Bureau 7 #SAWlive

8 The U.S. is rapidly approaching its natural rate of unemployment. Expected to be there within a year Phase 1 Note: Shaded areas represent recessions. Sources: Congressional Budget Office, The Conference Board 8 #SAWlive

9 Future occupational labor shortage index for selected major occupations Phase 1 Source: The Conference Board 9 #SAWlive

10 Most occupations with high risk of labor shortages are projected to either experience fast employment growth or few new entrants to replace those who leave Phase 1 10 #SAWlive

11 Most health related occupations are projected to experience fast employment growth 11 #SAWlive

12 In some STEM-heavy industries, employment is expected to grow slowly or not at all Phase 1 STEM-heavy industries are highlighted in blue. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 12 #SAWlive

13 Increased immigration can be a solution to future labor shortages in the U.S. However, the percentage of immigrants or naturalized citizens varies significantly by occupation Phase 1 Source: American Community Survey 13 #SAWlive

14 Current labor market tightness varies significantly across the U.S. Some states are already experiencing tight labor markets, while others still have unemployment rates higher than the natural rate Phase 1 14 #SAWlive

15 We are experiencing a unique decline in working-age population in mature economies Phase 1 Source: The Conference Board, OAEC 15 #SAWlive

16 When will the natural rate of unemployment be reached? Phase 1 Source: The Conference Board 16 #SAWlive

17 Late 1990s: strong growth but a decline in corporate profits because of a tight labor market Phase 1 Note: Shaded areas represent recessions. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis 17 #SAWlive

18 Major Implications for Businesses 1. Harder to find qualified workers 2. Lost knowledge due to retirement 3. Lower retention rates 4. Faster compensation growth 5. Squeeze on corporate profits as labor costs and quits rise 6. Pressure to increase hours worked and productivity from existing workers 7. Increase recruitment intensity 8. Training and internal worker mobility 9. Provide incentives for older workers to stay in the work force 10. Intensify the movement of operations to less costly areas 11. Pass the cost to the consumers 12. Production will grow more slowly due to the labor supply constraints 18 #SAWlive

19 How can Talent Management and Learning teams help? 1. Harder to find qualified workers 2. Lost knowledge due to retirement 3. Lower retention rates 4. Faster compensation growth 5. Squeeze on corporate profits as labor costs and quits rise 6. Pressure to increase hours worked and productivity from existing workers 7. Increase recruitment intensity 8. Training and internal worker mobility 9. Provide incentives for older workers to stay in the work force 10. Intensify the movement of operations to less costly areas 11. Pass the cost to the consumers 12. Production will grow more slowly due to the labor supply constraints 19 #SAWlive

20 Baby Boomer Retirement Knowledge Transfer Mentor Programs Modify and market benefits to appeal to the changing needs of baby boomers Flex tuition assistance program (focused on various interests vs. specific skills) 20 #SAWlive

21 Qualified Workers, Training and Mobility Proactively identify high-index labor shortages and future skills gaps Educate senior management and bring a solution to the table today Internal Learning Publicize need for this skill internally and encourage employees to think about this as an area of career development Develop internal training in those areas

22 Tuition Assistance Customize and Incentivize your tuition assistance program: Higher tuition caps for degrees in skills shortage areas Explore Certifications: Faster education with power to negotiate discounts Arm your Internal Career Development & Academic Advisors: Communicate skills gaps to your front-line team directly communicating with employees Target Graduates: Focus your attention of those graduating in the next 6-12 month with in-demand skills. Celebrate their accomplishment! Be patient: Remember the time lag for degrees and do what you can to help employees finish degrees faster Partner with schools: Reputable education institutions can deliver the in-demand skills you need. Consider developing cohort program or customized learning. Measure impact: Track those employees completing internal training and educational programs in skills-shortage areas and measure their retention in the future Look into the future: In 2014, we identified these areas as future skills shortages for XYZ company. Here are the steps we took to address that and here are the successes we have measured to date

23 Questions & Answers Gad Levanon Director of Macroeconomic Research The Conference Board Mark B. Ward Vice President and General Manager EdAssist 23 #SAWlive

24 Thank You JOIN US in Pasadena Solutions at Work LIVE Annual Conference April 14-17, days of learning and networking CONTACT EdAssist (877) sales@edassist.com SUBSCRIBE to hear about upcoming Solutions at Work webinars & LIVE events brighthorizons.com/newsletter Solutions at Work Website Blog YouTube Twitter LinkedIn 24 #SAWlive