Employment and Unemployment
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1 Employment and Unemployment What kind of job market will you enter when you graduate? The class of 2014 had a tough time: In July 2014, 10 million Americans wanted a job but couldn t find one and 8 more had given up looking for a full-time job and taken a part-time job
2 Employment and Unemployment Why Unemployment Is a Problem Lost incomes and production Lost human capital
3 Where Do the Numbers Come from? Current Population Survey The U.S. Census Bureau conducts a monthly population survey to determine the status of the U.S. labor force Population groups: The working-age population the number of people aged 16 years and older who are not in jail, hospital, or some other institution People under 16 years of age
4 Labor Force The working-age population is divided into two groups: People in the labor force People not in the labor force Labor force = employed workers + unemployed workers
5 Unemployment Status Definition To be counted as unemployed, a person must be in one of the following three categories: Without work but has made specific efforts to find a job within the previous four weeks Waiting to be called back to a job from which he or she has been laid off Waiting to start a new job within 30 days
6 Categories of Labor Force In June 2014: Population: 318 million Working-age population: 248 million Labor force: 156 million Employed: million Unemployed: 9.7 million
7 Labor Market Indicators The unemployment rate The employment-to-population ratio The labor force participation rate
8 The Unemployment Rate The percentage of the labor force that is unemployed:!! = number!of!people!unemployed! number!of!people!in!the!labor!force!!!100!!!"#$!" = 9.7!million!!100 = 6.2%! 156!million
9 The Unemployment Rate
10 Employment-to-Population Ratio Percentage of working-age population with jobs:!"#! = people!employed! working!age!population!!!100!!"#!"#$!" = 146.3!!million!!100 = 59%! 248!million
11 Labor Force Participation Rate Percentage of the working-age population who are in labor force:!"!"! = labor!force! working!age!population!!!100!!"!"!"#$!" = 156!!million!!100 = 62.9%! 248!million
12 Labor Market Indicators
13 Types of Unemployment Frictional unemployment Structural unemployment Cyclical unemployment
14 Frictional Unemployment Unemployment that arises from normal labor market turnover The creation and destruction of jobs requires that unemployed workers search for new jobs Increases in the number of people entering and reentering the labor force and increases in unemployment benefits raise frictional unemployment Frictional unemployment is a permanent and healthy phenomenon of a growing economy
15 Structural Unemployment Unemployment created by changes in technology and foreign competition that change the skills needed to perform jobs or the locations of jobs
16 Cyclical Unemployment Cyclical unemployment is higher in recessions and lower in booms A worker who is laid off because the economy is in a recession and is then rehired when the expansion begins experiences cyclical unemployment
17 Natural Unemployment Unemployment that arises from frictions and structural change when there is no cyclical unemployment Natural unemployment = frictional + structural unemployment The natural unemployment rate is natural unemployment as a percentage of the labor force
18 Unemployment and Full Employment Full employment is defined as the situation in which the unemployment rate equals the natural unemployment rate When the economy is at full employment, there is no cyclical unemployment
19 Unemployment and Full Employment The natural unemployment rate changes over time and is influenced by many factors such as: The age distribution of the population The scale of structural change The real wage rate Unemployment benefits
20 Full Employment and Potential GDP Potential GDP is the quantity of real GDP produced at full employment Potential GDP corresponds to the capacity of the economy to produce output on a sustained basis Real GDP minus potential GDP is the output gap Over the business cycle, the output gap fluctuates and the unemployment rate fluctuates around the natural unemployment rate
21 Full Employment and Potential GDP
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