Capitalizing on the Impending CRISIS

Transcription

1 presents Capitalizing on the Impending CRISIS

2 Charlie Herman

3 Economic Trends Mixed Signs of Recovery The I-Think-I-Can Job Market Stock Market Economy... Spoiled Boomers Moving into High Consumption Years.

4 Demographic Trends 15.1% Fewer People in Generation X

5 The Workforce Age Wave 2005 Number of People Available to Work (relative comparison) 6E+06 5E+06 5E+06 4E+06 4E+06 3E+06 3E+06 Percent Employed 70 14% Peak Age of Baby Boomers 65 24% 60 30% Fewer Workers Age Age of Workforce (Profile of Baby Boomers) Percent Percent Employed Employed by Age By Age 70% Not Employed Year People Were Born Data from Impending Crisis Herman, Olivo and Gioia (2003) Source: BLS Research 2001

6 The Workforce Age Wave 2010 Number of People Available to Work (relative comparison) 6E+06 5E+06 5E+06 4E+06 4E+06 3E+06 3E+06 Percent Employed Fewer Workers Over Age % Peak Age of Baby Boomers 70 14% 65 24% 60 49% Age of Workforce (Profile of Baby Boomers) Fewer Workers Age % 15 Year People Were Born Graph from Impending Crisis Herman, Olivo and Gioia (2003). Source: BLS Research 2001

7 The Workforce Age Wave 2015 Number of People Available to Work (relative comparison) 6E+06 5E+06 5E+06 4E+06 4E+06 3E+06 3E+06 Percent Employed Fewer Workers Over Age % Peak Age of Baby Boomers Fewer 55 Workers Age % 14% 24% 49% 70% Age of Workforce Percent Age of Workforce (Profile (Profile Baby of Baby Boomers) Boomers) Employed Year People Were Percent Born Employed Graph from Impending Crisis Herman, Olivo and Gioia (2003) Source: BLS Research 2001

8 Demographics (cont d) Older Workers will want to Keep Working The Millennials will Challenge Employers as No Other Generation.

9 Pockets of Crisis Geography Occupation Industry

10 Impending Crisis: Skilled Labor Shortage 165,000,000 10,033,000 More Jobs than People (E) 10.0% 9.0% People 155,000, ,000, ,000, ,000, ,000, ,000, % (A) (B) 4,731,000 More Jobs than People 7.2% 5.6% 5.6% (D) 4.0% (C) 7,637,000 More People than Jobs 1,516,000 More People than Jobs 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% Unemployment Rate 95,000, Jobs Available 99,303, ,680, ,324, ,959, ,594, ,754,000 Civilian Labor Force 106,940, ,461, ,840, ,304, ,863, ,721,000 Unemployment 7.1% 7.2% 5.6% 5.6% 4.0%? 0.0% Source: BLS Research 2001

11 Other Complicating Factors

12 Dearth of Leadership Leadership by Anointment Lack of Training for Supervisors, Managers, Execs The Peter Principle Lives Many Young People Don t Want to Lead.

13 The Competency Deficit Public schools are not preparing students for work. Myth: All students should go to college. College costs are rising faster than COL. Vocational schools, community colleges, and workforce centers have a large part to play.

14 Changing Worker Attitudes Warm Chair Attrition Corporate Cocooning Life/Work Balance Important Stay Marketable Corporate Loyalty is Dead!

15 Problem Turnover is Expensive! Workforce Stability =>Profitability

16 Solution: Change the Way You Function Higher Attention to Workforce Stability Right People on the Bus: Selection 4 Employer of Choice Positioning Attention to Onboarding Train Supervisors, Managers, Execs to Keep Your Good People. (Your Workforce Center can help.)

17 Short Term Strategies Encourage Enlightened Leadership Engage in Strategic Workforce Planning Offer Education & Training Recognize the New Community.

18 Getting Started

19 The Role of Workforce Preparation in Economic Development

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21 Seize the Future!