US Gross Domestic Product

Transcription

1 US Gross Domestic Product 8 GDP (left axis) GDP Price Index (right axis) 3.0 GDP Quarterly % Chg., Annual Rate Year % Chg. Forecast: 5.5% Consensus: 5.5% Actual: 5.7% GDP Price Index Forecast: 1.1% Consensus: 1.1% Actual: 1.1% -2 Q3-96 Q1-97 Q3-97 Q1-98 Q3-98 Q1-99 Q3-99 GDP was revised higher in Q3, a bit ahead of expectations. The upward revision was concentrated in consumer spending, especially for services, and inventory investment. Downward revisions were mainly in business fixed investment, particularly aircraft deliveries. These data do little to change the overall pattern of economic activity in Q3: strong domestic demand, a widening trade gap, and a rebound in inventory investments. This report, combined with other data that has been released suggest Q4 GDP growth of 4% to 4-1/2% with still robust consumer spending, less trade deterioration and less inventory investment and capital spending. % Change at Annual Rate (unless noted as $) Quarterly Averages Annual Averages Q3-99 Q3-99 Q3-99 Five Ten Final Prelim.Advance Q2-99 Q1-99 Q4-98 Q Year Year Real GDP Both GDP and consumer spending steadily revised higher. Consumption Business Fixed Investment Residential Investment Inventory Investment ($ Ch Steady upward adjustment. Net Exports ($ Change) Exports Imports Government Purchases Addendum: Real Final Sales Price Index Inflation is very low and relatively steady. Steven A. Wood, (415) Hai T. Hoang, (415) This report is for information purposes only, is not to be construed as advice or a recommendation to invest assets, and is based on information available to the public from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation is made that it is accurate or complete, and no information herein should be relied upon as such. Opinions and projections found in this report reflect our opinion as of the report date and are subject to change without notice. Banc of America Securities LLC is a subsidiary of Bank of America Corporation and is a member of NYSE, NASD and SIPC. 0.5 December 22, 1999 Economic Research

2 1996 $s GDP % Chg. GDP % Consumer Spending % Durable Goods % Nondurable Goods % Services % Gross Domestic Private Invesment % Fixed Investment % Nonresidential Investment % Structures % Equipment % Residential Investment % Inventory Investment % Net Exports #N/A Exports % Imports % Government Purchases % Federal Government % National Defense % Nondefense % State and Local Government % Final Sales % Final Domestic Demand %

3 1996 $s Consumption % Chg. Consumer Spending % Durable Goods % Motor Vehicles & Parts % Furniture & Appliances % Other Durable Goods % Nondurable Goods % Food & Beverages % Clothing % Gasoline % Fuel Oil & Coal % Other Nondurable Goods % Services % Housing % Household Operations % Electricity & Gas % Other Household Operations % Transportation % Medical Care % Other Services %

4 1996 $s Investment % Chg. Gross Domestic Private Investment % Fixed Investment % Nonresidential % Structures % Nonresidential Buildings % Utilities % Mining Exploration % Other Structures % Producers' Durable Equipment % Information Processing % Industrial Equipment % Transportation Equipment % Other Equipment % Residential % Structures % Producers' Durable Equipment % Inventory Investment % Farm #N/A Nonfarm %

5 1996 $s Exports, Imports % Chg. Net Exports of Goods & Services Exports % Goods % Foods, feeds, & beverages % Industrial supplies & materials % Capital goods except automotives % Automotive vehicles, engines & pa % Consumer goods except automoti % Other goods % Services % Imports % Goods % Foods, feeds, & beverages % Industrial supplies & materials exc % Petroleum & products % Capital goods except automotives % Automotive vehicles, engines & pa % Consumer goods except automoti % Other goods % Services %

6 1996 $s Government % Chg. Government Purchases % Federal % National Defense % Consumption expenditures % Gross investment % Nondefense % Consumption expenditures % Gross investment % State and Local % Consumption expenditures % Gross investment %

7 $s Rec., Exp. % Chg. RECEIPTS % Personal tax % Corporate profits tax % Indirect business tax % Contibutions for social insurance % EXPENDITURES % Consumption expenditures % Transfer payments % Net interest paid %

8 Leakages between Total and Personal Income, 1998 Billions Transfers from of Concept Leakage into Savings Leakage into Taxes Government Dollars Gross Domestic Product 8,760.0 less Depreciation -1,066.9 equals Net Domestic Product 7,693.1 less Indirect Business Taxes plus Minor items equals Domestic Income 7,046.5 less Retained earnings less Contributions for social insurance less Corporate profits tax liability plus Transfer payments plus Net Interest plus Minor items equals Personal Income 7,358.8 less Personal Income Taxes -1,072.6 equals Disposable Personal Income 6,286.2 less Personal Savings equals Personal Outlays 6,056.5 less Interest Paid less Personal Transfer Payments equals Consumption Expenditures 5,848.5

9 The Decomposition of Personal Income Billions of Dollars Share of Personal Income Personal Income 7, Wage and salary disbusements 4, Other labor income Proprietors' income Rental income Personal dividend income Personal interest income Transfer payments to persons less: Personal contributions for social insurance

10 The Decomposition of National Income Billions of Dollars Share of National Income National Income 7, Labor Income 5, Compensation of employees 5, Wages and salaries 4,189.5 Supplements Capital Income 2, Corporate profits Net interest Rental income Proprietors' income

11 Shares of National Income Percent of National Income Labor Share of National Income Profit Share of National Income Q1-60 Q1-65 Q1-70 Q1-75 Q1-80 Q1-85 Q1-90 Q1-95 Q1-00