Unemployment Rate. Percent 6
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1 12 Unemployment Rate
2 US Payroll Employment Payroll Employment 4 Payroll Employment (left) Manufacturing (left) Unemployment Rate (right) 4.4 Forecast: 25 k Consensus: 235 k Monthly Change Actual: 315 k Unemployment Rate 4. Forecast: 4.1% Consensus: 4.1% -2 Actual: 4.1% Payroll Employment jumped by 315k in December, above expectations. The gains were reasonably widespread and showed that the anecdotal reports of labor shortages have not actually limited new hiring. Job creation in Q4 averaged 274k, well above the 22k average in the Q3 and 224k average for all of During 1999, 2.7 million new job were created versus 2.9 million in The strong pace of job creation kept unemployment low at 4.1%, as expected. However, the robustness in the labor markets have yet to generate any sustained upward pressure on wages. In December, hourly earning advanced.4% but this left the year-on-year rate at 3.7%, little changed over the past year. These data show the economy ended the year on a strong footing and will do nothing to dissuade the FOMC from raising rates in early February. Thousands of Workers Monthly Change Average Monthly Change Three Six Twelve Five Ten Dec Nov Oct Sep Month Month Month Year Year Total Nonfarm Initial Report Accelerating job creation. Revision Mining Construction Manufacturing Beginning to look better. Trans. & Public Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade FIRE Other Services Government Hours and Earnings Average Level Average Hours Manufacturing Annual Rate of Change Agg. Hours Worked (% Chg).1%.3%.4% -.1% 2.2% 2.1% 1.8% 2.2% 3.2% 3.% 2.% With 2% productivity would produce 4.2% Q4 GDP. Avg. Hourly Earnings (% Chg.4%.1%.3%.5% 3.3% 3.4% 3.7% 3.8% 3.8% 3.5% 3.2% Little change in 3 years. Average Level Unemployment Rate 4.1% 4.1% 4.1% 4.2% 4.1% 4.2% 4.2% 4.3% 4.7% 5.1% 5.8% Cyclical low. Steven A. Wood, (415) Hai T. Hoang (415) January 7, 2 12/98 2/99 4/99 6/99 8/99 1/99 12/99 This report is for information purposes only, is not to be construed as advice or a recommendation to invest assets, and is based on information available to the public from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation is made that it is accurate or complete, and no information herein should be relied upon as such. Opinions and projections found in this report reflect our opinion as of the report date and are subject to change without notice. Banc of America Securities LLC is a subsidiary of Bank of America Corporation and is a member of NYSE, NASD and SIPC. 3.8 Economic Research
3 Employment Status of the Population December 1999 Not in Labor Force million Unemployed million Employed million Labor Force million
4 Labor Force Participation Rate in Labor Force Q1-6 Q1-65 Q1-7 Q1-75 Q1-8 Q1-85 Q1-9 Q1-95 Q1-
5 Labor Force Participation Rate, Men and Women in Labor Force 8 78 Men (left axis) Women (right axis) in Labor Force Q1-6 Q1-65 Q1-7 Q1-75 Q1-8 Q1-85 Q1-9 Q1-95 Q1-35
6 Employment Population Ratio Employed Q1-6 Q1-65 Q1-7 Q1-75 Q1-8 Q1-85 Q1-9 Q1-95 Q1-
7 Labor Force Attachment of the Population, 1999 Thousands of People Population 27,753 Not in Labor Force 68,385 Do not want a job now 63,818 Want a job now 4,568 Did not search for work in previous year 2,723 Searched for work in previous year 1,844 Not available to work now 644 Available to work now 1,21 Discouragement over job prospects 273 Reasons other than discouragement 927 Family responsibilities 132 In school or training 214 Ill health or disability 97 Other 485 Unemployed 5,876 Part-time for economic reasons 3,354 Slack work or business conditioons 1,967 Could only find part-time work 1,79 Part-time for noneconomic reasons 18,761 Full time 111,377 Employed 133,492
8 The Number of Unemployment Persons and The "Pool of Available Workers" 2 16 Millions of Persons Number of Unemployed Persons Pool of Available Workers Q1-7 Q1-75 Q1-8 Q1-85 Q1-9 Q1-95 Q1-
9 Reason for Unemployment, November 1982 and December November 1982 December 1999 of Total Job losers Job leavers New entrants Re-entrants
10 5 Duration of Unemployment, June 1983 and December 1999 of Total Unemployment June 1983 December 1999 Less than 5 weeks 5 to 14 weeks 15 to 26 weeks 27 weeks and over
11 12 Unemployment Rate by Educational Attainment, November 1992 and December Less than High School High School Some College College
12 3 Unemployment Rate by Age, Gender, and Race, December Aged Years Aged 2 Year and over White Males White Females Black Males Black Females
13 The Unemployment Rate, Actual and Natural Actual Unemployment Rate Natural Unemployment Rate Q1-6 Q1-65 Q1-7 Q1-75 Q1-8 Q1-85 Q1-9 Q1-95 Q1-
14 Okun's Law 12 1 Unemployment Rate Output Ratio
15 Figure 1-3 The Behavior over Time of Actual and Natural Real GDP and the Actual and Natural Rates of Unemployment 1998 Addison Wesley Longman, Inc. TM1-4
16 The Output Ratio and Unemployment Output Ratio Unemployment Rate 2 85 Q1-55 Q1-6 Q1-65 Q1-7 Q1-75 Q1-8 Q1-85 Q1-9 Q1-95 Q1-
17 The Output Ratio and Unemployment Output Ratio Unemployment Rate Q1-55 Q1-6 Q1-65 Q1-7 Q1-75 Q1-8 Q1-85 Q1-9 Q1-95 Q1-
How the Job Market Looked at the Start of the Year, Shutdown and All
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