and the 24-Hour City

Transcription

1 Transit-Orientated-Development and the 24-Hour City A/Professor François Viruly University of Cape Town 10 May 2018 WCPDF

2 Savills

3 STEEP: The Factors Disrupting the Property Market SOCIAL TECHNOLOGICAL ENVIRONMENTAL ECONOMIC POLITICAL Urbanisation Internet of Things Smart Buildings Digitization Grass- Routes Politics Middle-Class Big Data Sustainability Black Middle-Class Decline Local Gov

4 A Glimpse into the Future Key Disruptors TECHNOLOGY TRANSPORT SOCIAL

5 Accumulated in nearly a century Accumulated in 4 years Rooms in 88 Countries Rooms in 192 Countries Lausberg Old Model: Asset-intensive Source: Eigene Darstellung; nach Rachel Botsman, 2014 New Model: Information-intensive

6 PROPTECH: Big Data and Property SMART REAL ESTATE PROPTECH REAL ESTATE FINTECH FINTECH SHARED ECONOMY Proptech (created within and for the property sector) is endogenous: fintech, virtual reality, blockchains, artificial intelligence, and smart sensors

7 Previous Cycles in South Africa: Creative Destruction and Structural Changes

8 Real Economic Growth : GDP 8 y-o-y % change BER forecast Source: StatsSA

9 Total IPD Returns vs GDP Growth Capital Income GDP Interest MSCI MSCI 2017

10 Decentralised A & B Office Vacancies 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Johannesburg Decentralised Cape Town Decentralised Durban Decentralised Pretoria Decentralised SAPOA

11 SQM Cape Town Take-up Rates CBD Century City V& A Claremont Pinelands Rondebosch Bellville SAPOA

12 Mortgage Advance % change over 12 months 18 % Commercial Property Total Mortgage Advance 4 2 Residential Property SARB

13 Survey of Investment Opportunities (ULI) Ranking Top 5 Ranking Bottom 5 1 Logistics 19 Science Parks 2 Self Storage 20 Retail Parks 3 Private Res 21 Business Parks 4 5 Student Housing Retirement Housing 22 Suburban Offices 23 Out of Town Shopping ULI 2018 / Emerging Trends in Real Estate

14 Market Structures-Portfolio Investment South Africa UK Portugal Spain Canada Ireland Norway Netherlands France Germany Denmark Sweden 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Residential Office Retail Industrial Other SAPIX/IPD

15 A Glimpse into the Future Transport and Social TECHNOLOGY TRANSPORT SOCIAL

16 The Potential Benefits of TODs Do we expect too much with this tool? Ecological Safe environment Potential to promote developments Congestion reduction Successful TOD Easy access to transit limits Access to quality public space Diverse mix of use in commercial developments Cost Reduction

17 Optimising TOD Externalities and Realizing the Benefits (the externalities) Focus on the correct level of scale Avoid Distorting the Market OPTIMISING TOD EXTERNALITIES Understand Markets - Segments -Structure of Markets -Costs Influence Feasibilities Understand the Players

18 Improving and Managing the Intensity of Use of the Built Environment Connecting the Built Environment 24 Hours a Day Source: City of Cape Town

19 The Night-Time Economy The focus has been on spatial attributes and little is being said about the relationship between time and the built environment City policies at present says very little about the night time economy. It is undervalued, under researched and unrecognised Not just focused on the leisure and alcohol sector it has positive implications for employment (creative industries) and tourism In the new Economy many don t work Standard hours. Use the night time economy to be more efficient and inclusionary - education and the delivery of social services. It improves inclusivity, diversity and livability. A number of cities now have night time mayors Photos LViruly

20 The Services Wanted in Nairobi at Night; Source: C. Munbua

21 Aligning City Policies with the Night Time Economy CoCpt

22 The Property Market Delivers one way or another 24 hours a day TOWN PLANNING SERVICES BUILDING Property Rights Tenure Community Rights/ Entitlement OCCUPATION

23 Thank You