research Capitalisation & DiscountRate Report compiled by IPD

Transcription

1 research Capitalisation & DiscountRate Report compiled by IPD

2 research: Little change as economic uncertainties play out SUMMARY POINTS Valuation metrics has shown little change over the last 6 months while uncertainty around the current macroeconomic environment and its impact on the interest rate cycle plays out. Since May 2013, the yield on the 10-yr government bond has increased by 140bps whereas the average property discount rate has strengthened by 20bps thereby increasing the possibility of a re-rating of discount rates relative to the risk-free rate. What is noticeable about the latest survey results is that valuers have started adjusting exit cap rates upwards across most property segments reflecting their view on medium to long term risk. figure 1: Long term trend Valuation metrics Q Q

3 Valuation metrics has shown little change over the last 6 months while uncertainty around the current macroeconomic environment and its impact on the interest rate cycle plays out. Economic growth contracted 0.6% in the first quarter of 2014 mainly as a result of the prolonged platinum sector strike. figure 2: Dislocation between discount rate and risk free rate The strike curbed mining and manufacturing production in the first quarter of the year resulting in the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) cutting its 2014 economic growth forecast for South Africa to 2.1% from 2.6%. Weak economic growth and higher inflation pose challenges for the SARB as raising interest rates could further inhibit economic activity. Market consensus suggests the SARB is likely to keep rates pegged at the current level with hikes of 25bps likely in quarters 3 and 4 of 2014 especially if inflation remains outside the target range of 3-6%. Although the prospect of higher interest rates hasn t yet filtered through to property discount rates it has put pressure on the yields of both shorter and longer dated government bonds. Since May 2013, the yield on the 10-yr government bond has increased by 140bps whereas the average property discount rate has strengthened by 20bps (Figure 2) thereby increasing the possibility of a re-rating of discount rates relative to the risk-free rate. The average cap rate has also remained relatively unchanged over the past year despite the shift in the risk free rate. figure 3: Cap rate and long bond yield (Q2 08 Q2 14) The previous time this level of mispricing was prevalent in the market was in 2008 (Figure 3), prompting a correction in capital values. While the current perceived mispricing in the market isn t necessarily going to lead to a correction of the same magnitude as in 2008 it is something to be aware of as we enter an interest rate up-cycle and places an increased emphasis on factors that have the potential to offset value declines such as higher retention rates, longer leases and strong compound net income growth. 3

4 The largest increase in discount rates over the last 6 months was in the Low Grade segment where the average discount rate increased by almost one percent to 15.67% from 14.73% on the back of sluggish manufacturing production and low business confidence. Large increases in discount rates were also reported for prime offices in Johannesburg and Pretoria s decentralised office nodes where a potential oversupply of space in some nodes have been priced in. The highest discount rate nationally was recorded for secondary offices in East London a reflection of valuers view on secondary office markets that are expected to come under pressure given slowing public sector employment growth. figure 4: Upward adjustment of Exit Cap rate Surprisingly, CBD offices and secondary offices were the only two segments recording a strengthening in both cap and discount rates over the last six months (Figure 4). This comes despite double figure vacancy rates that have essentially been moving sideways since mid What is noticeable about the latest survey results is that valuers have started adjusting exit cap rates upwards across most property segments reflecting their view on medium to long term risk. Although CBD offices recorded lower discount and cap rates for the 6 months ending May 2014, its exit cap rate was 50bps higher. figure 5: & income expectations adjusted upwards On an All Property level, valuers assumptions around perpetual income and cost growth have shown little change over the last 6 & 12 months. However there was significant variance between the different property segments (Figure 5). centres larger than 25,000sqm and property both posted an improved rental growth outlook while that of all office segments slightly lower than 6 months ago. The largest increase in perpetual property expenditure was recorded for CBD offices a segment already boasting the highest expected property expenditure at over 8%. All retail segments larger than 25,000sqm recorded lower expected operating cost growth. Over the past 6 months, transactions were fairly evenly split across the three main property sectors. On a segment level, Johannesburg decentralised offices, warehousing and low grade industrial accounted for the bulk of the transaction activity. A fair amount of transaction activity was also observed in retail centres smaller than 25,000sqm- indicative of the current phase of the listed property cycle. Some of the smaller funds that have listed with a mandate to aggressively grow their market capitalisation over the past 2-3 years have looked to these segments of the market for yield enhancing opportunities given the shortage of quality stock and related yield compression at the top end of market. 4

5 Market Discount Rate Property Type MIN MAX MED AVE Super Regional Shopping Centre >100,000m % 13.50% 12.50% 12.50% Regional Shopping Centre: ,000m % 13.75% 12.75% 13.00% Small Regional Centre: 25-50,000m % 14.00% 13.25% 13.31% Community Shopping Centre: 12-25,000m % 14.50% 13.75% 13.88% Neighbourhood Shopping Centre: 5-12,000m % 15.00% 14.00% 14.35% Local Convenience Centre < 5000m % 14.75% 14.50% 14.44% Power Centre/Speciality/Warehouse 14.00% 14.75% 14.00% 14.25% Stand Alone Unit 14.50% 14.75% 14.50% 14.56% Johannesburg CBD 14.00% 16.00% 15.50% 15.33% Non CBD Prime 13.00% 15.00% 14.38% 14.25% Non CBD Secondary 13.00% 16.00% 15.00% 14.83% Pretoria CBD 14.50% 16.00% 15.00% 15.17% Non CBD Prime 13.75% 15.00% 14.25% 14.31% Non CBD Secondary 14.50% 15.50% 14.88% 14.94% Cape Town CBD 13.75% 14.25% 14.00% 14.00% Non CBD Prime 13.75% 13.75% 13.75% 13.75% Non CBD Secondary 14.75% 15.00% 14.88% 14.88% Durban CBD 14.50% 16.50% 15.38% 15.44% Non CBD Prime 13.50% 14.50% 14.00% 14.00% Non CBD Secondary 14.50% 15.50% 15.00% 15.00% Port Elizabeth CBD 16.50% 16.50% 16.50% 16.50% Non CBD Prime 14.50% 14.50% 14.50% 14.50% Non CBD Secondary 16.00% 16.00% 16.00% 16.00% East London CBD 17.50% 17.50% 17.50% 17.50% Non CBD Prime 14.50% 14.50% 14.50% 14.50% Non CBD Secondary 16.00% 16.00% 16.00% 16.00% Other CBD 15.50% 16.00% 15.50% 15.67% Non CBD Prime 14.50% 15.50% 15.00% 15.00% Non CBD Secondary 14.50% 16.00% 15.50% 15.33% High-Tech 14.00% 15.00% 14.38% 14.46% High Grade 13.50% 15.50% 14.00% 14.39% Low Grade 14.50% 17.00% 15.75% 15.67% Warehousing 13.50% 15.50% 15.00% 14.82% Standard Units 14.00% 17.00% 15.00% 15.08% Other 15.00% 16.50% 15.75% 15.75% 5

6 Market Cap Rate Property Type MIN MAX MED AVE Super Regional Shopping Centre >100,000m2 6.00% 9.00% 6.50% 6.88% Regional Shopping Centre: ,000m2 6.75% 9.50% 6.88% 7.38% Small Regional Centre: 25-50,000m2 7.00% 9.50% 7.50% 7.88% Community Shopping Centre: 12-25,000m2 7.50% 10.00% 8.38% 8.56% Neighbourhood Shopping Centre: 5-12,000m2 8.00% 10.50% 8.63% 8.88% Local Convenience Centre < 5000m2 8.00% 11.99% 9.00% 9.68% Power Centre/Speciality/Warehouse 8.00% 11.00% 9.00% 9.08% Stand Alone Unit 8.00% 11.00% 9.00% 9.25% Johannesburg CBD 9.50% 11.50% 10.75% 10.67% Non CBD Prime 8.00% 10.00% 9.13% 9.08% Non CBD Secondary 9.75% 11.00% 10.75% 10.63% Pretoria CBD 10.00% 11.00% 10.63% 10.56% Non CBD Prime 9.00% 11.00% 9.38% 9.69% Non CBD Secondary 10.50% 11.00% 10.75% 10.75% Cape Town CBD 8.25% 9.57% 9.50% 9.11% Non CBD Prime 8.25% 9.25% 8.75% 8.75% Non CBD Secondary 9.50% 10.00% 9.75% 9.75% Durban CBD 10.50% 11.00% 11.00% 10.83% Non CBD Prime 8.50% 10.00% 9.00% 9.13% Non CBD Secondary 10.00% 10.50% 10.25% 10.25% Port Elizabeth CBD 11.00% 11.00% 11.00% 11.00% Non CBD Prime 9.00% 10.00% 9.50% 9.50% Non CBD Secondary 10.48% 10.50% 10.50% 10.49% East London CBD 12.00% 12.00% 12.00% 12.00% Non CBD Prime 9.00% 11.00% 10.00% 10.00% Non CBD Secondary 10.50% 10.50% 10.50% 10.50% Other CBD 11.00% 11.50% 11.00% 11.17% Non CBD Prime 10.00% 11.00% 10.50% 10.50% Non CBD Secondary 10.50% 11.50% 11.00% 11.00% High-Tech 8.75% 10.00% 9.25% 9.29% High Grade 8.75% 11.00% 9.50% 9.59% Low Grade 7.60% 12.00% 10.75% 10.42% Warehousing 9.50% 11.50% 10.00% 10.22% Standard Units 9.50% 11.50% 10.50% 10.34% Other 10.25% 13.00% 11.63% 11.63% 6

7 Market Rental Growth Rate Property Type MIN MAX MED AVE Super Regional Shopping Centre >100,000m2 5.00% 7.00% 6.00% 6.00% Regional Shopping Centre: ,000m2 5.00% 7.00% 6.00% 6.00% Small Regional Centre: 25-50,000m2 5.00% 7.00% 6.50% 6.25% Community Shopping Centre: 12-25,000m2 5.00% 7.00% 6.50% 6.25% Neighbourhood Shopping Centre: 5-12,000m2 5.50% 7.00% 6.50% 6.38% Local Convenience Centre < 5000m2 5.50% 7.00% 6.50% 6.38% Power Centre/Speciality/Warehouse 5.00% 7.00% 6.00% 6.20% Stand Alone Unit 5.00% 7.00% 6.50% 6.25% Johannesburg CBD 4.50% 8.00% 5.00% 5.90% Non CBD Prime 5.00% 7.00% 5.50% 5.90% Non CBD Secondary 4.50% 7.00% 5.00% 5.70% Pretoria CBD 5.00% 7.00% 5.50% 5.83% Non CBD Prime 5.50% 7.00% 5.50% 6.00% Non CBD Secondary 4.50% 7.00% 5.00% 5.50% Cape Town CBD 5.00% 5.50% 5.25% 5.25% Non CBD Prime 5.00% 5.50% 5.25% 5.25% Non CBD Secondary 5.00% 5.50% 5.25% 5.25% Durban CBD 5.00% 5.50% 5.00% 5.17% Non CBD Prime 5.00% 5.50% 5.50% 5.33% Non CBD Secondary 5.00% 5.50% 5.00% 5.17% Port Elizabeth CBD 5.50% 5.50% 5.50% 5.50% Non CBD Prime 5.50% 5.50% 5.50% 5.50% Non CBD Secondary 5.50% 5.50% 5.50% 5.50% East London CBD 5.50% 5.50% 5.50% 5.50% Non CBD Prime 5.50% 5.50% 5.50% 5.50% Non CBD Secondary 5.50% 5.50% 5.50% 5.50% Other CBD 4.50% 5.00% 4.75% 4.75% Non CBD Prime 4.50% 5.00% 4.75% 4.75% Non CBD Secondary 4.50% 5.00% 4.75% 4.75% High-Tech 5.50% 9.00% 6.00% 6.70% High Grade 5.00% 8.00% 5.75% 6.17% Low Grade 4.50% 8.00% 6.00% 6.08% Warehousing 5.00% 8.00% 6.00% 6.25% Standard Units 5.00% 7.00% 5.50% 5.67% Other 5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 7

8 Property Expenditure Growth Property Type MIN MAX MED AVE Super Regional Shopping Centre >100,000m2 7.00% 10.00% 7.00% 7.70% Regional Shopping Centre: ,000m2 7.00% 10.00% 7.00% 7.75% Small Regional Centre: 25-50,000m2 7.00% 10.00% 7.38% 7.94% Community Shopping Centre: 12-25,000m2 7.00% 10.00% 7.38% 7.94% Neighbourhood Shopping Centre: 5-12,000m2 7.00% 10.00% 7.38% 7.94% Local Convenience Centre < 5000m2 7.00% 10.00% 7.50% 8.00% Power Centre/Speciality/Warehouse 7.00% 10.00% 8.00% 8.00% Stand Alone Unit 7.00% 10.00% 7.63% 8.06% Johannesburg CBD 7.00% 10.00% 8.00% 8.20% Non CBD Prime 7.00% 10.00% 8.00% 8.10% Non CBD Secondary 7.00% 10.00% 8.00% 8.25% Pretoria CBD 7.00% 10.00% 9.25% 8.75% Non CBD Prime 7.00% 10.00% 8.50% 8.50% Non CBD Secondary 7.00% 10.00% 9.25% 8.75% Cape Town CBD 7.00% 8.50% 8.00% 7.83% Non CBD Prime 7.00% 8.25% 7.63% 7.63% Non CBD Secondary 7.00% 8.50% 7.75% 7.75% Durban CBD 7.00% 8.50% 7.00% 7.50% Non CBD Prime 7.00% 8.50% 7.00% 7.50% Non CBD Secondary 7.00% 8.25% 7.00% 7.42% Port Elizabeth CBD 7.00% 7.00% 7.00% 7.00% Non CBD Prime 7.00% 7.00% 7.00% 7.00% Non CBD Secondary 7.00% 7.00% 7.00% 7.00% East London CBD 7.00% 7.00% 7.00% 7.00% Non CBD Prime 7.00% 7.00% 7.00% 7.00% Non CBD Secondary 7.00% 7.00% 7.00% 7.00% Other CBD 7.00% 8.75% 7.88% 7.88% Non CBD Prime 7.00% 8.50% 7.75% 7.75% Non CBD Secondary 7.00% 8.50% 7.75% 7.75% High-Tech 7.00% 8.25% 7.00% 7.45% High Grade 7.00% 9.00% 7.50% 7.71% Low Grade 7.00% 8.25% 7.00% 7.45% Warehousing 7.00% 9.00% 7.50% 7.75% Standard Units 7.00% 9.00% 7.50% 7.75% Other 8.25% 8.25% 8.25% 8.25% 8

9 Exit Cap Rate Property Type MIN MAX MED AVE Super Regional Shopping Centre >100,000m2 7.00% 12.00% 7.00% 8.20% Regional Shopping Centre: ,000m2 7.25% 12.50% 8.00% 8.75% Small Regional Centre: 25-50,000m2 7.50% 12.50% 8.38% 9.19% Community Shopping Centre: 12-25,000m2 8.00% 13.00% 9.13% 9.81% Neighbourhood Shopping Centre: 5-12,000m2 8.50% 13.00% 9.38% 10.06% Local Convenience Centre < 5000m2 9.00% 13.00% 9.63% 10.31% Power Centre/Speciality/Warehouse 9.00% 13.00% 10.00% 10.35% Stand Alone Unit 9.00% 13.50% 10.25% 10.75% Johannesburg CBD 10.50% 13.00% 11.63% 11.63% Non CBD Prime 9.00% 11.00% 9.75% 9.92% Non CBD Secondary 10.25% 12.00% 11.25% 11.29% Pretoria CBD 10.50% 13.00% 11.50% 11.63% Non CBD Prime 9.50% 11.00% 10.25% 10.25% Non CBD Secondary 11.00% 11.50% 11.25% 11.25% Cape Town CBD 8.75% 11.00% 9.88% 9.88% Non CBD Prime 8.75% 10.50% 9.63% 9.63% Non CBD Secondary 10.00% 12.00% 11.00% 11.00% Durban CBD 11.00% 12.00% 11.50% 11.50% Non CBD Prime 9.00% 11.75% 9.25% 9.81% Non CBD Secondary 10.50% 12.25% 10.75% 11.06% Port Elizabeth CBD 11.50% 11.50% 11.50% 11.50% Non CBD Prime 9.50% 9.50% 9.50% 9.50% Non CBD Secondary 11.00% 11.00% 11.00% 11.00% East London CBD 12.50% 12.50% 12.50% 12.50% Non CBD Prime 9.50% 9.50% 9.50% 9.50% Non CBD Secondary 11.00% 11.00% 11.00% 11.00% Other CBD 11.50% 12.50% 12.00% 12.00% Non CBD Prime 10.50% 12.00% 11.50% 11.33% Non CBD Secondary 11.00% 12.50% 12.00% 11.83% High-Tech 9.25% 10.75% 10.00% 10.04% High Grade 9.25% 11.00% 10.50% 10.18% Low Grade 10.00% 12.00% 11.50% 11.42% Warehousing 10.00% 11.50% 10.50% 10.57% Standard Units 10.00% 12.00% 11.00% 10.96% Other 11.75% 11.75% 11.75% 11.75% 9

10 Number of Transactions Property Type TOTAL Super Regional Shopping Centre >100,000m2 2 Regional Shopping Centre: ,000m2 4 Small Regional Centre: 25-50,000m2 2 Community Shopping Centre: 12-25,000m2 4 Neighbourhood Shopping Centre: 5-12,000m2 6 Local Convenience Centre < 5000m2 6 Power Centre/Speciality/Warehouse 4 Stand Alone Unit 4 Johannesburg CBD 4 Non CBD Prime 11 Non CBD Secondary 11 Pretoria CBD 0 Non CBD Prime 0 Non CBD Secondary 2 Cape Town CBD 1 Non CBD Prime 1 Non CBD Secondary 1 Durban CBD 0 Non CBD Prime 1 Non CBD Secondary 0 Port Elizabeth CBD 0 Non CBD Prime 0 Non CBD Secondary 2 East London CBD 0 Non CBD Prime 2 Non CBD Secondary 0 Other CBD 0 Non CBD Prime 0 Non CBD Secondary 0 High-Tech 5 High Grade 7 Low Grade 10 Warehousing 12 Standard Units 9 Other 1 10

11 Statistics were provided by the following member companies: property valuation AS V ASSET VALUATION SERVICES C.C. Ian Mitchell Investment Property Consultant Chartered Surveyors & Valuers 11