Bankruptcy Law and Entrepreneurship
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1 Bankruptcy Law and Entrepreneurship John Armour CBR & Law Faculty, Cambridge University Douglas Cumming Director, Severino Center for Entrepreneurship, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute
2 Motivation Growing salience of entrepreneurship policy Personal bankruptcy law believed to be relevant by UK/EU policymakers Reform of bankruptcy laws 24: Enterprise Act facilitates fresh start in UK 25: Bankruptcy Reform Act restricts fresh start in US No international study shows link between bky law and entrepreneurship across countries
3 What determines entrepreneurship? (1) Individual characteristics Risk tolerance (Wagner and Sternberg, 22) Optimism (Venkataraman and Lee, 21; Landier and Thesmar, 23) Wealth endowment (e.g. Blanchflower and Oswald, 1997) Human capital (e.g. Lazear, 22; Wagner, 23) Economic factors GDP growth (e.g. Landier, 22; Fan and White, 23) Cultural factors Attitudes to risk (e.g. Hofstede et al, 22)
4 What determines entrepreneurship? (2) Regional geography Agglomeration externalities (e.g. Saxenian, 1994) Fiscal regime CGT vs income tax (Poterba, 1989a,b; Gompers and Lerner, 1998) Legal regime IP protection (Gilson, 1999; Lerner, 22; Bigus, 24) Ease of incorporation (Djankov et al, 22) Personal bankruptcy law (Fan and White, 23; Georgellis and Wall, 22; Persad, 24)
5 What determines entrepreneurship? (3) Bankruptcy Law (US) Berkowitz and White (24) Fan and White (23) Georgellis and Wall (22) Persad (24) Prior empirical work does not Consider international differences Consider role of fresh start
6 Hypothesis Relaxing severity of personal bankruptcy law will stimulate entrepreneurship Severity time to discharge (if any), exemptions, disabilities
7 Intuitions 1. Marginal entrepreneurs (Adler et al, 2) Insurance Incentives US evidence: Fan and White, 23; Georgellis and Wall, 22; Berkowitz and White, 24; Persad, Inframarginal entrepreneurs Bad projects vs bad luck Budget constraint vs deadweight loss
8 Summary of Key Results Eurostat Self Employment Data Compendia Self Employment Data Bankruptcy Law (low #s better) MSCI Stock Market Returns GDP Growth Income Capital Gains Tax Patents (lagged) Internet Bubble Time Trend
9 Methodology (1) Dependent variables Self Employed / Population (EUROSTAT) Self Employed (inc. owner-managers) / Work Force (COMPENDIA) Specification (Judge et al, 1988) Country fixed effects Data de-trended
10 Methodology (2) Explanatory variables Time to discharge (or life expectancy) Stock market returns GDP growth Internet Bubble (2-22) Income Capital Gains Tax Patents (lagged) Time Trend
11 Figure 2. Self Employment / Population, Averages Ireland Canada Finland Belgium UK Sweden Austria Netherlands France Denmark Germany US Portugal Italy Spain Self Employment / Population Time to Discharge in Bankruptcy / 1 Real GDP Growth
12 Table 2. Summary Statistics Test # Self Employment/Population Full Sample Including All Countries Average Value Difference Test Self Employment/Population All Countries, Excluding Italy, Portugal, and Spain Average Value Difference Test 1 Real GDP Return > Real GDP Return < MSCI Index Return > MSCI Index Return < *** Years 1999 and 2 Only All Other Years (199-22) No fresh start Fresh start available *** *** 5 # Start-up Procedures > 6.5 # Start-up Procedures < *** ***
13 Table 4. Regression Analyses of Self Employment / Population EUROSTAT DATA Model (1) Model (2) Model (3) Model (4) Model (5) Model (6) Model (7) Country Fixed Effects? Time to Discharge -.91*** -.93*** -.95*** -.95*** -.95*** -.18*** -.116*** Real GDP Growth.2246*.2195*.2197*.2137*.2797**.2978** MSCI Index 4.22E E E-3 5.E E-3 Patents -4.98E E E E-8 Income - Capital Gains Tax 1.2E E E-4 Dummy for 1999 and * -8.55E-4 Time Trend -5.34E-5 Number of Observations Adjusted R F-Statistic 68.6*** *** *** 59.41*** Loglikelihood Function Akaike Information Statistic
14 Table 5. Further Robust Checks: Regression Analyses of Self-Employed Business Owners / Total Labour Force COMPENDIA DATA Model (1) Model (2) Model (3) Model (4) Model (5) Model (6) Models (7) Country Fixed Effects? Time to Discharge -.16*** -.15*** -.18*** -.19*** -.19*** -.22*** -.34*** Real GDP Growth MSCI Index.7675*.8524*.8251* * Patents -.1** -.1* Income - Capital Gains Tax Dummy for 1999 and Time Trend -.75*** Number of Observations Adjusted R F-Statistic 23.5*** *** *** *** *** *** 166.3*** Loglikelihood Function Akaike Information Statistic
15 Economic Significance We show that changes in bankruptcy laws in Europe in the 199s are consistent with an increase in self employed / population of, e.g..8 in Germany (9% of the average self-employment rate in Germany).9 in the Netherlands (8% of the average self-employment rate in the Netherlands)
16 Implications General Personal bankruptcy law matters for entrepreneurs In our study, its economic significance is greater than GDP growth and stock market returns. For recent law reforms UK reforms likely to stimulate entrepreneurship US reforms the reverse NB Limitations / caveats: Impact on consumer bankruptcies Welfare implications ambiguous
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