How Do Labor and Capital Share Private Sector Economic Gains in an Age of Globalization?

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1 1 How Do Labor and Capital Share Private Sector Economic Gains in an Age of Globalization? Erica Owen Texas A&M Quan Li Texas A&M IPES November 15, 214

2 Rich vs. Poor (1% vs. 99%) 2

3 3 Motivation Literature on inequality emphasizes the distribution of wealth between rich and poor Distribution of wealth distribution of gains between labor and capital Distribution of gains between capital and labor is central to classical political economy as it is the source of class conflict Class conflict still underlies much of the discussion in contemporary politics (Jimmy John s, Walmart, Apple)

4 Capital vs. Labor: class conflict as central problem 4

5 5 Research questions 1 How do labor and capital divide private sector economic gains from production over the last four decades? 2 How do economic globalization and organized labor influence the distribution of gains between labor and capital?

6 6 Data Dependent variable: Ratio of compensation over profits in private sector Compensation of employees (by corporations): wages, salaries and social contributions of employers Corporate Profits: gross balance of primary corporate income (gross value added + subsidies on production + property income compensation of employees taxes on production payable property income) Source: Annual Macroeconomic Database of the European Commission Sample 17 Countries: Austria, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom, and the United States 36 years:

7 7 Figure 1: Mean and median of compensation/profits decline over time 3.5 Compensation/profits Mean Median Year Note: Compensation/profits from.92 to 6.39 in sample

8 8 Figure 2: Annual spread of compensation/profits declines over time 1 Standard deviation of ratio Year

9 9 How do labor and capital divide economic gains from production over the last four decades? Split of gains between labor and capital has become: 1 More favorable to capital over time 2 Similar between countries over time

10 Figure 3: Potential influence of globalization and organized labor on distribution of gains between labor and capital Compensation/profits Mean Median Year Economic globalization Mean Median Year 1 Union density Mean Median Year KOF index of economic globalization: combined indices of actual flows and formal restrictions on trade and capital; Union density: share of labor force that are union members (ICTWSS)

11 11 How do economic globalization and organized labor influence the distribution of gains between labor and capital? 1 Impact of globalization on profits and compensation Globaliza(on*!!Market! compe,,on! More!(less)! produc,ve!firms! associated!with! higher!(lower)!wages! and!profits! Ambiguous! aggregate!effect! on!wages!and! profits!!!capital! mobility! Outside!op,ons! increase!bargaining! power!rela,ve!to! labor! "!Wages,!!!!Profits!

12 12 How do economic globalization and organized labor influence the distribution of gains between labor and capital? 2 Impact of organized labor on profits and compensation Organized*labor*! Produc'vity, (monopoly), ",Produc'vity, (transac'on,costs), Union,wage, premium, Ambiguous,aggregate, effect,on,profits, ",Wages,,!,Profits,

13 13 How do economic globalization and organized labor influence the distribution of gains between labor and capital? 3 The effects of globalization and organized labor work against each other globalization constrains bargaining power of unions, union wage premium Organized labor pushes back against the downward bias of globalization Therefore their effects are conditional on each other

14 Error correction specification Compensation/P rofits t = β + β 1 Compensation/P rofits t 1 + β 2 Unionization t 1 + β 3 Unionization t + β 4 Globalization t 1 + β 5 Globalization + β 6 Unionization t Globalization t + Controls + α i + ɛ it Controls (levels and change): government spending, GDP per capita (log), GDP (log), German reunification, recession indicator, EU membership, country fixed effects 14

15 15 Table 1: Error correction model of ratio of compensation to profits Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 Ratio t Union density Union density t Globalization index Globalization index t Union Globalization t Government spending Government spending t Log GDP per capita Log GDP per capita t Log GDP Log GDP t German reunification German reunification t Recession Recession t EU member -.84 EU member t Constant Observations Adjusted R # of countries p <.1, p <.5, p <.1

16 16 Figure 4: Marginal effect of union density conditional on globalization.5 Marginal effect of union density KOF Globalization Index Dashed lines respresent 95% confidence interval. Effect of organized labor always positive Magnitude decreases as globalization increases

17 17 Figure 5: Marginal effect of globalization conditional on union density.1 Marginal effect of globalization Union density Dashed lines respresent 95% confidence interval. Negative effect of globalization at high levels of unionization No effect at low levels of union density

18 18 Table 2: Growth rates of compensation and profits Compensation (1) Profits (2) Union density t (.146) (.568) Globalization index t (.44) (.342) Union Globalization t (.1) (.6) Government spending t (.197) (.514) Log GDP t (8.985) (32.516) Log GDP per capitat (12.2) (46.588) German reunification t (.87) (2.68) Recession t (.56) (1.581) EU membership t (1.341) (4.541) Constant ( ) ( ) Observations Adjusted R # of countries Standard errors in parentheses p <.1, p <.5, p <.1

19 19 Figure 6: Marginal effects of union density Growth in compensation Growth in profits.5.6 Marginal effect of union density KOF Globalization Index Dashed lines represent 95% confidence intervals KOF Globalization Index Positive effect of organized labor on compensation as globalization At low levels of globalization, slight negative effect on profits

20 2 Figure 7: Marginal effects of globalization.2 Growth in compensation Growth in profits Union density Union density Dashed lines represent 95% confidence intervals Negative effect of globalization on compensation at medium to high levels of union density Effect of globalization on profits not distinguishable from zero

21 21 Conclusions Division of the gains from production has shifted in favor of capital Convergence across countries at lower level of compensation/profits Distribution of gains shaped by interaction of globalization and organized labor Wage premium of organized labor always positive, but declines as a country becomes more open Organized labor reduces profits, but this effect disappears as a country becomes more open Globalization suppresses union wage premium at high levels of union density Effect of globalization on profits ambiguous regardless of level of union density

22 22 Table 3: Summary statistics Variable Mean Std. Dev. Min. Max. N Ratio compensation to profits Growth in compensation Growth in profits Union density Economic globalization Government spending GDP per capita GDP (billions USD)

23 23 Non-stationarity in compensation/profits Table 4: Panel unitroot test (IPS) Test statistic P-value Demeaned, no trend Demeaned, Trend Not demeaned, no trend Not demeaned, trend

24 24 Table 5: Individual country unit root tests of ratio Country Statistic P-value # obs. Austria Belgium Denmark Finland France Germany Greece 1. 7 Italy Netherlands Norway Portugal Spain Sweden Switzerland United Kingdom United States Dickey Fuller test without deterministic trend

25 25 Figure 8: Sample jacknife analysis of ratio of compensation to profits Marginal effect of union density, conditional on globalization Austria Belgium Denmark Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Netherlands Norway Portugal Spain Sweden Switzerland UK US Dashed lines represent 9% confidence intervals

26 26 Figure 9: wealth Distribution between capital and labor vs. concentration of 6 Ratio compensation over profits rho= Gini coefficient

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