CONSUMER FOOD TRENDS FOR THE NEXT TEN YEARS AND WHAT THEY MEAN FOR YOU. Jennifer Dennis, Ph.D. Purdue University

Transcription

1 CONSUMER FOOD TRENDS FOR THE NEXT TEN YEARS AND WHAT THEY MEAN FOR YOU Jennifer Dennis, Ph.D. Purdue University

2 OPINIONS, ATTITUDES, AND INTERESTS We turn to one food fixation after another 1985 sugar 1986 caffeine 1987 salt 1990 cholesterol 1994 fat 2003 carbohydrates Source: NPD Group

3 Personal Influences: Age and gender Income Life stage Lifestyle Individual Influences: - Perception - Motivation - Learning - Attitudes - Personality Consumer Behavior Decision Model Choice Situational Influences: Time of purchase Time available Mood Shopping environment Persons accompanying Social Influences: < Culture / sub-culture < Social Class < Reference groups < Influential

4 FOOD CONSUMPTION AND SPENDING TO 2020 Consumers will demand: New food products New packaging More convenience New delivery systems Safer nutritious food The image cannot be displayed. Your computer may not have enough memory to open the image, or the image may have been corrupted. Restart your computer, and then open the file again. If the red x still appears, you may have to delete the image and then insert it again. Source: USDA ERS, Food Review: Vol 25(1)

5 INCOME, AGE, RACE, AND EDUCATION ARE MAJOR FACTORS Higher Incomes Aging Populations Changes in age distribution will have a bigger effect on per capita food expenditures Older people tend to eat away from home less frequently than younger people Fruits, vegetables, fish and pork will increase Higher Educational Achievement Shifts in consumption expected to occur with income growth Influx of Ethnic Populations U.S. Hispanic population is expected to grow

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7 Hispanic Population in the United States: 1970 to 2050 Population in millions Census Projections *Projected Population as of July 1 7 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1970, 1980, 1990, and 2000 Decennial Censuses; Population Projections, July 1, 2010 to July 1, 2050

8 Percent Hispanic of the Total Population in the United States: 1970 to 2050 Census Projections *Projected Population as of July 1 8 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1970, 1980, 1990, and 2000 Decennial Censuses; Population Projections, July 1, 2010 to July 1, 2050

9 ASIAN POPULATION $254 Billion in buying power Younger than the average market 30.1 years Average household size is larger than other groups 3.8 Asian Households vs. 3.2 for Americans Cultural preference for multi-generational households and fueled by immigration Social Status Image is important Highest household income of any group $10,000 higher than non-hispanic Whites $ higher than Hispanics

10 WHAT MAKES YOU FEEL COMFORTABLE Place identity Congruency between a consumer s self-identity and consumption setting Ethnic consumers evaluate their place identity by assessing verbal and non-verbal cues in a consumption setting It is not just about what you sell.what does it mean in relation to their self-identities Source: Journal of Business Research, 2007

11 The image cannot be displayed. Your computer may not have enough memory to open the image, or the image may have been corrupted. Restart your computer, and then open the file again. If the red x still appears, you may have to delete the image and then insert it again.

12 Source: USDA ERS Fruit and Vegetable Consumption, 2004

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14 Source: USDA ERS Fruit and Vegetable Consumption, 2004

15 FOOD PRICES

16 Continue to see rising food costs based on higher costs of fuel, feed, packaging, food safety Higher demand for exports Consumer food costs can decrease by: Using less meat and seafood More non-meat ingredients Whole-wheat pasta, brown rice, vegetables, etc.

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19 Current Economic Indicators January 04, 2012 (Close of Day) Indicator Value US GDP Growth, % 1.81 US Inflation, % 3.41 US Unemployment % 8.60

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21 2011 AND 2012 CPI ESTIMATES CPI for all food is projected to increase 3.25 to 3.75 percent. Food-at-home (grocery store) prices are forecast to rise 4.25 to 4.75 percent Food-away-from-home (restaurant) prices are forecast to increase 2 to 2.5 percent. Cost pressures on wholesale and retail food prices due to higher food commodity and energy prices, along with strengthening global food demand, have pushed inflation projections upward for Price levels in 2012 will hinge significantly on several macroeconomic factors such as weather conditions, fuel prices, and the value of the U.S. dollar (an indicator of global demand).

22 GENERATIONAL SEGMENTS

23 The image cannot be displayed. Your computer may not have enough memory to open the image, or the image may have been corrupted. Restart your computer, and then open the file again. If the red x still appears, you may have to delete the image and then insert it again. BABY BOOMERS Control 52% of spending on food by 2015 Largest food purchasers and influencers Food and beverages with health benefits Wider aisles and lower shelves

24 Figure 49: Baby Boomers diet and lifestyle behaviors, by younger/older Boomers, August 2011 Thinking about your diet/lifestyle in general, which of the following do you personally do? * an index of 100 = average adult aged 18+. Indices of 110 and above and 90 and below are considered significant. An index of 110 indicates Baby Boomer respondents are 10% more likely than the average adult to have chosen the response. An index of 90 indicates that Baby Boomer respondents are 10% less likely than the average adult to have chosen the response. All All Baby Boomers Younger Boomers (47-55) Older Boomers (56-65) All Baby Boomers Base: internet users aged 18+ 2, % % % % Index* Have health insurance or a health savings account Cook healthy meals from scratch Take vitamin supplements Look for healthier menu options when dining out Eat at least three servings of fruit/vegetables a day Exercise regularly (at least three times a week) Purchase foods fortified with vitamins Seek to include foods in my diet that I believe will enhance my wellbeing, such as super fruits Avoid eating processed food Eat/drink organic food/beverages Limit consumption of or completely avoid meat Smoke Meditate Practice yoga, Pilates, martial arts (tai chi, aikido, etc.) Visit a complementary or alternative medicine practitioner (such as an acupuncturist or other alternative health care provider)

25 FARM TO FORK

26 Male Shoppers 41% of men are cooking at home Extreme Home Cooking Eating at home to save money Making the most out of the least Buying Local Blogs and social media help tell the story

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30 SOCIAL NETWORKING TIDBITS Google.com/alerts what are people saying about you Nearbytweets.com tweets by subject Nearby Tweets makes it simple to find twitterers nearby (or anywhere for that matter) by your location and the last 50 tweets near you Listorious.com search for users and lists Hootsuite web based platform where you can manage all social media accounts Can manage most accounts facebook, twitter, linkedin Can create a search for people using terms or keywords Can pre-schedule content (time management) Where is your smart phone technology?

31 QUESTIONS