Infrastructure in Brazil Challenges and Opportunities

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1 Infrastructure in Brazil Challenges and Opportunities Marcos Ludwig Latin American Infrastructure Forum May 2017 Sofitel Hotel Melbourne

2 Brazil Key facts and figures 8,515,767 km² 5 th largest country in the world Largest in South America = 47% Largest in the Southern Hemisphere Largest contiguous territory in the Americas 207,501,000 5 th largest population in the world Largest in South America = 50% US$2.14 trillion 9 th largest nominal GDP in the world* Largest in South America = 53% * IMF World Economic Outlook (April 2017)

3 Brazil / Latin America Population Total ( ) million LATIN AMERICA & CARIBBEAN 633 million 137 million BRAZIL 208 million 77 million MEXICO 127 million 31 million COLOMBIA 48 million 30 million ARGENTINA 43 million The World Bank <

4 Brazil / Latin America GDP Nominal, current US$ ( ) billion LATIN AMERICA & CARIBBEAN 5,349 billion 223 billion BRAZIL 1,804 billion 184 billion MEXICO 1,144 billion 88 billion ARGENTINA 585 billion 35 billion COLOMBIA 292 billion 16 billion CHILE 241 billion 17 billion PERU 189 billion The World Bank <

5 Taking a closer look GDP growth rate ( ) Election year IMF; Brazil s Central Bank (BACEN) Roberto Stuckert Filho/Presidência da República (2011); Agência Brasil (2012)

6 Taking a closer look GDP growth rate ( ) Election year Social unrest IMF; Brazil s Central Bank (BACEN) Fernando Souza/Agência O Dia (2013); Bloomberg

7 Taking a closer look GDP growth rate ( ) Election year Social unrest Car Wash, World Cup, Election year IMF; Brazil s Central Bank (BACEN) Reuters (2014), Associated Press (2014)

8 Taking a closer look GDP growth rate ( ) Election year Social unrest Car Wash, World Cup, Election year Impeachment, new administration IMF; Brazil s Central Bank (BACEN) Juca Varella/Agência Brasil; Fabio Pozzebom/Agência Brasil

9 A rebound in confidence GDP growth rate ( , * est.) Election year Social unrest Car Wash, World Cup, Election year Impeachment, new administration Election year IMF; Brazil s Central Bank (BACEN) Quote from the World Bank Group, Global Economic Prospects: January 2017

10 Fight against corruption Political uncertainty today, a better country tomorrow 1,434 procedures (warrants, prison orders) LAVA JATO Operation Car Wash 183 requests of international cooperation 155 plea bargains 139 convictions, totaling 1,415 years of jail time Reimbursement requests totaling R$38.1 billion, of which R$6.4 billion related to bribery payments CCJ/Federal Senate; Supreme Court; Ag. Brasil

11 Doing the homework Structural reforms promoted by the federal government H Public spending ceiling Investment Partnerships Program (PPI) H Middle school Social security Labour laws Renewal of concessions, new auctions Port decree H Tax laws Bankruptcy & insolvency Regulatory agencies Political (electoral system) Indicative list based on official sources and statements published on the Brazilian press

12 Infrastructure gaps Low quality, low spending McKinsey Global Institute, Bridging Global Infrastructure Gaps (June 2016)

13 Infrastructure gaps Far from the trendline, worse than fellow BRICs McKinsey Global Institute, Bridging Global Infrastructure Gaps (June 2016)

14 Investment Partnerships Program (PPI) The 10 Guidelines 1 Concessions will be conducted under maximum technical rigor 6 All auction notices will be published in Portuguese and English 2 Focus will be on improving services to the people and the productive sector 7 Minimum term between the auction notice and the bid will be of 100 days 3 All contracts will have clear indicators so as to improve legal certainty 8 Concessions will only be granted to projects with environmental feasibility 4 Actual meaning of State bodies will be restored to the regulatory agencies 9 The long-term financing model will change 5 Auction notices will only be released after public debate and endorsement by the Federal Court of Auditors (TCU) 10 Existing concessions will remain committed to ensuring balanced projects Brazil s federal government, Projeto Crescer <

15 Investment Partnerships Program (PPI) Auctioned AIRPORT CONCESSIONS (4) SECTOR Airport ASSET Brownfield TYPE Common concession INVESTMENT US$1.2 billion AGENCIES ANAC, Ministry of Transportation TERM years Auctioned on March 16, 2017 Brazil s federal government, Projeto Crescer <

16 Investment Partnerships Program (PPI) Auctioned POWER TRANSMISSION LINES (35 LOTS) SECTOR Power Transmission Lines ASSET Greenfield (7,358 km) TYPE Common concession INVESTMENT US$4.2 billion AGENCIES Aneel, Ministry of Mines and Energy TERM 30 years Auctioned on April 24, 2017 Brazil s federal government, Projeto Crescer <

17 Investment Partnerships Program (PPI) Extensions EARLY EXTENSION OF RAIL CONCESSIONS (5) SECTOR Railroad ASSET Brownfield, greenfield TYPE Common concession INVESTMENT US$8.0 billion AGENCIES ANTT, Ministry of Transportation TERM 30 years Brazil s federal government, Projeto Crescer <

18 Investment Partnerships Program (PPI) In Progress SOUTH INTEGRATION HIGHWAY SECTOR Highway ASSET Brownfield TYPE Common concession (468 km) INVESTMENT US$2.5 billion AGENCIES ANTT, Ministry of Transportation TERM 30 years Brazil s federal government, Projeto Crescer <

19 Investment Partnerships Program (PPI) In Progress SECTOR ASSET TYPE MINERAL EXPLORATION RIGHTS OF CPRM INVESTMENT - AGENCIES PROJECTS Mining Brownfield Exploratory concession rights (new) DNPM, Ministry of Mines and Energy Miriri (PB/PE): phosphate Palmeirópolis (TO): copper, lead, zinc Candiota (RS): coal Bom Jardim de Goiás (GO): copper Brazil s federal government, Projeto Crescer <

20 Investment Partnerships Program (PPI) In Progress GENERAL CARGO TERMINAL PORT OF ITAQUI SECTOR Ports ASSET Greenfield TYPE Common concession INVESTMENT US$62.6 million AGENCIES ANTAQ, Ministry of Transportation TERM 25 years Brazil s federal government, Projeto Crescer <

21 Investment Partnerships Program (PPI) In Progress NORTH-SOUTH RAILROAD (EF-151) SECTOR Railroad ASSET Brownfield TYPE Subconcession (1,537 km) INVESTMENT US$234.5 million AGENCIES ANTT, Ministry of Transportation TERM 35 years Brazil s federal government, Projeto Crescer <

22 Sources of Financing BNDES Loans vs Infra Debentures ( *) Selic rate (in BRL billion) TJLP rate % * 98% 96% 94% 92% 90% * BNDES Disbursements Infra Debentures BNDES Disbursements Infra Debentures BNDES; ANBIMA; Central Bank of Brazil (BACEN) *Year to date (April/2017)

23 See you in Brazil! Marcos Ludwig Latin American Infrastructure Forum May 2017 Sofitel Hotel Melbourne

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25 Exports from Brazil 21 st largest exporter in the world Total exports: US$196 billion AJG Simoes, CA Hidalgo. The Economic Complexity Observatory: An Analytical Tool for Understanding the Dynamics of Economic Development Workshops at the Twenty-Fifth AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence (2011), in: < (data from 2015)

26 Imports into Brazil 26 th largest importer in the world Total imports: US$170 billion AJG Simoes, CA Hidalgo. The Economic Complexity Observatory: An Analytical Tool for Understanding the Dynamics of Economic Development Workshops at the Twenty-Fifth AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence (2011), in: < (data from 2015)