Brazil: A New Horizon?

Transcription

1 Bert Hoffmann GIGA Institute of Latin American Studies Hamburg, Germany Brazil: A New Horizon? ERA Conference Novara, 5-6 November 2013

2 Which Brazil? This one??

3 Or this one?

4 A New Reality Sept. 6, 2002: IMF bails out Brazil with largest loan ever (Reuters) June 11, 2009: Brazil lends IMF money ahead of BRIC summit (Reuters)

5 A New Economy: Growth and Stability

6 New Politics: Democracy

7 and Political Continuity Extraordinary leaders: Fernando Henrique Cardoso ( ) Inácio Lula da Silva ( ) Dilma Rousseff (2011- )

8 Order and Progress

9 A New Global Player

10 China Latin America: A Decade of Change Chinese trade with Latin America: 2000: US$ 10 bn 2010: US$ 180 bn Chinese FDI in Latin America: 2000: US$ 0,4 bn 2010: US$ 48,0 bn Brazil s #1 market for primary exports: China Brazil s #1 competitor for industrial products: China

11 Historic Inequality

12 and a New Promise: Growth with Equity Macro-economic orthodoxy but with a social face Spearheading conditional cash transfer programs: bolsa familia, fome zero, increase in minimum wage Poverty decreases: -24% since 2003 and even inequality

13 A Success Story? - Yes, but What Drives Growth? Mineral Resources Agricultural Products Windfall from high world market prices NOT driven by regional integration NOT driven by manufacturing sectors NOT driven by productivity gains (except agriculture) Repeat performance of the 1970s economic miracle? ecological concerns

14 A middle income country becoming a middle class country Income per Day (World Bank data)

15 and it s a population f 200 million!

16 Think of Favelas

17 as middle class

18 New water tanks and fridges and.

19 and new demands Protests against: high prices poor public services corruption

20 and a responsive President 50 bn Reals spending package improving public transportation, education, health etc.

21 Sorry, we re transforming Brazil

22 Economic worries Easy growth has come to an end Dependence on commodities prices Can Brazil get growth from productivity gains? Spending pledges vs. sound finances Overvalued currency killing exports but with devaluation inflation creeping back? Structural reforms post-poned in boom years Over-the-top generosity on pensions Public spending on transfers but not on infrastructure Public security improved but still 650,000 privat security guards

23 Custo Brasil The Brazil Cost High tariffs High taxes High prices of transport, industrial goods, rents, etc. (Brazilians go shopping abroad ) Rigid labor laws, salaries have moved up Much red tape, much bureaucracy Corruption But: Custo Brazil hits exporters less those who are inside

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25 Beware the hype! First overdrawing success, now overdrawing failure Much gradualism, much continuity Protectionism will persist Ups and downs, but: - world s third largest food exporter - world s sixth largest economy - qualified elites and serious businesses Pride and assertiveness and allergic to European recommendations Doing business with Brazil is a long-term affair!

26 Growth to continue Estimates: Economist Intelligence Unit Infrastructure: seeking private investors Moderate devaluation of the currency Gradual reduction of tariffs Dilma Rousseff still with 50%+ approval ratings Demands up + slower growth + election year = danger of inflation

27 2014 : All eyes on Brazil Soccer World Cup underscoring global player status Domestically, a wild card: Economic stimulus But also highlighting problems (repeat with 2016 Olympics) Politically Opportunity for protesters Opportunity for the President For us: Great games to watch!

28 Thank you for your attention!