Technical Note No 13 Enhanced Model Land Use 2030

Transcription

1 Department of Transport PO Box 20 Abu Dhabi United Arab Emirates Technical Note No 13 Enhanced Model Land Use 2030 February 2009 Mott MacDonald PO Box Abu Dhabi United Arab Emirates T F

2 Technical Note No 13 Enhanced Model Land Use 2030 Issue and revision record Rev Date Originator Checker Approver Description B 05/02/09 GV CPKS CPKS February update This document has been prepared for the titled project or named part thereof and should not be relied upon or used for any other project without an independent check being carried out as to its suitability and prior written authority of Mott MacDonald being obtained. Mott MacDonald accepts no responsibility or liability for the consequence of this document being used for a purpose other than the purposes for which it was commissioned. Any person using or relying on the document for such other purpose agrees, and will by such use or reliance be taken to confirm his agreement to indemnify Mott MacDonald for all loss or damage resulting therefrom. Mott MacDonald accepts no responsibility or liability for this document to any party other than the person by whom it was commissioned. To the extent that this report is based on information supplied by other parties, Mott MacDonald accepts no liability for any loss or damage suffered by the client, whether contractual or tortious, stemming from any conclusions based on data supplied by parties other than Mott MacDonald and used by Mott MacDonald in preparing this report.

3 1 Introduction This technical note details the assumptions used to calculate land use for the Traffic Analysis Zones (TAZ) in the enhanced model for the final year The land use data forms the basis for the trip attraction calculations in the model while socio-economic data is mainly responsible for the calculation of trip generation. The model has proven to be more sensitive to trip attraction data and hence it is imperative to ensure that sound land use input data is used. Chapter 7 of Working Paper 1 had set out the broad approach to the establishment of a land use pattern for The land use database includes the number of square meters of floor space (Gross Floor Area or ) for each of seven categories, which are Housing, Retail Office Industrial School Medical and Other. Note: The 2008 landuse database consists of a total of twelve landuse categories and has additional categories for Social/Recreational, Palace, Religious, Utility and Museum. However, the model uses the same trip rate for these categories and therefore they have been combined into the single category Other for the purpose of the 2030 database. The development of the 2008 landuse database is set out in Technical Note No. 12. Socio-economic data includes the number of: Households Population Workers Students and Hotel Rooms The land use and socio-economic data used for this work comes from three main sources: 1. Data provided by the UPC 2. Plan Abu Dhabi Data extracted from Abu Dhabi Municipality s existing Emme/2 model for year 2021 Page 1

4 2 Methodology In an initial step, a database had been produced based mainly on data extracted from Abu Dhabi Municipality s existing Emme/2 model for year To a lesser extent data provided by the UPC on individual future developments and from Plan 2030 was also used as input. When comparing this initial database with data provided in Plan 2030 several major discrepancies and problems were discovered. In particular office and industry areas were significantly higher in the database compared to data provided in Plan Also, doing some sense checks by calculating values for average housing floor area per person, average Medical per hospital bed etc. lead to some questionable results. Two main reasons for these discrepancies were identified: 1. Plan 2030 and the ADM Emme/2 model use significantly dissimilar baselines. Baseline data provided in Plan 2030 appears to be significantly lower than the baseline values in the ADM model. Baseline values for the latter are based on ADM GIS database and have been combined with 2005 census data. 2. In some areas, adding up the data provided for all proposed developments results in higher values than proposed in Plan 2030 if built as currently planned. UPC agreed to review the landuse and socio-economic data provided in the initial database and make changes where appropriate. To do this UPC were provided with a spreadsheet showing data from the initial database for the following categories by Traffic analysis Zone (TAZ): Residential, Retail Office Industrial School Medical Households Population and Hotel Rooms The landuse and socio-economic database had also been incorporated into GIS and maps showing the density of the various attributes were also provided to UPC for easier review. Density was calculated by dividing the values for the individual attributes by the land area of the corresponding TAZ. An example of such a map is shown in Figure 2.1 below, illustrating the density of Residential in the CBD. Page 2

5 Figure 2.1: Example of Density Map for Housing /Area in CBD The review process was carried out on a precinct by precinct basis and conducted by the corresponding planning officers at UPC. Depending on data availability and resources available at UPC data provided varied in detail and a number of assumptions had to be made by Mott MacDonald to complete the data sets. These assumptions are set out by precinct in the following chapter. The precincts used in the enhanced model for the Abu Dhabi metropolitan area are predominantly based on the precinct boundaries set out in Plan Abu Dhabi The precincts as shown in Plan Abu Dhabi 2030 are shown in Figure 2.2 while Figure 2.3 illustrates the precincts as used in the enhanced model for year The only major difference between the two is that for the enhanced model Capital Core, Capital District North and South have been aggregated into a single precinct and an additional precinct has been created for Khalifa City B. Al Ain metropolitan area is represented by a single precinct in the enhanced model and the individual zones that make up this precinct have been based on the precincts in the draft version of Plan Al Ain Figure 2.4 shows the extent of the Al Ain precinct along with the individual zones that form this precinct. Similarly, Figure 2.5 illustrates the zones that form the Al Gharbia (Western Region) precinct. Page 3

6 Figure 2.2: Precincts as per Abu Dhabi Plan 2030 Page 4

7 Figure 2.3: Enhanced Model Precincts - Abu Dhabi Metropolitan Area Page 5

8 Figure 2.4: : Enhanced Model Precincts - Al Ain Page 6

9 Figure 2.5: : Enhanced Model Precincts Al Gharbia (Western ( Region) Page 7

10 3 Assumptions This chapter sets out the main assumptions made when putting together the landuse and socioeconomic data used as input into the Enhance STMP Model. When referring to the original 2030 model or database, the initial database used prior to the review by UPC is meant as described in Chapter Assumptions made for r the individual precincts UPC reviewed the data on a precinct by precinct basis and various assumptions had to be made to complete the data sets depending on data availability. The main assumptions made for the individual precincts are as follows: Abu Dhabi Island Data used as provided by UPC Assumed 0.55 workers per population (based on 2008 model input grand totals) Assumed 0.25 students per population (as requested by UPC) No labour camp residents Housing in TAZ 30 clearly incorrect and changed from 35,982,107 m 2 to 1,000,000 m 2 School in TAZ 216 clearly incorrect and changed from 863,264 m 2 to 86,326 m 2 Values for Category Other from original 2030 database In the original database, several TAZs which currently consist of palaces showed significant residential or other developments for the final year This was deemed to be unrealistic and it was assumed that the landuse in TAZs with palaces in the base year will remain unchanged. In consistency with the 2008 model trips generated by palaces are assumed to be negligible and hence socio-economic and landuse data in these zones is set to zero for the purpose of modelling. The following TAZs are affected: 116, 170, 174, 253, 254, 308, 309, 310, 94, 155, 289. Several zones indicated an unrealistic ratio between Residential and population. These zones were assessed individually and either changes to residential or population were made. The following TAZs were affected: 126, 128, 130, 140, 141, 150, 169, 183, 188, 221, 233, 236, 237, 255, 256, 259, 304, 305, 311, 313, 332, 767, 769, 314, 171, 168, 287, 135, 139, 315. This caused a significant change in the precinct totals previously agreed with UPC and in a final step population related attributes for the whole precinct were factored to match the previous precinct population. Al Falah Data used as provided by UPC Assumed 0.55 workers per population (based on 2008 model input grand totals) Assumed 0.25 students per population (as requested by UPC) Page 8

11 No labour camp residents Assumed 15 m 2 School /student Assumed 1 m 2 Medical /population Assumed 45 m 2 Residential /population where population numbers were provided but residential was not Assumed other identical to 2008 One residential unit is equivalent to one household Precinct re-zoned to correspond with data provided by UPC Airport District Data used as provided by UPC Assumed 0.55 workers per population (based on 2008 model input grand totals) Assumed 0.25 students per population (based on 2008 model input grand totals) No labour camp residents Assumed 15 m 2 School /student Assumed 1 m 2 Medical /population Assumed other identical to 2008 One residential unit is equivalent to one household Precinct re-zoned to correspond with data provided by UPC No of hotel rooms in TAZ 2021 assumed to be incorrect and changed from 20,400 to 300 hotel rooms Al Meena Data from Masterplan distributed to TAZs Assumed 50% of community facilities are schools and remaining 50% hospitals Assumed 2.2 persons per household Assumed 0.55 workers per population (based on 2008 model input grand totals) Assumed 0.25 students per population (as requested by UPC) No labour camp residents No Industry 140 m 2 per hotel room Minor changes to zone boundaries compared to 2008 model Al Raha Data provided by UPC for Al Raha Beach was ambiguous and the data from the original 2030 model has been used. Page 9

12 No data had been provided for Al Raha Gardens and data from the original 2030 model has been used without change. TAZs 777, 932, 933, 934, 948 and 948 (of the original model) were incorrectly allocated to Al Raha precinct. They should have been part of Yas Island which has been completely re-zoned (see below) and these zones have been deleted. Assumed 0.25 students per population (as requested by UPC) Assumed 45 m 2 Residential /population where population numbers were provided but residential was not Al Rahba UPC instructed to use the data from original 2030 model and apply factor for population-related data to match UPC s total population estimate of 25,000 for this precinct. Desert Fingers now treated as separate zones. Zones 728 and 729 now part of Desert Finger instead of Al Rahba. Two new zones: TAZ 2005 and TAZ 2005 was assumed to be 50% of TAZ 537 of the original model and TAZ 2006 was assumed to be 50% of TAZ 722 of the original model. Assumed 0.25 students per population (as requested by UPC) Assumed 45 m 2 Residential /population where population numbers were provided but residential was not or where ratio between population and residential was unrealistic. Al Reef New zone TAZ 2003 to represent the complete precinct. Initially assumed 50% of TAZ 561 from the 2008 model. This lead to unrealistic ratios between residential and population and some changes were made to the population data to match the residential. Al Reem Reem Island has been completely re-zoned. All zones have been deleted and replaced with new TAZs Data used as provided by UPC. Assumed 2.2 persons per household Assumed Office / GLA = 1.28 (based on grand totals for Reem) Assumed Retail / GLA = 1.62 (based on grand totals for Reem) Assumed 0.55 workers per population (based on 2008 model input grand totals) Assumed 0.25 students per population (as requested by UPC) Assumed 1 unit of serviced apartment is equivalent 1 hotel room Nursery and kindergarten treated as School Public Amenities category administration (from data provided by UPC) treated as office Page 10

13 Category Entertainment (from data provided by UPC) treated as Retail Assumed 15 m 2 School /student Assumed 1 m 2 Medical /population Al Shahama Data used as provided by UPC and applied factor to population related attributes in order to match UPC s total population estimate of 110,000 for this precinct. No labour camp residents Two zones added for Coastal Bahia (TAZ 2002) and Shahama East (2001). Both new zones assumed to consist of residential landuse only. Where original population figures had been increased by a flat percentage by UPC the same factor was applied to get updated figures for workers and students based on the original 2030 model data, elsewhere 0.55 workers per population (based on 2008 model input grand totals) and 0.20 students per population were assumed Where no data was provided for housing a value of 80 m 2 per person was assumed. Values for Category Other from original 2030 database Al Suwwah Suwwah Island has been completely re-zoned. All zones have been deleted and replaced with new TAZs 6661, 662 and 663. Retail assumed (90,000 m 2 total) Hotel rooms assumed (4,200 rooms total) Medical assumed (6,000 m 2 total) No labour camp residents No Industry Assumed 3.3 m 2 Other /population Otherwise same assumptions as for Reem Island (see above). Ban Al Jesrain No updated data available, data from original 2030 model used but some zones redistributed to account for the Emerald Gateway development. Assumed 0.25 students per population (as requested by UPC) Assumed 45 m 2 Residential /population where population numbers were provided but residential was not Bani Yas Data used as provided by UPC Assumed 0.55 workers per population (based on 2008 model input grand totals) Page 11

14 Assumed 0.25 students per population (as requested by UPC) No labour camp residents Values for Category Other from original 2030 database Assumed 45 m 2 Residential /population where population numbers were provided but residential was not or where ratio between population and residential was unrealistic. Capital District Grouping of zones into precinct changed to a single precinct for Capital District and one for Khalifa City B. values prior to trip-rate adjustments done as part of Capital City project used Khalifa City B Grouping of zones into precinct changed to a single precinct for Capital District and one for Khalifa City B. values prior to trip-rate adjustments done as part of Capital City project used Assumed 45 m 2 Residential /population where population numbers were provided but residential was not or where ratio between population and residential was unrealistic. This caused a significant change in the precinct totals previously agreed with UPC and in a final step population related attributes for the whole precinct were factored to match the previous precinct population. CBD As agreed with UPC 2008 data was used as basis for the 2030 model input. Only exceptions are TAZs 1, 15, 16, 45, 46 and 95 where data has been provided by UPC based on committed developments. Assumed 0.55 workers per population (based on 2008 model input grand totals). Assumed 0.30 students per population (based on 2008 model input grand totals) The 2008 data included 400 labour camp residents in the CBD. For 2030 it was assumed that there will be no labour camp type households in the CBD. Several zones indicated an unrealistic ratio between Residential and population. These zones were assessed individually and either changes to residential or population were made. The following TAZs were affected: 34, 62, 86, 91, 124, 92, 33, 51, 67, 97. Desert Villages No updated data available, data from original 2030 model used but all population related data factored to match UPC s total population estimate of 35,000. The original 2030 model data indicated a decrease in Office between 2008 and Where this was the case the higher of the two values was used. Assumed 45 m 2 Residential /population where population numbers were provided but residential was not or where ratio between population and residential was unrealistic. Page 12

15 Grand Mosque District Data used as provided by UPC Assumed 0.55 workers per population (based on 2008 model input grand totals) Assumed 0.25 students per population (as requested by UPC) No labour camp residents Values for Category Other from original 2030 database Several zones indicated an unrealistic ratio between Residential and population. These zones were assessed individually and either changes to residential or population were made. The following TAZs were affected: 316, 320, 321, 337, 338, 339, 341, 345, 346. This caused a significant change in the precinct totals previously agreed with UPC and in a final step population related attributes for the whole precinct were factored to match the previous precinct population. Hudayriat at Island TAZs 581, 759 and 760 added to Hudayriat Island precinct New TAZs 2014 and 2015 added. Assumed negligible development in TAZ 2014 and all values for TAZ 2015 assumed based on Plan For TAZs assumed Retail of 2,500 m 2 in each zone, values for all other attributes unchanged from original 2030 database Inner Islands Data from original 2030 database used and scaled down to match values provided in Plan 2030 Assumed 0.55 workers per population (based on 2008 model input grand totals) Assumed 0.25 students per population (as requested by UPC) No labour camp residents No Office No Industry Assumed 15 m 2 School /student Assumed 1 m 2 Medical /population Assumed total Other of 15,000 m 2 Khalifa A Data used as provided by UPC Population related data factored to match UPC s total population estimate of 72,000. Where data was provided without data for the existing built area this was added based on the data from the 2008 model Assumed 3.5 persons per household Assumed 0.55 workers per population (based on 2008 model input grand totals) Page 13

16 Assumed 0.25 students per population (as requested by UPC) Values for Category Other from original 2030 database Assumed 45 m 2 Residential /population where population numbers were provided but residential was not or where ratio between population and residential was unrealistic. Lulu Island Data used as provided by UPC Assumed 0.55 workers per population (based on 2008 model input grand totals) Assumed 0.25 students per population (as requested by UPC) No labour camp residents Values for Category Other from original 2030 database Assumed 45 m 2 Residential /population where population numbers were provided but residential was not or where ratio between population and residential was unrealistic. Mafraq No updated data available, data from original 2030 model used. Assumed 100,000 labour camp residents in TAZ 462 Assumed 0.25 students per population (as requested by UPC) Assumed 45 m 2 Residential /population where population numbers were provided but residential was not or where ratio between population and residential was unrealistic. Marina Village Data used as provided by UPC Data for existing built area added using data from 2008 model Assumed 0.55 workers per population (based on 2008 model input grand totals) Assumed 0.25 students per population (as requested by UPC) Assumed Office / GLA = 1.28 (based on grand totals for Reem) Assumed Retail / GLA = 1.62 (based on grand totals for Reem) No labour camp residents No Industry No School Assumed 1,500 m 2 Medical Assumed Other identical to 2008 Page 14

17 Mohammed bin Zayed Centre C Data used as provided by UPC Where data was provided without data for the existing built area this was added based on the data from the 2008 model Assumed 3 persons per household Assumed 0.70 workers per population Assumed 0.25 students per population Assumed 40 m 2 / person Housing where no Housing had been provided Values for Category Other from original 2030 database Assumed 45 m 2 Residential /population where population numbers were provided but residential was not or where ratio between population and residential was unrealistic. Mohammed bin Zayed City Same assumptions as for Mohammed Bin Zayed Centre (see above) apply Mussafah No updated data available, data from original 2030 model used except the assumptions listed below. Assumed 70,000 labour camp residents in TAZ 463 No Medical Assumed 0.70 workers per population Assumed 0.20 students per population Assumed 40 m 2 / person Housing Population related data factored to match UPC s estimate of 30,000 non labour camp residents All population related data (except labour camps) moved to the zones at the north side of the precinct. Industrial landuses distributed in remaining zones (i.e. those with population related data in it) based on size of the individual zones. New Port City No updated data available, data from original 2030 model used except the assumptions listed below. Two new zones added to account for Desert Finger south of KPIZ: TAZ 2008 and 2011 For TAZ 2008 assumed 20% of TAZ 722 in base year 2008 For TAZ 2011 assumed to have no developments TAZ 2046 added to represent fish-tail shaped area east of Abu Dhabi Dubai road Page 15

18 Assumed 100,000 labour camp residents and 50,000 other residents. All non-labour camp residents allocated to TAZ 2046 Office and Retail and hotel rooms factored to match Plan 2030 Residential calculated based on assumption of 45 m 2 / person Housing Assumed 0.70 workers per population Assumed 0.20 students per population Assumed 3.3m 2 / person School Assumed total Industry of 2,132,000 m 2 Saadiyat Island No updated data available, data from original 2030 model used but applied factor s to match Plan 2030 or UPC estimates for precinct totals. Shamkah Data used as provided by UPC. Same assumptions as for Airport District apply. Yas Island Yas Island has been completely re-zoned so that the zones correspond to the zoning system of the latest data provided by UPC. TAZ numbers used previously in the original 2030 model have been re-assigned to new and different zones. Al Ain Data based on Draft of Al Ain Plan 2030 Assumed 4.4 people / household (based on Al Ain Plan 2030: 742,000 residents - 168,000 residential units) Assumed 0.55 workers per population (based on 2008 model input grand totals) Assumed 0.25 students per population (as requested by UPC) The draft version of Al Ain Plan 2030 shows to different numbers for hotel rooms (4,000 and 6,000 rooms respectively). The higher number has been used for the 2030 database. 500 rooms in Hili / Qattara as per Al Ain Plan Assumed 200 rooms in Hili and 300 in Qattara. 1,500 hotel rooms in Transit Corridor. Assumed 250 each in Al Mutaredh, Al Jimi, Al Khabisi, Al Muwaliji, Al Markhakhaniya and Asharej. No information on Housing is provided in Al Ain Plan Classified the precincts in precincts of low, medium and high density and assumed 30 sqm per person in areas of high density, 40 sqm in areas of medium density and 50 sqm in low density precincts. For precincts where no density information has been provided, medium density has been assumed. School assumed 3.3 m 2 / person (total population). Page 16

19 Social Assumed only central zones (zone 987 and 992) have social-recreational places, and the rate is 2 square meters per person Religious Assumed 0.9 m 2 / person TAZs 979 and 980 assumed double the data in Al Ain Rural based on 2008 data and growth factor of 2 applied to get to Al Gharbia Based on base year (2008) data and growth factors applied to inflate data to 2030 totals provided by UPC. Desert Fingers Desert Fingers north and south of Shahama as well as the Desert Finger between Al Rahba and New Port City are now treated as separate precincts. Several zones had to be amended and new zones had to be edited to achieve this. The Desert Finger south of Shahama is represented by TAZ 560, 561 and 768; the Desert Finger north of Shahama is represented by TAZ 542, 2004 and 2010 and the Desert Finger between Al Rahba and the New Port City is represented by TAZ 722, 726, 728, 729 and Several zones which are part of the Desert Fingers have some development in For 2030 it was assumed that the 2008 developments will remain but no additional developments will happen in these zones. Where ratio between population and residential was unrealistic population related data was assumed to be zero. Ghantoot Data based on information from Ghantoot Development Traffic Impact Study Scope & Methodology document Hotel rooms factored to match Plan 2030 estimate Assumed 2.2 persons / household Assumed 0.55 workers per population (based on 2008 model input grand totals) Assumed 0.25 students per population (as requested by UPC) No labour camp residents No hotel rooms No Medical No Other Assumed rate of 65 m 2 / person to calculate Housing Assumed rate of 3.3 m 2 / person to calculate School Alghadeer UPC provided estimate of population of 20,000 for Alghadeer Page 17

20 Assumed 2.2 persons / household Assumed 0.55 workers per population (based on 2008 model input grand totals) Assumed 0.25 students per population (as requested by UPC) No labour camp residents Assumed 10,000 m 2 Retail No hotel rooms No Medical No Other Assumed rate of 65 m 2 / person to calculate Housing Assumed rate of 3.3 m 2 / person to calculate School Abu Dhabi Rural Mostly based on 2008 landuse data 215,000 labour camp residents in TAZ Labour Camp Residents Only very limited information on the future location of labour camp accommodation is available and for the purpose of the enhanced model the following assumptions were made: Assumed that approximately 500,000 people will live in labour camps in 2030 TAZ 457 (Khalifa City B precinct) 15,000 (data provided by UPC) TAZ 462 (Mafraq precinct) 100,000 TAZ 463 (Mussafah precinct) 70,000 New Port City 100,000 TAZ ,000 (in rural Abu Dhabi area, located in desert south of Mafraq / Mussafah) Page 18

21 4 Summary by Precinct Table 4.1 overleaf summarises the landuse and socio-economic data by precinct. A detailed list of landuse and socio-economic data by TAZ is included in Appendix A. Page 19

22 Table 4.1: Summary of landuse and socio-economic data by precinct Precinct [Name] Abu Dhabi Island Airport District Households Population Workers Students Labour Camp Res. Residential Office Retail Industry Hotel Rooms Medical 77, , , , ,732,915 5,617,636 2,037, , ,904 1,896,108 3,684,227 36, ,950 67,623 30, ,226,916 1,112, , ,512 1, , , ,314 School Other Al Falah 7, ,700 57,035 25, ,251, , , , ,875 7,982 Al Meena 40,455 89,000 48,950 22, ,852,500 74, , ,310 56,030 56, ,060 Al Raha 25, ,252 55,295 32, ,262, , ,552 43,630 1,998 28,176 8, ,476 Al Rahba 3,853 25,000 9,876 6, ,670,023 13,047 46,241 5, , , ,267 Al Reef ,370 8,313 7,792 1, Al Reem 98, , ,468 51, ,336,263 2,877, , , , , ,288 Al Shahama 31, ,000 59,385 27, ,534, , , , ,372 1,333,783 Al Suwwah 13,182 29,000 15,950 7, ,878, ,000 90, ,200 6, ,750 95,700 Ban Al Jesrain 11,049 45,000 11,886 11, ,349, , , ,000 28, , ,881 Bani Yas 12,887 80,000 44,000 20, ,457,036 61, ,452 13, , , ,802 Capital District 106, , ,200 92, ,200,000 5,383, , , ,511 2,144,027 1,861,235 Khalifa City B 17,755 91,299 49,184 22,825 15,000 7,618,303 57,742 60, , , ,769 CBD 69, , ,243 60, ,879,137 4,324,992 1,867, , , , ,437 Desert Villages 5,081 35,000 9,507 8, ,330,008 12,425 64, , , ,712 Page 20

23 Precinct [Name] Households Population Workers Students Labour Camp Res. Residential Office Retail Industry Hotel Rooms Medical School Other Ghantoot 45, ,000 55,000 25, ,500, , , , , , ,000 Grand Mosque District Hudayriat Island 29, ,082 68,795 31, ,242,528 1,876,796 98, ,697 70,701 49,372 4,004,765 20, ,484 50,279 25, ,395, , ,000 56, ,280 Inner Islands 4,287 20,000 11,000 5, ,400, , ,000 75,000 15,000 Khalifa City A 20,571 72,000 39,600 18, ,637, , , , , ,781 Lulu Island 5,845 19,177 10,547 4, ,263, , , ,660 7,360 24,135 90,103 Mafraq 1,177 5,000 1,491 1, , ,000 1, , , ,451 54,831 Marina Village Mohamed Bin Zayed Centre Mohamed Bin Zayed City 1,850 6,423 3,533 1, ,086 64, , , ,572 20,086 60,259 42,181 15, ,993, , , , ,178 64,706 25,915 77,744 54,420 19, ,915,498 65, , ,262 1,000 12, ,788 87,380 Musaffah 7,500 30,000 21,000 6,000 70,000 1,650, , ,346 10,600, , , ,769 New Port City 12,500 50,000 35,000 10, ,000 2,250, , ,000 2,132,000 1,000 16, , ,669 Saadiyat Island 33, ,522 59,152 30, ,348, , , ,687 33,394 36, ,124 Shamkhah 21, , ,050 52, ,212,865 70, ,200 19, , ,660 52,176 Yas Island 40, ,000 55,000 25, ,207, , , , , ,110 61,018 TOTAL (AD Metro) 846,986 3,230,101 1,734, , , ,539,205 25,474,537 10,244,079 15,074,981 69,011 3,005,774 9,297,128 16,668,131 Page 21

24 Precinct [Name] Households Population Workers Students Labour Camp Res. Residential Office Retail Industry Hotel Rooms Medical School Other Al Ain 181, , , , ,988,000 1,021,134 1,094, ,000 6, ,500 2,640,000 1,192,000 Al Ain Rural 39, , ,300 52, ,903, ,144 92,862 29, , , ,013 Al Gharbia 52, , ,851 19, ,948, , ,618 60, , , ,004 Desert Finger 648 4,929 1,831 1, ,409 17,995 41, ,199 10,950 54,154 Other (incl. Abu Dhabi Rural & Alghadeer) TOTAL (outside AD Metro) 10,919 29,861 16,305 6, ,000 1,628,359 62,570 28,497 4, ,554 90, , ,073 1,384, , , ,000 41,630,711 1,971,382 1,706, ,303 6, ,689 3,017,874 2,572,321 TOTAL (AD Emirate) 1,132,059 4,614,943 2,542,295 1,072, , ,169,916 27,445,919 11,950,618 15,770,284 75,436 3,736,462 12,315,003 19,240,451 Page 22

25 5 Comparison with Abu Dhabi Plan 2030 Plan Abu Dhabi 2030 does not contain data on all attributes which are used as input to the model but it does provide information on population, area of office, industry and retail and the number of hotel rooms. The information provided in Plan Abu Dhabi 2030 for year 2030 is summarised in the table below along with the corresponding data used as input to the 2030 transportation model. Table 5.1: : Plan Abu Dhabi 2030 Projections Plan 2030 Population (million) Model 2030 Residential Units 686, ,000 households Office Space (million m 2 ) 7.5 GLA 25.5 Retail Space (million m 2 ) 4.0 GLA 10.2 Industry Space (million m 2 ) Hotel Rooms 74,500 75,400 Schools 650 schools 9.3 million m 2 Hospitals 10,000 beds 3.0 million m 2 Generally, the input data for the transportation model is higher than the values provided in Plan This is in particular the case for office and retail space. Data for schools and hospitals use dissimilar units in Plan 2030 and the model (Number of schools vs. School and number of hospital beds vs. Hospital respectively). Combining the two values results in an average of 14,300m 2 per school and 300m 2 per hospital bed. Both values are rather high, indicating that data from Plan 2030 either underestimates, the model input data overestimates the future situation or both. Main reason for this is probably the fact that the baselines for Plan 2030 and the transportation model show significant dissimilarities with the baseline in Plan 2030 being significantly lower compared to the transportation model. It is important to note that the figures for Office and Retail in Plan 2030 are provided as GLA (Gross Leasable Area) whereas the input to the enhanced model is in the form of (Gross Floor Area). To convert GLA to in most cases a factor of 1.28 was applied to Office GLA and a factor of 1.62 was applied to Retail GLA. These numbers are based on the grand totals for the Reem Island development for which both GLA and values had been provided. Applying these factors to the Plan 2030 estimates shown in Table 5.1 above results in an equivalent of 9.6 million m 2 for Office and 6.48 million m 2 for Retail, both significantly less than the model input. Precincts have been created in Plan 2030 to provide a finer grain of organisation and a variety of projections for 2030 are provided down to precinct level in Plan 2030 as summarised in Table 5.2. Page 23

26 Precinct Table 5.2: : Plan Abu Dhabi 2030 Land Use Projections by Precinct (Year 2030) Population Office (million m 2 ) Retail (million m 2 ) Industrial (million m 2 ) Hotel Rooms Abu Dhabi Island 425, n/a 4,000 Airport District 50, ,000 Al Falah 100, n/a 500 Al Meena 100, n/a 5,000 Al Raha 120, n/a 2,000 Al Rahba 110, n/a n/a Al Reef n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a Al Reem 200, n/a 10,000 Al Shahama 110, n/a n/a Al Suwwah 30, n/a 4,000 Ban Al Jesrain 25, n/a 1,000 Bani Yas 70,000 n/a 0.04 n/a n/a Capital Core 240, n/a 3,000 Capital District North 70, n/a 1,250 Capital District South 55, n/a 1,250 CBD 190, n/a 9,000 6 Desert Villages 110,000 n/a 0.08 n/a n/a Ghantoot District 100, n/a 2,000 Grand Mosque District 120, n/a 3,000 Hudayriat Island 100,000 n/a 0.05 n/a n/a Inner Islands 20,000 n/a 0.01 n/a n/a Khalifa City A 70, n/a 500 Lulu Island 20, n/a 2,000 Mafraq n/a n/a n/a 1.5 n/a Marina Village 5,000 n/a 0.12 n/a 500 Mohamed Bin Zayed Centre 80, n/a 500 Mohamed Bin Zayed City 50,000 n/a n/a n/a 1,000 Musaffah 100,000 n/a 0.01 New Port City 150, (Mussafah) 4.5 (Mussafah South) Capacity will be determined by the emerging supply and demand Saadiyat Island 120, n/a 10,000 n/a 1,000 4 Outside of CBD 5 Al Raha Corridor 6 Abu Dhabi City Centre Page 24

27 Precinct Population Office (million m 2 ) Retail (million m 2 ) Industrial (million m 2 ) Hotel Rooms Shamkhah 130,000 n/a 0.06 n/a n/a Yas Island 100, n/a 8,000 Total 3,170, ,500 Summary Island 1,330,000 4,410,000 m 2 2,240,000 m 2 n/a 47,500 Mainland 1,370,000 2,770,000 m 2 1,380,000 m 2 n/a 24,000 North Coast 470, ,000 m 2 470,000 m 2 n/a 3,000 Total 3,170,00 7,520,000 m 2 4,090,000 m 2 15,000,000 m 2 74,500 n/a = No number provided in Plan Abu Dhabi 2030 Tables 5.3 through 5.6 compare population, Office, Retail and Industry data as provided in Plan 2030 with the model input for the Abu Dhabi Metropolitan area, i.e. the area covered by Plan Abu Dhabi Page 25

28 Precinct Table 5.3: : Comparison by Precinct Population Enhanced Model Plan 2030 Abu Dhabi Island 407, ,000 Airport District 122,950 50,000 Al Falah 103, ,000 Al Meena 89, ,000 Al Raha 129, ,000 Al Rahba 25, ,000 Al Reef 53 n/a Al Reem 204, ,000 Al Shahama 110, ,000 Al Suwwah 29,000 30,000 Ban Al Jesrain 45,000 25,000 Bani Yas 80,000 70,000 Capital District (cannot be compared directly due to changed precinct boundaries) 370, ,000 Khalifa City B 91,299 n/a CBD 288, ,000 Desert Villages 35, ,000 Ghantoot 100, ,000 Grand Mosque District 125, ,000 Hudayriat Island 101, ,000 Inner Islands 20,000 20,000 Khalifa City A 72,000 70,000 Lulu Island 19,177 20,000 Mafraq 5,000 n/a Marina Village 6,423 5,000 Mohamed Bin Zayed Centre 60,259 80,000 Mohamed Bin Zayed City 77,744 50,000 Musaffah 30, ,000 New Port City 50, ,000 Saadiyat Island 120, ,000 Shamkhah 211, ,000 Yas Island 100, ,000 Total (Abu Dhabi Metropolitan Area) 3,230,101 3,170,000 Note: Enhanced model population shown above does not include labour camp residents of for Khalifa City B (15,000), Mafraq (100,000), Mussafah (70,000) and New Port City (100,000). Page 26

29 Precinct Table 5.4: : Land Use Comparison by Precinct Office (million m 2 ) Enhanced Model Plan 2030 Abu Dhabi Island Airport District Al Falah Al Meena Al Raha Al Rahba Al Reef 0.01 n/a Al Reem Al Shahama Al Suwwah Ban Al Jesrain GLA Bani Yas 0.06 n/a Capital District (cannot be compared directly due to changed precinct boundaries) Khalifa City B 0.06 n/a CBD Desert Villages 0.01 n/a Ghantoot Grand Mosque District Hudayriat Island 0.00 n/a Inner Islands 0.00 n/a Khalifa City A Lulu Island Mafraq 0.00 n/a Marina Village 0.06 n/a Mohamed Bin Zayed Centre Mohamed Bin Zayed City 0.07 n/a Musaffah 0.11 n/a New Port City Saadiyat Island Shamkhah 0.07 n/a Yas Island Total (Abu Dhabi Metropolitan Area) Page 27

30 Precinct Table 5.5: : Land Use Comparison by Precinct Retail (million m 2 ) Enhanced Model () Plan 2030 (GLA) Abu Dhabi Island Airport District Al Falah Al Meena Al Raha Al Rahba Al Reef 0.01 n/a Al Reem Al Shahama Al Suwwah Ban Al Jesrain Bani Yas Capital District (cannot be compared directly due to changed precinct boundaries) Khalifa City B 0.06 n/a CBD Desert Villages Ghantoot Grand Mosque District Hudayriat Island Inner Islands Khalifa City A Lulu Island Mafraq 0.00 n/a Marina Village Mohamed Bin Zayed Centre Mohamed Bin Zayed City 0.10 n/a Musaffah New Port City Saadiyat Island Shamkhah Yas Island Total (Abu Dhabi Metropolitan Area) Page 28

31 Precinct Table 5.6: : Land Use Comparison by Precinct Industry (million lion m 2 ) Enhanced Model () Plan 2030 () Abu Dhabi Island 0.00 n/a Airport District Al Falah 0.00 n/a Al Meena 0.00 n/a Al Raha 0.04 n/a Al Rahba 0.01 n/a Al Reef 0.00 n/a Al Reem 0.00 n/a Al Shahama 0.00 n/a Al Suwwah 0.00 n/a Ban Al Jesrain 0.00 n/a Bani Yas 0.01 n/a Capital District (cannot be compared directly due to changed precinct boundaries) 0.00 n/a Khalifa City B 0.00 n/a CBD 0.00 n/a Desert Villages 0.00 n/a Ghantoot 0.00 n/a Grand Mosque District 0.00 n/a Hudayriat Island 0.00 n/a Inner Islands 0.00 n/a Khalifa City A 0.00 n/a Lulu Island 0.00 n/a Mafraq Marina Village 0.00 n/a Mohamed Bin Zayed Centre 0.00 n/a Mohamed Bin Zayed City 0.76 n/a Musaffah (Mussafah) 4.5 (Mussafah South) New Port City 2.13 n/a Saadiyat Island 0.00 n/a Shamkhah 0.02 n/a Yas Island 0.00 n/a Total (Abu Dhabi Metropolitan Area) Page 29

32 Appendix A Landuse and Socio-Economic Data by Traffic Analysis Zone (TAZ) for Year 2030 Page 30