BRUNEI ECONOMIC BULLETIN

Transcription

1 BRUNEI ECONOMIC BULLETIN Volume 3, Issue 2 Date : 9/24 THE EDITOR BRUNEI ECONOMIC BULLETIN (BEB) JPKE (DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMIC PLANNING AND DEVELOPMENT) PRIME MINISTER S OFFICE Inside this issue: BRUNEI DARUSSALAM SECOND QUARTER 24 ECONOMIC REVIEW & OUTLOOK AND RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS Gross Domestic Product THE EDITOR: BRUNEI ECONOMIC BULLETIN (BEB) JPKE (DEPARTMENT OF ECO- NOMIC PLANNING AND DEVELOP- MENT) PRIME MINISTER'S OFFICE Phone: Fax: info@jpke.gov.bn BEB Panel of Advisors Permanent Secretary Prime Minister s Office Director General JPKE, Deputy Director Generals JPKE BEB Editors Directors, JPKE Assistant Directors, JPKE BEB Contributors Hj Abd Razak Hj Angas Abd Amin Hashim Shahrom Hj Suhaimi Hj Mazlan Hj Mohd Salleh Mashor POKID Dato Paduka Hj Musa Shamsul Bahrin Hj Mohd Hussain Dk Hjh Siti Nirmala Pg Hj Mohammad Zureidah Hj Abit Pg Metussin Pg Hj Tuah Hj Joharry Hj Karim Hjh Aisah Hj Sani Hjh Norfatiniwati Hj Muhammad BEB Publishers Noor Jusmin Hj Abd Samad Hairol Nizam Hj Abd Hamid Brunei Darussalam s economy for this quarter is estimated to contract by 2.8 per cent from BND 1,172.9 in Q1 24 to BND 1,14.2 in Q2 24. Compared to the same quarter last year, it is also estimated to contract by 1.1 per cent (Chart 1.1). The oil and gas sector has registered contraction of 5.4 per cent in Q2 24 year-on-year. It also contracted by 5.8 per cent in Q2 24 compared to Q1 24. The average weighted oil production decreased by 3.8 per cent from 29,79 barrels per day in Q2 23 to 21,738 barrels per day in Q2 24 (Table 1.1). The average weighted LNG production also dropped by 8.8 per cent from 1,42,283.9 MMBtu 1 per day in Q2 23 to 95,639.1 MMBtu per day in Q2 24 (Table 1.2). The oil and gas sector in the first half of 24 declined by 2.9 per cent compared to the same period last year. Table 1.1: Oil Production Unit Barrels/Day JAN 27,29 215,2 27, ,223 FEB 191,472 24,55 199,52 211,55 MAC 197,79 21,23 26,61 197,933 APR 179, ,88 21, ,929 MAY 169, ,561 25,183 21,172 JUN 186,537 23, , ,13 JUL 194,38 24,15 25,119 AUG 193,54 216,474 23,128 SEP 193, ,335 21,727 OCT 188, , ,564 NOV 213, , ,29 DEC 224,91 27, ,788 Crude Oil Production for the year 195,65 23,21 27,24 Average Crude Oil Production Q1 Average Crude Oil Production Q2 Average Crude Oil Production Q3 Average Crude Oil Production Q4 Average Crude Oil Production 1H Average Crude Oil Production 2H 1 Million British Thermal Unit 199,69 27,13 24,83 27, , ,532 29,79 21, ,725 24,45 26,277 28,828 26,85 28,63 188,751 2,738 27,311 21,276 25,268 27,17 Source: Petroleum Unit, Prime Minister s Office Brunei Darussalam Second Quarter Economic Review and Outlook Crude Oil Price Index Statistical Data (Q2, 24) GDP Growth (Provisional Estimate) : -2.8 % Change in CPI :.6% Total Exports (f.o.b): BND 1,274.4 million (April-May) Total Import (c.i.f): BND million (April-May) Government Revenue : BND 1,357.6 million Government Expenditure : BND 9.8 million 1 13 Economic Outlook 14 8th National Development Plan Short-Term Economic Recovery THE LONG TERM OBJEC- TIVES OF BRUNEI DA- RUSSALAM S DEVELOP- MENT PLAN OF : What has been the level of achievement in enhancing the quality of life? JPKE List of Publications 29 Miscellaneous 29

2 P AGE 2 BRUNEI DARUSSALAM Q2 24 ECONOMIC REVIEW & OUTLOOK AND RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS Table 1.2: LNG Production Unit - MMBtu/Day JAN 1,33, ,46,388. 1,118,431. 1,117,753.6 FEB 962,6. 1,95,799. 1,112,133. 1,73,981. MAC 1,141, ,443. 1,165,771. 1,63,286.8 APR 864, ,836. 1,37,552. 1,126, MAY 682, ,569. 1,2, ,19.35 JUN 96, ,497. 1,88, ,134. JUL 838,649. 1,61,756. 1,5,631. AUG 936,35. 1,61, ,691. SEP 1,23, , ,991.7 OCT 1,48,142. 1,62, ,31.7 NOV 976,54. 1,37,44. 1,38,77. DEC 1,146,837. 1,59,582. 1,62,29. LNG Production for the Year 968, ,84. 1,49,143. Average LNG Production Q1 1,48, ,42,49.4 1,132, ,85,249.5 Average LNG Production Q2 834, , ,42, ,639.1 Average LNG Production Q3 931, ,35,6.1 99,426.5 Average LNG Production Q4 1,58,49.4 1,53, ,31,13.2 Average LNG Production 1H 94, , ,87,28.5 1,17, Average LNG Production 2H 994, ,44, ,11,5.5 Source: Petroleum Unit, Prime Minister's Office Table 1.3: Oil and Gas Production Index JAN FEB MAC APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Average Index for the Year Average Index for Q Average Index for Q Average Index for Q Average Index for Q Average Index for H Average Index for H Base year 2=1 Source: Petroleum Unit, Prime Minister s Office Table 1.4: Agricultural Sector Crop Production Q2 3 Q1 4 Q2 4 growth (%) (Q-O-Q) growth (%) (Y-O-Y) Vegetables (Tons) 2, ,23. 3, Fruits (Tons) (3.6) (3.6) Ornamental horticulture (trees) 55, , ,966. (23.6) 1.8 Cut Flowers (unit) 29, , , Various Plantations (Tons) Livestock Production Buffaloes (Tons) (4.5) BRUNEI ECONOMIC BULLETIN The oil and gas production index (OGPI) contracted by 5.4 per cent from 19.2 in Q2 23 to 13.3 in Q2 24. On a quarteron-quarter basis the OGPI also contracted by 5.8 per cent from 19.7 in Q1 24 (Table 1.3). The price of crude oil averaged at US$38.2 per barrel in Q2 24 compared to US$27.33 per barrel a year ago and US$35.59 in Q1 24. Meanwhile, the price of LNG averaged at US$4.71 per MMBtu compared to US$4.7 per MMBtu a year ago and US$4.67 in Q1 24. The overall non-oil and gas sector is estimated to expand by 3.9 per cent in Q2 24 compared to the same period last year. Compared to Q1 24, it is estimated to grow marginally by.4 per cent. The year-on-year growth was supported by improvement in forestry; mining; quarrying and manufacturing; wholesale and retail; and transport and communication sectors. Activities in the agricultural sector are estimated to register a 1.4 per cent growth in Q2 24 compared to the same period a year ago. This was due to the increase in the production of vegetables; ornamental horticulture (trees); cut flowers; various plantations; and chicken eggs (Table 1.4). On a quarter-on quarter basis, this sector is also estimated to grow by 5.3 per cent in Q2 24. The forestry sector grew at an estimated rate of 21. per cent in Q2 24 year-on-year. Compared to Q1 24, it registered a 17.8 percent growth. The production of round timber increased by 32.3 per cent from 25.1 thousands cubic metres in Q2 23 to 33.2 thousands cubic metres in Q2 24 (Table 1.5). Compared to Q1 24, it registered an increase of 5.4 per cent from 31.5 thousands cubic metres. The production of bakau poles also increased by 14.9 per cent from 28.2 thousand pieces in Q2 23 to 32.4 thousand pieces in Q2 24. Compared to Q1 24, it increased by 26.6 per cent, from 25.6 thousand pieces during that quarter. Activities in the fishery sector are estimated to decline by 22.8 per cent compared to the same period last year. Compared to Q1 24, this sector also registered a decrease of 6.1 per cent. The largest downward effect was from the production of the capture industry. The production dropped by 24.8 per cent from 4,242.8 metric tonnes in Q2 23 to 3,192. metric tonnes in Q2 24 and on quarter on quarter basis the production dropped by 57.1 per cent from 7,44.6 metric tonnes in Q1 24 (Table 1.6). Chart 1.1: Growth of Gross Domestic Product Year-on-year Cattle (Tons) (9.3) (25.) Goats (Tons) Broiler Chicken (Tons) 4, ,242. 3,967. (6.5) (4.8) Chicken Eggs (Millions) Fresh Milk (Litres) 22, , ,9. (26.3) Source: Agricultural Department Table 1.5: Forestry Sector Q2 3 Q1 4 Q2 4 growth (%) growth (%) (Q-O-Q) (Y-O-Y) Round Timber (' Cubic Metres) Bakau Poles (Thousand Pieces) Source: Forestry Department % Q1 3 Q2 3 Q3 3 Q4 3 Q1 4 Q2 4 Total Oil Non-oil

3 BRUNEI ECONOMIC BULLETIN P AGE 3 BRUNEI DARUSSALAM Q2 24 ECONOMIC REVIEW & OUTLOOK AND RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS Table 1.6: Fishery Sector Capture Industry (Metric Tonnes) Q2 3 Q1 4 Q2 4 growth (%) (Q-O-Q) growth (%) (Y-O-Y) 4, , ,192. (57.1) (24.77) Commercial 1, (13.94) Small Scale Fishermen 3, , , (65.82) (28.18) Aquaculture Industry (Metric Tonnes) Fish Prawn Fresh Water Fish (1.16) 2.94 Total Production 4, , , (55.87) (23.11) Source: Fishery Department Table 1.7: Mining/Quarrying/Manufacturing Sector Cement Production (Tonnes) Sawn Timber Production (Thousands cubic metre) Fish Processing Production (Tonnes) Charcoals Production (thousand Kg) Q2 3 Q1 4 Q2 4 growth (%) (Q-O-Q) growth (%) (Y-O-Y) 57, , , (1.1) Cable Production (Kg) 158, , , Roofing Production (Tonnes) Switchboard Production (Unit) Reverse-Osmosis Water Production (thousand litres) Source: Department of Economic Planning & Development % (16.8) (23.) 1, (21.4) Chart 1.2: Hotel Occupancy Rate Q1 3 Q2 3 Q3 3 Q4 3 Q1 4 Q2 4 Chart 1.3: Growth Rate of Communication Sector % Q1 3 Q2 3 Q3 3 Q4 3 Q1 4 Q2 4 Chart 1.4: Seaborne Cargo Handled The mining, quarrying and manufacturing sector registered an estimated growth rate of 8.6 per cent in Q2 24 compared to Q2 23 due to the increase in production of cement, sawn timber, charcoals, reverse osmosis water, cable and bricks. On a quarter-on-quarter basis this sector grew by an estimated 4.1 per cent compared to Q1 24 (Table 1.7). The construction sector has shown improvement year-on-year and registered an estimated 5.7 per cent growth in Q2 24. It is also estimated to expand by 7.4 per cent compared with the previous quarter. The wholesale and retail trade sector posted an estimated 8.5 growth in Q2 24 compared to Q2 23. Compared with the previous quarter, this sector is estimated to have expanded by 6.1 per cent. Survey on selected major wholesale companies registered a 4.6 per cent growth in the value of sales in Q2 24 year-on-year. On a quarter-on-quarter basis the value of sales also increased by 3.8 per cent. Meanwhile, survey on selected major retail companies registered a 14.4 per cent increased in the value of sales in Q2 24 year-on-year. Likewise, on a quarter-on-quarter basis the value of retail sales rose by 8.4 per cent. The restaurants and hotels sector is estimated to contract by 5.4 per cent in Q2 24 compared to the same period last year. Compared with the previous quarter, it is estimated to have contracted by 1.5 per cent. The hotels occupancy rates have dropped by 7.7 per cent from 31. per cent in Q2 23 to 28.6 per cent in Q2 24 (Chart 1.2). However, on a quarter-onquarter basis the rates have increased by 1.3 per cent compared to Q1 24. Meanwhile, the value of sales from the selected major restaurants declined by 3.1 per cent compared to Q2 23. On quarter-on-quarter basis the value of sales also dropped by 4.2 per cent. The transport and communication sector grew at an estimated 17.1 per cent in Q2 24 compared to a year ago. Compared with the previous quarter, this sector is estimated to have expanded by 5.4 per cent. The improved year-on-year growth was mainly attributed to better performance in the communication sector (Chart 1.3). The volume of cargo handled also increased by 33.1 per cent in Q2 24 compared to a year ago (Chart 1.4). The banking and finance sector registered a contraction of 7. per cent in Q2 24 compared to Q2 23. However, compared to Q1 24 it grew by 3.8 per cent. Total interest income from loans and advances stood at BND 17. million in Q2 24 compared to BND 115. million and BND million collected in Q2 23 and Q1 24 respectively (Chart 1.5). The insurance sector is estimated to register a contraction of.4 per cent in Q2 24 compared to the same period a year earlier. However, compared to Q1 24, it expanded by 26.8 per cent. Chart 1.5: Banks Loans and Advances 13 5, 12 5 freight tonnes 4, 3, 2, 1, Q1 3 Q2 3 Q3 3 Q4 3 Q1 4 Q2 4 BNDmillion Q1 3 Q2 3 Q3 3 Q4 3 Q1 4 Q2 4

4 P AGE 4 BRUNEI ECONOMIC BULLETIN BRUNEI DARUSSALAM Q2 24 ECONOMIC REVIEW & OUTLOOK AND RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS Table 2.1 : Consumer Price Index Q2 23, Q1 and Q2 24 I Commodity Group Weight Q2 3 Source: Department of Economic Planning & Development Jan- June 3 Q1 4 Q2 4 Jan- June 4 All 1, Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages II Clothing & Footwear III IV Housing, Water, Electricity & Maintenance Household Goods & Operations V Transport VI Communication VII Education VIII Medical & Health IX X Recreation & Entertainment Miscellaneous Goods & Services Table 2.2: Consumer Price Index April-June 24 Commodity Group Weight 24 April May June All 1, I Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages II Clothing & Footwear III Housing, Water, Electricity & Maintenance IV Household Goods, Services & Operations V Transport VI Communication VII Education VIII Medical & Health IX Recreation & Entertainment X Miscellaneous Goods & Services Chart 2.1: CPI Percentage Changes Between Q2 24 and Q Consumer Price Index The average Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the second quarter of 24 was 11.3, an increase of.6 per cent from 1.7 in Q1 24 (Table 2.1. The CPI for April, May and June 23 stood at 11.3, 11.3 and 11.2 respectively (Table 2.2). The CPI for January to June 24 increased by.4 per cent compared to that of 1.6 in the same period last year. The average CPI for the second quarter 24 compared to the same period last year recorded a marginal increase of.7 per cent from 1.6 to CPI Changes for the Q2 24 relative to Q1 of 24 The average CPI for Q2 24 rose by.6 per cent compared to Q1 24 due to the hike seen in Major Group indices of Recreation & Entertainment by 4.6 per cent; Food & Non- Alcoholic Beverages by.7 per cent; and Housing, Water, Electricity & Maintenance by.4 per cent. The Recreation & Entertainment index increased by 4.6 per cent due to higher price of Holiday Package Expenses which rose by 7. per cent. The increase in the price of Fresh Chicken by 13.2 per cent contributed to the increase in the Major Group Index of Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages by.7 per cent. The Major Group Index of Transport rose by.4 per cent as a result of an increase in the Purchase of Vehicles Index by 2.4 per cent. The Housing, Water, Electricity & Maintenance index rose to.4 per cent due to the increase in Accommodation price by 1. per cent. The largest downward effect on the CPI for this quarter came from Clothing and Footwear (Chart 2.1). This was due to the decline in the sub-group indices of Ready-Made Clothing Accessories by 1.2 per cent; Materials for Male/Female by 3. per cent; Wedding Dress, Accessories and Rental by 2.1 per cent; Tailoring Charges by 1.5 per cent; and Footwear by 1.2 per cent. Food & Non Alcoholic Beverages Clothing & Footwear Housing, Water, Electricity & M aintenance Household Goods, Services & Operat ions Transport Communicat ion Educat ion M edical & Health Recreation & Entertainment M iscellaneous Goods & Services CPI Changes for the Q2 of 24 relative to the same period in 23 The average CPI for Q2 24 increased by.7 per cent compared to 1.6 in the same period last year (Table 2.1). The Recreation & Entertainment Index advanced by 8.3 per cent which accounted for half of the increase in the overall CPI. The Major Group Indices of Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages also increased by 1.7 per cent; Transport by 1.4 per cent; Education by.5 per cent; and Miscellaneous Goods and Services by.7 per cent respectively. The Recreation & Entertainment Index witnessed a sharp increase of 8.3 per cent when compared to the same period last year. This was mainly due to a 12.8 per cent rise in the price of Holiday Package Expenses which was a consequence of the increase in prices of Umrah Package which coincide with school holidays. The increase in prices of Beef (Cattle), Fresh and Frozen; and Fresh Chicken by 22.7 per cent and 17.8 per cent respectively

5 BRUNEI ECONOMIC BULLETIN P AGE 5 BRUNEI DARUSSALAM Q2 24 ECONOMIC REVIEW & OUTLOOK AND RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS Chart 2.2: CPI Percentage Changes Between Q2 24 and Q2 23 Food & Non Alcoholic Beverages 1.7 Clothing & Footwear -3.5 Housing, Water, Electricity & M aintenance Household Goods, Services & Operations Transport Communication Education Medical & Health Recreation & Entertainment Miscellaneous Goods & Services Chart 2.3: CPI Percentage Changes for the period of January- June 24 relative to the same period in 23 Food & Non Alcoholic Beverages.9 Index Clothing & Footwear Housing, Water, Electricity & M aintenance Household Goods, Services & Operations Transport Communication Education M edical & Health Recreation & Entertainment M iscellaneous Goods & Services Consumer Pric e Index 22=1 (Jan-June 24) accounted for the largest upward movement of the Major Group Index of Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages. The Miscellaneous Goods and Services index rose by.7 per cent as a result of increases in sub-group indices of personal care by.4 per cent and Personal Effects and Other Personal Goods by 4.4 per cent. The largest downward influence was from the Household Goods and Operations Index (Chart 2.2). The index dropped by 5.4 per cent as a result of decreases in the prices of Furniture (11.9 per cent); Floor Covering (8.2 per cent); Household Furnishings (.2 per cent); Audio, Video Equipments, Musical Instruments (4.5 per cent); Household Equipments and Electrical Appliances (7.1 per cent); Kitchen Appliances and Utensils (7.6 per cent); Crockery and Cutlery (6.8 per cent); Household Operation (.7 per cent); and Other Household Services (.4 per cent). CPI Changes for the period January-June 24/23 The.4 per cent increase in the CPI was brought about by the increase observed in Major Group indices of Food and Non- Alcoholic Beverages by.9 per cent; Transport (1.9 per cent); Recreation and Entertainment (5.8 per cent); and Miscellaneous Goods and Services (1. per cent) (Chart 2.3). The.9 per cent increase in the index for Food and Non- Alcoholic Beverages was the result of increases in the subgroup indices of Meat and Meat Products (9.3 per cent); Dairy Products and Eggs (5.6 per cent); Cooking Oils and Fats (7.2 per cent); Vegetables (1.5 per cent); Sugar, Sugar Preserves and Confectionery (3.6 per cent); Coffee, Tea and Cocoa (.6 per cent; and Food/Drink Away From Home (.2 per cent). The Transportation index rose by 1.9 per cent reflecting an increase in the price of Private Road Transport by 1.9 per cent and Air Transport by 3.3 per cent. The Major Group Index of Recreation and Entertainment increased by 5.8 per cent due to the soaring prices of Holiday Package Expenses which rose by 9.8 per cent. The Miscellaneous Goods and Services index was up by 1. per cent due to the increases in sub-group indices of Personal Care; and Personal Effects and Other Personal Goods by.8 per cent and 5.4 per cent respectively. The largest downward effect was from the Major Group Index of Household Goods & Operation (Chart 2.3). The price dipped by 4.7 per cent as a result of decreases in the price of Furniture (1.2 per cent); Floor Covering (4.9 per cent); Audio, Video Equipments, Musical Instruments (4.4 per cent); Household Equipments and Electrical Appliances (7. per cent); Kitchen Appliances and Utensils (7.8 per cent); Crockery and Cutlery (6.5 per cent); and Household Operation (.2 per cent) Jan Feb March Apr May June

6 P AGE 6 BRUNEI ECONOMIC BULLETIN BRUNEI DARUSSALAM Q2 24 ECONOMIC REVIEW & OUTLOOK AND RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS Table 3.1:GOVERNMENT FINANCE (BND MILLION) Q1 24 Q2 24 Q2 23 Total Revenues 1,398. 1, ,225.4 Tax Non-tax Total Expenditure 1, Current 1, Capital Budget Surplus/ (Deficit) (31.5) Source: Treasury Department, Ministry of Finance Table 3.2: GOVERNMENT REVENUE & EXPENDITURE (BND MIL- LION) Q1 24 Q2 24 Q2 23 Total Revenue 1,398. 1, ,225.4 Tax revenue Taxes on net income and profits Corporate taxes Oil & Gas production companies Other companies Individuals (estate duty)...4 Stamp Taxes on international trade Import duties Motor vehicles tax Tobacco Others Taxes on goods and services Licences Financial companies.1.1. Others Non-tax revenue Property income Oil sector Oil & Gas Royalties Dividend paid by oil companies Other Other royalties Rent and interest Others Administrative fees and charges on sales of goods and fines Telecom & utilities Other Other non-tax revenue Total Expenditure 1, Current 1, Wages & Salaries OCAR Charged Capital OCSE Development Expenditure * 82.9 Investment in Public Enterprise NA NA 18. Budget Surplus/ Deficit (31.5) Source: Treasury Department, Ministry of Finance (includes latest entries for the Quarter) * Provisional NA - Not Available Fiscal Sector Fiscal Position In Q2 24, the Government revenue of BND 1,357.6 million exceeded its expenditure of BND 9.8 million, which resulted in a budget surplus of BND million compared to BND million during the same quarter last year (Table 3.1). The budget surplus in Q2 24 was primarily due to the decrease in government expenditure, when compared to the government finance in Q1 24. Government Revenue The total revenue fell by 2.9 percent from BND 1,398. million in Q1 24 to BND 1,357.6 million in Q2 24. However, it was BND million (1.8 percent) higher compared to BND 1,225.3 million collected in Q2 23. As shown in Table 3.2, in Q2 24, 53.5 percent of the total revenue collected was in the form of tax revenue and only 46.5 percent was from non-tax sources. The former comprises of taxes on net income and profits, taxes on international trade, and taxes on goods and services, which decreased from BND million in Q1 24 to BND million in Q2 24. The decrease was mainly due to the drop in oil and gas corporate taxes, from BND million in Q1 24 to BND million in Q2 24. The increase in corporate taxes by 43.8 percent from other companies was not enough to compensate for the decrease in the oil and gas corporate taxes. Nevertheless, the tax collected in Q2 24 was BND 86.2 million higher than the amount collected in the same quarter last year. The non-tax revenue, which consists of property income, administrative fees and charges on sales of goods and fines including telecommunication and utilities, and others, recorded an increase of BND 57.4 million from BND million in Q1 24 to BND 63.7 million in Q2 24. The Q2 24 figure was also an increase of 7.9 per cent (BND 46. million) compared to that in Q2 23. The increase was mainly due to the increase in the dividends paid by the oil and gas companies, as shown in Table 3.2. This figure increased by 36.4 percent from BND million in Q1 24 to BND million in Q2 24; and by 15.9 percent compared to that of Q2 23. Government Expenditure The government expenditure, which comprises current and capital expenditures (CAPEX), decreased by 37. percent from BND 1,429.5 million in Q1 24 to BND 9.8 million in Q2 24 (Table 3.2). This was due to the decline in both current and capital expenditures over the period from BND 1,22.5 million and BND 227. million in Q1 24 to BND million and BND million in Q2 24 respectively. Of the total current expenditure during this quarter, 43.7 percent was for personnel emoluments (Wages & Salaries). CAPEX, which includes Other Charges Special Expenditure (OCSE) and Development Expenditure (DE), decreased by 41.7 percent compared to that recorded in Q1 24. Compared to Q2 23, CAPEX recorded a decrease of BND 72.6 million (-35.4 percent) from BND 24.9 million. However, the DE increased by 13.9 percent from BND 7.4 million in Q1 24 to BND 8.2 million in Q2 24, but dropped slightly by 3.3 percent from the same quarter last year. The

7 BRUNEI ECONOMIC BULLETIN P AGE 7 BRUNEI DARUSSALAM Q2 24 ECONOMIC REVIEW & OUTLOOK AND RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS 12 Chart 4.1 Money Supply OCSE recorded a decrease of 66.7 percent from BND million in Q1 24 to BND 52.1 million in Q2 24. Compared to Q2 last year, OCSE also fell by half, from BND 14.1 million. 1 BND million June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay June Month CIC M1 Qm M2 Monetary Sector Money Supply As shown in Chart 4.1, the domestic narrow money (M1) expansions increased by 1.8 percent, from BND2,481.3 million in March 24 to BND2,525.2 million in June 24. This expansion was affected by an increase in M1 components where currency in circulation increased by.9 percent from BND656.2 million to BND662. million and demand deposits increased by 2.1 percent from BND1,825.1 million to BND1,863.2 million. Within the same period, broad money (M2) increased marginally by 2.6 percent from BND1,856.7 million to BND11,135.4 million due to the increase in quasi money. Fixed deposit increased by 3.3 percent from BND5,639.4 million in March 24 to BND5,827.1 million in June 24 and savings and others (current deposits and call money) increased by 1.7 percent from BND2,736 million in March 24 to BND2,783.1 million in June 24. On a yearon-year basis, broad money increased by only 9.7 percent from BND1,15.2 million in June 23 to BND11,135.4 million in June 24. Assets and Liabilities TABLE 4.1 Assets and Liabilities Assets and Liabilities in the banking system are shown in Table 4.1. The commercial banks total assets and liabilities increased by 6.6 percent from BND13,69 million in March 24 to BND14,594 million in June 24. This was due to an increase in domestic and foreign deposits with banks and other assets. Domestic and foreign deposits increased by 12.3 percent from BND6,272 million in March 24 to BND7,45 million in June 24. Similarly, loans and advances increased by.8 percent, from BND5,392 million to BND5,437 million and other assets also increased by 8.8 percent from BND99 million to BND989 million. Liabilities in the banking system also increased where deposits rose by 2.7 percent from BND1,21 million to BND1,473 million. This was due to increases in demand deposits by 2 percent from BND1,825 million to BND1,863 million, time deposits by 3.3 percent Assets / Liabilities June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Assets 12,925 12,218 12,81 12,9 12,683 12,798 13, ,69 13,514 13,391 14,594 Cash Due from bank : 5,97 5,225 4,979 5,737 5,58 5,557 6,24 5,738 5,715 6,272 6,11 5,92 7,45 in BD 1, , ,151 1,15 1,48 1,488 outside BD 4,87 4, , , , ,121 5,5 4,872 5,557 Loans and Advances 5,259 5, , , , ,392 5,373 5,385 5,437 Investment Other assets Liabilities 12,925 12,218 12,81 12,9 12,683 12,798 13, ,69 13,515 13,39 14,593 Deposits 9,54 9,255 9,313 9,768 9,659 9,825 1, ,21 1,75 9,973 1,473 Demand 1,971 1, , , ,825 1,686 1,739 1,863 Time 4,998 4, , , ,64 5,629 5,445 5,827 Saving 2,535 2, , , ,736 2,76 2,789 2,783 Due to bank 1,541 1, ,24 1,111 1,23 1, ,538 1,445 1,4 2,6 in BD 1, , ,444 1,354 1,36 1,937 outside BD Other liabilities 1, ,951 1,995 2,17 2,6 Source: Financial Institution Division, Ministry of Finance

8 P AGE 8 BRUNEI ECONOMIC BULLETIN BRUNEI DARUSSALAM Q2 24 ECONOMIC REVIEW & OUTLOOK AND RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS TABLE 4.2 Direction of Lending Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Total Agriculture Credit & Finance Manufacturing Transportation Construction General Commerce Professional Services Personal Loans Mortgage Source: Financial Institution Division, Ministry of Finance Chart 4.2 Non-Performing Loans Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun Month 6-9 days days >12 days Tot al Source: Financial Institution Division, Ministry of Finance BND Million from BND5,64 million to BND5,827 million and savings by 1.7 percent from BND2,736 million to BND2,783 million during the same period. Other liabilities increased by 5.6 percent from BND1,951 million to BND2,6 million. On a year on year basis, the banking assets and liabilities rose by 12.9 percent from BND12,925 million in June 23 to BND14,594 million in June 24. Lending Lending aggregates, as shown in Table 4.2, rose by only.9 percent from BND5,391 million in March 24 to BND5,438 million in June 24. The main contributor to the increase was Personal Loan which comprised 66.6 percent (BND 3,621) of the total loans recorded in June 24. Loans to Construction, General Commerce and Mortgage contributed 8.9 percent (BND484 million), 8.6 percent (BND476 million), and 8.46 percent (BND46 million), respectively. Lower contributions from Agriculture (.6 percent), Credit and Finance (.5 percent), Manufacturing (1.67 percent), Professional Services (.8 percent) and Transportation (3.7 percent) were also recorded As also observed in the first quarter, loan aggregates was still dominated by Personal Loans. In comparison, the share of loans to productive sectors such as Agriculture and Manufacturing to total loans was still minimal, when combined, represented only 2.3 percent of total. Compared to lending direction in the first quarter s, loans to several economic sectors were down by almost 25 percent on average. Loans to Agriculture dropped by 19.5 percent from BND41 million to BND33 million. Similarly loans to Mortgage decreased by 2.1 percent from BND47 million to BND46 million while loans to Professional Services decreased by 54.3 percent from BND94 million to BND43 million. However, loans to other sectors have recorded increases. Substantial increase was observed for loans to Credit and Finance which increased by 28.6 percent from BND21 million to BND27 million. Loans to Construction increased by 7.6 percent from BND45 million to BND484 million while loans to General Commerce rose by 2.4 percent from BND465 million to BND476 million. Loans to Manufacturing increased marginally by 1.1 percent from BND9 million to BND91 million while Personal Loans rose by 1.5 percent from BND3,567 million to BND3,621 million. Loans to Transportation grew by 5.2 percent from BND193 million to BND23 million. Non-Performing Loans Non-performing loans (NPLs) declined further owing to the favourable economic conditions (the growth in non-oil GDP by 3.9 per cent). Preliminary information in Chart 4.2, showed that NPLs based on 6-month classification moderated to BND7.63 million in June 24, down from BND14.88 million in March 24. NPLs based on 3-month classification fell to BND25.9 million, down from BND29.9 million. Improvements in the level of NPLs were also due to lower incidence of new NPLs and write-offs of bad loans coupled with strong recoveries and reclassification of NPLs to performing loans. Non-performing loans aggregates decreased by 1. percent from BND million in March 24 to BND million in June 24. On a year-on-year basis, NPLs decreased by 7.5 percent from BND million in June 23. The ratio of the NPL

9 BRUNEI ECONOMIC BULLETIN P AGE 9 BRUNEI DARUSSALAM Q2 24 ECONOMIC REVIEW & OUTLOOK AND RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS % Chart 4.3 Deposit Rates in Brunei Darussalam Banking System Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun to loans aggregates decreased by.3 percentage points from 12.1 percent in March 24 to 11.8 percent in June 24 and decreased on a year-on-year basis by 4.1 percentage points from 15.9 percent in June 23 to 11.8 percent in June 24. Although the decrease in the NPL was a positive sign to the banking system, the NPL was still a cause of concern and there was a need for greater domestic economic improvement and other financial tools to address the situation. On a positive note, the financial strength of the domestic banking system as a whole is still adequate to provide liquidity to finance real output expansions. Interest and Exchange Rates Source: Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation CHART 5.1: BRUNEI DARUSSALAM EXPORT, IMPORT & BALANCE OF TRADE, APRIL-MAY 23 & APRIL- MAY 24 BND Million 1, April 23 April 24 May 23 May 24 Total Exports Total Imports Total Trade Balance of Trade CHART 5.2: BRUNEI DARUSSALAM EXPORT, IMPORT & BALANCE OF TRADE, JANUARY-MAY 24 BND Million Total Exports Total Imports Total Trade Balance of Trade Jan 24 Feb 24 Mar 24 Apr 24 May The interest rates in the Brunei Darussalam banking system had declined continuously over the past five years through the end of 23, apparently squeezed by a combination of regulatory and market pressure. Surprisingly the prime lending rates remained unchanged at 5.5 percent per annum since September 2. Deposits rates (Chart 4.3) were also unchanged as in last quarter of 23 at.225 percent,.25 percent and.3375 percent for the 3, 6 and 12-month deposits respectively. Savings deposit rates varied according to the amounts deposited. There is no interest for deposits of less than BND The interest rates of.5 percent is specified for deposits of between BND5 and BND99, and.1 percent for deposits of BND1,. and above. Singapore s lending rates of 5.3 percent also remained constant since the last quarter of 23. The 3, 6 and 12-month deposits were still unchanged at.41 percent,.52 percent and.71 percent respectively. Similarly, the highest negotiated Singapore s savings deposit rates of.23 percent remained unchanged. Generally, the rates offered by banks in Singapore were more attractive for various investments than those offered by the domestic banking system. From January 24 to June 24, the Brunei Dollar depreciated against the US dollar from to on average and from 1.72 to at end of period. Based on past trend, the US dollar is expected to weaken and forecasted to prevail at 1.58 against the Brunei Dollar at the end of the year. Conclusion The growth momentum of the monetary sector as a whole were dependent on the progress in the domestic economic developments and activities and the indirect impact of the exchange rate volatility affecting demand and supply of domestic trades. External Sector Total and Balance of Trade In April 24, the total trade was BND million which was an increase of 5.4 per cent from BND 81.2 million in April 23. However in May 24, there was a slight reduction in total trade by.2 per cent from BND million in May 23 to BND million. Similarly, total trade decreased by 3.4 per cent between April and May 24. A trade surplus of BND million was recorded in April 24 which was 27.2 per cent higher than April 23 figure of BND million. In May 24, a trade surplus was also recorded which was.7 per cent higher from BND million in May 23 to BND million. However, there was reductions in trade surplus by 9.5 per cent between April and May 24 (Chart 5.1). Both the total trade and trade surplus showed downward trend for the period between January to May 24 (Chart 5.2).

10 P AGE 1 BRUNEI ECONOMIC BULLETIN BRUNEI DARUSSALAM Q2 24 ECONOMIC REVIEW & OUTLOOK AND RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS CHART 5.3: EXPORTS BY MAJOR COMMODITY, JAN-MAY 24 April 23 BND Million April 24 May 23 May 24 Apr '3 & Apr '4 % Change May '3 & May '4 Apr '4 & May '4 Oil and Gas (2.7) Petroleum LNG (21.8) (26.2) Non-Oil & Gas (36.4) (32.) Garment (41.2) (14.8) Machinery & Transport Equipment (14.1) (52.2) Others (49.9) (16.5) Total Exports BND Million Jan '4 Feb '4 Mar '4 Apr '4 May '4 Total Exports Oil and Gas Non-Oil & Gas TABLE 5.1: EXPORTS BY MAJOR COMMODITY, APRIL-MAY 23 AND APRIL-MAY (5.6) BND Million Exports The total exports in April 24 increased by 12.2 per cent from BND 584. million in April 23 to BND million. In May 24, total exports were BND 619. million which was an increase of.2 per cent from BND million in May 23. However there were reduction in total exports by 5.6 per cent between April and May 24. Exports in April and May 24 were still dominated by oil and gas which contributed 9.2 per cent and 92.9 per cent of total exports respectively. With respect to the trend of total exports for the period between January and May 24, it showed some correlation with the Oil and Gas exports since Oil and Gas were the major exports for Brunei Darussalam (Chart 5.3). Oil and Gas exports in April 24 were BND million which was an increase of 8.5 per cent from BND 545. million in April 23. Oil and Gas exports in May 24 also increased by 4.8 per cent from BND million in May 23 to BND million. However Oil and Gas exports decreased by 5.6 per cent in May 24 on a month-month basis. Petroleum exports (crude and condensate) in May 24 was BND million which was 25.6 per cent higher compared to May 23. The increase was due to higher oil price which recorded average oil price per barrel of US$39.4 in May 24 compared to US$27.18 in May 23. Similarly, the petroleum exports increased by 11.6 per cent in April 24 from the same month of 23 as a result of higher oil price which recorded average oil price per barrel of US$37.23 in April 24 compared to US$27.69 in April 23. On month on month basis, petroleum exports increased by 15.1 per cent in May 24. The LNG exports in April 24 was BND million. This was an increase of 4.6 per cent compared to BND million in April 23. In contrast to April 24, the LNG exports decreased by 21.8 per cent from BND 24.6 million in May 23 to BND million in May 24. Similarly, the LNG exports decreased by 26.2 per cent between April and May 24. The decrease was due to lower LNG production for exports which recorded only 98, MMBtu/day in May 24 compared to 1,36,79. MMBtu/day in May 23. The average LNG price for April and May 24 were US$4.68 per MMBtu and US$4.74 per MMBtu respectively. The Non-Oil and Gas exports in April 24 were BND 64.2 million. This was indeed an increase of 64.4 per cent from BND 39. million in April 23. The increase was mainly due to higher exports of Machinery & Transport Equipment in April 24 of BND 29.1 million which was an increase of per cent from BND 11.4 million in April 23. In May 24, Non-Oil and Gas exports decreased by 36.4 per cent from BND 68.7 million in May 23 to BND 43.7 million. This was mainly due to lower exports of Garment in May 24 of BND 23.4 million which was a decrease of 41.2 per cent from BND 39.7 million in May 23. Similarly, Non-Oil and Gas exports decreased by 32. per cent in May 24 on a month-month basis. The decrease was mainly due to lower exports of Machinery & Transport Equipment by 52.2 per cent in May 24 (Table 5.1).

11 BRUNEI ECONOMIC BULLETIN BRUNEI DARUSSALAM Q2 24 ECONOMIC REVIEW & OUTLOOK AND RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS P AGE 11 AUSTRALIA 12.7% CHINA KOREA 9.7% OTHERS 26.9% 8.3% AUSTRALIA 6.% CHART 5.4: EXPORT MARKET IN APRIL 24 CHINA.% OTHERS 1.8 % JAPAN 44.4% CHART 5.5: EXPORT MARKET IN MAY 24 KOREA 13.9% ASEAN 9.9% ASEAN 22.4% JAPAN 35.% TABLE 5.2: EXPORT MARKET FOR APRIL-MAY 23 AND APRIL-MAY 24 April 23 BND Million April 24 May 23 May 24 Apr '3 & Apr '4 % Change May '3 & May '4 Apr '4 & May '4 ASEAN (3.) (6.9) (58.1) JAPAN (19.) (25.6) KOREA AUSTRA- LIA (27.4) (55.6) CHINA (99.4) ,356.7 OTHERS TOTAL EXPORTS (5.6) TABLE 5.3: IMPORTS BY COMMODITY, APRIL-MAY 23 AND APRIL-MAY 24 BND Million % Change April '3 April '4 May '3 May '4 Apr '3 & Apr '4 May '3 & May '4 Apr '4 & May '4 Food & live animals (22.4) Beverages & tobacco (28.3) Crude material inedible (63.5) (2.4) (29.2) Mineral fuels (23.5) (.5) 17.8 Animal & vegetable oils and fats (3.4) (8.6) 1. Chemicals (.8) 1.2 Manufactured goods (14.) (18.4) (1.4) Machinery & transport equipments (13.2) Miscellaneous manufactured articles (13.5) Miscellaneous transactions and commodities, n.e.cmanufactured articles (48.5) (41.8) Total imports (c.i.f) (13.1) (.8) 4.2 With respect to the destination of exports, in April 24, 44.4 per cent of the total exports were to Japan, followed by ASEAN countries (22.4 per cent), Australia (12.7 per cent) and Korea (9.7 per cent) (Chart 5.4). Compared to April 23, Brunei s exports to Australia, Korea and Japan in April 24 increased by 59.7 per cent, 3.6 per cent and 21.8 per cent respectively. Exports to China and ASEAN countries declined by 99.4 per cent and 3. per cent respectively. The huge decrease of Brunei Darussalam s exports to China was due to no Petroleum exports in April 24. In May 24, Japan remained the dominant exports market which accounted for 35. per cent of total exports, followed by Korea (13.9 per cent), ASEAN countries (9.9 per cent), China (8.3 per cent) and Australia (6. per cent) (Chart 5.5). Compared to May 23, Brunei s exports to Korea and China in May 24 increased by 87.4 per cent and 7.6 per cent respectively. Exports to ASEAN countries, Australia and Japan declined by 6.9 per cent, 27.4 per cent and 19. per cent respectively. In comparison to April 24, Brunei Darussalam s exports in May 24 to Korea increased by 36. per cent from BND 63.3 million to BND 86.1 million. There was also a significant increase in exports to China from BND 187,492 in April 24 to BND 51,479,48 in May 24 due to exports of mineral fuels recorded at BND 51,476,41 in May 24. However, there were reductions in exports to ASEAN Countries, Australia and Japan by 58.1 per cent, 55.6 per cent and 25.6 per cent respectively (Table 5.2). Imports In April 24, total imports were BND million, which was a decrease of 13.1 per cent compared to April 23 imports of BND million. The decrease in imports was due to the decline in the imports of Crude Material Inedible by 63.5 per cent, Mineral Fuels (23.5 per cent), Food & Live Animals (22.4 per cent), Manufactured Goods (14. per cent), Miscellaneous Manufactures Articles (13.5 per cent), Machinery & Transport Equipment (13.2 per cent) and Animal & Vegetable Oils and Fats (3.4 per cent). Such decreases were moderated by the increases in Beverages & Tobacco by 49.9 per cent, Miscellaneous Transactions and Commodities (24.6 per cent) and Chemicals (1.2 per cent). In May 24, total imports decreased slightly by.8 per cent from BND million in May 23 to BND million due to the reduction in the imports of Miscellaneous Transactions and Commodities by 48.5 per cent, Crude Material Inedible (2.4 per cent), Manufactured Goods (18.4 per cent), Animal & Vegetables Oils & Fats (8.6 per cent), Chemicals (.8 per cent) and Mineral Fuels (.5 per cent). The increases in Food & Live Animals by 34.3 per cent, Beverages & Tobacco (19.1 per cent), Miscellaneous Manufactured Articles (8.7 per cent) and Machinery & Transport Equipment (.4 per cent) were insufficient to offset the total reduction in imports. On the contrary, total imports increased by 4.2 per cent in May 24 on a month-on-month basis due mainly to high imports of Food & Live Animals by 35.5 per cent and also imports of Machinery & Transport Equipment by 12. per cent in May 24 (Table 5.3).

12 P AGE 12 BRUNEI DARUSSALAM Q2 24 ECONOMIC REVIEW & OUTLOOK AND RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS BRUNEI ECONOMIC BULLETIN CHART 5.6: TOTAL IMPORTS, JANUARY-MAY BND Million CHART 5.7: MAJOR COMMODITY IMPORTS IN APRIL 24 M iscellaneous manufactured articles 1.9% Machinery & transport equipments 32.4% Others 6.1% Food & live animals 12.4% Chemicals 8.7% M anufactured goods 29.5% CHART 5.8: MAJOR COMMODITY IMPORTS IN MAY 24 M iscellaneous manufactured articles 1.5% Machinery & transport equipments 34.9% 1 % 8% 6% 4% 2% % Others 4.6% Trend Line Jan 24 Feb 24 M ac 24 Apr 24 M ay 24 Total Imports Food & live animals 16.1% Chemicals 8.5% M anufactured goods 25.4% CHART 5.9: ORIGIN OF IMPORTS, APRIL-MAY 23 AND APRIL-MAY 24 BND M illion April '3 April '4 May '3 May '4 ASEAN EU JAPAN USA CHINA HONG KONG AUSTRALIA OTHERS Total imports showed a downward trend for the period between January and May 24 (Chart 5.6). The high total imports in February 24 was due to high imports of Machinery & Transport Equipment from the European Union. In April 24, Machinery and Transport Equipment constituted 32.4 per cent of total imports, followed by Manufactured Goods (29.5 per cent), Food & live animals (12.4 per cent), Miscellaneous Manufactured Articles (1.9 per cent) and Chemicals (8.7 per cent) (Chart 5.7). In May 24, Machinery and Transport Equipment remained the major imports commodity which accounted for 34.9 per cent of total imports, followed by Manufactured Goods (25.4 per cent), Food & live animals (16.1 per cent), Miscellaneous Manufactured Articles (1.5 per cent) and Chemicals (8.5 per cent) (Chart 5.8). With regards to the origin of imports, in April 24, 48.9 per cent of total imports were from ASEAN countries, followed by the USA (1.8 per cent), Japan (9.5 per cent), the European Union (9.3 per cent), Hong Kong (5.9 per cent), China (5.4 per cent) and Australia (2.1 per cent) (Chart 5.9). Compared to April 23, Brunei Darussalam s imports in April 24 from Australia, the USA, Japan, Hong Kong, ASEAN countries, China and the European Union decreased by 37. per cent, 3.1 per cent, 24.1 per cent, 2.2 per cent, 11.7 per cent, 2.6 per cent and 1. per cent respectively. In May 24, ASEAN countries remained the main source of imports which accounted for 47.4 per cent of total imports, followed by the USA (12.1 per cent), Japan (11. per cent), the European Union (8.7 per cent), China (6.2 per cent), Hong Kong (5.2 per cent) and Australia (3.4 per cent). In comparison to May 23, Brunei Darussalam s imports in May 24 from China increased by 42.5 per cent, followed by the USA (33.2 per cent), Australia (9.9 per cent), Japan (9.6 per cent) and Hong Kong (5.2 per cent). However, imports from the European Union and ASEAN countries declined by 29.9 per cent and 6.3 per cent respectively. Compared to April 24, Brunei Darussalam s May 24 imports from Australia increased by 72.7 per cent, followed by Japan (2.6 per cent), China (19. per cent), the USA (16. per cent) and ASEAN countries (1. per cent). However, imports from Hong Kong and the European Union declined by 8.2 per cent and 2.6 per cent respectively (Table 5.4). TABLE 5.4: ORIGIN OF IMPORTS, APRIL-MAY 23 AND APRIL-MAY 24 BND Million April '3 April '4 May '3 May '4 April '3 & April '4 % Change May '3 & May '4 April '4 & May '4 ASEAN (11.7) (6.3) 1. EU (1.) (29.9) (2.6) JAPAN (24.1) USA (3.1) CHINA (2.6) HONG KONG (2.2) 5.2 (8.2) AUSTRALIA (37.) OTHERS (4.7) (22.5) TOTAL IMPORTS (13.1) (.8) 4.2