RESPs IN NEW BRUNSWICK AND THE POTENTIAL IMPACT OF A PROVINCIAL INCENTIVE TO IMPROVE ACCESS TO POST-SECONDARY EDUCATION

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1 RESPs IN NEW BRUNSWICK AND THE POTENTIAL IMPACT OF A PROVINCIAL INCENTIVE TO IMPROVE ACCESS TO POST-SECONDARY EDUCATION Study by : MAURICE BEAUDIN, PhD University of Moncton, Shippagan Campus JEAN-BERNARD ROBICHAUD, PhD December 2017

2 Table of contents Background 3 RESPs and Federal Grants 5 RESPs in Canada and New Brunswick? 11 New Brunswick and the Canada Learning Bond (CLB) 17 Student Debt in Canada and New Brunswick 19 Education and Literacy in New Brunswick 22 Employment Trends and New Brunswick s Economy 25 Conclusion 32 Appendix

3 Background NEW BRUNSWICK The parallels between economic prosperity and workforce quality have been well established. Countries and regions that can draw on a diverse pool of skills are more productive and better able to adapt to cyclical economic change. This requires a well-educated workforce and a high level of literacy overall. Not only does a post-secondary education improve employability for young people, but it also helps spur productivity and GDP, while fostering civic engagement. New Brunswick is no exception to the rule. Like anywhere else, businesses, community organizations and institutions need workers with solid basic training that lets them be productive in the job market while developing autonomy, ownership and the ability to adapt to changing labor market demands and conditions. But young people also need to be able to finance their post-secondary education without taking on excessive debt. In New Brunswick, the university participation rate of 18- to 24-year-olds has declined over the past decade, from 20.3% in to 18.3% in This decline cannot be linked solely to rising university costs, which for New Brunswick universities were estimated at approximately $17,000 per student per year in , or nearly $70,000 for a four-year bachelor s degree. 2 There are a number of other factors underlying these trends, including access to public/private funding, family income, parental education, tighter conditions for access to employment, and the labor market outlook. University education participation rate age % % Estimated costs for university studies student/year $17,000 (1) This is the university participation rate within the home province, according to MPHEC statistics. (2) Estimated average annual per-student university costs include tuition ($6,000) for full-time enrolment in a bachelor of science or social science and administration program, incidentals ($500), and food and housing ($6,000). 3

4 UNIVERSITAS FOUNDATION, an incorporated non-profit organization accredited by the New Brunswick Securities Commission, has concerns about the current state of RESPs in New Brunswick and believes the province is not taking advantage of federal grant money to encourage families to save for their children s post-secondary education, which is why the Foundation commissioned this academic study. The objective of the study is to analyze relevant data and draw conclusions that support or refute the hypothesis hereunder. Hypothesis: an education savings incentive in New Brunswick would have multiple benefits. If parents were saving more money in RESPs to support their children s post-secondary education: 4 1 There would be more federal grants 2 Youth participation rates in post-secondary education would remain steady or even increase 3 The graduation rate would likely improve 4 The use of student loans, and accordingly, the burden of student debt after graduation, would decrease 5 Young graduates would gain more buying power, allowing them to participate in the economy more rapidly and boost the provincial GDP 8 Together, these benefits would relieve some of the pressure on public spending and help increase government revenue through taxes 6 A higher quality workforce would help revitalize the job market 9 The general standard of living would likely improve 7 At the provincial level, average incomes would tend to increase and unemployment for the 24-to-35 age bracket would tend to decrease

5 RESPs and Federal Grants Education savings plans have existed since the early 1960s. The federal government allowed these plans to be registered beginning in 1972, making them a tax-sheltered way to save for post-secondary education. According to the Canada Education Savings Program (CESP): An RESP is a contract between a subscriber and a promoter that has been accepted for registration by the Minister of National Revenue [...] The subscriber names one or more beneficiaries and may make personal contributions to the RESP. Personal contributions made to an RESP may qualify for CESG if the beneficiary meets the eligibility requirements. The personal contributions remain the property of the subscriber. The maximum lifespan of an RESP is 35 years, or 40 years for beneficiaries entitled to a disability tax credit. Since 2007, there has been no annual personal contribution limit, but the lifetime personal contribution limit is $50,000 for each beneficiary. 3 (3) Employment and Social Development Canada, Annual Statistical Review 2015: Canada Education Savings Program, ESDC Catalog no.: LC F, 2016, 44 p. 5

6 There are three federal grants affiliated with RESPs: Offered since 1998, the Basic Canada Education Savings Grant (CESG) is a contribution to an RESP paid by the government. Initially, it was 20% of the first $2,000 in annual contributions, but the limit was increased to $2,500 in The contribution is available to all beneficiaries regardless of family income. Unused Basic CESG room can be carried forward to subsequent years. 20% of the first $2,500 in annual contributions CESG In 2005, the government introduced the Additional CESG to encourage middle- and low-income families to save through RESPs. Beneficiaries from middleincome families ($46,605 to $93,208) are eligible for an additional 10% for the first $500 saved annually. The additional contribution is 20% for the first $500 saved for beneficiaries from low-income families (up to $46,605). Unused Additional CESG room cannot be carried forward to subsequent years. 10% of the first $500 in annual contributions Additional CESG In 2005, the federal government introduced the Canada Learning Bond (CLB), available in RESPs for children from low-income families (up to $46,605) born on or after January 1, Families are not required to make annual personal contributions to be eligible for the CLB. In June 2016, a 10-year cap was placed on requests for retroactive payment of the Canada Child Benefit or National Child Benefit Supplement (CCB or NCBS). This may affect the CLB payment in some cases. The government pays an initial $500 and then $100 per year for as long as a child is eligible, i.e., up to age 15. This represents a maximum grant of $2,000 for post-secondary education, regardless of how much parents contribute during the eligibility period. initial $500 payment + $100 per year CLB 6

7 The CESG has proven to be a popular incentive, as indicated in the two figures below. In the year following the introduction of the CESG, between 1998 and 1999, annual contributions went up 75% and the number of contributors 48%. Introduction of the CESG clearly had an immediate and significant impact. In 2004, the Canadian government introduced an incentive for low-income families, the Additional CESG, to boost the Basic CESG. The number of new Additional CESG beneficiaries went from 32,000 in 2005 to 138,000 in , a clear measure of the appeal this type of incentive holds [see Figure 1]. The share of CESG beneficiaries receiving the Additional CESG went from 13.7% in 2005 to 47.1% in By 2015, 5,740,000 young adults had benefited from the CESG since its introduction by the Canadian government in While the cumulative number of beneficiaries did not go up significantly between 1972 and 1998, it has risen steadily since 1998, crossing the 5 million mark in 2014 and reaching 5.7 million in At the same time, the participation rate (number of beneficiaries as a percentage of the number of eligible beneficiaries under 18) went from 9.7% in 1998 to 29.8% in 2004 (before the Additional CESG was introduced), and hit 51.1% in As the literature increasingly demonstrates, the earlier parents start saving for their children s education, the more they help reduce the debt burden once children are in school and the more aware young people seem to be of the importance of a university education. This is especially true for low- and modest-income families, since they can take advantage of additional federal RESP grants and, in some cases, provincial incentives to save for their children s post-secondary education. TABLE 1 Cumulative number of beneficiaries in receipt of the Basic and Additional CESG (in thousands) Canada, Year years old years old Total No. of beneficiaries Source: CESP data Beneficiaries receiving the Additional CESG % % (4) According to the 2016 CESP Annual Review, p

8 FIGURE 1 Number of new beneficiaries in receipt of the Basic and Additional CESG for the first time, and annual CESG participation rate, Canada, (in thousands) 698 Nouv New Basic bénéficiaires CESG Beneficiaries de la SCEE de base 70,0 600 Nouv New Additional bénéficiaires CESG de Beneficiaries la SCEE suppl Taux CESG de Participation part (%) à Rate la SCEE (%): Axis (axe on de Right droite) Side 60, , , , ,1 25, , , , ,4 34, , , ,7 47,3 45,7 43,8 41, , , ,0 40,0 30,0 20,0 10, ,0 Source: CESP data; compilation by M. Beaudin. Canada Education Savings Grant (CESG) payments are directly linked to personal RESP contributions. As we saw, these contributions took off after the CESG was introduced in CESG payments also grew rapidly, from $151 million in 1998 to $884 million in 2016 [see Figure 2]. On average, CESG payments also saw a marked increase from 1998 to 2003, going from $216 to $1,889 per beneficiary up 805%. Even in real terms, the average in 2003 was seven times that of While the growth rate of CESG payments per beneficiary has slowed somewhat since then, it has still steadily increased, topping the $3,000 mark in Marked increase of CESG payments $216 to $1,889 per beneficiary UP 805% 8

9 FIGURE 2 Annual amount of CESG payments ($ millions) and average payment ($) per beneficiary Canada, $1 000 ($ millions) $3 250 $900 $800 $700 $600 Paiements Annual CESG annuels Payments SCEE (millions ($ millions) de $) Paiement Average CESG SCEE moyen Payment $ ($) (axe Axis de droite) on Right Side $579 $604 $628 $680 $717 $755 $793 $821 $859 $884 $3 000 $2 750 $2 500 $2 250 $2 000 $1 750 $500 $400 $300 $200 $291 $318 $348 $370 $389 $426 $470 $514 $1 500 $1 250 $1 000 $750 $500 $100 $151 $250 $ $0 Source: CESP data; compilation by M. Beaudin. THREE PROVINCES OFFER PROVINCIAL INCENTIVES British Columbia, Saskatchewan and Quebec [see Figure 3]. Do these incentives have an effect? Findings show that provincial incentives do have an impact on education savings. British Columbia is one of the best-performing provinces and receives the most federal funding. The most compelling case is that of Quebec: between 1998 and 2008 the province fell well below the national average, even below New Brunswick. Starting in 2007, the year the provincial incentive was introduced, the trend was reversed and the province moved toward the national average. Between 2007 and 2016, the Quebec beneficiary participation rate went from 29.8% to 50.1% a dramatic gain in only eight years. Annual CESG payments went from $88 million in Quebec in 2007 to $168 million in 2016, an eye-opening 91% increase. Over the same period, CESG payments went from $86 million to $126 million in British Columbia (+46.5%) and from $15 million to $24 million in Saskatchewan (+60%). In other provinces, CESG payments rose 45% over the period, except in New Brunswick, where they only went up 30%. 9

10 FIGURE 3 CESG participation rate in the three provinces with provincial incentives Vs. New Brunswick s participation rate, where there is no incentive, ,0 BC 50,0 45,0 CAN QC NB 40,0 SASK 35,0 30,0 25,0 20,0 15,0 10, Col-Brit BC 22,2 25,8 29,2 31,6 34,1 36,1 38,4 40,8 42,7 44,2 45,8 47,7 49,4 51,5 52,9 54,1 55,3 Can 19,8 23,1 25,9 27,9 29,8 31,8 34,1 36,4 38,4 40,1 41,9 43,8 45,7 47,3 48,7 50,2 51,1 QC Qué 14,3 17,2 19,7 21,5 23,4 25,2 27,4 29,8 31,9 33,9 36,0 38,5 41,0 43,2 45,5 47,9 50,1 NB N-B 18,5 21,7 24,4 26,6 28,8 31,0 33,4 35,4 37,3 38,7 40,0 40,8 41,8 42,6 43,5 44,1 44,2 Sask 17,7 20,6 23,0 24,6 26,4 28,1 29,8 31,1 32,0 32,6 33,3 34,3 35,2 36,1 36,8 37,8 38,8 Source : CESP data; compilation by M. Beaudin 10

11 The state of RESPs in Canada and New Brunswick 5 Canadian families are saving more and more through RESPs. As a result, the total value of RESP assets went from $4 billion in 1998 to $51 billion in These assets increased by $4.43 billion in 2016 alone. Families are also investing even earlier: the current average age of new RESP beneficiaries is 3.6, versus age 8 in The number of RESP subscribers passed the one million mark in 1999, reaching 2 million in 2007 and over 2.9 million in FIGURE 4 Annual RESP contributions and number of subscribers Canada, $4,50 $4,00 $3,50 $3,00 Nbre de cotisants (axe de droite) No. of Contributors Axis on Right Side En In milliards billions of constant de $ constants $ (2016) de 2016 En In milliards billions of current de $ $ courants $2,96 $2,80 $3,15 $4,33 $4,43 $4,12 $4,20 $4,27 $3,97 $4,10 $3,79 $3,84 $3,94 $3,57 $3,76 $3,45 $3,50 $3,59 $3,44 $3,11 $3,18 $3, $2,50 $2,17 $2,30 $2,46 $2,56 $2,60 $2,28 $2,47 $2, $2,00 $1,50 $1,24 $1,57 $1,71 $1,87 $1,99 $2, $1,00 $0, $0, Source: CESP (Employment and Social Development Canada) and Statistics Canada data for the CPI; compilation by of M. Beaudin. (5) What follows is summarized in an appended table showing how New Brunswick stacks up against the Canadian average. 11

12 FIGURE 5 Value of RESP assets and PSE withdrawals Canada, $50,0 $40,0 Retraits Withdrawals en milliards in billions de $ courants of current $ Actifs Assets en milliards in billions de of $ constant de 2016 $ (2016) Actifs Assets en milliards in billions de of $ courants current $ $40,5 $44,4 $47,0 $51,3 $5,0 $4,0 $30,0 $20,0 $10,0 $0,0 $3,56 $35,6 $3,27 $31,6 $3,07 $2,77 $27,6 $25,9 $2,44 $23,4 $22,6 $2,15 $21,3 $1,95 $18,0 $1,57 $15,2 $1,34 $1,44 $12,6 $1,10 $10,0 $0,84 $7,2 $8,2 $0,64 $5,6 $0,45 $4,0 $0,24 $0,00 $0,01 $0,05 $0, $3,0 $2,0 $1,0 $0,0 Sources: : CESP Annual data; compilation Statistical Review by M. Beaudin for assets and data obtained from ESDC (CESP division) for withdrawals. Withdrawals consist of EAPs (educational assistance payments) and PSEs (withdrawals for post-secondary education). Data compiled by Maurice Beaudin. Withdrawals are even outstripping assets. In 2003, the year before the Additional CESG and CLB were introduced, the ratio of withdrawals to assets was 3.6%, but jumped to 4.2% the year they were introduced. The ratio continued to grow, reaching nearly 7% in This suggests that parents are not only saving more for their children s post-secondary education, but that there are more and more funds available to young people in school. Andrew Parkin made the same observation, stating that [...] withdrawals from RESPs have become an increasingly important source of funding for post-secondary education. According to the latest CESP report, Canadians withdrew a total of $3.56 billion in 2016 to help cover post-secondary education costs for 419,611 beneficiaries. The average withdrawal value was $8,487. RESP withdrawals for beneficiaries from middle- and low-income families who had received both the Basic and Additional CESG reached $710 million. Nearly 86,500 students were affected, for an average withdrawal of $8,207. (6) Parkin, Andrew, A million Canadian kids missing out on free education money, op.cit, page 3. 12

13 Research shows that, over the past 10 to 15 years, New Brunswick has made progress on several fronts, including enrolment (new subscribers) and assets in RESPs, as well as access for New Brunswick s youth to the Basic Canada Education Savings Grant (Basic CESG) and the Canada Learning Bond (CLB) for low-income families. However, and as evidenced in the tables and figures that follow, New Brunswick is struggling to keep pace with RESPs at the national level, in terms of both participation and benefits, particularly those arising from federal grants (CESG and CLB). Three variables are key to understanding the state of education savings in New Brunswick: 1 The population of 0- to 17-year-olds theoretically eligible for RESPs is 134,410 according to 2016 census data, or 1.94% of the total population of this age bracket in Canada. 2 The number of RESP beneficiaries in New Brunswick is estimated at 64,363 (according to the 2013 parent survey), or 47.8% of the potentially eligible population (aged 0-17 years). Opening an RESP gives access to various federal grants. 3 The average annual personal contribution per beneficiary to an RESP in New Brunswick was $1,189 in 2016 the lowest in the country for eight years running. Meanwhile, the average Canadian contribution was $1,513 in 2016, a difference of $324 or 21.4%.. TABLE 2 Average annual RESP contribution by province (current $) Province Can=100 BC ,3 Ontario ,4 Alberta ,4 Sask ,2 PEI ,5 Nova Scotia ,2 Quebec ,5 Manitoba ,6 NF & Labr ,7 NB ,6 NB % of Can. 68,7 74,0 72,6 72,8 71,9 71,9 72,7 73,9 74,9 76,6 76,4 78,1 78,6 Canada ,0 Source : CESP data; compilation by M. Beaudin. 13

14 In our report, we analyzed various data on a comparative and chronological basis, which explains the scope of these findings. New Brunswick lags behind the nation in many areas and is even the lowest-ranking province in some. For instance, the average value of RESP assets in New Brunswick is about 78% of the national average 7, and the province ranks lowest in the country with an average RESP of about $8,000. TABLE 3 Number of children with RESPs and total RESP assets by province 2012 Children with savings Children with RESP value End of 2012 for PSE 1 an RESP 2 Tot. value (billions $) 3 Can share (%) Avg. val. ($) Can avg. (%) Canada NL & Labrador , ,7 PEI , ,2 Nova Scotia , ,1 New Brunswick , ,8 Quebec , ,8 Ontario , ,5 Manitoba , ,3 Saskatchewan , ,9 Alberta , ,2 British Columbia , ,8 1. Estimated number based on percentage of children with PSE savings. 2. Estimated from the number of children with PSE savings who have an RESP. 3. Estimate based on the number of children with an RESP and the average RESP value as provided by the survey. Source : Survey of Approaches to Educational Planning, CANSIM ; compilation by M. Beaudin. RESP assets in New Brunswick are 22% below the Canadian average, and 53% of children (70,047 individuals) are not RESP beneficiaries, which means they do not benefit from federal grants. Although we do not have RESP asset data at the provincial level, we do have information on annual Canada Education Savings Grant (CESG) payments. Nationwide, CESG payments rose 45% over the period, while in New Brunswick they went up only 30%, from $8.6 million to $11.2 million. If federal CESG payments were in line with the demographic weight of New Brunswick children, they would have hit about $17.2 million a shortfall of nearly $6 million for 2016 alone. (7) Data on RESP assets in New Brunswick is taken from Statistics Canada s Survey of Approaches to Educational Planning, 2013 (CANSIM ). Key provincial data from that survey is reproduced in tables 5 and 6 of this document. 14

15 FIGURE 6 Annual CESG payments, New Brunswick $12,0 2,00 $10,0 $8,0 1,86 1,68 1,70 1,64 Payments in millions of current $ Nat l share of payments (axis on right side) 1,59 1,62 1,60 1,58 $7,4 1,52 1,48 $7,8 $8,6 $8,9 1,47 $9,1 1,45 $9,6 1,41 $9,8 1,37 $11,2 $11,0 $10,5 $10,6 $10,1 1,34 1,32 1,29 1,28 1,27 1,80 1,60 1,40 $6,8 1,20 $6,0 $5,4 $5,7 $5,9 $6,3 1,00 $4,9 0,80 $4,0 0,60 $2,8 $2,0 0,40 0,20 $0, ,00 Source : CESP data; compilation by M. Beaudin. Like elsewhere in the country, the number of CESG beneficiaries in New Brunswick has steadily increased, going from 18,000 in 1998 to 101,000 in 2016, a growth factor of 4.6. But the growth factor is higher in all other provinces except Newfoundland. As a result, the national share of New Brunswick beneficiaries has gradually declined, from 2.58% in 1998 to 1.76% in As for access to CESG payments, in 2016 New Brunswick trailed behind the country as a whole by seven percentage points (44.2% versus 51.1%). If the province s CESG participation rate were on par with the national average, there would now be more than 116,000 beneficiaries instead of 101,

16 FIGURE 7 New Brunswick CESG beneficiaries: Cumulative number and national share , ,58 2,30 2,21 2,14 2,11 Cumulative number of beneficiaries 0 to 17 years and 18 + years old (in thousands) 2,14 Nat l share (%) of CESG beneficiaries (axis on right side) 2,12 2,12 2,09 2, , , , , , , , ,78 1,76 2,50 2,00 1, , , ,00 Source : CESP data; compilation by M. Beaudin. 16

17 New Brunswick and the Canada Learning Bond (CLB) The CESP estimates that, of the nearly 55,000 children (aged 0-17 years) in New Brunswick eligible for the CLB in 2016, one quarter of them (24.7%) were enrolled (13,564) 8 [see Table 8]. The CLB is offered to children from low-income families born as of January Every eligible child receives $500 upon enrolment plus an additional $100 per year of eligibility up to age 15 or a maximum of $2, TABLE 4 CLB participation in New Brunswick Number of children in receipt of the CLB Number of children eligible to the CLB CLB participation rate (%) 6,2 11,5 15,4 17,7 19,4 19,7 21,2 22,0 22,8 23,6 24,7 Source: CESP data; compilation by M. Beaudin. It was in 2006 that the Canada Learning Bond took off in popularity, which has not waned since. The number of children enrolled nationally increased from 27,392 in 2006 to 507,160 in 2012 and reached 963,805 in The participation rate in Canada went from 6% to 27.9% and 34.7% for the same periods [see Table 5]. TABLE 5 CLB participation rate (%) by province BC 7,8 15,0 20,4 23,7 26,0 28,9 31,8 34,3 36,5 38,1 40,7 Quebec 6,9 14,0 19,3 22,9 25,1 27,6 30,9 33,0 34,9 37,0 39,5 Ontario 5,5 11,2 16,5 20,1 22,7 26,1 29,4 31,3 32,8 33,9 35,2 Alberta 6,6 12,4 16,3 19,0 21,3 23,7 26,4 28,6 30,5 33,0 33,8 PEI 3,1 6,1 10,0 12,4 14,3 16,4 19,3 21,3 22,7 24,0 25,3 Manitoba 3,6 6,8 9,8 11,9 14,5 16,9 19,2 20,7 22,0 23,4 25,2 New Brunswick 6,2 11,5 15,4 17,7 19,4 19,7 21,2 22,0 22,8 23,6 24,7 Nova Scotia 3,7 6,9 10,1 11,8 14,6 16,8 19,3 20,6 21,8 22,6 23,8 Saskatchewan 4,2 7,6 10,7 13,0 15,1 16,7 18,2 19,3 20,4 21,4 22,8 NL & Labrador 4,2 8,0 11,6 14,0 16,2 17,4 19,2 19,9 21,0 21,8 22,7 Canada 6,0 11,8 16,6 19,8 22,2 24,9 27,9 29,8 31,5 33,1 34,7 Source: CESP Data. (8) The provincial (New Brunswick) Canada Learning Bond website reports 13,476 of 53,632 eligible children registered, for a participation rate of 25%. See (9) Net family income had to be less than $44,701 for the 2016 tax year, so the CLB is intended for families receiving the Canada Child Benefit or previously the National Child Benefit. Parents do not have to invest in their children s RESP to qualify for the CLB. Benefits also apply to all years for which the child was eligible before applying. Parents just have to provide their and their child s social insurance numbers (SINs) and an income tax return. Ibid. 17

18 New Brunswick was unable to keep up with the rest of the country, and its CLB participation rate lagged 10 percentage points behind the national average of 34.7%. If its CLB participation rate were on par with the national average, there would now be 19,055 children enrolled in the program 5,500 more than is the case. An estimated 55,000 children (aged 0 to 17 years) in New Brunswick were eligible for the CLB in One quarter (13,564) of them were enrolled, for a participation rate of 24.7%. There were 963,805 CLB beneficiaries in Canada in 2016, 13,564 of them in New Brunswick, or 1.41% of all of the country s beneficiaries. However, the number of potential beneficiaries in the province (55,000 according to Canadian Education Savings Program estimates) represented 1.97% of the number of eligible children in Canada. The effort of the New Brunswick Economic and Social Inclusion Corporation to enrol more children in the CLB are certainly commendable and are likely helping prevent the gap with the national average from widening. But there is still much to be done to bring the province closer to the national average, which itself is subpar. Everyone agrees that more low-income families should be able to benefit from these grants. The research questions whether savings habits or, potentially, household disposable income might be factors that could explain New Brunswick s less favourable position with respect to RESPs. This does not seem to hold true when it comes to savings. For one thing, over the past decade or so, the savings rate of New Brunswick households has compared very favourably to their counterparts in Nova Scotia, but the latter has shown better penetration in RESPs. As for per capita disposable income, it grew in New Brunswick from a low of about $22,000 in the early 2000s to over $28,000 in Moreover, New Brunswick s relative position in this regard has improved, going from 85% of the national average in 2000 to nearly 91% in It appears that neither the level of savings nor disposable income can explain New Brunswick families lower participation rate to education savings. RESPs and the government grants associated with them play an increasingly important role in access to post-secondary education. They are also an effective way to counter student debt. Andrew Parkin 18

19 Student Debt in Canada and New Brunswick It is generally agreed that student debt is a serious problem that can undermine post-secondary participation rates. Across the board, surveys show a higher debt level among Canada s post-secondary students. The rapid rise in tuition following the decline in provincial government funding has inflated the cost of education, meanwhile other costs have also risen markedly. The student debt burden appears to be a barrier to postsecondary education, and the effects are starting to show. Although the university education participation rate of young people (aged years) has steadily increased in Canada, it has tended to stagnate and even decline since the financial crisis. In New Brunswick, 18% of young people were enrolled in one of the provincial universities in , down from 20% in It is short-sighted to link declining enrolment solely to rising costs, but the fact remains that the cost of a university education is increasing rapidly and outstripping inflation. According to the Maritime Provinces Higher Education Commission, these costs were estimated at an average of $17,000 per student per year in New Brunswick universities in , or almost $70,000 for a four-year bachelor s degree. The Canada Student Loans Program (CSLP) has existed since 1964, the same year the Universitas Foundation was created. Between 1964 and 2015, 5.3 million students borrowed $48.7 billion to finance their post-secondary education through this program. 10 Interestingly, assets accumulated in RESPs over roughly the same period were $47 billion in 2015, which means that Canadian families saved as much through RESPs for their children s education as they borrowed through the CSLP. 11 In , approximately $2.72 billion was disbursed under the CSLP to approximately 500,000 students, representing an average loan of $5,430 per student. In the same year, RESP beneficiaries withdrew $3.27 billion in post-secondary educational assistance payments, or an average of $8,283 per beneficiary student. (10) Employment and Social Development Canada, Canada Student Loans Program Statistical Review , online: canada-student-loans-grants/reports/statistical-review-2015.html (11) Note, however, that these are not necessarily the same groups of families or young people since students who take on debt generally have limited or no access to RESPs. 19

20 Our analyses show that RESPs have become a more important source of funding for post-secondary education in Canada than the Canada Student Loans Program (CSLP). Nationwide on an individual basis, RESPs contribute $2,850 more than the CSLP ($8,283 versus $5,430). Yet 51.6% of New Brunswick students rely on CSLP loans, compared to 31% nationally. According to CSLP data, loans of $66 million were disbursed to over 12,059 New Brunswick students in ($5,510 per student), or just over half (51.6%) of full-time Canadian students at New Brunswick universities and colleges, the highest proportion in the country [see Table 6]. These numbers point to the importance of RESPs in financing post-secondary education in relation to government loans. TABLE 6 CSLP loans to full-time students by province * Loans in Avg. % Can. Studies Avg. Loan Number million $ loan Can=100 with CSLP balance ($) Canada NL & Labrador ,0 27, PEI ,1 49, Nova Scotia ,6 35, New Brunswick ,7 51, Ontario ,2 49, Manitoba ,5 21, Saskatchewan ,9 28, Alberta ,6 33, BC ,3 36, * Does not take into account Quebec, which administers its own program. Sources : CSLP Stat Report and Stat Can (CANSIM, ); compilation by M. Beaudin. The value of loans disbursed to full-time (Canadian) students under the CSLP was $66.4 million for New Brunswick, averaging $5,510 per student roughly on par with the national average. Considering that average per capita income in New Brunswick in 2015 was 90% of the national average, the average debt level of New Brunswick students is relatively high in the national context. According to Statistics Canada s Survey of Financial Security (SFS), student debt (all ages) in New Brunswick totaled $1.38 billion in 2012, 13 or 14.4% of total personal debt (excluding mortgages). This percentage is very high compared to Canada as a whole, where student debt represents 9.2% of personal debt (excluding mortgages) on average. (12) An additional 104 part-time students borrowed $160,200, for an average loan of $1,540. (13) According to Statistics Canada, Survey of Financial Security (SFS), CANSIM Table

21 Another periodic Statistics Canada survey provides information on student debt by province and education level. The 2012 National Graduates Survey showed that 43% of college graduates in Canada had incurred student debt by graduation a proportion that rose to 50% for bachelor s graduates. The corresponding numbers for New Brunswick were much higher: 55% for college graduates and 70% for university graduates at the bachelor s-degree level [see Table 7]. The average amount of debt incurred upon graduation was higher for New Brunswick students: 20% higher than the national average for college, 35% higher for bachelor s degrees, and 20% higher for master s degrees. TABLE 7 Debt at graduation by education level and province 2012 College Bachelor's Master's PhD College Bachelor's Master's PhD Average debt incurred at graduation ($) % of graduates who incurred student debt Canada ,0 50,0 44,0 42,0 NL & Labr ,0 60,0 64,0 44,0 PEI nd 54,0 74,0 48,0 nd Nova Scotia ,0 68,0 50,0 52,0 New B ,0 70,0 46,0 42,0 Quebec ,0 47,0 45,0 58,0 Ont ,0 52,0 45,0 33,0 Man ,0 43,0 31,0 26,0 Sask nd 44,0 52,0 33,0 44,0 Alb ,0 48,0 42,0 28,0 BC nd 38,0 48,0 37,0 33,0 Source : Stat Can, National Graduates Survey, CANSIM ; compilation by M. Beaudin. 21

22 Education and Literacy in New Brunswick Although New Brunswick, like other provinces, has made significant strides in education in recent decades, its population is less educated overall. Using 2016 census data on education, we constructed two tables that position New Brunswick and its regions within the Canadian framework. First, we compare the provinces and New Brunswick CMAs for adult education (15 years and over) [see Table 8]. Then, we focus on the labor force (aged years) in Canada s 73 economic regions (the three in northern Canada are excluded) [see Table 9]. In both tables, there are two main comparisons: regions with the highest proportion of workers without a diploma or degree, and those with the highest proportion of university graduates. Let s analyse the data more closely. When considering the province s population as a whole [see Table 8], New Brunswick is poorly positioned. More than one in five New Brunswick residents (22%) holds no diploma, certificate or degree. The province shares second place with Manitoba, slightly ahead of Newfoundland and Labrador. The CMAs of Saint John (16th out of 35) and Moncton (20th) are doing better, but both are behind some 15 other CMAs in the country. 22

23 New Brunswick s unenviable position is reflected just as much, if not more, at the other end of the school curriculum, the university level. The province ranks second last in the country with only 16.7% of university graduates (bachelor s degree or above). The national average stands at 23.3%. And the two largest cities in the province, Moncton and especially Saint John, are well below the national average. TABLE 8 Provincial and CMA ranking by population education level (aged 15 years and over) 2016 No. cert./ Secondary Cert/degree + Rank / Prov.- CMA diploma diploma Degree + Rank / Prov. - CMA Total Men Women 1 NL & Labrador 23,4 25,0 14,8 1 Ontario 26,0 25,0 27,0 2 New Brunswick 22,0 28,5 16,7 2 British Columbia 24,6 23,5 25,6 3 Manitoba 22,0 29,6 20,1 3 Alberta 23,4 21,7 25,0 4 Saskatchewan 20,7 30,5 18,0 Canada 23,3 21,9 24,5 5 Québec 19,9 21,5 20,5 4 Nova Scotia 20,8 18,6 22,8 6 Nova Scotia 19,8 25,3 20,8 5 Quebec 20,5 19,3 21,7 7 PEI 19,2 27,2 19,1 Moncton (21/35 CMA) 20,5 18,6 22,2 Canada 18,3 26,5 23,3 6 Manitoba 20,1 18,1 22,0 8 Ontario 17,5 27,4 26,0 7 PEI 19,1 16,5 21,6 Saint John (16/35 CMA) 17,3 30,7 18,7 Saint John (25/35 CMA) 18,7 17,5 19,7 9 Alberta 16,9 27,9 23,4 8 Saskatchewan 18,0 16,0 20,0 Moncton (20 e /35 CMA) 16,8 28,3 20,5 9 New Brunswick 16,7 14,8 18,5 10 British Columbia 15,5 29,4 24,6 10 NL & Labrador 14,8 13,1 16,3 Source: 2016 Census, CANSIM X ; compilation by M. Beaudin. The New Brunswick population is relatively older than that of other Canadian provinces, which contributes (to some extent) to the province s lower standing in terms of its educated adult population. To counter this variable, we compiled the same data, but this time targeting only the labor force normally referred to as workers aged 25 to 64 years. The 73 economic regions of the country are thus classified according to the same two polls education-wise, as shown in Table 9. When we look at the proportion of this demographic with no diploma, the province s two northern economic regions rank poorly. In the northeast, the labour force without a degree is 17.7%, ranking sixth among the 73 economic regions. It is preceded in this category only by northern or out-of-centre regions. The northwestern part of the province accounts for nearly 12% of the labor force with no diploma. Although the province s southern economic regions are doing better, the proportion of students without diplomas in the southeastern part of the province, which is home to a more urban economic regions (Moncton), remains high at 10.3%, which is above the national average. More or less comparable regions have a moderately lower rate of workers with no diploma. This is particularly the case in northeastern Ontario and southwestern New Brunswick, which, however, do not share the same dynamism as the Moncton region. When we look at the labor force s proportion of university graduates, the province s two northern region are among the lower ranking economic regions. The northwest (Edmundston) comes in 50 th among economic regions with only 16.5% university graduates, versus 30.8% Canada-wide. The northeast (Campbellton-Miramichi) has only 14.3% university graduates, ranking it 66 th in the country. Even at 22.8% and 23%, respectively, the more urban economic regions of the southeast (Moncton) and southwest (Saint John) are also well below the national average. CMA: Census Metropolitan Areas 23

24 TABLE 9 Education of workforce (aged years) by economic region 2016 No certificate/diploma/degree No No certificate/diploma/degree Diploma/Degree + In % of In skilled % of skilled workforce workforce (aged (aged years) years) In % of In skilled % of skilled workforce workforce (aged (aged years) years) In % of skille Rank Economic region in % Rank Economic region in Rank % Rank Economic Economic region region in % in Rank % Rank Economic Economic region region in % in Rank % Economic region 1 North Sask (4760) 30,8 38 Annapolis Valley (1230) 11,41 North 1 Montreal Sask (4760) (2440) 30,8 43,4 38 Annapolis 37 Kootenay Valley (5940) (1230) 11,4 19,2 1 Montreal (2440) 2 Nord-du-Québec (2490) 29,6 39 Red Deer (4850) 11,02 Nord-du-Québec 2 Toronto (3530) (2490) 29,6 42,8 39 Red 38 Deer Lethbridge-Med (4850) Hat (4810) 11,0 19,1 2 Toronto (3530) 3 North Man (4680) 26,6 40 Mauricie (2470) 11,03 North 3 Ottawa Man (4680) (3510) 26,6 39,6 40 Mauricie 39 Southwest (2470) Man (4630) 11,0 18,9 3 Ottawa (3510) 4 So. Central Man (4620) 23,1 41 North Shore NS (1220) 11,04 So. 4 Central Calgary Man (4830) (4620) 23,1 38,5 41 North 40 Wood Shore Buff-Cold NS (1220) Lake (4880) 11,0 18,7 4 Calgary (4830) 5 So. Coast-Burin Pen (1020) 20,4 42 Swift Curr-Moos Jaw (4720) 10,95 So. 5 Coast-Burin Halifax - RÉ Pen (1250) (1020) 20,4 37,8 42 Swift 41 Curr-Moos Saguenay-Lac-Saint-J Jaw (4720)(2475) 10,9 18,5 5 Halifax - RÉ (1250) 6 Campbellton-Mir (1310) 17,7 43 Montérégie (2435) 10,66 Campbellton-Mir 6 Lower Mainland (1310) BC (5920) 17,7 37,3 43 Montérégie 42 Chaudière-Appalach (2435) (2425) 10,6 18,4 6 Lower Mainland BC (5920) 7 Athabasca-Gr Prair (4870) 17,4 44 Moncton-Richib (1320) 10,37 Athabasca-Gr 7 Winnipeg Prair (4650) (4870) 17,4 35,0 44 Moncton-Richib 43 North Central (1320) Man (4640) 10,3 18,2 7 Winnipeg (4650) 8 Notr Dame-C Bonav (1040) 17,4 45 PEI (1110) 10,38 Notr 8 Dame-C Fredericton-Orom Bonav (1040) (1340) 17,4 32,1 45 PEI 44(1110) Interlake Man (4660) 10,3 18,0 8 Fredericton-Orom (1340) 9 Gaspésie-Iles-Madel. (2410) 17,4 46 Saguenay-Lac-S-J (2475) 9,79 Gaspésie-Iles-Madel. 9 Capitale-Natl (QC) (2410) (2420) 17,4 31,2 46 Saguenay-Lac-S-J 45 Bas-Saint-Laurent (2475)(2415) 9,7 17,8 9 Capitale-Natl (QC) (2420) 10 Southwest NS (1240) 16,9 47 Kitchener-Waterloo (3540) 9,5 10 Southwest Canada NS (01) (1240) 16,9 30,8 47 Kitchener-Waterloo 46 Red Deer (4850) (3540) 9,5 17,1 Canada (01) 11 Abitibi-Témiscaming (2465) 16,4 48 Cape Breton (1210) 9,5 11 Abitibi-Témiscaming 10 Saskatoon-Biggar (2465) (4730) 16,4 30,3 48 Cape 47 Breton Cariboo (1210) (5950) 9,5 17,1 10 Saskatoon-Biggar (4730) 12 Côte-Nord Québec (2480) 16,2 49 Laval (2445) 9,5 12 Côte-Nord 11 Edmonton Québec (4860) (2480) 16,2 29,9 49 Laval 48 (2445) Southeast Man (4610) 9,5 16,6 11 Edmonton (4860) 13 Northeast BC (5980) 15,9 50 Wood Buffalo-Cold L (4880) 9,2 13 Northeast 12 Outaouais BC (5980) (2460) 15,9 29,8 50 Wood 49 Stratford-Bruce Buffalo-Cold L (4880) Pen (3580) 9,2 16,5 12 Outaouais (2460) 14 Parklands Man (4670) 15,8 51 Northeast Ont (3590) 9,0 14 Parklands 13 Laval Man (2445) (4670) 15,8 29,8 51 Northeast 50 Edmundston-Wood Ont (3590) (1350) 9,0 16,5 13 Laval (2445) 15 North Coast BC (5960) 15,8 Canada (01) 8,9 15 North 14 Regina-Moose Coast BC (5960) Mnt (4710) 15,8 27,8 Canada 51 Prince (01) Albert Sask (4750) 8,9 16,2 14 Regina-Moose Mnt (4710) 16 Southeast Man (4610) 15,2 52 London (3560) 8,7 16 Southeast 15 Vancouv Man Isl. (4610) & Coast (5910) 15,2 27,7 52 London 52 North (3560) Coast BC (5960) 8,7 16,1 15 Vancouv Isl. & Coast (5910) 17 Nechako BC (5970) 14,7 53 Muskoka-Kawartha (3520) 8,6 17 Nechako 16 Avalon BC (5970) Peninsula (1010) 14,7 27,5 53 Muskoka-Kawartha 53 Lanaudière (2450) (3520) 8,6 16,1 Avalon Peninsula (1010) 18 Centre-du-Québec (2433) 14,7 54 Thomps-Okanagan (5930) 8,4 18 Centre-du-Québec 17 Hamilton-Niagara (2433) (3550) 14,7 25,9 54 Thomps-Okanagan 54 Swift Curr-Moos (5930) Jaw (4720) 8,4 16,1 17 Hamilton-Niagara (3550) 19 West Co-Labrador (1030) 13,9 55 Edmonton (4860) 8,2 19 West 18 Co-Labrador Kitchener-Waterloo (1030) (3540) 13,9 25,9 55 Edmonton 55 Southwest (4860) NS(1240) 8,2 16,0 18 Kitchener-Waterloo (3540) 20 Cariboo (5950) 13,2 56 Kootenay (5940) 8,1 20 Cariboo 19 London (5950) (3560) 13,2 25,9 56 Kootenay 56 Abitibi-Témiscaming (5940) (2465) 8,1 16,0 19 London (3560) 21 North Central Man (4640) 13,1 57 Windsor-Sarnia (3570) 8,0 21 North 20 PEI Central (1110) Man (4640) 13,1 24,7 57 Windsor-Sarnia 57 Nechako BC (3570) (5970) 8,0 15,9 20 PEI (1110) 22 Lethbridg-Med Hat (4810) 12,7 58 Hamilton-Niagara (3550) 8,0 22 Lethbridg-Med 21 Montérégie Hat (2435) (4810) 12,7 24,7 58 Hamilton-Niagara 58 West Coast-Labrador (3550) (1030) 8,0 15,7 21 Montérégie (2435) 23 Lanaudière (2450) 12,7 59 Vancouv Isl. & Coast (5910) 7,9 23 Lanaudière 22 Moncton-Richib (2450) (1320) 12,7 23,2 59 Vancouv 59 North Isl. Man & Coast (4680) (5910) 7,9 14,8 22 Moncton-Richib (1320) 24 Prince Albert Sask (4750) 12,7 60 Regina-Moose Mnt (4710) 7,7 24 Prince 23 Windsor-Sarnia Albert Sask (4750) (3570) 12,7 22,9 60 Regina-Moose 60 Centre-du-Québec Mnt (4710) (2433) 7,7 14,8 23 Windsor-Sarnia (3570) 25 Stratford-Bruce Pen (3580) 12,5 61 Montreal (2440) 7,6 25 Stratford-Bruce 24 Saint John-St. Pen (3580) Step (1330) 12,5 22,8 61 Montreal 61 South (2440) Central Man (4620) 7,6 14,7 24 Saint John-St. Step (1330) 26 Bas-Saint-Laurent (2415) 12,5 62 Winnipeg (4650) 7,6 26 Bas-Saint-Laurent 25 Estrie (2430)(2415) 12,5 22,4 62 Winnipeg 62 Gaspésie-Iles-Madel. (4650) (2410) 7,6 14,7 25 Estrie (2430) 27 Northwest Ont (3595) 12,4 63 Kingston-Pembroke (3515) 7,5 27 Northwest 26 Kingston-Pembroke Ont (3595) (3515) 12,4 21,8 63 Kingston-Pembroke 63 Côte-Nord Québec (3515) (2480) 7,5 14,4 26 Kingston-Pembroke (3515) 28 Camrose-Drumhel (4820) 12,3 64 Saint John-St. Step (1330) 7,4 28 Camrose-Drumhel 27 Northwest Ont (4820) (3595) 12,3 21,3 64 Saint 64 John-St. Yorkton-Melville Step (1330) Sask (4740) 7,4 14,4 27 Northwest Ont (3595) 29 Interlake Man (4660) 12,1 65 Saskatoon-Biggar (4730) 7,3 29 Interlake 28 Banff-Jasp-Rocky Man (4660) M (4840) 12,1 21,2 65 Saskatoon-Biggar 65 North (4760) (4730) 7,3 14,3 28 Banff-Jasp-Rocky M (4840) 30 Laurentides (2455) 12,1 66 Toronto (3530) 7,3 30 Laurentides 29 Cape Breton (2455)(1210) 12,1 20,7 66 Toronto 66 Campbellton-Miram (3530) (1310) 7,3 14,3 29 Cape Breton (1210) 31 Banff-Jasp-Rocky M (4840) 12,0 67 Avalon Peninsula (1010) 7,2 31 Banff-Jasp-Rocky 30 North Shore M NS (4840) (1220) 12,0 20,3 67 Avalon 67 Parklands Peninsula Man (1010) (4670) 7,2 14,3 30 North Shore NS (1220) 32 Estrie (2430) 11,9 68 Calgary (4830) 7,1 32 Estrie 31 Thompson-Okanag (2430) (5930) 11,9 20,3 68 Calgary 68 Camrose-Drumheller (4830) (4820) 7,1 14,2 31 Thompson-Okanag (5930) 33 Edmundston-Wood (1350) 11,9 69 Lower Mainl BC (5920) 6,9 33 Edmundston-Wood 32 Annapolis Valley (1350) (1230) 11,9 20,1 69 Lower 69 Athabasca-Gr Mainl BC (5920) Prairie (4870) 6,9 13,5 32 Annapolis Valley (1230) 34 Southwest Man (4630) 11,9 70 Fredericton-Orom (1340) 6,5 34 Southwest 33 Mauricie Man (2470) (4630) 11,9 19,8 70 Fredericton-Orom 70 Northeast BC (1340) (5980) 6,5 13,3 33 Mauricie (2470) 35 Yorkton-Melv Sask (4740) 11,7 71 Capitale-Natl (Qué) (2420) 6,3 35 Yorkton-Melv 34 Muskoka-Kawartha Sask (4740)(3520) 11,7 19,8 71 Capitale-Natl 71 Nord-du-Québec (Qué) (2420) (2490) 6,3 11,6 34 Muskoka-Kawartha (3520) 36 Chaudière-Appal (2425) 11,4 72 Halifax - RE (1250) 6,2 36 Chaudière-Appal 35 Laurentides (2425) (2455) 11,4 19,6 72 Halifax 72 Notre - RE (1250) Dam-C Bonav (1040) 6,2 11,4 35 Laurentides (2455) 37 Outaouais (2460) 11,4 73 Ottawa (3510) 5,5 37 Outaouais 36 Northeast (2460) Ont (3590) 11,4 19,4 73 Ottawa 73 So. (3510) Coast-Burin Pen (1020) 5,5 8,5 36 Northeast Ont (3590) Source : Census, CANSIM X ; compilation by M. Beaudin. Source : Census, CANSIM X ; compilation by M. Beaudin. While this data is far from complete, it does provide some indication of the overall level of education in New Brunswick within the context of Canada as a whole. As we have seen, the province is not in an enviable position in this regard. Things look somewhat less bleak when we look only at the skilled workforce, but there again, the economic regions in the north are at a clear disadvantage, and the urban economic regions in the south are not on par with the national average for university graduates in the workforce. This brings us to the broader issue of literacy, which we discuss hereafter. When looking at literacy, the findings are similar. A recent Statistics Canada 14 study shows that 60% of New Brunswick s French-speaking students consistently score lower on literacy and numeracy tests. They score well below English-speaking New Brunswickers and French speakers in Quebec, Ontario, and Manitoba on these proficiency tests, which has implications for the province s social and economic development. As the New Brunswick government points out on its website, this emphasizes the importance of investing in access to education at all levels within the family setting and in elementary, secondary and post-secondary schools. It is easy to see how an education savings incentive could be part of the solution by helping develop the skills of the general public, and workers in particular. (14) Bérard-Chagnon J. and J-F Lepage, The literacy skills of New Brunswick francophones: Demographic and socioeconomic issues, Statistics Canada, No X ,

25 Employment Trends and New Brunswick s Economy In real terms, New Brunswick s economy made fairly decent progress in the 1980s and 1990s, falling just shy of the national average. Starting with the 2008 financial crisis, its performance began to lag somewhat as the economy stalled and even lost ground in some areas [see Figure 8]. FIGURE 8 Change in real GDP by region (Index 2000 = 100) Energy Prov. (Alb/Sask/NS) 140 Man & BC CANADA QC & Ont NS & PEI NB Source : Stat Canada, CANSIM, Chart ; compilation by M. Beaudin. The near stagnation of real GDP in New Brunswick as of the 2008 financial crisis was also reflected in real GDP per capita, as shown in Figure 9. 25

26 FIGURE 9 Change in real GDP per capita by region $ $ (Real GDP in constant $ of 2017) Energy Prov. 101,0 98,0 $ ,0 $ ,0 $ CANADA 89,0 $ $ Man & BC QC Ont NB 86,0 83,0 $ ,0 $ GDP/capita in NB in $ Nat l avg. (right axis) 77,0 $ , Source : Stat Canada, CANSIM, Chart and ; compilation by M. Beaudin. This phenomenon could also be seen in diminished investments (especially private), which fell from 24% of GDP in to 18.5% in 2013 and subsequent years. The central provinces also saw their share of investments stagnate or even decline following the 2008 crisis, as evidenced in investment per capita. But the situation was more tenuous in New Brunswick, as Figure 10 shows. 26

27 FIGURE 10 Change in real investment per capita by region Energy Prov. ONLY $ (Real GDP in constant $ of 2007) $ $ $ Energy Prov. $ $ $ CANADA $ $ $ $ Man & BC $ $9 000 Ont $ $8 000 $7 000 NB QC $ $ $6 000 $9 000 $5 000 $7 000 $4 000 $5 000 $3 000 $ Source : Stat Canada, CANSIM, Chart and ; compilation by M. Beaudin. Practically speaking, the loss of momentum in New Brunswick s economy can largely be attributed to the export sector, which has slowed significantly since the 2008 crisis. New Brunswick s total trade deficit (domestic and international), which was generally in the $1.5 billion range (negative impact of 7 8% on GDP), increased significantly from the mid-2000s, reaching 17% of GDP in recent years. For a province whose economy is still centred on the extraction of natural resources, shoring up this important GDP pillar the trade balance represents a sizable challenge [see Figure 11]. 27

28 FIGURE 11 Net trade balance per capita by region 1990 to 2015 $ (Exports less imports), domestic and international $ $ $8 000 Energy Prov. $6 000 $4 000 $2 000 $0 -$ $ $6 000 Ont QC Man & BC NB -$ $ NS -$ Source : Stat Canada, CANSIM, Chart and ; compilation by M. Beaudin. One factor underlying the growth of real per capita disposable income in the Maritime provinces is the fact that the population grew only marginally during this period. Real per capita disposable income was at the low end of the Canadian scale in New Brunswick, Nova Scotia and Quebec [see Figure 12]. 28

29 FIGURE 12 Change in real per capita disposable income by region $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ (in 2007 constant $) excluding energy prov. Alb, Sask & NL C-B BC Can Can Ont ON NB NB Man Man N-E NS IPÉ PEI Que QC BC CAN Ont NB Man NS QC PEI $ $ $ $ $ $ $ Sources: Statistics Canada, Provincial and Territorial Economic Accounts, compilation by M. Beaudin. The economic performance of a province or country is affected in part by the framework of the labor market and structural changes in employment. Access to postsecondary education and high-level training create a highly skilled workforce and a dynamic job market. The following two figures illustrate trends in employment in New Brunswick. While employment in service industries increased significantly in the 1990s, employment in the economic base industries (primary and manufacturing sectors) faltered and then fell from the mid-2000s on [see Figure 13]. 29