USERS NEEDS AT CENTRAL AND TERRITORIAL LEVEL

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1 EUROPEAN UNION PHARE RO/2001/IB ST-01 Twinning Project between ROMANIA and ITALY USERS NEEDS AT CENTRAL AND TERRITORIAL LEVEL Fabio Rossi, MINISTERO DELL ECONOMIA E DELLE FINANZE & Ion Ghizdeanu, NATIONAL COMISSION FOR ECONOMIC FORECASTING Abstract The production of Quality statistics for NSIs (National Statistical Institutes) is an institutional goal, at the same time statistics of high quality are the basic input for everyday work of the business community, international organizations, universities and research institutes, public at large, and policy makers. This presentation will focus on the demand of statistics from ministries and public administration, in MS (Italy) and CC (Romania) for the elaboration of official macro-economics and structural economics documents at national and international, mainly European, level. The list of documents - and their customary or mandatory deadlines annually elaborated at the Department of Treasury of the Italian Ministry of Economics and Finance and at the Romanian C.N.P., National Commission for Economic Forecasting will be presented stressing the importance of the statistical data necessary input to the analyses. There will also be presented, based on the experience of the National Commission for Economic Forecasting, a series of guidelines for statistical development in order to better answer the users requests. OFFICIAL STATISTICS AT THE SERVICE OF THE SOCIETY PAG. 1 Bucharest - Romania, July 2004

2 Demand for Quality Statistics Phare RO 2001 IB ST 01 Bucuresti July 12th 2004 Fabio Rossi MEF - Dipartimento del tesoro Bucuresti, Iulie

3 Why Quality Statistics is important? Who are the beneficiaries? For the people of the world For citizens For enterprises For policy makers Bucuresti, Iulie

4 The needs of policy makers Policy makers need to find solutions to problems as diverse and complex as: Public Debt Management Growth and Stability Pact Pension system management Reduction of greenhouse gases emissions Social happiness In order to design solutions (policies) to real problems it is necessary to have reliable info. Which type of info? We shall attempt to give an answer by looking at some of the italian documents presenting economic policies. Bucuresti, Iulie

5 The administration that I know best Ministero dell Economia e delle Finanze (MEF) Dipartimento del Tesoro (Treasury) Ragioneria Generale dello Stato (RGS) Bucuresti, Iulie

6 MEF - Dipartimento del tesoro The Treasury is the central administration responsible for all economic and financial matters, among its functions are: Design of national economic policy (both structural and cyclical policies); Management of public debt and patrimony; Management of public deficit (surplus); Management of the Privatisation programme; Governance of all financial international relations; Exercise of stockholder rights on behalf of the Republic. Bucuresti, Iulie

7 MEF-Ragioneria Generale dello Stato The RGS is the accounting department of central administration responsible for the truthfulness and reliability of the public finance accounts, among its functions are: Management of the State treasury office; Budget law drafting; State budget management; Control of public entities financial management; Monitoring expenditure; Analysis of expenditure evolution and trends; Public expenditure and State budget forecast. Bucuresti, Iulie

8 Some of MEF legal duties Budget law Financial law Provisional budget (RPP) DPEF Stability Programme National Report on Economic Reforms Bucuresti, Iulie

9 Budget and financial law The budget law presents all the main fiscal aggregates for one year prior to the budget year and 2-years beyond it. It authorizes all revenue and spending consistent with existing law (RGS) The financial law is an ordinary law containing all the new measures that must be included in the 3- year programmatic budget (RGS, Tesoro) Bucuresti, Iulie

10 Relazione previsionale e programmatica Draft fiscal programm with estimates and description of new policies proposed.includes draft finance law and supporting documents from each ministry (Tesoro) Bucuresti, Iulie

11 Documento di Programmazione Economico Finanziaria Macroeconomic framework (Tesoro, ISTAT, ISAE, RGS) Policies (Tesoro) Bucuresti, Iulie

12 Stability and growth programme fulfilment of Art 4 European Council Regulation 1466/97 First pillar pensions system (RGS) All other sections (Tesoro, ISTAT) among these: Debt management data and analysis Tax measures 2nd and 3rd pillar pension system Sensitivity analysis Bucuresti, Iulie

13 National Report on economic reform fulfillment of instructions of several European Council conclusions Structural Economy Document Crucial interplay between ISTAT (supply) and Tesoro (demand) Bucuresti, Iulie

14 General principles the first EPC report in 2000 identified the following desirable characteristics for the list of indicators for inclusion in the Spring Report: policy relevant; limited in number, yet sufficiently large to be properly representative of the broad economic and social areas they cover; stable over time, albeit open to sensible evolution; easy to read and understand; available in a timely fashion from reliable data sources; comparable across countries both inside and outside of the EU (especially US and Japan); data collection should not represent a burden upon enterprises and Member States. Bucuresti, Iulie

15 General economic background Indicator Definition Sources Type GDP Real GDP growth at constant prices (1995) GDP per capita at PPS Labor productivity LP per worker and per hour worked, Labour Force Survey Employment growth Employed population total, males, females, National accounts Inflation HICP (annual), harmonized series Unit labor cost growth Compensation over productivity (GDP employment) Government balance Net general balance as % of GDP Policy Government debt Gross debt as % of GDP Bucuresti, Iulie

16 Employment Indicator Definition Sources Type Total employment rate total and by gender, Labour Force Survey Average exit age from the labor force Total and by gender, Labour Force Survey Employment rate of older workers total and by gender, National accounts Unemployment rate ILO definition, by gender, harmonized series Accidents at work Serious and fatal accidents total and by gender Tax rate on low wage earners Income tax + employee and employer contributions as a share of labor cost for low wage earners OECD database Policy Toptier Life-long learning % of in education or training total and by gender, Labour Force Survey Bucuresti, Iulie

17 Innovation Indicator Definition Source Type Spending in human resources Public spending in education Educational attainment rate of young population % of yr olds in education, and % of yr olds with at least tertiary level education, Labour Force Survey (LFS) Total R&D expenditure Total R&D expenditure as a percentage of GDP (broken down by government and others) R&D statistics, OECD Patents member States and US patents per capita (EPO and USPTO patents) European Patent Office (EPO) and US Patent Office (USPO) Venture capital as a % of GDP Venture capital investments (ie private equity minus buyouts) relative to GDP EVCA ICT expenditure ICT as a percentage of GDP EITO Science and technology graduates Graduates and post graduates total and by gender E-commerce Turnover sold Information society and services Level of internet access Internet on-line active accounts (both EITO residential and business users) per 100 Conferinta inhabitants Nationala: Statistica oficiala în serviciul societatii Bucuresti, Iulie

18 Economic reform Indicator Definition Sources Type Trade integration Total export of goods + total imports of goods divided by 2* GDP (Comext), further work at eurostat planned within EDICOM II Toptier Relative price levels Relative price levels of private final consumption including taxes (EU=100) /OECD (consumer price statistics: PPP indicators) Toptier Prices in network industries Consumer price level evolution for specific services in the telecommunications, electricity and gas markets (price statistics) DG INFSO for telecommunication data Toptier Convergence of bank loaning rates House loans, enterprises loans Toptier Business investment Business investment expenditure as percentage of GDP, national accounts Toptier Business demography Births, deads, balance Toptier total FDI flows As a Percentage of GDP and Member State share in EU total (FDI, national accounts) and SDC M&A data base Toptier State aids As percentage of GDP Toptier Governemnt procurement Procurement openly advertised/gdp Toptier Bucuresti, Iulie

19 Social cohesion Indicator Definition Sources Type Income distribution Ratio of 80Th to 20th percentile ECHP Toptier Poverty rate Share of population below 50% of median disposable income ECHP Toptier Persistency in poverty % of population below poverty line for 3-year period ECHP Toptier Long-term unemployment rate ILO definition over 12 months harmonized series LFS Toptier Jobless households Total by gender and children ECHP Toptier Regional unemployment Coefficient of variation of unemployment at regional level, Regional statistics Toptier Share of early schoolleavers yr olds with only secondary level education, not in training or in education LFS Toptier Bucuresti, Iulie

20 Environment Indicator Definition Sources Type Greenhouse gas emissions Total Mton of CO2 equivalent UNCCC Toptier Energy intensity Gross inland consumption of energy/gdp Toptier Transport Passangers, freights/gdp, modal split Toptier Protected areas for biodiversity Habitat, birds, fishstock Toptier Municipal waste Total, land-filled, incinerated Toptier Air quality Ozone and particulate matter Toptier Renewables Electricity produced from renewables/total electricity production Toptier Bucuresti, Iulie

21 Other official document and their legal relevance The following are also documents written by the Italian Government: Prospectus to the US SEC (Tesoro) Sustainable development strategy (MATT - Tesoro) National greenhouse gases emissions reduction plan (MATT - MAP - MIPAF - Tesoro) Bucuresti, Iulie

22 Bottom line Statistics is going to be more and more the cornerstone for the construction of good economic sustainable measures, and the language used in the international and national peer pressure processes leading to better policies Bucuresti, Iulie