Social Indicators 15 OCTOBER 2002

Transcription

1 15 OCTOBER 2002 Social Indicators This Research Paper summarises some of the main social statistics available for the UK. The major subjects covered are crime and justice, education, health, housing, population, social security and transport. This edition s articles: House Prices Analysis and Methodology The 2001 Census of Population: First Results Sources of Asylum and Immigration Statistics Adam Mellows-Facer - Editor SOCIAL & GENERAL STATISTICS HOUSE OF COMMONS LIBRARY

2 Recent Library Research Papers include: 02/42 Economic Indicators [includes article: Housing market overheating] /43 The Burden of Taxation /44 Inflation: the value of the pound /45 The Euro-Zone: The early years & UK convergence /46 Unemployment by Constituency, June /47 The Mobile Telephones (Re-programming) Bill [HL Bill 177 of ] /48 Defence Statistics July /49 Unemployment by Constituency, July /50 Regional Development Agencies (RDAs) /51 Unemployment by Constituency, August /52 Detention of suspected international terrorists Part 4 of the Anti-Terrorism, Crime and Security Act /53 Iraq: the debate on policy options /54 The Anti-Terrorism, Crime and Security Act 2001: Disclosure of Information /55 Sustainable development and the 2002 World Summit /56 Local Government Finance in England: Replacing the Standard Spending Assessment Research Papers are available as PDF files: to members of the general public on the Parliamentary web site, URL: within Parliament to users of the Parliamentary Intranet, URL: Library Research Papers are compiled for the benefit of Members of Parliament and their personal staff. Authors are available to discuss the contents of these papers with Members and their staff but cannot advise members of the general public. Any comments on Research Papers should be sent to the Research Publications Officer, Room 407, 1 Derby Gate, London, SW1A 2DG or ed to PAPERS@parliament.uk ISSN

3 CONTENTS I Introduction to Social Indicators i II Contacts for further information ii III Article 1: House Prices - Analysis and methodology iii IV Article 2: The 2001 Census of Population: First results viii V Sources of Asylum and Immigration statistics x VI Subject pages 1 Agriculture 1 2 Crime and Justice 3 3 Defence 9 4 Education 12 5 Elections 20 6 Environment and Energy 23 7 Health 28 8 Housing 32 9 Local Government Population and Migration Social Security Transport 48 VII Recent statistical publications and data releases 52

4 List of topic pages 1.1 Agricultural output & incomes Agricultural labour Police numbers Police funding Recorded crime International comparisons -homicide Drug misuse Prison population Defence employment Defence expenditure Defence exports Class sizes in England Schools in the UK Teachers and pupils per teacher GCSE and A-Level results Post 16 participation Applicants and entrants to higher education Participation in higher education Education expenditure General election results Opinion polls Local election results Trends in UK road fuel prices Road fuel prices across the EU Energy consumption in the UK Carbon dioxide emissions Health Services: Waiting lists Health expenditure Beds and activity NHS staff Dwellings completed House prices Homeless Rough sleeping Empty houses Local government finance Council tax UK population Vital statistics: Life expectancy, infant mortality and births outside marriage International migration Asylum seekers Social security expenditure Benefit rates Pensioners' incomes Road accident casualties Road traffic Cars and car ownership Passenger transport Rail passengers Rail performance 51

5 I Introduction to Social Indicators Social Indicators is a wide-ranging collection of statistics produced by the Social & General Statistics section. These statistics are presented in a number of formats to reflect different user needs. The main elements are a series of summary topic pages, in-depth feature articles, guidance on statistical sources and links to other information. Details of the Research Paper and online content are given below. The topics have been chosen from those that receive the most public attention and those that we think are most useful to Members. These include a few international comparisons, but the majority are nationally based statistics. Every attempt has been made to match the geographical coverage of these topics to the powers of the UK parliament. The subject coverage is intended to be complementary to the Economic Indicators Research Paper, which is produced by the Economic Policy and Statistics Section. The range of topics included in Social Indicators and the content of the Intranet pages will be regularly reviewed. If you have views on either, please let us know either by contacting the Head of Section Richard Cracknell (x 4632) or the editor Adam Mellows-Facer (x 6969) A. The Research Paper The Social Indicators Research Paper is produced three times a year following the Christmas, Easter and Summer recesses. The paper includes the most up to date version of the topic pages at the time of publication, feature articles, an article that details the major statistical sources on a particular subject and a list of the most important statistical publications from the past few months. B. Additional online features The Social Indicators Intranet pages are available to Members and staff who are connected to the PDVN. 1 Their additional features are: Topic pages which are updated when new statistics are released. Users can download the underlying data, which frequently includes a longer time series and/or additional information. Links to publications/websites on the Internet and other Library publications specifically related to the topic. Additional articles on statistical sources. 1 i

6 II Contacts for further information Members and staff who require further information on a particular subject can contact the relevant statistician. Details are given on each topic page and by broad subject area below. A comprehensive guide to the subject coverage of specialists in the Research Service is available from the Library in Who Does What in Research Subject Statistician Ext. Agriculture Richard Cracknell 4632 Charities Adam Mellows-Facer 6969 Civil Service Richard Cracknell Ross Young Crime & Police Gavin Berman Ross Young Defence Gavin Berman 3851 Education Paul Bolton David Knott Elections Adam Mellows-Facer Ross Young Energy Paul Bolton 6789 Environment Paul Bolton 6789 Gambling/Lottery Paul Bolton 6789 Health services Adam Mellows-Facer David Knott Housing Gavin Berman 3851 Immigration Richard Cracknell Ross Young Local Government Finance Gavin Berman Paul Bolton Media/Arts Paul Bolton 6789 Parliament Richard Cracknell Ross Young Population Adam Mellows-Facer Richard Cracknell Religion Gavin Berman 3851 Science Paul Bolton 6789 Social Security Richard Cracknell 4632 Sport Gavin Berman 3851 Statistics Richard Cracknell 4632 Transport Paul Bolton 6789 ii

7 I House prices Analysis and methodology Whenever average house price data are published there are many interested parties from central bankers, who use the data to influence interest rate decisions, to the individual homeowner. Information on house price movements is predominately available from four institutions: Halifax, Nationwide, HM Land Registry and the Office of the Deputy Prime Minister (ODPM). There are several methods that could be used to calculate the trend in house prices, ranging from a simple average of purchase price to a statistical method of averaging. There is also the matter of making sure that the different mixture of properties sold in each month does not give a false impression of the actual change in house prices. The mix of properties sold during one particular period is never the same as the previous period. So the change in the simple average house price from one period to the next will reflect not only underlying changes in house prices but also changes in this mix of properties sold. Consequently a mix-adjusted house price series, which removes the effect of changes in the types of properties sold, is a better measure of true house price movement than an index based on the simple average price. House prices are slightly seasonal - that is, prices are higher at certain times of year irrespective of the overall trend. This tends to be in spring and summer, when more buyers are in the market and hence sellers do not need to discount prices so heavily, in order to achieve a sale. The effect on prices over the year is of the order of +/- 2%; however this is much smaller than the change in volume of property transactions. For the monthly house price index where changes can be as little as 0.1%, seasonal factors are important. Therefore seasonally adjusted series for UK house prices are often produced. These seek to remove this effect so that the overall trend in prices is more readily apparent. Seasonal adjustment by the Nationwide shows that June is generally the strongest month for house prices (raw prices are 1.3% above their SA level) and January is the weakest (raw prices are 1.9% below their SA level). Halifax and Nationwide mix adjust all their published data, while the ODPM offers some mix adjusted information although the majority of the statistics they produce are simple averages. Halifax and Nationwide provide both seasonally and non-seasonally adjusted data while the ODPM do not seasonally adjust their house price data. The Land Registry neither mix nor seasonally adjust their data offering a simple average of house prices. The following table summarises the information provided above as well as indicating whether monthly, quarterly and annual series are available and from what date the series begin. Halifax Nationwide ODPM HM Land Registry Mix adjusted Yes Yes Available No Seasonally adjusted Available Available No No Monthly series Jan 1983 Jan 1991 No No Quarterly series Q Q Q Yes Annual series 1983 No 1969 No All four institutions provide regional breakdowns of their data, although monthly data are only provided for the UK as a whole. The ODPM and Halifax break the UK down into twelve standard regions while Nationwide has thirteen regions. The Land Registry only covers England and Wales (nine regions), but through its web site provides information at county, local authority, London borough and even postcode level. The rate of growth of house prices, or house price inflation, is the issue that receives the most attention from economists and the media. The sources do not iii

8 provide identical measures of the inflation rate, but as the chart below shows the trends in the rate are similar for the three institutions compared 1. as they had been in the previous year. The three measures of house price inflation converge soon after this point Annual house price inflation, comparison of ODPM, Halifax and Nationwide estimates, United Kingdom (quarterly) from 1984 Below key dates from the Halifax quarterly series have been provided. 2 Q Average price in a region exceeds 50,000 for the first time. The region is Greater London. Q The average price of a house in the UK is more than 50,000 Q The average house price in Greater London and the South East sneaks above 100,000, but has fallen below this mark twelve months later. Q Prices again rise above the 100,000 mark in Greater London. Q In the South East the average house price is over 100, ODPM Halifax Nationwide We can see that there has been very little divergence in the house price inflation rates over the period shown. The inflation rates around the peak of the house price boom during the late eighties are very similar, varying by only a couple of percentage points between the three data sets, this at a time when house prices were a third higher than they had been twelve months earlier. The one time when there is real discrepancy in the rates of house price inflation is during the house price crash of the early 1990s. This is most apparent in the final quarter of 1990 when the Nationwide series records house price deflation of nearly eleven per cent, compared to a fall in house prices of less than four per cent for the Halifax. At the same time the ODPM series shows prices at the same level Q The average price of a house in the South West pushes past 100,000. Q In East Anglia the average house price rises above 100,000 Q The average house price in the UK moves past the 100,000 barrier. Q As the East and West Midlands regions see average house prices exceed 100,000, in Greater London the average rises above 200,000. This latest available data shows that average prices are below 70,000 in Scotland and the North while in Yorkshire and the Humber, Wales, the North West and Northern Ireland average prices are yet to rise above 80, It is not suitable to make comparisons of the house price inflation rate derived from mixadjusted sources with the non mix-adjusted HM Land Registry data. 2 Similar information could obviously be provided for the other data suppliers and the choice of the Halifax is completely arbitrary. There would be little value in providing parallel dates for those other suppliers in this article, but this could be done on request. vii

9 Brief Methodology Halifax The Halifax House Price Indices were introduced in April 1984, the series being carried back to The indices are based on the detailed records of the prices, physical characteristics and the regional location of all the houses on which the organisation has made a mortgage offer in each time period. The methodology is applied separately to produce monthly and quarterly standardised indices for different categories of house (all houses, new houses and existing houses) and buyer (first-time buyers and former owner-occupiers). The U.K. national all-houses, all-buyers monthly index is also available as a seasonally adjusted series. Regional index numbers are also created (quarterly) for all, new and existing houses and for houses bought by first-time buyers and former owner-occupiers. The regional all houses, all buyers quarterly index is also provided as a seasonally adjusted series. The database used to construct the current indices offers a large number of housepurchase transactions that have been financed by the Halifax. Not all house purchases financed by the Halifax are included in the database. There are some properties that are excluded from the subsequent analyses. For example, council house sales that may have been sold at below market price. After editing, the database covers around 13,500 house purchase transactions per month. It should be noted that the data refer to mortgage transactions at the time they were approved rather than completed. This has the disadvantage of covering some cases that never proceed to completion. However, it has the advantage that the price information is more up-to-date as an indicator of price movements and is on a more consistent time-base than completions data given the variable time lags between approval and completion. Nationwide Although the Nationwide series is similar to the Halifax method, Nationwide substantially updated its system in 1993 following the publication of the 1991 census data. Nationwide suggest that these improvements mean the system is more robust to lower sample sizes because it better identifies and tracks its representative house price. The monthly figure measures the mix-adjusted average house price for all houses in the UK back to January Each quarter, since Q4 1973, the Nationwide has published a more detailed breakdown of house prices. These include both UK and 13 regional estimates for: 5 types of house (Detached, semi-detached, terraced, flats and bungalows); 2 types of buyer (First time buyer and Former owner occupiers); 3 property ages (New, modern and older). All house price information is derived using Nationwide mortgage data. This data is extracted monthly for mortgages that are at the approvals stage and after the corresponding building survey has been completed. Approvals data are used as opposed to mortgage completions since they should give an earlier indication of current trends in prices in the housing market. Nationwide house price series utilise only owner occupied property information. In addition, properties that are not typical and may distort the series are also removed from the data set. Therefore, the following criteria are used to select which properties to include (known as cleaning): House purchases - remortgages and further advances are excluded Owner occupied properties Purchase prices below 1million vii

10 Properties sold at true market prices - right to buy sales at discounted price are excluded Floor size has to be within specified limits for a given type of property - e.g. a detached house has to have at least 400 sq. ft floor area. The number of cases that are used to calculate the average price for a given month will depend on the volume of monthly mortgage activity and out of these the cases that meet the criteria in the cleaning process. The monthly sample size will therefore vary from month to month. Nationwide has sufficient sample size to produce a representative house price series. The Nationwide Building Society is the 5th largest mortgage lender in the UK. Its share of the gross house purchase market has averaged around 9% over the last 3 years, reaching approximately 11% during the financial year 2000/01. The quarterly UK series for all houses uses 3 months of data and hence a much larger sample than the monthly figu res. The samples sizes for the other quarterly series will depend on what it is they are measuring, for example the series for first time buyers only considers properties being brought by first time buyers and hence this will have a smaller sample size than that used for the whole of the UK. It is for this reason that detailed breakdown of house prices are produced quarterly. ODPM Data for the house price index are based on data that come from a 5% sample survey of mortgage lenders. Excluded from the index calculation are remortgages, buy-to-let mortgages and purchases by sitting tenants (usually below market value). There are plans to substantially increase the sample size during 2002/3 from 5% to 100% (for lenders who can supply their data electronically). After a trial period, the ODPM hope to start publishing national and regional indices on a monthly basis Some further points: the index is only available as a non-seasonally adjusted series it is a 5% survey of all Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) members' new mortgage lending for house purchase (excluding remortgages and further loans) up until Q the survey was of building societies only (Building Societies Mortgage Completion Survey); since Q the Survey of Mortgage Lenders (SML) has covered all mortgage lenders. This change was necessary because of the number of large building societies that were converting to bank status. the SML is based on mortgages at the completion rather than approval stage (around 8,500-9,000 transactions per quarter) published quarterly from 1968Q2 onwards weights are updated annually based on transactions over the previous three years the first-time-borrower versus existing owner occupier distinction was brought into the mix adjustment procedure in 1983 HM Land Registry The Residential Property Price Report provides a detailed and authoritative insight into what is actually happening to average prices and sales volumes in the residential property market for England and Wales. The report is intended to complement information available from other sources. Any comparison with other data should have regard to the differences in volume, timeliness and coverage of contributing transactions. The data in the main report, which covers the whole of England and Wales, are broken down by property type and by County and Unitary Authority, to include the new Unitary Authorities introduced on April 1, The figures also vii

11 incorporate average prices and number of sales within Greater London by individual London Boroughs. Sales in this context are taken to mean the transfer of ownership for value of freehold and long leasehold residential properties, whether or not the purchase was supported by a mortgage. A breakdown of the average sale prices of old and new properties by property type is also incorporated. No weighting or adjustment is applied to the information collected to reflect any seasonal or other factors. Therefore the price data can be said to be actual unadjusted averages, drawn from the great majority of all residential sales in England and Wales completed during the period. Sources of house price data Halifax house price index Nationwide house price index Office of the Deputy Prime Minister HM Land Registry For further information please contact Gavin Berman on x vii

12 II The 2001 Census of Population: first results The Office for National Statistics published the first results from the 2001 Census on Monday 30 September. 1 These show the age and gender of the population of the UK, England and Wales, regional and local authority level as at Census Day, 29 April Equivalent figures from Scotland and Northern Ireland were published on the same day by the General Register Office for Scotland, 2 and Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency. 3 The 2001 Census found a lower than expected population of the UK. The total number of UK residents on Census day was put at 58.8 million. Previous projections had put the population at around 60 million. The National Statistics website contains several hundred pages and charts, comparing the structure of the population at regional and local level to the national average, as well as a series of 'top ten' lists based on the population data. Users can download the data, and consult detailed information on demographic changes and census methodology. The populations of the individual countries in the UK on Census day are put at: England 49,139,000 Scotland 5,062,000 Wales 2,903,000 Northern Ireland 1,685,000 For the first time the number aged 60 and over was greater than the number under 16. The population of the UK grew by 4.3% over the last 20 years. However, this growth has not been even across the country. It has been particularly strong in the South and South-West, while there has been falling population in Scotland, the North-East and the North-West over the last 20 years. The Census results under-pin the mid-2001 population estimates which were released on 10 October The next set of Census results, 'Key Statistics for Local Authorities' is scheduled for release on 13 February The detailed 2001 Census results will include Constituency Profiles. These will be released during 2003 (after the local authority statistics) and will provide a printed volume with a brief statistical summary of each current Westminster constituency, including some comparative measures. The electronic supplements will also give Key Statistics, Census Area Statistics, and reference maps for each constituency and will be available from the National Statistics website. It is the ONS intention to issue a further report based on any new constituency boundaries adopted for a General Election. % South West East South East Population growth by region 1981 to N Ireland E Midlands London Wales W Midlands Yorks & Humb UK average Scotland North West North East viii

13 United Kingdom 2001 Census top tens (local authorities) Most densely populated persons per km 2 1 Kensington and Chelsea Islington Hammersmith and Fulham Hackney Lambeth Tower Hamlets Camden Southwark City of Westminster Wandsworth 7440 Highest No males per female sex ratio (m/f) 1 Richmondshire Rutland UA Limavady Bridgnorth Rushmoor Reading UA Magherafelt Hart Shetland Islands Forest Heath 1.01 Least densely populated persons per km 2 1 Highland 8 2 Western Isles 9 3 Argyll & Bute 13 4 Shetland Islands 15 5 Orkney Islands 19 6 Scottish Borders 23 7 Dumfries & Galloway 23 8 Eden 23 9 Powys Perth & Kinross 27 Highest No females per male sex ratio (m/f) 1 Eastbourne Rother Belfast Worthing Arun Christchurch Glasgow City Wirral East Devon Sefton 0.89 Highest proportion of persons aged under 16 1 Derry 26.8% 2 Newry & Mourne 26.6% 3 Newham 26.2% 4 Magherafelt 26.1% 5 Strabane 26.0% 6 Cookstown 26.0% 7 Omagh 25.9% 8 Dungannon 25.8% 9 Limavady 25.6% 10 Blackburn with Darwen UA 25.2% Highest proportion of persons of retirement age 1 Christchurch 33.1% 2 Rother 32.0% 3 East Devon 30.3% 4 West Somerset 29.9% 5 Tendring 29.4% 6 Arun 29.0% 7 North Norfolk 28.9% 8 East Dorset 28.7% 9 West Dorset 27.7% 10 Eastbourne 27.4% For the purposes of these calculations: Isles of Scilly is aggregated with Penwith; City of London is aggregated with City of Westminster. Highest proportion of persons aged under 1 1 Newham 1.73% 2 Hackney 1.68% 3 Tower Hamlets 1.55% 4 Strabane 1.51% 5 Omagh 1.48% 6 Lewisham 1.48% 7 Greenwich 1.48% 8 Luton UA 1.47% Richmond upon 9 Thames 1.45% Kensington and 10 Chelsea 1.44% Highest proportion of persons aged 85 and over 1 Worthing 4.6% 2 Rother 4.6% 3 Eastbourne 4.4% 4 Arun 4.2% 5 East Devon 4.1% 6 Christchurch 4.1% 7 Torbay UA 3.8% 8 West Somerset 3.8% 9 Tendring 3.7% 10 Bournemouth UA 3.6% Source: For further information please contact Richard Cracknell on x ix

14 Sources of Asylum and Immigration Statistics Library publications The Social and General Statistics Section regularly produces a statistical briefing note of trends in asylum applications and decisions. This Standard Note is updated quarterly following the publication of Home Office quarterly asylum data (see below). 1 Regularly published sources of official statistics Asylum Statistics is an annual Home Office statistical bulletin that provides the principal data concerning asylum applications, decisions, appeals, asylum support, detention, removals and settlement. From 2001, data has been included about cases received at the Oakington Reception Centre, the speed of initial decisions and appeals, and cases reconsidered by the Home Office following an initial decision. European comparisons as to the number of asylum seekers are also made. Further detail is provided about asylum seekers applying for, or in receipt of, National Asylum Support Service (NASS) funding, and on the age and gender of applicants by nationality. The 2001 edition also contains updated information regarding asylum seekers in detention and the outcomes of appeals, again by nationality. 2 The Home Office publishes quarterly Asylum Statistics, providing provisional data for the previous three month period as well as more detailed monthly trends of asylum applications and decisions. 3 Control of Immigration Statistics is an annual series of Command Papers concerned with immigration control statistics. It is designed to accompany the annual Home Office statistical bulletin of the same name. Both publications provide data on entry clearance applications, applications for asylum and their outcome, decisions on variation of leave applications, and the demographic characteristics of persons accepted for settlement in the United Kingdom. 4 International Migration presents a range of statistics on flows of international migrants to and from the United Kingdom during the last ten years. The volume uses three main sources of data: (a) the International Passenger Survey, (b) Home Office data on asylum seekers and persons entering the UK as short-term visitors but who were subsequently granted an extension of stay for a year or longer for other reasons (e.g. as asylum seekers, students, or on the basis of marriage), and (c) estimates of migration between the UK and the Irish Republic. 5 Persons Granted British Citizenship is an annual Home Office statistical bulletin which provides summary statistics on applications for, and grants/refusals of, British citizenship over the last ten years. Data is also presented by the basis of grant, previous nationality, grants by age, and other grants of citizenship. 6 Internet resources The Research, Development and Statistics Directorate (RDS) of the Home Office publishes the main official sources of asylum and immigration statistics on their website, as well as a number of other publications of interest. 7 The Immigration and Nationality Directorate (IND) of the Home Office aims to regulate entry to, and settlement in, the UK effectively in the interests of sustainable growth, and social inclusion. The IND website contains a number of sources of useful information, for example the 1951 Refugee Convention, the x

15 1999 Immigration and Asylum Act, the work of NASS, and general advice on immigration matters. 8 The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) maintains a comprehensive website containing a range of statistical and research material, including annual, quarterly and monthly statistics on refugees, asylum seekers and others of concern to UNHCR. The website also includes refugee estimates, new arrivals, voluntary repatriation and resettlement, information on asylum applications submitted and refugee status determination as well as demographic characteristics of refugees and their location. 9 The Inter-Governmental Consultations on Asylum, Refugee and Migration Policies in Europe, North America and Australia (IGC) is an informal nondecision making forum (of 16 participants and UNHCR) for information exchange and policy co-ordination with respect to asylum, refugee and migration. The IGC Secretariat publishes annual asylum data for most developed countries, although this has not been updated for some time. 10 Home Office The migrant population in the UK: Fiscal Effects (RDS Occasional Paper No. 77, 2002) London Research Centre Refugees and Asylum Seekers: Studies in London (1999) Office for National Statistics Migration within England and Wales using the ONS Longitudinal Study (2000) Scottish Office Study of the Impact of Migration in Rural Scotland (1999) Tony Champion et. al. The Determinants of Migration Flows in England: A review of existing data and evidence (prepared for DETR) (1998) To find out more: For advice on asylum, immigration and other migration statistics, contact Ross Young at youngr@parliament.uk or telephone ext To view any of the Library s statistical publications, telephone ext Other publications Other recent publications of interest held in the Library s Social and General Statistics Section include: Foreign and Commonwealth Office/Home Office Joint Entry Clearance Unit Entry Clearance Statistics (2000) Gail McLaughlan and John Salt Migration policies towards highly skilled foreign workers (prepared for Home Office) (2002) Health Control Unit, Heathrow Airport Annual Report (various years from 1995) Home Office International migration and the United Kingdom: Recent patterns and trends (RDS Occasional Paper No. 75, 2001) Home Office Migration: An economic and social analysis (RDS Occasional Paper No. 67, 2001) xi

16 1.1 Agricultural Output and Incomes Total income from farming (TIFF) in 2001 recovered from its all time low in the previous year. In spite of the slight rise the 2001 figure means that apart from 2000 TIFF remains lower than any other year on the current series, which goes back to Strictly consistent figures are not available, but TIFF in 2000 was probably as low or lower than at any time since the depression in the late 1930s. The 2001 increase was insufficient to change this significantly. The volume of gross output increased by over 25% between 1973 and 1995 but has recently fallen; in 2001 it was around 6% lower than in the previous year. The sectors with the largest increases since 1973 were cereals and other crops. The largest fall was in horticulture. Real farm incomes in the UK at 2000 prices, 1973 to 2001 Total income from farming (TIFF) TIFF per wholetime person equivalent million Agricultual output volume indices for the UK, =100 Total production of: Cereals Other Crops Potatoes Horticulture Livestock Livestock Products (a) This also includes capital formation in livestock, other agricultural activities and inseparable non-agricultural activities Source: Agriculture in the UK 2002, DEFRA website version Table 7.1 Gross output at basic prices (a) ,070 22, ,367 12, ,779 10, ,180 25, ,575 23, ,317 13, ,352 9, ,358 10, ,540 6, ,710 7,861 Source: DEFRA Agriculture in the UK 2002 Chart 2.1 Last updated: March 2002 Next Update: Winter 2002 billion 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 UK Farm Incomes to 2001 TIFF TIFF per head per head 27,500 25,000 22,500 20,000 17,500 15,000 12,500 10,000 7,500 5,000 2,500 0 Contact: Richard Cracknell x

17 1.2 Agricultural Labour The total labour force in UK agriculture has decreased in each year since Between June 2000 and June 2001 there was a fall of 7,000, or 1.3% in the total agriculture labour force. While the number of farmers, partners, directors and spouses fell by 0.3% in the year to June 2001, the decline in regular workers was much greater, 6.2%. Changes in the way in which statistics have been compiled mean that results from 1998 are not directly consistent with earlier years. There is an additional discontinuity in Labour force in Agriculture: Major and minor holdings in the UK (a) At June each year Thousands Thousands Labour force in agriculture, UK Salaried managers Casual and seasonal workers Regular workers Workers Farmers, partners, directors and spouses Total labour force Farmers, partners, directors and spouses (a) (a) (a) (a) (b) (a) Results from 1998 are not consistent with previous years, due to changes in the labour questions on the June Agricultural and Horticultural Census, and due to revisions made to English and Welsh results. (b) Results for 2001 including the effect of improvements in coverage of data for England are not comparable with previous years Last updated: March 2002 Next Update: March 2003 Contact: Richard Cracknell x.4632 Source: Agriculture in the UK 2002, DEFRA 2

18 2.1 Police Numbers In March 2002 police strength stood at over 129,600, the highest ever number of full time equivalent officers. Total police strength generally increased during the 1980 s until it peaked at just over 128,000 in March After falling from this peak throughout the 1990s, total police service strength, including secondments, has risen in each period since March Police forces recruited 10,215 officers over the 12 months to March 2002, 38 per cent more than the previous year and the most since The proportion of women in the police service in England and Wales has steadily increased over the years. From 7% in March 1977 to 18% by March On 31 March 2002, there were 3,386 minority ethnic officers in the 43 police forces of England and Wales. This is an increase of fourteen per cent on the previous year. Ethnic minority strength as a proportion of total police service strength has increased from 1.0% in 1989 to 2.6% by March Total police officer strength in the police service, England and Wales Includes secondments within police service Police officer strength (FTE) Constables All ranks Mar , ,631 Mar , ,158 Mar , ,814 Mar , ,096 Mar , ,170 Mar , ,682 Mar , , , , , , ,000 Police officer strength , all ranks, England & Wales number at March each year Last updated: September 2002 Next Update: Spring 2003 Contact: Gavin Berman x.3851 Note: Sources: FTE - Full time equivalents. Police Service Strength, England & Wales, Home Office Statistical Bulletin, 3

19 2.2 Police funding Government provision for police forces in England and Wales consists of all police grants, Standard Spending Assessments (SSA) and damping grants. Real terms government funding of police forces fell between and , but has risen in each year since and this trend is set to continue until at least Net revenue expenditure, in real terms, has increased every year since In the rise in net expenditure was higher than at any time since Police funding and expenditure in real prices, m, England & Wales Government provision for police forces Annual % change Police SSA Home Office provision Total Net revenue expenditure Funding Expenditure * 2,960 3,252 6,212 5, * 3,064 3,581 6,645 6, % 7.9% * 3,367 3,693 7,060 6, % 4.6% * 3,394 3,827 7,220 6, % 2.7% * 3,527 3,903 7,430 6, % 3.3% ,450 4,016 7,466 6, % -0.4% ,438 3,967 7,404 6, % 1.6% ,432 3,965 7,397 6, % 0.5% ,391 4,019 7,410 6, % 0.2% ,447 3,992 7,439 7, % 2.8% ,470 4,110 7,580 7, % 1.9% ,681 4,459 8,140 7, % 3.0% ,778 4,645 8,423 n/a 3.5% n/a ,835 4,640 8,476 n/a 0.6% n/a Notes: * Before Welsh SSAs were unhypothecated at county level and payments to police authorities in Wales were agreed by constituent counties. SSAs for Welsh police authorities are included in the table only from , in which they were 160 million Source: Personal communication with Home Office Last updated: December 2001 Next Update: December 2002 Contact: Gavin Berman x

20 2.3 Recorded crime The table below shows the number of notifiable offences recorded based on coverage and rules in use from 1 st April million offences were recorded by the police in the 12 months to March 2002, a rise of 7% over the previous 12 months. It is estimated that at least five of these percentage points are due to changes in police recording practices. This follows a 2.5% fall in the 12 months to March 2001 Recorded violent crime rose in the 12 months to March 2002 by almost eleven per cent. Theft of and from vehicles accounted for almost 20% of all recorded crimes in the year to March Other theft accounted for almost a quarter of all recorded crimes. Total recorded crime by offence, 12 months to March England & Wales March 1999 March 2000 March 2001 March 2002 Violence against the person 502, , , ,154 Sexual offences 36,174 37,792 37,311 41,425 Robbery 66,835 84,277 95, ,375 Total violent crime 605, , , ,954 Burglary 953, , , ,535 Total theft & handling stolen goods 2,191,439 2,223,620 2,145,372 2,267,055 Theft of and from vehicles 1,077,726 1,043, , ,323 Fraud & forgery 279, , , ,399 Criminal damage 879, , ,087 1,064,470 Total property crime 4,303,712 4,410,543 4,260,810 4,527,459 Drug offences 135, , , ,332 Notifiable offences recorded by the police Other notifiable offences 63,635 65,671 63,188 65,337 Total all offences 5,109,089 5,301,187 5,170,843 5,527,082 Drug offences Other notifiable offences Violent crime Source: Crime in England and Wales, 2001/02, 07/02 Home Office Statistical Bulletin & earler editions Other property offences Burglary Last updated: July 2002 Other theft Theft of and from vehicles Next Update: Summer 2003 Contact: Gavin Berman x

21 2.4 International comparisons - Homicide The police in England & Wales recorded 1.5 homicides per 100,000 population between 1998 and The homicide rate in Ireland was slightly lower at 1.4 per 100,000. In Scotland 2.2 homicides per 100,000 population were recorded. In Northern Ireland the figure reached 3.1. The rates in both of these countries exceed the EU average of 1.7. Of the countries shown in the table the USA had the highest homicide rate over the period , while Japan recorded the lowest number of homicides per 100,000 population In Russia over the same period the homicide rate was 20.5 while in South Africa it reached Homicides recorded by the police (per 100,000 population) in selected countries Country average per year 1998 to 2000 Japan Germany Ireland (Eire) Netherlands Italy England & Wales France Canada Australia Scotland Spain Northern Ireland U.S.A EU Member States average Homicides per 100,000 population Source: International Comparisons of Criminal Justice Statistics 2000, HO Stats Bulletin 5/ J D I E&W It F N C A S E NI USA Last updated: July 2002 Next Update: Summer 2003 Contact: Gavin Berman x

22 2.5 Drug misuse In the six months to March 2001 over 40,000 drugs users started agency episodes in Great Britain, a marginal decrease of 0.6% on the previous six month period. There were increases in England (0.4%) and Wales (10%) and a decrease in Scotland (10%) The number of drugs users starting agency episodes in the six months to March 2001 is almost double the figure recorded in the six-month period to September Over this period the number of drugs users starting agency episodes doubled in both England and Scotland, while in Wales the increase was 62%. The number of users starting agency episodes in Great Britain reached a peak of 40,616 in the six months to September Between 1990 and 2000 the number of seizures of controlled substances doubled from 60,859 to 124,345. Cannabis was the controlled substance seized most frequently, accounting for 73% of all seizures in 2000; heroin (13%) and ecstasy (8%). Users starting agency episodes in Great Britain 6 months to end of Great Britain England Wales Scotland Mar ,582 17,864 1,261 2,457 Mar ,440 20,733 1,320 3,387 Mar ,856 23,313 1,288 4,255 Mar ,684 25,925 1,157 4,618 Mar ,765 23,916 1,068 4,781 Mar ,802 28,499 1,412 4,891 Mar ,055 31,815 1,913 5,327 Mar ,181 33,234 1,954 4,993 Source: Department of Health Statistical Bulletin 2002/7 Statistics from the Regional Drug Misuse Database Users starting agency episodes, Great Britain 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, Last updated: September 2002 Next Update: January 2002 Contact: Ross Young x.4313 Sep 1993 Mar 1994 Sep 1994 Mar 1995 Sep 1995 Mar 1996 Sep 1996 Mar 1997 Sep 1997 Mar 1998 Sep 1998 Mar 1999 Sep 1999 Mar 2000 Sep 2000 Mar

23 2.6 Prison population The prison population has increased steadily since the beginning of 2001 and reached record levels at the end of May. The average prison population in May 2002 was 8% higher than it had been twelve months earlier. The prison population in post-war England and Wales has been rising steadily. Over the past decade, however, this increase has become more marked. Between 1991 and 2001 the average prison population increased by almost forty five per cent. In England and Wales there were 124 prisoners per 100,000 population in 2000, the highest rate in Western Europe, along with Portugal. The US has the highest rates in the world (700) while Cyprus (43) and Japan (47) have the lowest. 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Last updated: September 2002 Next Update: October 2002 Contact: Gavin Berman x.3851 Prison population, England and Wales, Prison population , by year and sex of prisoner Males Females Total Females as a % ,904 1,407 43, % ,163 1,607 46, % ,336 1,561 45, % ,240 1,577 45, % ,005 1,561 44, % ,983 1,811 48, % ,068 1,979 51, % ,019 2,262 55, % ,439 2,675 61, % ,194 3,105 65, % ,523 3,247 64, % ,252 3,350 64, % ,560 3,741 66, % 2001 May 62,330 3,690 66, % June 62,690 3,710 66, % July 63,290 3,800 67, % August 63,190 3,870 67, % September 63,507 3,958 67, % October 64,020 4,040 68, % November 64,430 4,020 68, % December 62,180 3,870 66, % 2002 January 63,810 4,060 67, % February 65,700 4,150 69, % March 65,580 4,210 69, % April 66,220 4,370 70, % May 66,710 4,400 71, % Sources: Prison statistics, England & Wales 2000 Prison population brief, England & Wales 8

24 3.1 Defence employment There have been large-scale reductions in the size of UK regular and reserve force since These follow from the restructuring set out in Britain s Defence for the 90s and the Defence Costs Study. Between 1 April 1990 and 1 April 2002, the number of UK regular forces fell by 33%. Over the same period the number of regular reserves has fallen by over 10% whilst the number of volunteer reserves has fallen by almost a half. In the years between 1990 and 2002 Naval service employment fell by over a third. Army employment fell by just under 30%, while RAF employment fell by more than 40%. Between 1980 and 1990 naval service employment fell by 12%, and Army employment by four per cent. Over this period the RAF saw a slight increase in its employment numbers. 160, , ,000 UK Armed forces manpower, UK Regular Armed Forces Manpower at 1st April Army (a) (b) % change Naval Service 71,900 63,200 42,800 42,400 41,600-34% Officers 10,100 10,100 7,700 7,800 7,800-23% Other ranks 61,800 53,100 35,200 34,700 33,900-36% Army 159, , , , ,100-28% Officers 17,100 17,400 13,900 13,900 14,100-19% Other ranks 142, ,400 96,200 95,600 96,000-29% Royal Air Force 89,700 89,700 54,700 53,700 53,000-41% Officers 14,900 15,300 11,000 11,000 10,900-29% Other ranks 0 74, , , , , % 0% Total Officers 42,100 42,800 32,500 32,600 32,700-24% Total Other Ranks 278, , , , ,000-35% Total Regular Forces 320, , , , ,000-33% Notes: (a) Excludes locally entered personnel and Gurkhas. (b) Figures may not sum to totals shown due to rounding. Sources: Defence Statistics 2002 (DASA) Table ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 Naval service RAF Last updated: October 2002 Next Update: Autumn 2003 Contact: Gavin Berman x

25 3.2 Defence expenditure The table shows international comparisons of defence expenditure based on the NATO definition of military expenditure. Expenditure as a proportion of GDP has fallen since the 1980 s in all NATO member countries except Turkey. Between 1985 and 1989 average defence expenditure in NATO member countries was 4.8% of GDP. In 2001 this had fallen to 2.6% Over the period shown defence expenditure is falling in all countries except for a slight rise in Italy and more substantial increases in Greece and Turkey. Defence Expenditure in selected NATO countries as % of GDP (est) Canada Spain Germany Netherlands Italy Portugal UK France US Greece Turkey Defence expenditure 2001 (% of GDP) NATO Europe NATO Total Sources: NATO press release M-DPC-2(2001)156 - 'Financial & Economic Data Relating to NATO Defence' Table 3 and earlier editions Last updated: December Next Update: December C E D Nl I P UK F US Gr T NATO EU NATO Total Contact: Gavin Berman x