Forest Heath: Recent Trends in the Economy, Population and Housing

Transcription

1 AnalyticsCambridge Forest Heath: Recent Trends in the Economy, Population and Housing [updated October 2012] Report is produced by: Richard Potter and Trevor Baker Analytics Cambridge, 8 Leyburn Close, Cambridge. CB1 9XR Phone: +44 (0) E:mail: richard.potter@analyticscambridge.co.uk Registered in England and Wales, Company Registration October 2012

2 Document control File 2012AnalysisofTrendsandForecastsforFHDC_V11. Version Date Main author Other author(s) Reviewer(s) 1 29/9/2012 Richard Potter Trevor Baker 2 1/10/2012 Richard Potter Trevor Baker 3 8/10/2012 Richard Potter Trevor Baker Chris Hodson, Dave Beighton Final 15/10/2012 Richard Potter Trevor Baker Chris Hodson 10 19/10/2012 Richard Potter 11 25/10/2012 Richard Potter 2

3 Contents 1 Summary Background Economy Gross Value Added Employment Unemployment Earnings Population Definitions and Data Sources Changes in Total Population Comparison with Other Areas Components of Population Change Migration Other Sources of Population Related Data Housing Numbers of Dwellings Household Numbers Tenure House Prices and affordability More Recent Forecasts Forecasts from the East of England Forecasting Model Interim 2011-based Subnational Population Projections Household Projections for Forest Heath Conclusions Appendix 1 Housing Requirements from the East of England Plan Appendix 2 Draft revision to the Regional Spatial Strategy for the East of England, March

4 Figures Figure 3.1: Gross Value Added per head of Population, Cambridgeshire and Suffolk 13 Figure 3.2: Gross Value Added for Six Industries in Cambridgeshire and Suffolk, Figure 3.3: Number in Employment in Forest Heath, from Figure 3.4: Unemployment Rates for Forest Heath, East of England and Great Britain, 17 from 2009 Figure 3.5: Job Seeker Allowance Claimants for Forest Heath, from Figure 3.6: Job Seekers Allowance Claimants as a Per Centage of Economically Active, for Forest Heath from 2004 Figure 3.7 Average Weekly Earnings for Forest Heath from Figure 3.8 Comparing Change in Average Weekly Earnings for Forest Heath with those of the East of England and Great Britain, from Indexed so 2002 values = 100 Figure 4.1 Births, Deaths and Natural Change in Forest Heath 2001 to Figure 4.2 Total Period Fertility Rates, Forest Heath, Suffolk and East of England 24 Figure 4.3 Forest Heath Population Moves In and Out, Within the United Kingdom 26 Figure 4.4 Forest Heath International Migration 27 Figure 4.5: Numbers of Pupils at State Schools, 2001 to Figure 5.1: Housing Completions in Forest Heath, 2004 to 2011 (published AMR) 30 Figure 5.2: Housing Completions in Forest Heath, Cumulative 2004 to 2011 (CLG) 31 Figure 5.3: Housing Completions in Cambridgeshire, Norfolk and Suffolk, Cumulative to 2011 (CLG) Figure 5.4: Housing Completions in the East of England, Cumulative 2004 to 2011 (CLG) 32 Figure 5.5: Mean House Prices 2001 to 2011 (CLG) 37 Figure 5.6: Lower quartile house prices 2001 to 2011 (CLG) 38 Figure 5.7: Ratio of lower quartile incomes to lower quartile house prices 2001 to (CLG) Figure 6.1 Forecast Numbers of Jobs, Forest Heath 42 Figure 6.2 Forecast Numbers of People, Forest Heath 43 Figure 6.3 Forecast Numbers of Dwellings, Forest Heath 43 Figure 6.4 Projected Number of People, Forest Heath 44 Figure 6.5 Projected Households for Forest Heath (2008 based) 46 Page

5 Tables Page Table 3.1: Employee Jobs (2008) 15 Table 4.1 Births in Forest Heath and Total Period Fertility Rates (TPFR) 23 Table 5.1: RSS Required Build Rates Counties and East of England 29 Table 5.2: Cumulative Delivery against RSS Requirements 2004/05 to 2010/11 32 Table 5.3: Dwelling by Tenure 2007/08 Cambridge sub-region (numbers) 33 Table 5.4: Dwelling by Tenure 2001 Cambridge sub-region (per cent) 34 Table 5.4a: Dwelling by Tenure 2001 Cambridge sub-region (per cent) Updated using English Housing Survey 35 Table 5.4b: Broad Estimate of Households by Tenure Table 5.5: Households on Housing Needs Registers, in Cambridge sub-region 36 Table A1.1 POLICY H1: Regional Housing Provision 2001 to 2021 Norfolk and Suffolk 49 Table A1.2 POLICY H1: Regional Housing Provision 2001 to 2021 Including Cambridgeshire 50 Table A2. Housing Provision in (parts of) the East of England,

6 Abbreviations Abbreviation AMR ASHE CLG EEDA EEFM ERPHO GVA HESA HNR HSSA LEP NHSCR NOMIS ONS PRDS RAF RSS SHMA TPFR USAF Meaning Annual Monitoring Report Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings Department for Communities and Local Government East of England Development Agency East of England Forecasting Model East of England Public Health Observatory Gross Value Added Higher Education Statistics Agency Housing Needs Register Housing Strategy Statistical Appendix Local Enterprise Partnership National Health Service Central Register National Online Manpower Information System Office for National Statistics Patient Register Data Service Royal Air Force Regional Spatial Strategy Strategic Housing Market Assessment Total Period Fertility Rate United States Air Force 6

7 1 Summary This report looks at the major recent changes in the economy, population and housing in Forest Heath. It also examines recent forecasts and how they might compare to previous forecasts in the Regional Spatial Strategy and for Forest Heath. Economy The latest Gross Value Added (GVA) figures are for The value per head in Cambridgeshire is 21,598 and for Suffolk is 16, The amount of GVA per head increased in both Cambridgeshire and Suffolk from 1997 to 2007 by 69.7% in Cambridgeshire and by 54.9% in Suffolk. From 2007 to 2009 the GVA per head has decreased slightly, by around 4% in each area. The GVA per head in 2009 still remains considerably higher than the 1997 level The number in employment in Forest Heath in April 2011 to March 2012 is 3,200, or 10.9% higher than in It is also 2,400 higher than the number in employment in period January to December The unemployment rate in Forest Heath is 5.1% (for the 12 months April 2011 to March 2012). Forest Heath s unemployment rate started to rise in 2007 when it was 3.2% (for July 2006 to June 2007). It rose to 5.6% for the period April 2009 to March Since then it has started to fall gradually to the present level For the number of Job Seeker Allowance claimants, the overall trend from 2009 has been downwards. From 2005 there was a general rise in the number of claimants, reaching 1,080 in February Since then there was a general decline, falling to 834 in May The number of claimants then rose to 1,031 in February However the figures from February to August 2012 show a fall in numbers to 867, a decline of 16% Now (April 2011 to March 2012) Forest Heath s unemployment rate is 1.5 per centage points lower than the East of England s and 3 per centage points lower than Great Britain s unemployment rate Earnings for residents of Forest Heath have increased by 40.1% since 2001, though earnings are lower than the averages for the East of England as a whole ( 528.5) and Great Britain ( 503.1) The average weekly earnings have increased most years from From 2002 to 2011 the average weekly earnings in Forest Heath have increased relatively faster than those for the East of England and Great Britain. 7

8 Population The latest population for Forest Heath, for mid-2011, is 60,000. The comparable estimate for residents in 2001 was 56,100 residents. This is an increase in population of 3,900, or 7% in this 10 year period When looking at population change for the 47 District Councils and Unitary Authorities in the East of England, the 7% population increase experienced by Forest Heath between 2011 and 2011 is exceeded by 30 of these and Forest Heath s relative growth was higher than 16 areas Looking at population change between the 2001 census based mid-year estimates and the results from the 2011 Census, the growth in Forest Heath s population placed it in approximately in the middle of that of other Local Authorities in England, it was ranked at the 159th fastest growing Local Authority out of the In 2011 there were 1,039 births to mothers living in Forest Heath. This is 262 more than in 2001, an increase of one third Total Period Fertility Rate (the hypothetical number of children an average woman would produce in her lifetime if current fertility rates continued) is 2.39 for Forest Heath for Natural change (births and deaths) has risen from under 258 in 2001 to 584 in Internal migration within the UK has changed so that the balance (which is a net inflow) has increased from around 200 a year ten years ago to 900 a year in 2009 to Estimates of international migration have shown a changing pattern also changed with the affect that the most recent figures for 2009 to 2010 also show a net inflow of The number on the electoral roll for Forest Heath was 35,469 in 2009, by December 2011 the number had risen to 39, The number of children at state schools is 5,421 as at September Over the last three years (2009 to 2011) there has been a slight increase in the number of younger children. 8

9 Housing The underlying trend has been increasing housing delivery in Forest Heath over the period 2005 to 2010, with a peak of 549 in 2007/08 and a lower peak of 454 in 2009/10. While the annual delivery is down between 2009/10 and 2010/11, the figure of 368 houses delivered in 2010/11 is the third highest recorded Housing Needs Register for Forest Heath has increased since 2001, though the peak figures were in 2006 and 2007, demonstrating a continuing demand for affordable housing in the district The estimated mean price of houses in Forest Heath in 2011 was 167,500 compared to 231,000 across the East of England as a whole. Since 2008 there has been considerable fluctuation in the direction of movement of house prices, however the mean house price in Forest Heath remained lower in 2011 than in The estimated average lower quartile house price in Forest Heath in 2011 was around 116,000 compared to 138,000 across the East of England as a whole Affordability of lower quartile properties in Forest Heath has increased since 2006 and this coincides with the higher delivery rates of housing in the district. Recent Forecasts Forecasts of future jobs from the East of England Forecasting Model were published in September The baseline and high migration scenarios from this for 2001 to 2021 are higher than those in the Regional Spatial Strategy, May The lost decade forecasts from these East of England Forecasting Model scenarios are lower Scenario forecasts of future jobs from the East of England Forecasting Model for 2011 to 2031 show increases ranging from 1,800 to 7,600. The March 2010 draft revision to the Regional Spatial Strategy for the East of England shows an indicative 6,600 net additional jobs for this period On 28 th September 2012, the Office for National Statistics released population projections based on results from the 2011 Census. These project the number of people living in Forest Heath between 2011 and 2021 to increase by 8,000 or 14%. 5,000 of this increase (about two thirds) will be caused by natural increase (more births than deaths) In order to compare results, the East of England Forecasting Model forecasts (September 2012) the population of Forest Heath increasing by between 8,100 and 9,000 people between 2011 and 2021, depending on the scenarios. These forecasts from the East of England Forecasting Model do not yet incorporate information from the 2011 Census of Population. 9

10 The most recent national household projections from the Department for Communities and Local Government are 2008 based and run to the period For the period 2011 to 2031 they project an increase of 7,200 households or 360 per year Policy H1 in the East of England Plan, May 2008, gives a figure for the minimum number of houses still to be built for the period April 2006 to March 2021 of 370 houses a year Policy H1 in the March 2010 draft revision to the Regional Spatial Strategy for the East of England shows a target for Forest Heath for the period 2011 to 2031 which averages 340 houses a year The East of England Forecasting Model (September 2012) has also, in its scenarios, forecasts of the number of houses needed for the period 2011 to These range from 7,500 to 8,200 averaging between 375 and 410 per year The range of forecast future house building for Forest Heath, from existing policies, forecasts and projections, lies between 340 to 410 dwellings per year.. 10

11 2 Background This report looks at the major recent changes in the economy, population and housing in Forest Heath. It also examines recent forecasts for these topics and how they might compare to previous forecasts for Forest Heath in the Regional Spatial Strategy The East of England Plan was published by the Secretary of State for Communities and Local Government in May The Plan set out the vision and strategic framework for growth to The region was expected to grow and the plan looked at a 10% increase in population, and a 20% increase in both households and jobs between 2001 and The plan had indicative targets for net growth in jobs for the period , including 18,000 for Mid Suffolk, St Edmundsbury and Forest Heath The housing policy (H1: Regional Housing Provision 2001 to 2021) had a minimum dwelling provision for Forest Heath as 6,400 dwellings. The plan indicated that, between April 2001 and March 2006, 810 dwellings had been built which averaged as 160 per year. From this, the minimum still to be built until April 2021 was 5,590 or 370 a year. (Appendix 1 provides a table with the housing growth from this for Forest Heath and surrounding areas) In May 2010 a draft revision to the Regional Spatial Strategy for the East of England was published 2. The Regional Assembly looked at a number of scenarios for the level and distribution of housing and jobs growth for the period Taking account of available evidence, advice from local authorities, and response to a public consultation on growth scenarios, the level of housing and jobs growth considered appropriate for the region to plan for in the period to 2031 were given in policies E1 (job growth) and H1 (Regional Housing Provision ) Policy E1 - Job Growth - dealt with the indicative net additional jobs forecast for and for Forest Heath this was 6,600. This was an indicative target for net growth in jobs for the period , to provide guidance to local authorities, as well as other delivery agencies in their policy development and decision-making on employment Policy H1 - Housing Provision - looked at Regional Housing Provision The general policy is that local planning authorities should plan for delivery of housing for at least 15 years from the date of adoption of the relevant development plan documents. For Forest Heath the total net increase target for the period April 2011 to March 2031 was 6,800 which equates to an annual average from April 2011 to March 2031 of 340 (Appendix 2 provides a table with the housing growth from this for Forest Heath and surrounding 1 See lanning/regional_spatial_strategy/ee_plan1.pdf 2 See %20version%20for%20website.pdf 11

12 areas) Forest Heath s Core Strategy is the first part of the Local Development Framework to be submitted to the Secretary of State. It was submitted in August As is always the case, the plan had an examination commenced in public which began on 15th December The purpose of the Examination was to test whether the submitted document was 'sound' In August 2011, Forest Heath considered that the Council was required to ensure the Single Issue Review was in general conformity with the East of England Plan. It was proposed that this could be undertaken by a review of Policy CS7 in its entirety (revisiting the overall housing requirement and the distribution of housing numbers). The Council agreed to review the overall housing provision for Forest Heath, as well as the housing distribution. With this option the overall housing target would need to remain in general conformity with the East of England Plan This report seeks to provide the most recent available information on the economy, population and housing. The Regional Spatial Strategy was produced using forecasts based on information running in general up to This paper looks at trends mainly since 2009, as well as recent forecasts. It compares trends from recent data and key information underlying the Regional Spatial Strategy for Forest Heath, in particular Policy E1 - Job Growth and Policy H1 - Housing Provision Initial work was undertaken in the Autumn of 2011 and completed in November and published by Forest Heath District Council 3. This report, carried out in September and October 2012 is an update to that to take account of more recent information, in particular the early results from the 2011 Census of Population which were published in July er_2011_analytics_cambridge 12

13 3 Economy This chapter on the economy reports on the most recent data available on key economic trends gross value added, jobs, unemployment, and wages. 3.2 Gross Value Added A key economic indicator for measuring the performance of an area or sector is Gross Value Added [GVA]. This is the value of goods and services produced by an area, sector or producer minus the cost of the raw materials and other inputs used to produce them. For sub-national GVA, the Office for National Statistics [ONS] uses an income-based measure. GVA is mainly composed of the income made by employees (earnings) and the business (profits/surplus) as a result of production. The smallest areas for which GVA figures are now available are Counties Figure 3.1 shows the GVA for both Cambridgeshire (excluding Peterborough) and Suffolk. At this spatial scale looking at both of the two areas gives a good indication of the impact on Forest Heath District. Forest Heath s relationship with surrounding areas is shown through its membership of both the New Anglia Local Enterprise Partnership 4 [LEP], which includes Suffolk, and the Greater Cambridge Greater Peterborough LEP 5. Figure 3.1: Gross Value Added per head of Population, Cambridgeshire and Suffolk Source: Office for National Statistics. Note: Cambridgeshire (excluding Peterborough). 4 See 5 See 13

14 3.2.3 The latest Gross Value Added figures are for 2009, published in December The value per head in Cambridgeshire is 21,598 and for Suffolk is 16,913. The amount of GVA per head increased in both Cambridgeshire and Suffolk from 1997 to 2007 by 69.7% in Cambridgeshire and by 54.9% in Suffolk. From 2007 to 2009 the GVA per head has decreased slightly, by around 4% in each area. The GVA per head in 2009 still remains considerably higher than the 1997 level More recent data is available for GVA per head at a regional level 7. For the East of England the GVA per head for 2010 is recorded as having increased by 2.5% from In order to get a view of the main economic structure in Forest Heath the Gross Value Added is broken down into six industries. The latest year for which these data are available is 2008, and they are shown for both Cambridgeshire and Suffolk in Figure 3.2. If the figures are simply averaged between the two counties they show that agriculture, forestry and fishing account for less than 2% of the total, production 17%, construction 6%, distribution, transport and communication 20% (higher in Suffolk), business services and finance 30% (higher in Cambridgeshire), and other service activities 24% (also higher in Cambridgeshire). Figure 3.2: Gross Value Added for Six Industries in Cambridgeshire and Suffolk, 2008 Source: ONS annual business inquiry employee analysis, via NOMIS. 6 See /tsd-regional-gva-dec-2011.html 7 See /sbd-regional-gva-dec-2011.pdf 14

15 3.2.6 Information is available about employees in business for Forest Heath in 2008 from the Office for National Statistics annual business inquiry. Table 3.1 shows, for employees, the importance of service industries - in particular distribution, hotels & restaurants and other services. Table 3.1: Employee Jobs (2008) Forest Heath, employee jobs Forest Heath % East of England % Great Britain % Manufacturing 2, Construction 1, Services 18, Distribution, hotels & restaurants 6, Transport & communications Finance, IT, other business activities 3, Public admin, education & health 4, Other services 2, Tourism-related+ 5, Source: Office for National Statistics. Notes: + Tourism consists of industries that are also part of the services industry 3.3 Employment A starting point for looking at the impact of the economy on people is to look at the number of people who are economically active. There are three essential categories of people who are economically active they can be in employees in employment, they can be self-employed, or they can be unemployed. Unemployment is dealt with in the next section The latest figures for the number of people in employment covers for the 12 8 period April 2011 to March The information from the Office for National Statistics shows that for Forest Heath 32,600 people (men and women) are in employment The number in employment in 2004 was at slightly over 29,000. Between April 2005 and March 2006 the number increased to 32,700. There then followed a period of decline until the 12 months January 2007 to December 2007 when the number in employment was 26,400. Since then the number in employment has gradually increased to the most recent level of 32,600 (see Figure 3.3) The number in employment in the period April 2011 to March 2012 is 3,200 or 10.9% higher than in It is also 2,400 higher than the number in employment in period January 2009 to December The employment data is shown for 12 month periods to allow comparisons. Sometimes employment and other data 15

16 Figure 3.3: Number in Employment in Forest Heath, from 2004 Source: Office for National Statistics Looking in more detail, for the latest figures for the 12 month period April 2011 to March 20 12, it is estimated that 27,700 people were in employment and 4,400 were selfemployed The percentage of the population (aged 16 and over) who are economically active in Forest Heath is 78.2% while for the East of England it is 74.3% and for Great Britain it is 70.2%. 9 These numbers on people who are economically active come from the ONS annual population survey data. The sampling error associated this, as with other survey data, is the reason why the two estimates do not add to the figure of 32,600 quoted in para

17 3.4 Unemployment The unemployment rate 10 in Forest Heath is 5.1% (for the 12 month period April 2011 to March 2012). Forest Heath s unemployment rate started to rise in 2007 when it was 3.2% (for July 2006 to June 2007). It rose to 5.6% for the period April 2009 to March Since then it has started to fall gradually to the present level (see Figure 3.4). Figure 3.4: Unemployment Rates for Forest Heath, East of England and Great Britain, from 2009 Source: ONS Annual Population Survey, via NOMIS Note: for those aged 16 and over. % is a proportion of economically active Looking at recent trends in unemployment rates from April 2009 to March 2010, the unemployment rate for the East of England has remained steady at close to 6.6%. The unemployment rate for Great Britain fell to 7.6% in April 2010 to March 2011 but since then has risen to 8.1% for April 2011 to March Comparing the unemployment rate between Forest Heath and the East of England and Great Britain after the rates started to rise in 2007, it can be seen that although the unemployment rate has risen in Forest Heath, it has risen more in the East of England and for Great Britain. In 2007, Forest Heath s unemployment rate was 1.1 per centage points lower than the East of England s and 2.1 per centage points lower than Great Britain s. Now (April 2011 to March 2012) Forest Heath s unemployment rate is 1.5 per centage 10 The definition of unemployment here is that of the International Labour Organisation. It is those people without a job, want a job, have actively sought work in the last four weeks and are available to start work in the next two weeks; or who out of work, have found a job and are waiting to start it in the next two weeks. 17

18 points lower than the East of England s and 3 per centage points lower than Great Britain s unemployment rate Another way of looking at unemployment is through the number of Job Seeker Allowance claimants. Figure 3.5 shows the number of Job Seeker Allowance claimants in Forest Heath. In August 2005 the number of claimants in the District was just under 332. From 2005 there was a general rise in the number, reaching 1,080 in February Since then there has been a general decline, the number of claimants falling to 834 in May The number of claimants then rose to 1,031 in February However the figures from February to August 2012 show a fall in numbers to 867, a decline of 16% The overall trend from 2009 has been downwards, as can be seen from the trend line in Figure 3.5. Figure 3.5: Job Seeker Allowance Claimants for Forest Heath, from 2009 Source: from ONS claimant count, obtained from NOMIS Figure 3.6 shows the unemployment rate in Forest Heath, the East of England and Great Britain from In general the unemployment rate for all three areas has increased from 2004 to the period April 2009 to March Compared to April 2009 to March 2010 the unemployment rate in Forest Heath is now (April 2011 to March 2012) slightly lower at 5.1% compared to 5.6%. The unemployment rates for the Eats of England and Great Britain are the same or slightly higher than in April 2009 to March

19 Figure 3.6: Job Seekers Allowance Claimants as a Per Centage of Economically Active, for Forest Heath from 2004 Source: ONS claimant count with rates and proportions, via NOMIS 3.5 Earnings Average weekly earnings 11 in Forest Heath are, for 2011, Earnings are lower than the averages for the East of England as a whole ( 528.5) and Great Britain ( 503.1). Earnings for residents of Forest Heath have increased by 40.1% since Figure 3.7 shows the average weekly earnings for Forest Heath from The average weekly earnings have increased every year with the exception of between 2004 and 2005 when they fell from 364 to 336. From 2002 to 2011 the average weekly earnings in Forest Heath have increased relatively faster than those for the East of England and Great Britain. This is shown in Figure 3.8 where we compare the change in the earnings for the three areas, setting each to be 100 at the 2002 start. 11 The source of this data is the Office for National Statistics annual survey of hours and earnings - resident analysis 19

20 Figure 3.7 Average Weekly Earnings for Forest Heath from 2002 Source: Office for National Statistics, via NOMIS Figure 3.8 Comparing Change in Average Weekly Earnings for Forest Heath with those of the East of England and Great Britain, from Indexed so 2002 values = 100 Source: Original data is from the Office for National Statistics, via NOMIS 20

21 4 Population This chapter deals with key issues about the population and change numbers of people as estimated by Office for National Statistics and Suffolk County Council; how change has taken place compared to other Districts, and components of change such as births, deaths and migration. 4.2 Definitions and Data Sources The number of people in an area at any one time varies in many ways according to factors such as school hours, work patterns, shopping habits, and holiday arrangements This report uses information looking at the resident population, which includes all people who usually live in an area, whatever their nationality. People arriving into an area from outside the UK are only included in the population estimates if their total stay in the UK is 12 months or more. So visitors and short term migrants (those who enter the UK for 3 to 12 months) are not included. Similarly, people who leave the UK are only excluded from the population estimates if they remain outside the UK for 12 months or more. This is consistent with the United Nations recommended definition of an international long-term migrant. Of particular relevance for Forest Heath is that members of UK and non-uk armed forces stationed in the UK are included in the population and UK forces stationed outside the UK are excluded. Students are taken to be resident at their term time address, so if they are at college or University outside Forest Heath they are counted as living in the District where their college or University is Information on the numbers of residents in an area is gathered comprehensively through the Censuses of Population which take place every 10 years. Initial results from the 2011 Census were published in July Population estimates are published for years between Censuses (e.g. for the individual years 2002 to 2010). Some comprehensive data allowing these estimates to be made comes from information on births and deaths. But comprehensive information on the movement of people (migration) is not collected, hence the provision of population estimates between Censuses. After the publication of Census information previous population estimates are revised in the light of this more accurate information. At the time of writing this report (October 2012) a revised series of population estimates for 2001 to 2011, which takes account of information from the 2011 Census, has not been published. Until the revised population estimates for 2002 to 2010 changes in population totals can only be considered for the Census based estimates for 2001 and

22 4.3 Changes in Total Population The most recent estimates of the population of Forest Heath are for mid-2011, published on 25 th September These are based on the results from the Census of Population for These estimates for mid-2011 are for Forest Heath s population to be 60, The comparable estimate for residents in 2001 was 56,100 residents. This indicates an increase in population of 3,900 persons, or an increase of 7% in this 10 year period The next section looks at how the change in Forest Heath s population compares to other Local Authorities in England. The main components of change in population are births, deaths and migration. The later sections look at each of these in turn. 4.4 Comparison with Other Areas Looking at population change between the 2001 and 2011 Census-based estimates, it is possible to compare Forest Heath s population with other Local Authorities in the region Between 2001 and 2011 mid-year estimates Suffolk s population increased by 60,200 or 9%. This was a higher per centage increase in population numbers than the East of England as a whole, whose population grew by 8.6%. Of the 11 upper tier Local Authorities in the Region, Suffolk s relative population increase was in the middle with five areas growing more and five growing less When looking at population change for the 47 District Councils and Unitary Authorities in the East of England, the relative population increase experienced by Forest Heath (7% as noted in para 4.3.2), is exceeded by 30 of these and Forest Heath s relative growth was higher than 16 areas Forest Heath s population change can also be compared to other Local Authorities in England. England is covered by 326 District and Unitary Local Authorities. The population change can be compared between the 2001 census based mid-year estimates and the results from the 2011 Census 14. On this basis the growth in Forest Heath s population placed it in approximately in the middle of that of other Local Authorities, it was ranked at the 159 th fastest growing Local Authority out of the See census-based-/stb---mid-2011-census-based-population-estimates-for-england-and-wales.html 13 The Office for National Statistics has produced a number of figures for population in the sense that some are rounded and some unrounded. The use of rounded or unrounded may give rise to slightly different comparisons and descriptions of change, but these are not significant. 14 The Office for National Statistics have produced data to compare 2001 mid year estimates with populations from the Census taken in April The 2011 population figures are therefore not exactly the same as those adjusted to a mid year base for 2011, but the difference only represents a couple of months. 22

23 4.5 Components of Population Change Population change can be looked at in terms of three main components. Natural change comes from births and deaths. The other important component of population change is migration. The term migration would also include changing population numbers due to students studying and changes to armed forces populations. Births In 2011 there were 1,039 births to mothers living in Forest Heath. This is 262 more than in 2001, an increase of one third. The number of births every year from 2001 to 2011 is shown in a graph in Figure 4.1. Table 4.1 Births in Forest Heath and Total Period Fertility Rates (TPFR) Area Forest Heath Live births ,039 Forest Heath TPFR Suffolk TPFR East of England TPFR Sources: ONS, the data for Forest Heath Births obtained from ERPHO. The 2011 data was released on 10 July 2012 and (at 29th September 2012 is provisional). The 2009 TPFR figure for Forest Heath is an estimate from other data, to allow the time series to be shown A useful way of looking at births and their relationship to behaviour is to consider Total Period Fertility Rates (TPFRs). Total Period Fertility Rate is the hypothetical number of children an average woman would produce in her lifetime if current fertility rates continued. Table 4.1 shows the TPFRs for Forest Heath, Suffolk, and the East of England from 2006 to The Table shows that the TPFR for all three areas has increased from 2006 to It also shows that the TPFR for Suffolk has been higher than that for the East of England and the TPFR for Forest Heath has been higher than that for Suffolk in 2010 and (also shown in Figure 4.2). 15 The calculation of the TPFR is dependent on the number of births and estimates of the number of women living in an area and their age. Revisions of the population of areas following the release of 2011 Census data my result in the TPFRs between 2001 and 2011 being recalculated. 23

24 Figure 4.1 Births, Deaths and Natural Change in Forest Heath 2001 to 2011 Sources: ONS and ERPHO Figure 4.2 Total Period Fertility Rates, Forest Heath, Suffolk and East of England Source: ONS 24

25 Deaths The other key component of natural change are deaths. The number of deaths has been fallen gradually but for most years between 2001 and The average number of deaths per year for 2001 to 2003 was 529 and the average number of deaths per year for the period 2009 to 2011 was 466. The number of deaths per year from 2001 to 2011 is shown in Figure 4.1. Natural Change The combined effect of births and deaths gives natural change. With rising births and decreasing numbers of deaths in a year the natural change has been increasing the population of Forest Heath. As can be seen in Figure 4.1 in 2001 there were 258 more births than deaths in Forest Heath. In 2011 there were, with 584 more births than deaths, more than double that number. Migration Apart from births and deaths the other key component in population growth or decline of an area is migration. Net migration simply means the balance between people moving out of an area and people moving into an area to live. 4.6 Migration The Office for National Statistics publishes a number of estimates of migration numbers. Unlike births and deaths which have to be registered, if you move into or within the United Kingdom this is not necessarily recorded nationally. A variety of sources and techniques have been used to estimate migration. Estimates are available for internal migration moves within the United Kingdom and international migration moves to and from the United Kingdom by people who intend to stay more than 12 months Internal migration is moves within the United Kingdom. ONS estimate this from a number of administrative sources: National Health Service Central Register (NHSCR), the Register Data Service (PRDS) and Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA) data Looking at the information from 2001 onward, the outflow of people from Forest Heath to other parts of England and Wales has remained fairly constant at around 2,500 a year. The inflow of people from within England and Wales to Forest Heath has increased gradually from 2,700 in 2001 to 2002 to 3,400 in 2009 to 2010 and 3,300 in 2010 to These trends are shown in Figure 4.3 which also shows the balance between moves in and moves out net migration. From the start of the century net internal in-migration has gradually increased from a net inflow of around 200 a year to 900 a year in the period 2009 to

26 4.6.4 ONS has looked at internal migration for Local Authorities in England and Wales for the year ending June This shows that, of all Local Authorities in England and Wales, at 1.4% Forest Heath had the largest net inflow of internal migrants in England and Wales compared to its population. Figure 4.3 Forest Heath Population Moves In and Out, Within the United Kingdom Source: ONS International migration is estimated from a wide variety of data including the annual population survey, national insurance number allocations and registration with GPs Looking at trends from 2003/4 to 2009/10 the movement of people who live in Forest Heath to outside the United Kingdom has been estimated to be an average of just over 600 a year. The number has fluctuated each year around this level. The number of people coming to live in Forest Heath from outside the United Kingdom has averaged at slightly over 900 a year over this period. This number has increased over the last four years, reaching 1,400 for 2009 to This data is shown in Figure 4.4 which also shows the net results of these two flows, the result being that over the last four years the net migration inward balance has increased. 16 ONS (2012) Internal Migration by Local Authorities in England and Wales, Year Ending June See 26

27 Figure 4.4 Forest Heath International Migration Source: ONS 4.7 Other Sources of Population Related Data The figures so far looked at deal with directly with people births, deaths and migration. There are some other sources of data which contribute to these (sometimes to population estimates) as they reflect the number of people living in an area, perhaps according to certain age groups. Electoral Roll The electoral roll is an important source of information. The roll can hold British and European citizens aged over 17. You can vote when 18, and 17 year olds can be on the register with their date of birth The number of electors on the electoral roll for Forest Heath was 35,469 in December In December 2010 these figures had risen to 39,008 an increase of 3,539. The figures published in December 2011 was 39,618. This is an increase of 808 electors from 2010 and 4,347 from December In total this represents an increase of over 12% from 2009 to

28 Number of Pupils Electoral roll figures depend on the proportion of the population who register (perhaps depending on whether an election is planned to come). Suffolk County Council have reported that 400 homes in Newmarket were released from military use to general use. It is likely that this will account for some of the gain in electoral roll (for example possibly 800) if those who lived in the houses were not on the electoral roll. This is a way in which the numbers on the electoral roll can increase while the numbers of people living in an area remains the same. School Roll The number of children at state schools is 5,421 as at September Figure 4.5 shows the number of children at state schools 2001 to Numbers have been gently declining for most years from 2001 overall by an average of 60 a year. If one looks at the last three years (2009 to 2011) then there is a slight increase in the number of younger children. The number of primary school age increase by 83 in the three years from Figure 4.5: Numbers of Pupils at State Schools, 2001 to ,000 Numbers of Pupils (state schools) 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Primary Middle Upper Source: Suffolk County Council 28

29 5 Housing This chapter on housing looks at some key factors. First, the number of dwellings and the number built, comparing the number with the Regional Spatial Strategy (RSS) rate. Next tenure is looked at - dwellings owner occupied, where there are social tenants and where there are private tenants. Finally the chapter looks at house prices in Forest Heath and affordability. ` 5.2 Numbers of Dwellings The Regional Spatial Strategy required Forest Heath to deliver 6,400 homes between 2001 and 2021 as part of a total of 61,700 across Suffolk and 508,000 in the East of England. In Forest Heath, the annual average rate required to achieve the 6,400 over 20 years was originally 320 homes per year. The annual average required per year fluctuates depending on delivery. Table 5.1: RSS Required Build Rates Counties and East of England Area Minimum to build April 2001 Annual average rate to March 2021 Cambridgeshire 73,300 3,665 districts Norfolk Districts 78,700 3,935 Suffolk Districts 61,700 3,085 East of England 508,000 25,400 Source: East of England Plan, May Housing completions in Forest Heath from the published Annual Monitoring Report (AMR) are shown in Figure 5.1 where they are compared to the rolling average annual requirement to meet the RSS requirement of 6,400 homes by

30 Figure 5.1: Housing Completions in Forest Heath, 2004 to 2011 (published AMR) AMR RSS Rolling annual average requirement Linear (AMR) Source: Forest Heath AMR reports The RSS rolling annual average housing requirement increased from 320 to 370 then 380 due to lower delivery rates before 2005/06 and again in 2006/07. From 2011, the rolling average for has lowered to 364 as reported in the Forest Heath AMR December The underlying trend has been increasing housing delivery in Forest Heath over the period 2005 to 2010, with a peak of 549 in 2007/08 and a lower peak of 454 in 2009/10. While the annual AMR delivery is down between 2009/10 and 2010/11, the figure of 368 houses delivered in 2010/11 is the third highest recorded. This is reflected in the underlying trend continuing upwards, as shown by the Linear (AMR) line in Figure Figures 5.2 and 5.3 show annual housing completions for 2004/05 to 2010/11 from the Department for Communities and Local Government (CLG) compared to the original average annual rate of completions required by the RSS. The CLG reported figures are used instead of the Forest Heath AMR published figures so as to make comparison with the surrounding counties CLG reported figures for completions in Forest Heath and AMR figures are very close, with the exception of 2005/06 where the Forest Heath AMR shows 18 more completions than reported in the CLG figures, a 5.5% difference between the two figures. 17 Note: the AMR housing completion figures for 2001/02 to 2004/05 are taken from the AMR report 2009/10 and checked against the AMR report 2006/07. The AMR report 2005/06 gives slightly different figures for 2001/02 to 2004/05. 30

31 Figure 5.2: Housing Completions in Forest Heath, Cumulative 2004 to 2011 (CLG) 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Forest Heath Completions Forest Heath RSS Rate Source: Communities and Local Government November 2011 Figure 5.3: Housing Completions in Cambridgeshire, Norfolk and Suffolk, Cumulative 2004 to 2011 (CLG) 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10, Cambs, Norfolk and Suffolk Completions Cambs, Norfolk and Suffolk RSS Rate Source: Communities and Local Government, November

32 Figure 5.4: Housing Completions in the East of England, Cumulative 2004 to 2011 (CLG) 200, , , , , ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20, East of England Completions East of England RSS Rate Source: Communities and Local Government, November Figures 5.2 to 5.4 show the cumulative number of completions between 2004/05 and 2010/11 compared to the average number of completions required per year to achieve the RSS requirement. These charts only apply to the years in question as delivery may have been different in the preceding years. The simple average is used so as to allow comparison between the three figures Housing delivery in Forest Heath began to exceed the RSS cumulative requirement in 2007/08 and continued to deliver an increasing number above the requirement until 2010/11. This is in contrast to the situation in Cambridgeshire, Norfolk and Suffolk where delivery began to exceed the requirement in 2007/08, but then fell back in 2008/09. There is a similar picture in each of the three individual counties. In the East of England as a whole delivery has never risen to meet the RSS requirement. Cumulative delivery ran a little below and in parallel to the requirement until 2007/08 when it began to fall back. Table 5.2: Cumulative Delivery against RSS Requirements 2004/05 to 2010/11 Area Forest Heath Forest Heath % Cambridgeshire, -1,725-1, ,280 1,125-2,176-5,861 Norfolk and Suffolk Cambridgeshire, Norfolk and Suffolk % East of England -3,030-3,900-4,370-3,020-7,720-16,900-25,250 East of England % Source: Communities and Local Government, November

33 5.2.8 Table 5.2 shows that for the years 2004/05 to 2010/11, Forest Heath has started from a below-requirement delivery of 63% of RSS requirement and this changed to a cumulative above-requirement delivery of 111% against the requirement by 2010/11. This compares with a cumulative delivery of 86% of the RSS requirement across the East of England as a whole. 5.3 Household Numbers Information for Local Authorities on the number of households in their area is provided from the Census of Population. For the 2011 Census a household is defined as one person living alone, or a group of people (not necessarily related) living at the same address who share cooking facilities and share a living room, sitting room or dining area The number of households in Forest Heath in 2011 was 25,376, an increase of 2,376 or 10.3% from the 2001 Census figure of 23, Tenure Table 5.3 shows dwellings by tenure across the Cambridge housing sub-region in 2007/08. It is reproduced from the Cambridge sub-region SHMA (Strategic Housing Market Assessment) 2010 update. Table 5.4 shows the percentages of each tenure in It should be noted that the figures in Table 5.4 are from 2001 Census and therefore should not be considered up to date. Information on the tenure of dwellings from the 2011 Census will be available in the second release of Census information, which will take place between November 2012 and February These tables illustrate important facts about the characteristics of the housing market in Forest Heath as compared to other districts in the Cambridge sub-region. Table 5.3: Dwelling by Tenure 2007/08 Cambridge sub-region (numbers) 18 Local Authority Owner Social Tenants Private All households Occupied Tenants and other Cambridge City 24,704 11,187 10,721 46,611 East Cambridgeshire 24,382 4,676 4,342 33,400 Fenland 31,167 5,818 4,571 41,556 Huntingdonshire 52,887 9,046 7,655 69,588 South Cambridgeshire 44,226 8,256 5,897 58,378 Forest Heath 16,971 4,106 6,570 27,647 St Edmundsbury 32,938 7,886 5,567 46,391 Sub-region 226,721 51,822 45, ,887 Source: Census, HSSA 2007/08 18 Cambridge Sub-Region s Strategic Housing Market Assessment Chapter 11: Dwelling profile and occupation 2010 update, based on 2008/9 data: 33

34 5.4.3 Table 5.4 shows that Forest Heath had, in 2001, a lower proportion of owner occupied properties than other districts except Cambridge (61% compared to over 70% in the other rural districts) and a higher proportion of private tenants than other districts (24% compared to 13% or less in the other rural districts). The main reason for this is the effect of the RAF/USAF bases in Forest Heath If there was a major change in the market for private rented properties, such as large changes in the number of service personnel renting properties, that change could affect the need for provision of new build housing by releasing properties on to the market which are currently rented. As far as it is possible to assess, there is no evident reason to expect there has been a change in the proportions of different tenures since 2001 which has been so large as to substantially affect the housing market in Forest Heath to the extent that it would substantially affect the need for new housing. However, this will need to be tested against the 2011 Census results once they appear. Table 5.4: Dwelling by Tenure 2001 Cambridge sub-region (percent) Local Authority Owner Occupied Social Tenants Private Tenants and other All households Cambridge City 53% 24% 23% 100% East Cambridgeshire 73% 14% 13% 100% Fenland 75% 14% 11% 100% Huntingdonshire 76% 13% 11% 100% South Cambridgeshire 75% 14% 10% 100% Forest Heath 62% 15% 24% 100% St Edmundsbury 71% 17% 12% 100% Sub-region 70% 16% 14% 100% Source: Census, The Census 2011 results on tenure and household composition are due for release between November 2012 and February As an interim update, Table 5.4a adjusts the Census 2001 figures using Eastern regional results from the 2009/10 English Household Survey. The figures in Tables 5.4 and 5.4a reflect a small move from owner occupation to private rented. Based on the number of all households shown in the first Census 2011 release (July 2012), a broad estimate of the number of households in the different tenures is shown in Table 5.4b. 34

35 Table 5.4a: Dwelling by Tenure 2001 Cambridge sub-region (percent) Updated using English Housing Survey 19 Local Authority Social Tenants All households Owner Occupied Private Tenants and other Cambridge City 51% 24% 25% 100% East Cambridgeshire 71% 15% 15% 100% Fenland 73% 14% 13% 100% Huntingdonshire 74% 13% 13% 100% South Cambridgeshire 73% 15% 12% 100% Forest Heath 60% 15% 25% 100% St Edmundsbury 69% 18% 14% 100% Sub-region (average of district percentages) 67% 16% 17% 100% Source: Census 2001, Table UV63 and English Housing Survey, 2009/10 Table 5.4b: Broad Estimate of Households by Tenure 2011 ` Owner Occupied (estimated) Social Tenants (estimated) Private Tenants and other (estimated) All households (Census 2011 Table H01) Cambridge City 23,817 11,208 11,675 46,700 East Cambridgeshire 24,566 5,190 5,190 34,600 Fenland 29,638 5,684 5,278 40,600 Huntingdonshire 51,282 9,009 9,009 69,300 South Cambridgeshire 43,800 9,000 7,200 60,000 Forest Heath 15,240 3,810 6,350 25,400 St Edmundsbury 31,602 8,244 6,412 45,800 Sub-region 216,929 52,505 53, ,400 Source: Census 2001 Table UV63, English Housing Survey, 2009/10, Census 2011 Table H01 19 Cambridge Sub-Region s Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2011 Chapter 4: Current dwelling profile and condition (uses 2009/10 data): 35

36 Table 5.5: Households on Housing Needs Registers, in Cambridge sub-region Cambridge City 4,472 2,860 3,218 3,724 4,251 4,743 5,214 5,984 6,897 6,409 East 1,245 1,400 1,538 1,737 1,477 1,442 1,479 1,603 1,404 1,639 Cambridgeshire Fenland 1,293 1,185 1,248 1,439 2,226 2,032 1,971 1,802 2,481 2,071 Huntingdonshire 3,416 2,724 2,910 2,772 2,887 2,425 2,139 2,178 2,178 2,944 South 1,500 1,733 2,207 2,553 3,538 4,155 4,661 3,626 3,800 4,410 Cambridgeshire Forest Heath ,063 1,113 1,221 1,505 1,507 1,230 1,346 1,325 St Edmundsbury 2,122 2,230 2,813 3,104 4,118 4,673 4,433 5,088 2,014 1,861 Sub-Region 15,021 13,111 14,997 16,442 19,718 20,975 21,404 21,511 20,120 20,659 Source: HSSA 2001/2 to 2009/10 (Note that major changes in HNR in the space of two years in some districts have been caused by reviews of the HNR.) Table 5.5 is reproduced from the Cambridge sub-region Strategic Housing Market Assessment (SHMA) 2010 update with the final column added from the SHMA 2011 update (2009/10 data). It shows that the Housing Needs Register for Forest Heath has increased since 2001, though the peak figures were in 2006 and 2007, therefore demonstrating a continuing demand for affordable housing in the district Table 5.5 is reproduced from the Strategic Housing Market Assessment (SHMA) 2010 update. It shows that the Housing Needs Register for Forest Heath has increased since 2001, though the peak figures were in 2006 and 2007, therefore demonstrating a continuing demand for affordable housing in the district. 5.5 House Prices and affordability Since 2001, average (mean) house prices have been consistently lower in Forest Heath than England as a whole or in the East of England as shown in Figure 5.5. They have also been consistently lower than Cambridgeshire or Suffolk prices overall and similar to Norfolk mean prices. The estimated mean price of houses in Forest Heath in 2011 was 167,500 compared to 231,000 across the East of England as a whole. Since 2008 there has been considerable fluctuation in the direction of movement of house prices, with prices increasing and then decreasing from quarter to quarter more frequently than in recent years. However, the mean house price in Forest Heath remained lower in 2011 than in Cambridge sub-region SHMA 2011 Chapter 7, General needs social rented (uses 2009/10 data): 36

37 * Figure 5.5: Mean House Prices 2001 to 2011 (CLG) 300, , , , ,000 50,000 0 England East of England Forest Heath Source: Communities and Local Government Table 585 from Land Registry data, downloaded September The mean house prices for 2011 are based on the most up to date data from CLG. At the time of writing, only the first 3-quarters data for 2011 were available. The prices for the full year 2011 were estimated using trends over time and comparing to the published Halifax Regional House Price Index 21. This may be a relatively pessimistic estimate, but the trend is uncertain and mean house prices in Forest Heath are lower than in Other data suggest there may be further falls in mean house prices. For example, the Halifax Regional House Price Index all houses (all buyers), seasonally adjusted for the second quarter of 2012 shows a 6% fall in prices in East Anglia. 21 The method of estimating was this: Compare the general trend of average mean prices for each year 2001 to In most years up to 2008, the 4-quarter mean price was higher than the mean price over the first 3 quarters of the same year. From 2008, the trend has reversed with the 4-quarter mean prices tending to be lower than those for the first 3 quarters of the same year. This reflects static or falling house prices. These trends were assessed across Forest Heath, Suffolk, Norfolk and Cambridgeshire counties, the East of England and England. Alternative approaches were also tested before using this approach. The Halifax Regional House Price Index for East Anglia broadly supports this approach. In particular, the seasonally adjusted data show a fall in prices in East Anglia in Q1 of 2011, a rise in Q2 and Q3 then a fall in Q4. Halifax Regional House Price Index: 37

38 Figure 5.6: Lower quartile house prices 2001 to 2011 (CLG) 160, , , ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20, * England East of England Forest Heath Source: Communities and Local Government Table 587 from Land Registry data, downloaded November The same method of estimation for 2011 has been used for the lower quartile house prices as for the mean house prices (Figure 5.5) Since 2001, lower quartile house prices have been consistently lower in Forest Heath than in the East of England as a whole and generally only a little higher than in England as a whole, as shown in Figure 5.6. They have also been consistently similar to Norfolk and Suffolk lower quartile house prices and lower than Cambridgeshire lower quartile prices overall. The estimated average lower quartile house price in Forest Heath in 2011 was around 116,000 compared to 138,000 across the East of England as a whole. The Cambridgeshire price in 2011 was 142,000, Norfolk was 118,500 and Suffolk 122,000. These 2011 figures must be treated as indicative as they are estimated, but it is clear that lower quartile house prices in Forest Heath remained lower in 2011 than in

39 Figure 5.7: Ratio of lower quartile incomes to lower quartile house prices 2001 to 2011 (CLG) England East of England Forest Heath Source: Communities and Local Government Table 576 based on Land Registry and ASHE data, downloaded November Figure 5.7 shows the ration of individual income to house prices. In Forest Heath affordability of lower quartile properties on this measure has remained similar to that across the East of England since 2001, with both being higher than the ratio for England, indicating that property in Forest Heath has been less affordable than in England as a whole, probably because of comparatively low wages in Forest Heath. Since 2005/06 property has become more affordable in Forest Heath. The picture from 2009 onwards is less clear as the increase in affordability shown by a decrease in the ratio of lower quartile income to lower quartile prices has begun to level off. Lower quartile properties in Forest Heath have fluctuated in price since 2009 after a sharp drop in A Figure 3.7 shows, earnings for employees in Forest Heath showed little change from 2008 to 2010 and an increase from 2010 to The affordability of lower quartile properties in Forest Heath has increased since 2006 and this coincides with the higher delivery rates of housing in the district, higher than the RSS 39

40 requirements. Mean and lower quartile house prices rose at the same time, though that is a longer term trend up to The underlying trend in house prices from 2008 onwards is not clear due to quarterly and annual fluctuations. 40

41 6 More Recent Forecasts The purpose of this chapter is to look at some of the most recent forecasts which affect, or might affect, the Forest Heath economy, population or households. These are forecasts or projections which have been made after the publication of employment and housing figures for Forest Heath in Forecasts from the East of England Forecasting Model Oxford Economics were commissioned by the East of England Development Agency (EEDA) to produce a model to give forecasts for the East of England. The East of England Forecasting Model (EEFM) was developed by Oxford Economics to forecast economic, demographic and housing trends EEFM commissioning has been taken on by Local Authorities initially in the East of England. In 2011 the EEFM was extended to provide forecasts for the East of England region and sub-regions (counties, unitaries and district authorities), the East Midlands and South East regions, and the Greater Cambridge Greater Peterborough, Hertfordshire, New Anglia, Northamptonshire, South East and South East Midlands LEP areas The most recent forecasts for these areas are the Spring 2012 forecasts, information from which was released in September They are based mainly on information dated as 2010 and so do not yet contain information from the 2011 Census of Population Forecasts have been carried out on three sets of assumptions baseline, high migration and lost decade. In the high migration scenario, the core assumption is that the number of net migration inflows into the UK will match that of the ONS 2010 based official projections. For the lost decade scenario the core assumption which underpins this is that the UK economy will endure continued sluggish economic growth over the next 5 years. The rationale for this assumption is a deeper impact from the public spending cuts and a more drawn out recovery as a result of the knock-on impacts from the struggling economies in the Eurozone Figure 6.1 shows the number of jobs from the forecasts under the three sets of assumptions. The lost decade assumptions forecast that the number of jobs in Forest Heath will grow by 1,800 in the 20 year period 2011 to The baseline forecast assumptions result in the number of jobs growing over that period by 5,100 and the high migration forecast assumptions result in the number of jobs growing by 7,

42 6.2.6 The Regional Spatial Strategy, May 2008, Policy E1 has jobs forecasts for the combined Local Authorities of Forest Heath, Mid Suffolk and St Edmundsbury. The indicative target for net growth in jobs for the period for this area is an increase of 18,000 jobs. For the same period (2001 to 2021) the East of England model forecasts just referred to range are of increases of either 6,800, 18,400 or 22,900 (for the scenarios lost decade, baseline and high migration respectively) The jobs target in the Draft East of England Plan > 2031 shows 6,600 new jobs forecast for Forest Heath for the period Figure 6.2 shows the number of people forecast to live in Forest Heath by the EEFM under all three sets of assumptions. In all three scenarios the population is forecast to grow. The lost decade assumption result in forecasts where the number of people in Forest Heath increases by 14,100 in the 20 year period 2011 to The baseline forecast assumptions result in a slightly smaller increase in the number of people: 13,700. The high migration forecast assumptions result in a population increase of 15,300. Figure 6.1 Forecast Numbers of Jobs, Forest Heath Source: East of England Economic Forecasting Model, Spring 2012 forecasts 42

43 6.2.9 Figure 6.3 shows the number of dwellings forecast as required in Forest Heath by the EEFM under all three sets of assumptions. In all three scenarios the number of dwellings required is forecast to grow. The lost decade assumption result in forecasts where the number of dwellings required in Forest Heath increases by 7,700 in the 20 year period 2011 to 2031 (average of 385 a year). The baseline forecast assumptions result in a slightly smaller increase in the number of dwellings required: 7,500 (average of 375 a year). The high migration forecast assumptions result an the increase in the number of dwellings required of 8,200 (an average of 410 a year). Figure 6.2 Forecast Numbers of People, Forest Heath Source: East of England Economic Forecasting Model, Spring 2012 forecasts Figure 6.3 Forecast Numbers of Dwellings, Forest Heath Source: East of England Economic Forecasting Model, Spring 2012 forecasts 43

44 6.3 Interim 2011-based Subnational Population Projections With the more accurate information on the number and age of people living in Forest Heath (and other areas) coming from the results of the 2011 Census of Population, the Office for National Statistics has produced interim 2011-based subnational population projections for England These projections assume a continuation of the estimated trends in fertility, mortality and migration as used in the 2010-based projections and are constrained to the assumptions made for the 2010-based national population projections Projections are not forecasts and they do not attempt to predict the impact that future government or local policies, changing economic circumstances or other factors might have on demographic behaviour. The primary purpose of the subnational projections is to provide an estimate of the future size and age structure of the population of local authorities in England. Projections become increasingly uncertain the further they are carried forward due to the inherent uncertainty of demographic behaviour. This is particularly so for smaller geographical areas. Figure 6.4 Projected Number of People, Forest Heath Source: ONS Interim Subnational Population Projections

45 6.3.4 The interim 2011-based subnational population projections for England project that the number of people living in Forest Heath between 2011 and 2021 will increase by 8,000 or 14%. 5,000 of this increase (about two thirds) will be caused by natural increase (births and deaths). See Figure Household Projections for Forest Heath The Department for Communities and Local Government (CLG) regularly publish household projections. In November 2010 they published 2008 based household projections 24. These use the 2008 based Official Statistics population projections In considering the results, CLG publish advice on the role of the projections. The assumptions underlying them are demographic trend-based. They do not attempt to predict the impact that future government policies, changing economic circumstances or other factors might have on demographic behaviour. They provide the household levels and structures that would result if the assumptions based on previous demographic trends in the population and rates of household formation were to be realised in practice The projections go through to 2033 and, for the 25 year period from 2008 to 2033, they project an increase of around 8,700 households for Forest Heath (an average increase of 350 households each year) 25. See Figure The drivers of change in the number of households are a number of factors. For England, population growth is the main driver of household growth, accounting for nearly threequarters of the increase in households between 2008 and This reflects impacts of fertility, life expectancy and net migration in the population projections. Other factors influencing the change in the number of households are the age structure and marital status of the population The Communities and Local Government previous projections were 2006 based 26 In the 25 year projection period (2006 to 2031) in these, the number of households in Forest Heath was projected to increase by 11,000 (so more than the 2008 based projections) based household projections from Communities and Local Government 25 The source for the numbers used in this report is the detailed data published by CLG for modelling and analytical purposes (available from /detaileddatadownloads/ ). Reflecting the inherent issues of estimation and the standards applied to other published data from these projections, the numbers of households have been rounded to the nearest 100 this is the level requested by CLG in the notes accompanying the data. The annual change in household numbers is rounded to the nearest based household projections from Communities and Local Government: / 45

46 Figure 6.5: Projected Households for Forest Heath (2008 based) Source: Department of Communities and Local Government 2008 projections, published November

47 7 Conclusions The picture on economic growth in Forest Heath is mixed. The number in employment decreased in 2006 and 2007 but since then has risen The unemployment rate has fallen slightly since 2009 while that of Great Britain and the East of England has remained at about the same level. Mirroring this, the number of Job Seeker s Allowance claimants in Forest Heath rose from 2004 to 2010 but has fallen slightly since then Average weekly earnings continue to rise but remain below those for the East of England and Great Britain Forest Heath s population grew by 7% between 2001 and Its growth is about average when compared to other Local Authorities in England Natural increase (comparing births with deaths) is growing with more births and fewer deaths in recent years. The most recent change is an increase to the population from this of 584 in Migration into Forest Heath, international and from within the UK, has increased in recent years, while the numbers leaving have remained steady. The most recent figures are for net inmigration into Forest Heath of 900 from within the UK, and a similar figure for international migration Housing delivery in Forest Heath began to exceed the RSS cumulative requirement in 2007/08 and there has been an overall continued upward trend in the number of houses delivered Results from Economic Forecasts for the East of England, carried out in the Spring of 2012, are based on information available from 2010 and so take account of some of the effects of economic changes. Their forecasts, under different scenarios, result in housing requirements consistent, in fact slightly higher, than those in the East of England Regional Strategy The interim 2011-based subnational population projections for England are based on information from the 2011 Census. These project that the number of people living in Forest Heath between 2011 and 2021 will increase by 8,000 or 14%. 5,000 of this increase (about two thirds) will be caused by natural increase. 47

48 The more recent information for this update of the report, the original of which was written in the autumn of 2011, shows that: The recent forecasts of jobs from the East of England Forecasting Model, in the baseline scenario, are very close to those in the Regional Spatial Strategy (May 2008). The dwellings forecasts from the East of England Forecasting Model for the different scenarios are slightly higher than the minimum number of houses to be built a year Regional Spatial Strategy (May 2008). 48

49 8 Appendix 1 Housing Requirements from the East of England Plan 2008 Tables A1.1and A1.2 show the Regional Spatial Strategies (RSS) requirements as set out in the East of England Plan, for Districts in the three Counties surrounding Forest Heath: Cambridgeshire, Norfolk and Suffolk. Table A1.1 POLICY H1: Regional Housing Provision 2001 to 2021 Norfolk and Suffolk Source: East of England Plan, May 2008 Note: the fourth column entitled Minimum still to build April 2000 to March 2021 is a misprint in the original Plan document, from which the Table has been copied. The column should read Minimum still to build April 2006 to March

50 Table A1.2 POLICY H1: Regional Housing Provision 2001 to 2021 Including Cambridgeshire Source: East of England Plan, May 2008 Note: the fourth column entitled Minimum still to build April 2000 to March 2021 is a misprint in the original Plan document, from which the Table has been copied. The column should read Minimum still to build April 2006 to March