This factsheet aims to pull together a range of information about the size and nature of the resident population within Warrington Borough.

Transcription

1 Introduction This factsheet aims to pull together a range of information about the size and nature of the resident population within Warrington Borough. It looks at the population trends in different ways including by age, gender, disability, religion and sexuality. This will help the council monitor how its services and facilities are used by members of various community groups. It also brings together information to identify the key trends in migration and nationality which will impact on the levels of services required within the borough. Contents 1. Population by age and gender 2. Population by local areas 3. Disability or impairment 4. Population by ethnic groups 5. Religion or belief 6. Sexuality 7. Migration 8. Nationality For more information For more information please contact: Direct dial: cwojtowycz@warrington.gov.uk Council s equality intranet webpage: To access more comparative figures please visit: National Statistics: NOMIS: Department for Work and Pensions: Page 1 of 22

2 1) Population by age and gender Key Trends There are an estimated 196,200 residents within Warrington Borough. This ranks it as the 15 th largest unitary or district local authority within the Northwest. There is a higher proportion of the resident population in the 35 to 49 age group than the national average. The population is forecast to change by less than 1% over next the 20 years if current housing trends continue. Population is forecast to decrease by 13% for ages under 45 years old over by Conversely the population aged 45 or over is forecast to increase by 19% over the same period. The population aged 65 or over is forecast to increase by over 50% over the same period. Population density is highest in Orford Ward and Fairfield & Howley Ward. Age Under 1 Chart 1: Population Profile Mid 2008 Females Males England & Wales 10% 0% 10% % population by gender Source: Crown copyright reserved Page 2 of 22

3 Table 1: Population by Gender 2008 Persons % Persons Males % Males Females % Females All people 196, , , Source: crown copyright reserved. Table 2: Population by Age 2008 Persons % Persons Males % Males Females % Females All people 196, , , to15 37, , , to 24 22, , , to 34 22, , , to 44 31, , , to 54 28, , , to 64 24, , , to 74 16, , , to 84 9, , , & over 3, , ,500 3 Source: crown copyright reserved. All people Table 3: Population by Customised Age 2008 Persons % Persons Males % Males Females % Females 196, , , Children and Young People's Services 0 to 5 13, , , to 13 18, , , to 19 15, , , to 25 14, , ,800 7 Neighbourhood and Community Services 18 to 25 19, , , to 65 38, , , Source: crown copyright reserved. Page 3 of 22

4 Chart 2: Population Forecasts 2008 to 2028 Population 202, , , , , , , , , , , Source: Warrington Local Forecasts, Cheshire West & Chester 2028 High forecast Principal forecast Low forecast Table 4: Population Forecasts by Broad Age 2008 to All people 196, , , , ,800 0 to15 37,800 37,200 36,700 36,000 34, to 24 22,200 20,900 19,400 18,900 19, to 44 54,000 49,900 46,100 45,800 45, to 64 51,900 54,900 56,400 54,500 50, & over 30,300 34,300 37,900 41,600 46,700 Source: Warrington Local Forecasts, Cheshire West and Chester Page 4 of 22

5 Chart 3: Population Forecasts 2008 to 2028 by Age to 2013 to 2018 to 2023 to 2028 % Change All ages Age Source: Warrington Local Forecasts Cheshire West and Chester Table 5: Population Percentage Change 2008 to 2028 To 2013 To 2018 To 2023 To 2028 All people to to to to & over Source: Warrington Local Forecasts, Cheshire West and Chester Page 5 of 22

6 2) Population by local areas 2008 Map 1: Population by Neighbourhood Management and Coordination Areas 2008 Source: crown copyright reserved. Estimates produced at neighbourhood level by Cheshire West and Chester Council. Page 6 of 22

7 Map 2: Population by Electoral Wards 2008 Source: crown copyright reserved. Estimates produced at ward level by Cheshire West and Chester Council. Page 7 of 22

8 3) Disability or impairment The Disability Discrimination Act 1995 (DDA) defines a disabled person as someone with a physical or mental impairment, which has substantial and long-term adverse effect on his/her ability to carry out normal day to day activities. It says you are disabled if you have: a mental or physical impairment this has an adverse effect on your ability to carry out normal day-to-day activities the adverse effect is substantial the adverse effect is long-term (meaning it has lasted for 12 months, or is likely to last for more than 12 months or for the rest of your life) What are normal day-to-day activities? At least one of these areas must be substantially affected: mobility manual dexterity physical co-ordination continence ability to lift, carry or move everyday objects speech, hearing or eyesight memory or ability to concentrate, learn or understand understanding of the risk of physical danger Disability Rights Commission: Key Trends: Just over a quarter (26%) of respondents to the 2008 Warrington Place Survey stated having a long standing illness, disability or infirmity. The rate of disability living allowance claimants has gradually increased from 5.2% to 5.6% between 2005 and The rate of incapacity benefit claimants has gradually decreased from 7.6% to 6.2% between 2005 and Long Standing Illness The Warrington Place Survey is a biennial resident s survey which aims to collect citizen s perceptions about Warrington the place and the performance of local public services from across the Borough. The most recent Place Survey took place between September and December 2008 and included responses from 1,325 randomly selected residents. They were asked questions about whether they experienced long standing illness, disability or infirmity. Page 8 of 22

9 Table 6: 2008 Warrington Place Survey Respondents by Long Standing Illness % of respondents Long standing illness, disability or infirmity 26 Base: All respondents (1325) Limits respondents activities 65 Base: All respondents with infirmity (443) Source: Place Survey 2008, Ipsos Mori Ltd. Please note: These figures refer to a random sample of 1,325 residents aged 18 & over who responded to the Place Survey 2008 The true percentage of the population if all adults were surveyed would be +/- 3.4% around the figure given in each category 95/100 times The figures are not a census and therefore should only be taken as a general indication of trends in the population rather than a definitive count Disability Living Allowance Claimants Disability Living Allowance (DLA) provides a non-contributory, non means-tested and taxfree contribution towards the disability-related extra costs of severely disabled people who claim help with those costs before the age of 65. It replaced and extended Attendance Allowance and Mobility Allowance for people in this age group from April For more information: Chart 4: Disability Living Allowance Claimants 2005 to England and Wales % Population Warrington Source: DWP, Page 9 of 22

10 Incapacity Benefit Claimants Incapacity Benefit (IB) is paid to people who are incapable of work and who meet certain contribution conditions. It replaced Sickness Benefit and Invalidity Benefit from 13 April Severe Disablement Allowance (SDA) was paid to those unable to work for 28 weeks in a row or more because of illness or disability. Until April 2001, people who were incapable of work and did not satisfy the contribution conditions for Incapacity Benefit (IB) could get SDA. Since April 2001 it has not been possible to make a new SDA claim. For more information: Chart 5: Incapacity Benefit Claimants 2005 to 2009 % Working age population Source: DWP, England and Wales Warrington Page 10 of 22

11 4) Population by ethnic groups There are now figures available on the resident population by the main ethnic groups which updates the 2001 Census. For more information on these figures please visit: Key Trends: The ethnic minority population (white or non white) accounts for 5.9% of the total population, which has increased from 5.2% in Warrington s largest minority group is the White Other category at 1.5% of the population followed by Asian or Asian British: Indian (0.6%) or Pakistani (0.6%). The percentage of all pupils of with English as an additional language has increased from 4.3% in 2008 to 5% in Chart 6: Population by Ethnic Group Mid 2007 % Population Mid 2005 Mid 2006 Mid 2007 Source: Crown copyright. Non White (British or Non British) White Non British White British Page 11 of 22

12 Table 7: Population by Ethnic Group Mid 2007 Warrington England Persons % Persons % Persons All groups 195, White: British 183, Irish 1, Gypsy N/A N/A N/A Irish Traveller N/A N/A N/A Other 2, Mixed: White and Black Caribbean White and Black African White and Asian Other Mixed Black or Black Black Caribbean British: Black African Asian or Asian British: European: Chinese or Other Ethnic Group: Summary: Other Black Indian 1, Pakistani 1, Bangladeshi Other Asian Polish/Czech/Latvian/ N/A N/A N/A Slovak/Russian Chinese Chinese or Other Ethnic Group: Other White British 183, White Non British 4, Non White (British or Non British) 7, Source: crown copyright reserved. Please note these are experimental statistics. For more information please visit: Page 12 of 22

13 Chart 7: All School Pupils by Ethnic Group January 2008 to January % All pupils on roll Source: School Census, Warrington Borough Council 89.2 Non White (British or Non British) White Non British White British Chart 8: All School Pupils with English as an Additional Language January 2008 to January % All pupils on roll English as an additional language Source: School Census, Warrington Borough Council Please note: School Census figures presented relate to both Primary and Secondary school pupils but do not include pupils attending special schools. Page 13 of 22

14 5) Religion or belief The 2008 Warrington Place Survey can also provide information on the stated religion or belief of the respondents. Key Trends: The majority of respondents to the 2008 Warrington Place Survey were Christian (82%) or held no religion or belief (13%) Chart 9: 2008 Place Survey Respondents by Religion or Belief No religion or belief 13 Christian 82 Religion stated Buddhist Muslim Hindu Sikh Jewish < 1 < 1 < 1 < 1 < 1 Any other religion No answer 1 3 Source: Place Survey 2008, Ipsos Mori Ltd % Respondents Please note: these figures refer to a random sample of 1,325 residents aged 18 & over who responded to the Place Survey 2008 The true percentage of the population if all adults were surveyed would be +/- 3.4% around the figure given in each category 95/100 times The figures are not a census and therefore should only be taken as a general indication of trends in the population rather than a definitive count Page 14 of 22

15 6) Sexuality The 2008 Warrington Place Survey can also provide information on the stated sexuality of the respondents. Key Trends: The majority of respondents to the 2008 Warrington Place Survey stated they were heterosexual (91%) followed by 6% who did not respond. Chart 10: 2008 Place Survey Respondents by Sexuality Prefer not to say 2 Heterosexual 91 Sexuality stated Bisexual Lesbian Gay man < 1 < 1 < 1 No answer 6 Source: Place Survey 2008, Ipsos Mori % Respondents Please note: These figures refer to a random sample of 1,325 residents aged 18 & over who responded to the Place Survey 2008 The true percentage of the population if all adults were surveyed would be +/- 3.4% around the figure given in each category 95/100 times The figures are not a census and therefore should only be taken as a general indication of trends in the population rather than a definitive count Page 15 of 22

16 7) Migration Migration is the most difficult element of the population measure. Therefore a range of indicators are necessary to gain an overall trend. Key Trends: The average volume of all migration moves (inflows or outflows) peaked at mid 2007 at 73 moves / 1000 population but has since declined to 71 moves / 1000 at mid In 2008 there were 940 National Insurance numbers allocated to overseas nationals within Warrington, which accounts for 0.5% of the whole population compared to a peak of 0.8% in This figure also compares to a national average of 1.2%. 39% of national insurance numbers allocated to overseas nationals as at June 2009 relate to Polish nationals followed by 8.5% relating to Indian nationals. In 2008 there were 510 migrant workers registered to the Worker Registration Scheme accounting for nearly 0.3% of the whole population, similar to the national average and the figure for There are an estimated 2,610 short term migrants (resident less than 12 months) resident within Warrington. There was 1,100 patient registrations to those born (or previously living) outside the UK (Flag 4s) at mid 2008, accounting for a rate of 5 registrations / 1000 population compared to a peak rate of 6 / 1000 at mid This figure compares to a national rate of 11 / The proportion of the Warrington resident population born outside the UK was 4.1% (8,000 residents) in 2008 compared to 3.6% in This figure also compares to a national average of 12.1%. The proportion of the Warrington resident population of non British origin was 3.1% (6,000 residents) in 2008 compared to 2.6% in This figure also compares to a national average of 7.5%. Page 16 of 22

17 Table 8: Migration Flows and Volumes Internal Migration International Migration Mid year Volume of migration per estimate at 1000 population end In Out In Out All International 2003 to ,400 6,200 6, to ,300 6,100 5,500 1,000 1, to ,000 6,000 5, to ,200 6,700 5, to ,200 6,500 5, Source: crown copyright reserved. Please note: This table shows the amount of migration into and out of Warrington Borough for the years mid-2004 to mid Annual rates of the volume of migration are calculated as the sum of in and out-migration (in the year to June) per 1,000 population for all moves as well as just international moves. National Insurance Number Allocations to Overseas Nationals National Insurance data cover overseas nationals allocated a National Insurance Number (NINo) on the National Insurance Recording System (NIRS). The figures cover overseas nationals allocated a NINo for whatever reason i.e. the figures cover benefit/tax credit recipients as well as workers. All overseas nationals allocated a NINo are included, regardless of their length of stay in the UK. Page 17 of 22

18 Chart 11: Migrant National Insurance Allocations 2004 to Source: Department for Work and Pensions % Population England Warrington Chart 12: Percentage of migrant National Insurance Allocations by Nationality June 2009 USA, 1.1 Iraq, 1.1 Thailand, 1.3 Rep of Ireland, 1.3 All other, 13.7 Germany, 1.6 Hungary, 1.7 France, 1.7 Rep of Latvia, 1.9 Pakistan, 2.1 Czech Rep, 2.1 China Peoples, 2.2 Australia, 2.7 South Africa, 3.3 Philippines, 4.6 Slovak Rep, 8.2 India, 8.5 Poland, 39.0 Source: National Insurance Recording System June 2009, DWP, Crown Copyright Page 18 of 22

19 Worker Registration Scheme The Workers Registration Scheme (WRS) began in May 2004 and provides information supplied by citizens from eight of the countries who joined the European Union that month when they obtain a job in the UK. These countries are often referred to as the eight accession states, or A8 1. A8 citizens are required to register once they obtain a job and to re-register for subsequent jobs until they have worked a total of 12 out of 13 months. There is no deregistration information; the data only gives inflows. Self employed individuals do not have to register. The data is NOT cumulative. It is not possible to use it to make assumptions about how long people stay in an area, or how many are working in an area at any one time. Applicants provide information about their employment and give a basic demographic profile including nationality, age and dependents. The published WRS statistics use the employer's postcode address to allocate individuals to local authority areas. Chart 13: Worker Registration Scheme Allocations 2004 to England Warrington % Population May to December 2004 January to December 2005 January to December 2006 January to December 2007 January to December 2008 Source: Worker Registration Scheme, Local Government Association, Crown Copyright Reserved 1 A8 countries (Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia) Page 19 of 22

20 Flag 4s Patient Registrations Flag 4 records are provided to the Office for National Statistics (ONS) from the Patient Register Data Service (PRDS) data provided by NHS Connecting for Health (NHSCfH). Flag 4s are codes within the PRDS system which indicate that someone who has registered with a GP in England and Wales was previously living overseas. A Flag 4 may be generated when an individual registers with a GP if: An individual was born outside the UK and enters England and Wales for the first time and registers with a NHS GP. An individual's registration will also generate a Flag 4 if the previous address of an individual is reported as outside the United Kingdom, and time spent outside the UK is more than three months. Chart 14: Patient Registrations from Outside the UK 2004 to 2008 Rate per 1000 population England Warrington Source: Patient Register Data Services Page 20 of 22

21 Short Term Migrants There are experimental estimates of short term migrants for Warrington Borough as at mid Short-term migration can be broadly defined as moves made for more than one month but less than a year (moves made for less than one month are defined as visits). The estimates are experimental and based upon the International Passenger Survey. Table 9: Short Term Migrants Mid 2007 Non worker Worker estimate Total estimate estimate Warrington Borough 2, ,610 Source: crown copyright reserved. 8) Nationality Annual Population Survey Figures are available from an Annual Population Survey (APS) on the proportion of residents born outside the UK or with non British nationality. The APS is a national residence based labour market survey which includes information on population, employment, unemployment, economic inactivity and qualifications. This information is broken down by gender, age, ethnicity, industry and occupation. As the estimates are based upon a survey then they represent a sample of the total population. The true value if the whole population was surveyed lies within a margin of error around the survey estimate. For the nationality estimates this figure is relatively wide at over 30% (2,000 to 3,000 residents) around the survey estimate for 95/100 times. Page 21 of 22

22 Chart 15: Estimates of the Proportion of the Population with Non British Nationality Source: Annual Population Survey, % Population England Warrington Chart 16: Estimates of the Proportion of the Population Born Outside the UK % Population England Warrington Source: Annual Population Survey, Page 22 of 22