Social Indicators. This edition includes: Articles: - General Election NHS Waiting Lists and Targets in England. Topical subject pages:

Transcription

1 RESEARCH PAPER 5/44 13 JUNE 25 Social Indicators This Research Paper summarises a wide range of social statistics. Subjects covered include crime and justice, defence, education, elections, health and population. Regular updates of individual pages, together with spreadsheets containing data, are available to Members and staff on the parliamentary intranet. This edition includes: Articles: - General Election 25 - NHS Waiting Lists and Targets in England Topical subject pages: - Waste and Recycling - Abortion - General Election 25: Summary Julien Anseau - Editor SOCIAL & GENERAL STATISTICS HOUSE OF COMMONS LIBRARY

2 Recent Library Research Papers: 5/28 The Equality Bill [Bill 72 of 24-5] /29 The Middle East Peace Process: prospects after the Palestinian Presidential Elections 5/3 The Quango Debate /31 The International Organisations Bill [HL] [Bill 2 of 24-5] /32 Unemployment by Constituency, March /33 General Election /34 By-election results /35 Unemployment by Constituency, April /36 The Transport (Wales) Bill [Bill 4 of 25-6] /37 The Consumer Credit Bill [Bill 2 of 25-6] /38 Crossrail Bill [Bill 1 of 25-6] /39 The Natural Environment and Rural Communities Bill [Bill 3 of 25-6] 5/4 Economic Indicators, June /41 The National Lottery Bill [Bill 6 of 25-6] /42 Parliamentary pay and allowances Research Papers are available as PDF files: to members of the general public on the Parliamentary web site, URL: within Parliament to users of the Parliamentary Intranet, URL: Library Research Papers are compiled for the benefit of Members of Parliament and their personal staff. Authors are available to discuss the contents of these papers with Members and their staff but cannot advise members of the general public. Any comments on Research Papers should be sent to the Research Publications Officer, Room 47, 1 Derby Gate, London, SW1A 2DG or ed to PAPERS@parliament.uk ISSN

3 CONTENTS I Introduction to Social Indicators i II Contacts for further information ii III General Election 25 iii IV NHS Waiting Lists and Targets in England vii V Topical subject pages Waste and Recycling Abortion General Election 25: Summary xi xii xiii VII Regular subject pages Agriculture 1 Crime and justice 3 Defence 9 Education 12 Elections 2 Environment and energy 26 Health 28 Housing 33 Local government 37 Population and migration 39 Social security 45 Transport 47 Miscellaneous 52

4 List of regular subject pages Agriculture Agricultural incomes and subsidies 1 Agricultural labour and output 2 Crime and justice Police numbers 3 Police funding 4 Crime 5 Crime: international comparisons 6 Drug misuse 7 Prison population 8 Defence Defence employment 9 Defence expenditure 1 Defence exports 11 Education Class sizes 12 Schools 13 Teachers 14 Examination results 15 Participation in education and training: year olds 16 Applicants and entrants to higher education 17 Participation in higher education 18 Education expenditure 19 Elections General Election results 2 Turnout 21 Other elections 22 Voter characteristics 23 Opinion polls 24 Environment and energy Energy and CO 2 emissions 25 Road fuel prices 26

5 Health Waiting lists 27 Health expenditure 28 Beds and activity 29 NHS staff 3 Community care 31 Housing Dwellings completed 32 House prices 33 Homelessness 34 Rough sleeping 35 Local government Local government finance 36 Council tax 37 Population and migration Population 38 Infant deaths and life expectancy 39 International migration 4 Asylum seekers 41 Asylum decisions 42 Ethnicity and religion 43 Social security Social security benefits and expenditure 44 Pensions and pensioners incomes 45 Transport Road accident casualties 46 Road traffic 47 Public transport 48 Rail performance and fares 49 Freight 5 Miscellaneous Internet access 51 Index of Multiple Deprivation 52

6 RESEARCH PAPER 5/44 I Introduction to Social Indicators Social Indicators consists of a series of subject pages that cover a wide range of social statistics. The pages are individual Standard Notes, available to MPs and staff on the parliamentary intranet, and are updated when new statistics are available. The subject pages are combined in a printed Research Paper three times a year. Each edition of the Research Paper includes articles and topical subject pages. The Social Indicators intranet pages enable MPs and staff to download underlying data in the form of spreadsheet files. 1 These files often include more detailed statistics and longer time series. Subjects have been chosen from those that receive the most public attention and those that we think are most useful to MPs. These include some international comparisons alongside nationally based statistics. Every attempt has been made to match the geographical coverage of these topics to the powers of the UK parliament. Where possible, links are included on the intranet pages to statistics that cover the rest of the UK. The coverage of Social Indicators is intended to be complementary to the Economic Indicators Research Paper, which is produced by the Economic Policy and Statistics section. The range of topics included in Social Indicators and the content of the intranet pages is regularly reviewed. If you have views on either, please contact the Head of Section, Richard Cracknell (x4632) or the editor, Julien Anseau (x431). 1 i

7 RESEARCH PAPER 5/44 II Contacts for further information Members and staff who require further information on a particular subject should contact the relevant statistician as detailed below. A comprehensive guide to the subject coverage of Research Service specialists is available in Who Does What in Research. 2 Subject Statistician Tel. Alternative Tel. Agriculture Paul Bolton 6789 Richard Cracknell 4632 Charities Paul Bolton 6789 Gavin Berman 3851 Civil service Richard Cracknell 4632 Adam Mellows-Facer 6969 Crime and justice Gavin Berman 3851 Ross Young 4313 Defence David Knott 2454 Gavin Berman 3851 Deprivation Julien Anseau 6969 Adam Mellows-Facer 431 Education David Knott 2454 Gavin Berman 3851 Elections Adam Mellows-Facer 6969 Ross Young 4313 Energy Ross Young 4313 Paul Bolton 6789 Environment Paul Bolton 6789 Ross Young 4313 Gambling/lottery Gavin Berman 3851 Adam Mellows-Facer 6969 Health Services Adam Mellows-Facer 6969 David Knott 2454 Health (public, diseases etc) Julien Anseau 431 Adam Mellows-Facer 6969 Housing Julien Anseau 431 Gavin Berman 3851 Immigration Ross Young 4313 Paul Bolton 6789 Local government finance Gavin Berman 3851 David Knott 2454 Media/arts Gavin Berman 3851 Adam Mellows-Facer 6969 Monarchy Richard Cracknell 6789 Paul Bolton 4632 Parliament Richard Cracknell 4632 Adam Mellows-Facer 6969 Parliament (MPs) Ross Young 4313 Richard Cracknell 4632 Population Julien Anseau 431 Adam Mellows-Facer 6969 Religion Gavin Berman 3851 Adam Mellows-Facer 6969 Science Paul Bolton 6789 Ross Young 4313 Social Security (inc. pensions) Richard Cracknell 4632 Ross Young 4313 Social Services Paul Bolton 6789 Adam Mellows-Facer 6969 Sport Gavin Berman 3851 Adam Mellows-Facer 6969 Statistics (Policy) Richard Cracknell 4632 Ross Young 4313 Technology Ross Young 4313 Paul Bolton 6789 Transport Ross Young 4313 Paul Bolton ii

8 RESEARCH PAPER 5/44 III General Election General Election: constituency shares of the vote for main parties 35 Labour continued to have the most seats after the General Election on 5 May, but the Party lost seats and vote share Labour finished 47 seats down and nationally its share of the vote was 5.5% points lower than in 21. The Conservatives gained.6% point more in terms of vote share but this gave them 33 more seats. The Liberal Democrat s share of the vote rose by 3.8% points, and they gained 11 seats over Detailed election results appear in General Election This article looks at the results and, particularly, polling evidence that is so far available to shed further light on the factors underpinning the final result for three main parties. Distribution of votes The first-past-the-post system means that the result of a general election depends on the distribution of votes across the country. Support for Labour and the Conservatives is particularly concentrated in areas of the country where they hold many safe seats. The Liberal Democrat vote is, however, more widely spread across the country than that of Labour or the Conservatives and these two parties are much more likely to be in first or second place in many more seats. In 25, Labour was first or second in 469 seats; the Conservatives in 466 and the Liberal Democrats 251. Since 1997, the Liberal Democrats have increased the number of seats in which they were in second place: in 1997, Liberal Democrats were second in 13 seats in Great Britain; in 25 they were in second place in 189. However, there remain a relatively large number of seats (largely safe Labour or Conservative) in which the Liberal Democrats share of votes is low. In 25, the Liberal Democrats vote was less than 2% of the poll in 344 constituencies, compared with 16 for Labour and 165 for the Conservatives. 1 5 <1% 1-2% 2-3% 3-4% 4-5% 5+% Main parties election performance Labour won the 25 election with 35.2% of the votes. This is a fall of 5.5% points on 21 and the lowest share of the vote ever won by the leading party at a UK General Election. With 9.5 million votes, Labour polled the lowest number of votes for any party winning an election in the post-war period. Overall, the Conservatives gained vote share up by.6% points on 21 and gained 33 seats on their notional 21 position. This recovery, however, was largely confined to London and the South East. The Conservatives share of the vote fell in all the five northernmost regions of England. They also experienced a lower vote share in Greater Manchester, Merseyside, West Midlands, Tyne & Wear, South Yorkshire and West Yorkshire, compared with 21. Over the country as a whole, the Conservative vote share in seats in urban areas was unchanged and while their share of the vote on average increased in seats they previously held, it fell elsewhere. 1 iii

9 RESEARCH PAPER 5/44 Change in Labour vote share 21-5 by voter characteristics Change in Conservative vote share 21-5 by voter characteristics All: Gender: Men Women Age: Social class: AB C1 C2 DE Housing Owned Mortgaged Social renter Private Men by Age: Women by Men by AB C1 C2 DE Average -6% All: Gender: Men Women Age: Social class: AB C1 C2 DE Housing Owned Mortgaged Social renter Private Men by Age: Women by Men by AB C1 C2 DE Average % Women by AB C1 C2 DE % points Women by AB C1 C2 DE % points iv

10 RESEARCH PAPER 5/44 All: Gender: Men Women Age: Social class: AB C1 C2 DE Housing Owned Mortgaged Social renter Private Men by Age: Women by Men by AB C1 C2 DE Change in Liberal Democrat vote share 21-5 by voter characteristics Average +4% The Liberal Democrats share of the vote was up by 3.8% points and they gained 11 seats on their notional 21 total; giving them 62 seats in total. They did particularly well in seats where they had previously been in second place to Labour; here their average share of the vote increased by 7.7% points; but they did less well in Liberal Democrat-Conservative marginals. In seats where the Liberal Democrats had been second to the Conservatives in 21 the Liberal Democrats vote share was on average.5% points higher, while the Conservatives increased their share by an average of 1.4% points in the same seats. Whose votes did Labour lose? Data on voters behaviour will become available from the British Election Study; in the meantime, data from MORI s aggregate analysis of polls undertaken during the 25 election campaign shows the voting patterns of different groups in 25. These are based on responses by 18, individuals and have been adjusted to reflect the national result. The following sections look at preliminary MORI findings. 2 MORI figures suggest that, compared with 21, Labour lost votes among younger voters, particularly men in the 25 to 34 age group where the estimated vote share for Labour fell by 19% points. Those in the lower social class groups, C2s and DEs also turned away from Labour in favour of the Conservatives or Liberal Democrats. Labour s share of women s votes declined less than the share for men, and, unusually, women were more likely than men to have voted Labour. One of the few groups to see the Labour vote share rise (albeit only slightly) was women in social class AB, the professional and managerial group. Women by AB C1 C2 DE % points 2 Data taken from MORI Final Aggregate Analysis v

11 RESEARCH PAPER 5/44 Conservative voters The Conservatives experienced more mixed fortunes than Labour and Liberal Democrats. Overall, their share of the vote barely changed on 21, but this average is the result of gains and losses within different social groups. They lost share among women voters but gained it from men. There were some small gains in vote share for the Conservatives among pensioners and voters under 35, but this was countered by loss in vote share among the middle-aged; but this differed markedly between men and women. The Conservatives gained vote share across all age groups among men, but lost it for all age groups, except the oldest, among women. The Conservatives increased their vote share among C2 voters of both sexes, but lost it among those in the highest social class group. Liberal Democrats The Liberal Democrats 4% point increase in vote share was the result of particularly strong gains among young people. This was largely at the expense of Labour. Poll data suggest that Labour s losses were split between the Liberal Democrats and Conservatives, with the share between the two parties varying from one group to another. Labour s loss of vote share among C2s was, for example, accompanied by growth in the Liberal Democrat s and Conservative s; while among DEs the Liberal Democrat increase was a greater than the Conservative. Who votes for which party? Despite these large changes, Labour still won the largest share of the vote across a number of social groups. For example, in 25, in spite of the loss of support for Labour among those aged 25 to 34, Labour remains the party with the largest support among voters in this group; similarly, the Conservatives loss of support among Social Class AB was not sufficient to reduce their support to less than any other party among these voters. Support for the parties is strongly linked to social class. Labour support is lowest among professionals and managers (ABs) and increases further down the social scale. Conservative and Liberal Democrat support is lowest among the unskilled and increases progressively for higher groups. Labour and Liberal Democrat support tends to decrease with age, while the proportion voting Conservative generally rises with age. Gender: Housing tenure: Owned Mortgaged Social renter Private renter 25 General Election: voting by party by gender, age, social class and housing tenure MORI aggregate analysis Men Women Age: Social class: AB C1 C2 DE % share of the vote Lab Con LD Other Richard Cracknell x4632 vi

12 RESEARCH PAPER 5/44 IV NHS waiting lists and targets in England Why are waiting lists important? Labour has introduced 17 key targets concerning waiting lists since it entered office in 1997 (see final table). Targets are seen by the government as a way of measuring improvement in the service provided by the NHS. Waiting lists are frequently the subject of intense media interest, and perceived weaknesses within the recording system have meant that they have also been subject to more rigorous analysis from other independent bodies including the National Audit Office. ( What do NHS targets comprise? Targets can be general (for example, no one to wait more than 6 months for inpatient treatment), or specific (for example, no one with suspected breast cancer to wait more than 2 weeks for outpatient appointment following urgent GP referral). They are usually time-specific, i.e. the target must be achieved by a certain date, but sometimes can be ongoing. What counts as a reduction in waiting time? The total time a patient spends waiting at all stages of the care pathway is not measured. Thus there is no single indicator describing the total length of the care procedure from the patient perceiving a problem to discharge. The DH has two key waiting list indicators, one for outpatients and one for inpatients. Media attention tends to focus on the latter. A patient is placed on the outpatient appointment waiting list after referral from a GP. A patient only moves to the inpatient list after seeing a specialist and waiting for any test results. This is the wait for admission. The wait to see a specialist consultant is not measured. Nor is the wait after admission to hospital (for tests, operation, and discharge) counted. Inpatients what do the data show? The following chart shows the overall trend in inpatient waiting lists by length of wait since ,4, 1,2, 1,, 8, 6, 4, 2, Inpatient waiting times (weeks) since 1997, England Almost no one waits over 12 months to be placed on the admission list. Numbers waiting between 6 and 11 months are greatly reduced. The introduction of targets has coincided with a bunching of inpatient waits at the short end of the timescale. The following four charts show the performance of inpatient waiting lists with respect to set targets at 12, 9, 6, and 3 months. They all show a downward trend in numbers waiting, with sharp reductions at the time when the target deadline came into effect. 3-5 <3 vii

13 RESEARCH PAPER 5/44 % of total waiting 7% Proportion on waiting list for 12 months or more % of provider based inpatient list, England, at quarter end % of total waiting 3% Proportion on waiting list for 6 months or more % of provider based inpatient list, England, at quarter end 6% 5% 4% 3% Target deadline: March 23 25% 2% 15% Target deadline: March 25 2% 1% 1% 5% % Mar-97 Mar-98 Mar-99 Mar- Mar-1 Mar-2 Mar-3 Mar-4 Mar-5 % Mar-97 Mar-98 Mar-99 Mar- Mar-1 Mar-2 Mar-3 Mar-4 Mar-5 % of total waiting 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Proportion on waiting list for 9 months or more % of provider based inpatient list, England, at quarter end Target deadline: March 24 % Mar-97 Mar-98 Mar-99 Mar- Mar-1 Mar-2 Mar-3 Mar-4 Mar-5 % of total waiting 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Proportion on waiting list for 3 months or more % of provider based inpatient list, England, at quarter end Target deadline: End-28 % Mar-97 Mar-98 Mar-99 Mar- Mar-1 Mar-2 Mar-3 Mar-4 Mar-5 viii

14 RESEARCH PAPER 5/44 18, 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, Outpatients not yet seen at the end of quarter who have been waiting more than 26 weeks, England Mar Mar Mar Mar 2 31 Mar Mar 22 Target deadline: March Mar Mar 24 Outpatients what do the data show? Over 26 weeks The number of outpatients not seen waiting more than 26 weeks peaked at 159, at end-december Subsequently, there was a clear downward trend, reaching 84, at end- December 21. There was a sharp drop to under 1,5 outpatients not seen within 26 months at end-march 22, coinciding with the target deadline weeks The number of outpatients not seen waiting between 13 and 26 weeks peaked at 363, at end-september There has been a year-on-year reduction in the number not seen in this category, with a low point thus far of 42, at end-march 24. At end-december 24, the number not seen had risen slightly to 64,, with the target deadline due at the end of the following quarter. 4, 35, 3, 25, Outpatients not yet seen at the end of quarter who have been waiting weeks, England Target deadline: March 25 Other factors potentially reducing waiting lists A recent report from the King s Fund has suggested a number of other factors that may account for why improvements in waiting lists may have been recorded without necessarily improving the underlying situation ( These include: 2, 15, 1, 5, 31 Mar Mar Mar Mar 2 31 Mar Mar Mar Mar 24 Hospitals may clean up waiting lists by checking with those waiting whether they still wish to be treated. Changes in priorities within the list may lead to reductions in some categories of waits. The implication is that the average waiting time will change very little. Recording changes: In the absence of a clear distinction between diagnosis and treatment, porous boundaries in this and other areas can leave scope for uncertainty in data interpretation. ix

15 RESEARCH PAPER 5/44 Waiting list targets announced since England Target Date 1 Cut inpatient waiting lists by 1, from March 1997 level End 1997 parliament 2 No one with suspected breast cancer to wait more than 2 weeks for outpatient Apr- appointment following urgent GP referral 3 Number of outpatients waiting more than 13 weeks to be cut to 334, Mar- 4 No one to wait more than 4 weeks for treatment for testicular cancer, children's cancers Dec-1 and leukaemia following urgent GP referral 5 No one to wait more than 4 weeks for treatment for breast cancer following diagnosis Dec-1 6 No one with suspected cancer to wait more than 2 weeks for their first outpatient Dec- appointment, for patients referred urgently 7 Reduce number of people waiting over 12 months Mar-2 8 No one to wait more than 15 months for inpatient treatment Mar-2 9 No one to wait more than 12 months for inpatient treatment Mar-3 1 No one to wait more than 9 months for inpatient treatment Mar-4 11 No one to wait more than 6 months for inpatient treatment Mar-5 12 No one to wait more than 3 months for inpatient treatment (and an average End-28 wait of 1.5 months) 13 No one to wait more than 26 weeks for an outpatient appointment Mar-2 14 Reduce number of people waiting over 13 weeks Mar-2 15 No one to wait more than 13 weeks for an outpatient appointment Mar-5 16 All patients attending A&E to wait 4 hours or less, from arrival to admission, transfer Mar-4 or discharge 17 No patients to wait more than 24 hours for an appointment with a primary health care Mar-4 professional, and no more than 48 hours for an appointment with a GP Source: Department of Health; King's Fund For additional information, please contact: Contact: David Knott x2454 or Adam Mellows-Facer x6969 x

16 SN/SG/3663 RESEARCH PAPER 5/44 Waste and Recycling The latest estimate of total waste produced across the UK is for 21 when Defra estimated the total to be 434 million tonnes A variety of methods are used for estimating waste from each sector in any one year and over time, therefore data are not produced for each type in each year and the total is only given for the latest year. Landfill is still the most common way of dealing with municipal waste. 72%, or 21 million tonnes went to landfill in 23/4. Incineration has increased only slightly since 1996/97, while recycling/composting has increased rapidly in recent years to 19% in 23/4. The level of household waste per capita in England increased from just under 4 kg per capita in 1983/84 to 52 kg per capita in 22/3. Provisional data for 23/4 show the first decline in household waste. The amount of household waste recycled was 9kg per capita in 23/4, 17.6% of all household waste. Estimated total annual waste arisings by sector in the UK Million tonnes Management of minicipal waste in England Million tonnes Landfill Incineration Recycled/composted / / / / 2/1 21/2 22/3 23/ Agriculture 87 Minerals (Mining & quarrying) colliery coal china clay clay slate quarrying Sewage sludge 1 1 Dredged material Municipal waste of which household Commercial 28 Industrial 55 Demolition & construction 8 12 Total (latest available year) 434 Source: e-digest of Environmental Statistics, DEFRA Source: Municipal Waste Management Survey, Defra Household waste and recycling in England, kg per capita Waste not recycled Waste recycled/composted 1983/ / / /9 1991/ / /99 2/1 22/3 Source : Management of municipal waste 21/2 to 23/4, Defra Contact: Paul Bolton x6789 or Ross Young x4313 xi

17 SN/SG/3664 RESEARCH PAPER 5/44 Abortion In 23 over 18, legal abortions were performed on residents in England & Wales. A further 9, were performed on non-residents in England & Wales. In Scotland, legal abortions totalled 12, in percent of abortions were carried out before 13 weeks gestation; 58 percent were at under 1 weeks. The overwhelming majority of abortions were under ground C, that the pregnancy has not exceeded its 24 th week and that the continuance of the pregnancy would involve risk, greater than if the pregnancy were terminated, of injury to the physical and mental health of the pregnant woman. Legal abortions for residents by marital status England and Wales, 23 Total abortions Legal abortions for residents by gestation weeks England & Wales 23 8, 6, 4, 2, 3,11 41,437 6,534 53,377 9,592 5,765 4,849 Percentage Single no partner 51, % Single with partner 42, % Single not stated 16,18 8.9% Married 28, % Separated/widowed/divorced 6, % Not known & not stated 35, % Total 181,582 1% 1,562 1, and Gestation weeks over xii England & Wales 1 Scotland 2 Great Britain ,332 1,537 23, ,829 3,532 53, ,962 5,24 81, ,57 6,312 1, ,565 7, , ,568 7, , ,445 7, , ,224 7,31 113, ,912 7,2 19, ,677 7,38 19, ,851 7, , ,611 7, , ,927 7, , ,581 8, , ,553 8, , ,375 8, , ,388 9, , ,11 9,175 15, ,619 9, , ,191 9,45 165, ,298 1, , ,463 1,191 18, ,9 1,21 184, ,376 11,47 178, ,51 1, , ,846 11,55 168, ,539 11, , ,315 11, , ,916 11, , ,145 12,87 182, ,871 12,458 19, ,71 12, , ,542 11, , ,364 12, , ,932 11, , ,582 12, ,777 Source: Department of Health, Summary Abortion Statistics Notes: Legal abortions performed on residents: England & Wales, 23 ISD Scotland, Scottish Health Statistics 1 Before 1981 the figures are based on notifications received. From 1981 onwards the figures are based on occurrences. 2 Refers to therapeutic abortions notified in accordance with the Abortion Act figures contain only 8 months data as the legislation came into effect on 27 April Provisional Contact: Julien Anseau x431 or Richard Cracknell x4632

18 SN/SG/3678 RESEARCH PAPER 5/44 General Election 25: Summary On 5 May 25, Labour won 355 seats, 47 fewer than their notional 21 total and 65 more than all the other parties combined. The Conservatives won 197 seats, up 33, and the Liberal Democrats 62, up 11. Labour polled 35.2% of the vote, the lowest share ever by a winning party at a UK General Election and 5.5% points less than in 21. The Conservatives polled 32.3%, up.6% points, and the Liberal Democrats 22.1%, up 3.8% points. The Democratic Unionist Party won 9 of the 18 seats in Northern Ireland. Sinn Fein won 5 and the SDLP 8, while the Ulster Unionist Party retained one seat. Turnout was 61.5%, 2.1% points higher than in 21. For detailed analysis see Research Paper 5/33, General Election 25. Summary of voting in the United Kingdom Comparisons are with 21 results, using notional data for Scotland LD 22.1% Share of the vote by party, UK Others 1.4% LAB 35.2% Votes MPs Elected Number % share Change Candidates Number Change CON 32.3% Labour 9,547, % -5.5% Conservative 8,772, % +.6% Liberal Democrat 5,982, % +3.8% UK Independence Party 62, % +.7% Scottish National Party 412, % -.2% Green 257,717 1.% +.3% Democratic Unionist Party 241,856.9% +.2% British National Party 192,746.7% +.5% Plaid Cymru 174,838.6% -.1% Sinn Fein 174,53.6% -.% Ulster Unionist Party 127,414.5% -.4% Social Democratic & Labour Party 125,626.5% -.2% Respect-Unity Coalition 68,94.3% Scottish Socialist Party 43,514.2% -.1% Veritas 4,481.1% Alliance Party 28,291.1% Scottish Green Party 25,76.1% Socialist Labour Party 2,192.1% -.1% Others 285, % +.% CON LAB LD Others -5.5% Change in % share of the vote 21-25: UK % points +.6% +1.7% +3.8% -8% -6% -4% -2% +2% +4% +6% +8% Total 27,123,697 3, Note: Includes the five candidates in the postponed election in South Staffordshire xiii Contact: Adam Mellows-Facer x6969 or Ross Young x4313

19 SN/SG/2613 Agricultural incomes and subsidies Forecasts for 24 suggest that total income from farming (TIFF) fell slightly by 2.6% in real terms. TIFF per full time person equivalent is forecast to fall by 1.1% to 16,. The largest increases in TIFF in recent years were in the early 199s. TIFF increased by over a third in 1993 alone, in 1995, it reached 6.6 billion at today s prices. Total public subsidies under the CAP and national schemes increased dramatically in the early 199s with the introduction of arable area payments. The total value of subsidies and other payments (excluding taxes) was 2.9 billion in 24. Subsidies on production (like set-aside and less favourable area payments) have increased recently and made up around 2% of the total in recent years Total income from farming billion at 24 prices Real farm incomes in the UK: At 24 prices Total income from farming (TIFF) TIFF per wholetime person equivalent billion per head Sources:. First Forecast of Total Income from Farming in the UK 24, DEFRA Agriculture in the United Kingdom 23, Table Subsidies and other payments made to farmers in the UK billion 24 prices Other subsidies on production Subsidies on products Next Update: November 25 1 Contact: Paul Bolton x6789 or Richard Cracknell x4632

20 Pre-register improvement Post-register improvement SN/SG/2614 Agricultural labour and output Improvements in the register of agricultural workers in 21 mean that data on agricultural labour from before and after this time are not directly comparable. The total labour force increased by 13,, or 2.5 % in 24, the first increase over the period shown. The size of the workforce in 24 was still 15, or 22% below the 1984 figure. The majority of this decline has been in hired workers. In 24 output of agriculture increased by.9% (at market prices), compared to a fall of 1% in 23. There were particularly large increases in the output of fruit and potatoes. Over the longer-term, total output increased by around 25% between the early 197s and early 198s, but has changed relatively little since. Output (at market prices) in 24 was 4% lower than in Total Fruit Potatoes Other crops Veg/horticulture Cereals Livestock/livestock products UK agriculture: Output by sector percentage change 23 to % +.9% +2.4% +1.9% +1.9% +13.8% +17.1% Forage plants -2.7% Labour force in agriculture: UK, Thousands, at June Industrial crops -4.6% -1% -5% +% +5% +1% +15% +2% Workers Farmers, partners, directors and spouses Total labour force 8 UK labour force in agriculture: s Notes: Results for 21 including the effect of improvements in data for England are not comparable with previous years Source: Agriculture in the UK 24, Table Next update: January 26 Contact: Paul Bolton x6789 or Richard Cracknell x4632 2

21 SN/SG/2615 Police numbers As measured under the data collection system introduced from March 23, there were 14,563 police officers in England and Wales on 31 March 24, a year on year increase of 5 per cent. Adjusted police strength, for comparison with figures prior to March 23, stood at 139,2 in March 24, the highest level on record. Police forces recruited 13,137 officers in the 12 months to March 24, with 7,139 officers leaving. It is estimated that 1,5 of those leaving/joining were transferring between Home Office forces. The proportion of women in the police service in England and Wales has increased from 7 percent in 1977 to over 2 percent by 24. On 31 March 24, there were 4,577 minority ethnic officers in the 43 police forces of England and Wales. Ethnic minority strength as a proportion of total police service strength increased from 1. percent in 1989 to 3.3 percent in March , Police officer strength, England and Wales Consistent series - FTE including secondments at 31st March Total police officer strength, England and Wales Consistent series - FTE at 31 March (unless otherwise stated) ,51 18, % 2,15 1.7% 127, ,756 19, % 2,483 2.% 126, ,841 19, % 2,52 2.% 126, ,956 2, % 2, % 124, ,476 21, % 2, % 125, ,267 22, % 3, % 129, ,426 25, % 3, % 133, ,15 27, % 4, % 139,2 Source: Total excluding Female Of which: Ethnic minority Total secondments Number % Number % strength Home Office Statistical Bulletin, Police Service Strength, England & Wales Six month changes in police officer strength Consistent series - FTE, England and Wales , 4, 3, , 13, 125, 12, 115, 11, 15, 1, , 2, 1, -1, -2, 35 Mar Sep Mar 98 Sep Mar 99 Sep 99-1,224 Mar 416 Sep 1,96 Mar 1 1,549 Sep 1 2,372 Mar 2 1,945 1,818 Sep 2 Mar 3 Sep 3 2,43 Mar 4 Next update: September 25 Contact: Gavin Berman 3851 or Ross Young x4313 3

22 SN/SG/2616 Police funding External provision for police forces in England and Wales consists of all Home Office police grants, Revenue Support Grant (RSG) and Business Rates (NNDR). The provisional figures for 25/6 show that police forces will receive approximately 8m in NNDR, 2.bn in RSG and 4.3bn in Home Office police grant. Gross revenue expenditure, in real terms, increased every year between 1996/97 and 23/4, except 22/3. In 21/2, 8 percent of police forces gross revenue expenditure was financed through government. In 23/4 this proportion is expected to fall to less than 7 percent. This was due to a large fall in real Home Office police grants. The amount of police expenditure financed through council tax has doubled, in real terms, between 1996/97 and 23/4. Council tax now accounts for 2 percent of police force expenditure finance, compared to 12 percent in 21/2. Police funding and expenditure, England and Wales 1996/97 to 23/4 21/2 prices, million Revenue Home Gross Business support Office Council Net Generated revenue rates grant grants Tax req'ment income expend. 1996/97 1,25 1,65 3, , , /98 1,125 1,652 3,777 1,28 7, , /99 1,86 1,626 3,925 1,13 7, , / 1,158 1,583 3,89 1,176 7, ,177 2/1 1,19 1,238 4,411 1,127 7, ,518 21/2 1,22 1,64 5,94 1,95 8, ,971 22/3 1,268 1,439 3,888 1,581 8, ,885 23/4 74 1,93 4,7 1,942 8, ,611 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % 25% 2% 15% 1% 5% 84.7% Proportion of expenditure financed through external provision 82.8% 83.% 81.1% 8.3% 8.% 74.2% 69.8% 1996/ / / / 2/1 21/2 22/3 23/4 11.9% Proportion of expenditure financed through council tax 13.% 13.8% 14.4% 13.2% 12.2% 17.8% 2.2% Note: Source: Adjusted using April 23 GDP deflator CIPFA, Police statistics % 1996/ / / / 2/1 21/2 22/3 23/4 Next update: Winter 25 Contact: Gavin Berman x3851 or Ross Young x4314 4

23 SN/SG/2617 Crime There are two main measures of crime: the number of crimes recorded by the police and crimes measured under the British Crime Survey (BCS). The BCS measures crimes against adults living in private households in England and Wales. In the year to June 24 the BCS crime estimate was 11.3 million, a decrease of 7 percent on the year to June 23. There were 5.85 million offences recorded by the police in the year to June 24, a 1% fall over the previous year s figure. It is estimated that total crimes recorded in 22/3 were 1 percent higher than they would have been under pre-national Crime Recording Standard recording. Recorded Violence against the Person (VATP) crime was estimated to be 23 percent higher and burglary from a dwelling 3 percent higher than otherwise would have been the case. Drug offence figures are unaffected. The figures in the chart below have been adjusted for the NCRS effect. 15 Trends in recorded crime by offence Index 1997/98 = 1 2% 15% 1% 5% % -5% -1% -15% Annual % change in police recorded crime: /4 +17% +16% +1% +8% +7% +6% +7% +7% +3% +4% +4% +1% +1% -% -1% -3% -1% -1% -5% -5% -2% -9% /1 3/4 Annual % change in BCS crime / % 13 VATP +11% 12 1% 11 Total all offences 5% +4% +3% +3% +2% 1 % Drug offences Burglary (dwelling) -5% -1% -7% -5% -6% -2% -5% -11% / / / 2/1 21/2 22/3 23/4-15% /2 1/2-2/3 2/3-3/4 Next update: January 25 5 Contact: Gavin Berman x3851 or Ross Young x4313

24 SN/SG/2618 Crime: international comparisons Due to differences in recording practices, absolute comparisons between recorded crime levels in different countries may be misleading. However, the definition of homicide is similar in most countries. The police in England and Wales recorded 1.6 homicides per 1, population in In Scotland 2.2 homicides per 1, population were recorded, compared to 2.7 in Northern Ireland. The United States has the highest homicide rate of major developed countries, 5.6 per 1, in In South Africa the rate in was 55.9 homicides per 1, population. The homicide rate in London is above that in Paris and Madrid but well below that in New York. Contact crimes are robbery, assaults with force and sexual assaults. Belfast Amsterd. Brussels Vienna Stockholm London Berlin Helsinki Paris Dublin Madrid Copenhag. Lisbon Edinburgh Rome Athens Wash.DC New York San Fran. Sydney Tokyo Next update: October 25 Homicides per 1, population, Excludes 11 September 21 attacks Source: Home Office Statistical Bulletin 12/ > Homicides per 1, population, USA Fin NI Sco Aus Bel Can Fra E&W Net Ita Ire Gre Aut Por Ger Spa Swe Jap Den Source: Home Office Statistical Bulletin 12/ Victimisation rate % victim of contact crime once or more in Aus E&W Sco Can Fin Pol NI Den Fra Swe Swi Net USA Bel Spa Por Jap Source: Home Office Statistical Bulletin 12/ Contact: Gavin Berman x3851 or Ross Young x

25 SN/SG/2619 Drug misuse In 22/3, 82, drug mis-users presented for treatment for the first time in England. This was the highest ever recorded number - an increase of 7 percent on 21/2 and more than double the total recorded in 1993/ percent of drug mis-users treated during 22/3 successfully completed their treatment. 4 percent were still in treatment at the end of March 23. Data for 23/4 have not yet been published. Between 199 and 22, the number of seizures of controlled substances more than doubled from 61, to 137,34. Cannabis was the controlled substance seized most frequently, accounting for 75 percent of all seizures in 22, compared to heroin (11 percent) and ecstasy (6 percent). The purity of several of the most commonly seized controlled substances has increased over time. For example, the purity of heroin seized by the police rose from 35 percent in 1997 to 49 percent in 21, falling back to 4 percent in 22. The purity of crack and cocaine has tended to be much higher. In 22, the average purity of cocaine seized by the police was 61 percent while the average purity of crack was 71 percent Users starting agency episodes England, s / / / / 2/1 21/2 22/ Seizures of drugs, UK, s Class A Class B Successfully completed 18% Treatment outcomes, 22/3 England Other completion 6% Prison 1% Retained 39% Dropped out 36% Next update: October 25 7 Contact: Ross Young x4313 or Gavin Berman x3851

26 SN/SG/262 Prison population The prison population was 74,891 on 3 April 25, a.6% year-on-year decrease. Female prisoners accounted for 5.9% of the total prison population. The total population is 1,8 below the maximum safe operational capacity of the prison estate. The prison population in post-war England and Wales has been rising steadily. Over the past decade, however, this increase has become more marked: the average prison population has increased by almost two-thirds. In the UK there were 122 prisoners per 1, population in 23, the third highest rate in Western Europe, after Spain and Portugal. The US, which has almost 2 million prisoners, has the highest rate in the developed world (71) while Japan (53) has the lowest. Prison population by sex of prisoner England and Wales, average of monthly totals Males Females Total 198 4, % 1, % 42, , % 1, % 44, , 7, Prison population - Rate per 1, population, 22/ USA Rus SA Spa Por UK Ita Net Aut Ger Fra Bel Ire Lux Gre Swe Fin Den Jap Prison population, England and Wales, , % 2, % 61, , % 3,15 4.8% 65, , % 3,247 5.% 64, , % 3,35 5.2% 64, , % 3, % 66, , % 4, % 7, , % 4, % 73, , % 4,519 6.% 74,863 Sources: Home Office, Prison statistics, England & Wales Prison population brief, England & Wales 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Next update: July 25 Contact: Gavin Berman x3851 or Ross Young x4313 8

27 SN/SG/2621 Defence employment On 21st July 24 the Secretary of State for Defence presented to Parliament the command paper Delivering Security in a Changing World - Future Capabilities. The command paper suggests that the Army trained establishment will be reduced from its current trained establishment to a target of 12, by 28. The RAF trained strength will be reduced from the current level to approximately 41, by April 28. The Navy will see reductions in its strength from 37,5 to 36,. It is also envisaged that there will be reductions of around 1, in the number of civilian jobs. Between April 1997 and April 25, the number of UK regular forces fell by 5 percent. Naval service employment fell by 11 percent, and RAF by 9 percent, but Army employment rose by 4 percent. Since April 24 there have been falls in the regular manpower of each of the services. Since 198 both naval service and RAF employment have fallen by about 4 percent and Army employment by 3 percent. UK regular armed forces manpower at 1st April Total Regular Forces Navy Army RAF Officers Other Ranks ,1 18,8 56,9 32,7 178, ,47 19,83 55,84 32,62 177, ,7 19,72 55,21 32,24 176,4 2 42,85 11,5 54,72 32,52 175, ,42 19,53 53,7 32,63 173, ,63 11,5 53, 32,75 171, ,55 112,13 53,24 33,16 173, ,88 112,75 53,39 33,45 173, ,94 19,29 51,87 33, 168,1 Sources: MoD Statistical Bulletin TSP1, April 25 & previous editions +2% % change in armed forces personnel Annual % change in UK armed forces manpower at April +1% +9% +7% +1% 2% +1.1% 1% -1% % +.% -2% -3% -23% -29% -3% -31% -31% -34% -35% -25% -1% -2% -.3% -.7% -.5% -.9% -.5% -4% -3% -2.9% -5% -48% -49% -49% -4% -6% -7% -56% -61% Lux Tur Gre Por Can Den UK USA Ita Fra Ger Spa Net Nor Bel NATO -5% -6% -5.% Next update: September 25 Contact: Gavin Berman x3851 or David Knott x2454 9

28 SN/SG/2622 Defence expenditure Defence expenditure is planned to be 2.3 percent of GDP in the current financial year and 2.2 percent in each subsequent year to 27/8. This has been on a downward trend since 1984/85 when the figure was 5.3 percent. Planned real terms defence expenditure is almost 3 percent below the figure in 1984/85. Defence expenditure other than that on personnel and equipment has increased as a share of the total since 1997/98. This series is no longer published by the Ministry of Defence. Military expenditure as a proportion of GDP has fallen since the 198s in all NATO member countries except Turkey. Between 1985 and 1989, average defence expenditure in NATO member countries was 4.6 percent of GDP. By 23 this had fallen to 2.7 percent UK defence budget bn, constant 23/4 prices 1979/8 1982/ / / / / /98 2/1 23/4 26/7 Estimates of MoD peacekeeping costs, m: 23/4 6 Miltary expenditure 23 (% of GDP) est. By NATO definition Balkans 112 Afghanistan 55 DR Congo 2 Iraq 1, Tur Gre US Fra UK Chz Por Pol Nor Hun Ita Net Den Ger Bel Spa Can Lux NATO NATO EU Total Next update: September 25 1 Contact: Gavin Berman x3851 or David Knott x2454

29 SN/SG/2623 Defence exports The real value of global arms deliveries fell by almost a third between 22 and 23. There has been a downwards trend in the value of deliveries since the peak of almost US$ 57.5bn in These figures are in constant 23 US$. In 1987 the USSR accounted for over one third of the value of arms deliveries. By contrast, Russia accounted for just 4.8 percent in The Russian share of the market fell from 16.3 percent in 21 to 12.2 percent in 22. The US share of the world market was 47.4 percent in 23, compared with 27. percent in The UK was the second largest exporter with 16.3 percent of the market. Value of arms deliveries and market share Constant 23 US$m / percentage of total in italics US 19, , , , , UK 8, , , , , Russia 2, , , , , France 7, , , , ,2 4.2 Germany 1, , ,2 4.2 Others 9, , , , , Total 49,976 36,155 41,385 41,895 28,784 Annual % change in real global value of arms deliveries Source: International Institute for Strategic Studies, The Military Balance 24/25, table 43 2% 12.2% 15.1% 14.5% 7 Arms deliveries market share, % 1% 6 % 1.2% 5 USA 4-1% 3-2% -18.3% -23.1% 2 UK -3% -4% -31.3% Russia (USSR) Next Update: November 25 Contact: Gavin Berman 3851 or David Knott x

30 SN/SG/2624 Class sizes The average primary class size is 26 pupils, down from 28 in 1998, but still higher than the average of 24 in The percentage of primary pupils in large classes (>3) declined from 33 percent in 1997 to 15 percent in 24. The average secondary class size has been steady at 22 pupils per class in recent years. The average class size fell during the 198s before rising to current levels in the 199s. A similar trend is evident for the percentage of secondary pupils in large classes (>3). The proportion of pupils in large classes rose from 6.3 percent in 1991 to 11.7 percent in 21, with a small increase to 12 percent in 24. Single teacher class sizes in maintained schools England, January each year Average class size Primary % of pupils in classes of over 3 Average class size Secondary % of pupils in classes of over % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % 24 (p) % % Sources: DfES SFR 9/3 Class sizes in maintained schools in England DfEE Statistical volume Schools in England 2 % of pupils in large classes 4% 35% 3% 25% 2% 15% 1% 5% % Class sizes in primary schools in England % of pupils in large classes 18% 16% 14% 12% 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % % of pupils in large classes Average class size Class sizes in secondary schools in England % of pupils in large classes Average class size Average class size Average class size Next update: February 26 Contact: David Knott x2454 or Gavin Berman x