Distributive systems of Economic Policy

Transcription

1 Distributive systems of Economic Policy Pension Systems

2 Pension, the Zero Sum Game SUM(Contributions)=SUM(Benefits)

3 Goals PENSION SYSTEM Reduce old age poverty Uncrease (smooth) consumption in time Reduce old age poverty New Zealand, England Australia USA Germany, France Singapore, Austria, Sweden Smooth consumption in time

4 Old age poverty 2008

5 Reasons PENSION SYSTEM Short sightedness of employees Moral hazard: people are eager to overconsume in their young age in their belief that they will be helped out in their old age In traditional societies families care about their old members. As societies have been modernising some elderly people remained without care. Risks of self-care: in the lack of secure financial markets people invested in property, stock, jewellery which are insecure in long term (because of wars, diseases etc.)

6 Dominant Methods of Financing and Managing Pensions Financing Managing Contributory scheme Pay-as-you-go Fully funded Non-contributory scheme: for those who cannot pay contribution (e.g.: housewife, armed forces employee) State (or social security fund) managed Hungary, Germany, France, Singapore Singapore (for armed forces and some gov. employees) New Zealand (minimum sum scheme for all citizens) Market (or company) managed GM, Ford USA These are just guide-lines, each system is a kind of mixed

7 Dominant Ways of Financing and Managing Pensions All operating systems are mixed

8 Financing: pros and cons PENSION SYSTEM Pay-as-you-go Political risk Administrative costs in Hungary: 1,5% of contributions Fully funded Market risk Administrative costs (incl. capital adequacy, profit) in Hungary: 5-6% in Australia: 0,7-0,9 %

9 Three pillars of pension systems Hungarian system was like this until 2010 november Compulsory pay-as-you-go Compulsory funded Supplementary funded Closing down the 2nd pillar initially for 14 months is controversial

10 Three pillars of pension systems Hungarian system was like this until 2010 november Compulsory pay-as-you-go Compulsory funded Supplementary funded Closing down the 2nd pillar initially for 14 months is controversial

11 Dispute about the second pillar Balance of the pension system One pillar system Mixed system 1. Annually 1,5 %/GDP deficit in the pension system until 2050 because of 2nd pillar (ca. 50 % in total) % of private pension funds portfolio is in Hungarian government bonds (they buy back the bonds which are issued because of the deficit caused by pension funds) 3. High operating costs of Hungarian private pension funds: ca. 4,5 %

12 Age tree in Hungary Men Women 1. Fertility rate = 1,3 (Gipsies = 5, Hungarians = 0,8) To maintain population 2,1 fertility rate is needed 2. There will be 6,5-7 million Hungarian citizens by 2050 (1/3 of it will be with gipsy nationality) 3. Currently the unemployment rate within the gipsy population is ca. 90 %

13 Pensioners and actives in Hungary 1. High number of disability pensioners: ca (8 % of population) 2. Half of it is already above age limit 3. Low economic activity rate Economic activity rate Disability Old Age Lost Relatives 10 new EU countries EU average Men Women

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15 Current challenges and answers in the PAYG systems Ageing population: more pensioners less workers Possible solutions increasing contribution increasing age limit decreasing pensions OR?!"#"$%&'()*"+,"-+-(./'0+&"/1%0&1" <K `=P P O=P K EA4J', )*"%')%B'")*" +),-.&/ $/' f<^q^!g",'b$6.0'"6)"&a4j', )*" %')%B'")*",'6.,'4'&6"$/' f^p\g 8B5'(6 89:;" 3)A&6,1 89:; $0',$/' e)a&/'(6 89:;" 3)A&6,1 <>PK <>^K <>`K <>_K <>>K OKKK OK<K OKOK OK]K OK!K OKPK "

16 OR? reproduction old age pension = sex + savings