Serkan Ozcan Head of Economic Research & Strategy OdeaBank

Transcription

1 Turkish- Arab Economic Forum Panel 4 - Prospects for the Integra<on of Banking and Financial Markets Serkan Ozcan Head of Economic Research & Strategy OdeaBank

2 and MENA: Why More Integra6on is Needed? Serkan ÖZCAN Assistant General Manager, Economic Research & Strategy April 213

3 Why is ARrac<ve to MENA Investors? v As the 17th largest economy in the world, Turkish economy offers immense opportuni<es for investors v is one of the most prominent and high growth poten<al emerging markets with a developed financial infrastructure and compara<vely deep and sophis<cated financial markets v s GDP is as big as one fourth of MENA countries total GDP. Decelera<on in oil prices may cause this ra<o to increase in the forthcoming period. v As it was in the last decade, emerging countries and commodity exporters are expected to record higher growth compared to the rest of the world in the next 5 years GDP per Capita (PPP, US$) MENA Economic Scale & Oil Prices 37% 35% 33% 31% % Oil prices (lhs, reverse scale) Nominal GDP: /MENA 27% 25% F 214F 215F 216F 217F F Source: IMF, Odeabank Research 3

4 Fiscal Outlook of Compared to MENA v Afer the Lehman s collapse and the succeeding global downturn, fiscal discipline became even more important. In this respect, and commodity exporters have reduced their deficits while fiscal outlook in advanced economies deteriorated significantly in the post crisis era Change in budget balance/gdp (incremental % pts) (27-212) MENA - 6 Change in Public debt stock/gdp (incremental % pts) (27-212) Eurozone Advanced economies General Government Debt Stock to GDP Ra6o (PPP, %) MENA Source: IMF, Odeabank Research 4

5 Price Stability v Prior to 26 infla<on in was very vola<le and significantly higher than peers contrary to MENA countries. Afer 26, infla<on in came below MENA average thanks to sustaining coordinated and disciplined monetary and fiscal policies 2 Infla6on (%) MENA F 214F Source: IMF, Odeabank Research 5

6 A New Objec<ve for Central Bank of v A healthy banking sector and downward trend in public debt stock as well as unconven<onal expansion in global monetary policy gave the opportunity to focus on financial stability in tandem with price stability in. More importantly, GDP per capita in, afer 3 <mes increase in the last decade, is expected to grow by another 2.2 <mes to US$ 25, as of 223. v Not only local investors but also global investors appe<te for has increased thanks to the improvement in macroeconomic stability fueled by the fall in real interest rates. This is reflected to the drama<c fall in s CDS rates in recent years. v In late 21, CBT has introduced a new monetary policy framework, focusing financial stability as a supplementary objec<ve without prejudice to primary objec<ve of price stability. 3% 25% 2% 15% 1% 5% % - 5% Real Rates in 21-4 average: 2% average: 8% February 213 average: 1.5% 211 Source: TURKSTAT, ISE, Bloomberg, Odeabank Research Year CDS Lebanon Qatar 6

7 : Leading Liberal Economy in MENA Region Financial Freedom Index Heat map as of 213 v An overall score on a scale of to 1 is given to an economy s financial freedom through deduc<ons from the ideal score of 1. Source: Heritage Founda<on 7

8 s Healthy and Resilient Banking Sector v has a strongly capitalized, <ghtly regulated but low risk and high return banking sector. These are reflected to the high CAR and ROE and low NPL figures compared to MENA region countries UAE NPL (Larger bubble means higher NPL ratios) CAR (%) Kuwait Jordan Egypt Oman Saudi Arabia 14 Lebanon ROE (%) Source: IMF, Odeabank Research 8

9 Stemming from Strong Fundamentals 18 Infrastructure Loans Equi1es Penetra1on Savings Middle East & North Africa (developing only) Automated teller machines (ATMs) (per 1, adults) Branches, commercial banks (per 1, adults ) Credit card (%, age 15+) * Loan in the past year (%, age 15+) * Stocks traded, turnover ra<o (%) Account at a formal financial ins<tu<on (% age 15+) * Saved any money in the past year (%, age 15+) * * Notes: % age 15+ refers to ra<o of number of people having the product to the number of people. Ages 15 and older are generally considered as the working- age popula<on hence ra<os are derived for people older than 15 years. v Turkish Banking sectors strong results and outlook stems from the strong fundamentals of s economy and financial markets. These fundamentals also reveal how good of a economic match and MENA financial markets are in terms of integra<on. is a country with developed financial infrastructure and know- how and strong growth prospects but insufficient savings whereas MENA is less developed in terms of financial infrastructure but with abundant resources and savings surplus. 9

10 Banking Infrastructure in Compared to MENA Private Credit Bureau Coverage (% of adults) Middle East & North Africa (developing only) Middle East & North Africa (all income levels) Strength of legal rights index (=weak to 1=strong) Middle East & North Africa (all income levels) Middle East & North Africa (developing only) Source: World Bank Source: World Bank v Sound banking infrastructure and credit alloca<on know- how in provides enough standardiza<on and transparency for efficient flow of funds through the banking system v is con<nuously upda<ng its regulatory and supervisory frameworks for banks in line with ongoing global ini<a<ves and strengthening disclosure requirements. v has sufficient exper<se and experience in the field of banking supervision and well anchored credit alloca<on tools for assessing risks of various consumer, corporate and SME businesses. v There exists a huge poten<al for coopera<on of banking systems of and MENA countries especially in trade finance area. v Istanbul Finance Center project is aiming to create a regional hub where will be able to share its financial know- how and infrastructure with market par<cipants across the MENA region 1

11 A Turkish- Arab Start- Up Venture Success Story: Odeabank v Only afer 3 months afer the commencement of its opera<ons, Odeabank reached assets size of TL 3.6bn v The success we have achieved so far, despite the challenges of star<ng up a bank in afer 14 years is important not only for our shareholders, but also crucial to demonstrate the opportuni<es and poten<al offered to other Arab banks/players seeking access to Turkish banking system. v Our target is to reach 1 branches and 12 billion dollars of assets within 5 years. v Our other target is to place Odeabank on the second rank only afer the HQ in Lebanon within the Bank Audi Group, the fourth largest bank in the MENA region. Odeabank s ranking* among 49 banks in : Deposits #23 Loans #29 Assets #27 Paid- in Capital #22 Number of employees #25 Number of branches #26 * Es<mated ranking as of YE

12 Thanks for your attention... Serkan ÖZCAN Assistant General Manager, Economic Research & Strategy April 213