Ministry of Finance of Georgia. Georgia The Outlook. January 2018

Transcription

1 Ministry of Finance of Georgia Georgia The Outlook January 2018

2 Axes of Georgia s Long-Term Growth Strategy The Government of Georgia s long-term strategy seeks sustained and inclusive growth that is based on macroeconomic stability The Government aims to maintain a sound macroeconomic environment, backed by prudent fiscal, monetary and financial policies. Structural reforms to improve governance, encourage employment, and reduce poverty are priorities on the agenda The Authorities are striving to deliver reforms aiming at promoting the formation of a robust and free private sector assisted by an efficient and fully transparent government Fostering a vibrant, competitive private sector, both on an internal and external levels, is perceived as a top priority for the Georgian authorities In that regard, Georgia set a two-legged long term growth strategy (Georgia 2020 and sectoral development policies) aiming to achieve a profound transformation of the country s macroeconomic framework. Goals of these two strategic plans are highlighted below PLANS GEORGIA 2020: SOCIAL-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY OF GEORGIA SECTORAL DEVELOPMENT POLICIES GOALS Fostering inclusive economic growth through Reduced unemployment Improved labor and living conditions Establishment of social protection system Human capital development Fostering exports through selected key sectors with high growth and export potential Tourism Hydro Power Agriculture Transport THREE MAIN AXES OF GEORGIA 2020 STRATEGY PRIVATE SECTOR COMPETITIVENESS HUMAN CAPITAL DEVELOPMENT ACCESS TO FINANCE Source: Ministry of Finance 2

3 Four-Point Plan For Rapid Development of The country Improve Business Environment Promoting Open Governance Deposit Insurance Pension Reform PPP Framework Capital Market Reforms Insolvency Legislation Public Investment Management Reform Inclusive Governance Involvement of the Private Sector in Legislative Process Building physical and virtual space for one stop service Public Finance Management Reform Road Infrastructure Land Reform Infrastructure Development Expansion of the South Caucasus Pipeline through Azerbaijan and Georgia Spatial development Education Reform Promotion of Professional Education General Education Reform Fundamental Reform of Higher Education 3

4 Economic Structure and Trends 4

5 Economic Structure and Trends Reform-driven economic success: story in numbers GDP: crisis had temporary impact on steady growth Rapidly growing GDP per capita PPP and Nominal Nominal GDP (US$bln) Real GDP growth, y-o-y (%) % 2.4% 6.4% 6.2% 3.4% 4.6% 2.9% 2.8% -3.7% 5.3% 4.9%4.4% % 12% 9% 6% 3% 0% -3% -6% 11,000 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 GDP per capita (PPP) Nominal GDP per capita (US$) 10,100 9,210 9,591 8,526 8,002 7,287 5,789 6,125 6,568 6,026 3,676 3,767 3,852 2,921 2,315 2,455 2,623 3,231 3,523 3, Economic growth comparison across countries, 2016 Broad-based and diversified nominal GDP structure, 2017 Q Growth rates are from IMF WEO October, 2017 *Indicates estimates for Other Sectors 20.5% Healthcare & Social Assistance 5.6% Real estate, renting and business activities 7.1% Public Administration 6.8% Construction 10.2% Trade 18.7% Industry 11.8% Transport & Communications 10.7% Agriculture 8.6% 5

6 The Historic Signing of the EU-Georgia Association Agreement is a huge step forward in Georgia s external relations The EU-Georgia Association Agenda, signed on 27 June 2014, deepen and strengthen the political, economic and cooperative relations between the EU and Georgia The Association Agreement establishes a long-term foundation for future EU-Georgia relations, based on set of jointly agreed priorities for the period , including a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area ( DCFTA ) The Association Agreement creates a practical framework for achieving EU-Georgia political association and economic integration The Association Agreement incorporates political elements, reforms to strengthen democratic institutions, cooperation on foreign and security policy, amongst others All axes will have significant positive impacts in strengthening Georgia s economy, institutions and external perception The agreement with the EU will also help to reduce the perception of geopolitical risk, as cooperation on a security level is also a priority Russia has not sent the same negative signals after Georgia signed EU cooperation agreement, contrary to what it did for Ukraine and Moldova The recent lift of the Russian ban is symbolic of a new trend of commercial relations between Georgia and Russia The Association Agenda also includes economic and trade elements, including a dedicated DCFTA chapter and cooperation in a number of sectors such as energy, transport, employment and social policy The signing of the Agenda will allow for EU financial support, technical expertise and advice, information sharing, and capacity building, all of which will support Georgia in its economic development The signing of the Association Agreement with the EU on June 27th sends a very positive message to the markets, and helps to promote exports to the area from onwards The strengthening of EU-Georgia ties will help to contribute to economic recovery and growth, and will help to better integration of the Georgian economy within the world markets The signing of the Agreement proves Georgia s commitment to sustainable growth, democracy and transparency, will add momentum to the consolidation of Georgia s stance as an interesting country for 6 investment

7 Economic Structure and Trends Liberalized trade, diverse partners, significant and growing network of free trade agreements Simple tax and customs policy and user friendly procedures No quantitative restrictions or tariff barriers Genuine commitment to trade liberalism and openness Free trade agreement signed with neighboring countries Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement (DCFTA) with the EU was ratified by many members of the EU Georgia has returned to Russian market Free trade agreement signed with China Other Countries 40.4% Armenia 5.8% Other products 45.0% Export Structure by Country 2018 January France 5.9% USA 6.7% Romania 6.6% Azerbaijan 9.1% Export Structure by Product 2018 January Medicaments 4.2% Mineral Import Structure by Country 2018 January Russia 12.9% EU - 29% Turkey 14.1% Other EU - 25% Countries 38.3% Azerbaijan Turkey 12.6% 11.9% Copper ores 15.3% Ferro-alloys 12.3% Motor cars 7.0% Grape Wine 5.9% Petroleum 5.2% Germany Armenia 4.9% Ukraine 5.7% China 9.6% Russia 11.0% Excluding import of medicaments from Canada and Ireland (medicaments for c hepatitis) Import Structure by Product 2018 January Other products 65.5% Petroleum 9.6% Gases 8.2% Motor cars 5.0% Copper ores 4.4% Medicaments 2.8% Telephones 2.3% Calculating Machines 2.1% Excluding import of medicaments for c hepatitis 7

8 Fiscal Framework and Public Debt Performance 8

9 Million GEL Million GEL Fiscal Framework and Public Debt Performance Strong fiscal consolidation path driven by sustainably high revenues and prudent government spending Fiscal Consolidation 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, ,676 8,963 8, P 9,126 8,180 7,731 2,071 1,504 Revenues Current Spending Capital Spending and Net Lending 1,965 Primary Balance Operating Balance Overal Balance Operating Balance as a % og GDP 1, % 5.6% % % 4.0% % 0 2.4% % % % P Fiscal Balance as a percentage of GDP Composition of the 2016 State Budget Outlays 0% -2% -4% -6% P -2.6% -3.4% -3.6% -2.8% -2.6% -3.2%-3.7%-4.1% -4.8% -6.5% -6.7% Regional Development, Infrastructure and Tourism 13.5% Education 12.8% Other 15.2% -8% -10% -9.2% Defense,Publi c Order and Security 19.2% Health Care, Social Protection 39.3% 9

10 Fiscal Framework and Public Debt Performance Strategic Infrastructure Projects with Significant Positive Externalities and Strong Spillovers into the Rest of the Economy Energy Infrastructure Rehabilitation/construction of transmission line network Rehabilitation/ Construction of HPPs Roads Infrastructure Construction of the East-West Highway Rehabilitation of regional road networks, secondary and local roads Municipal and Regional Infrastructure Regional Municipal and Urban Infrastructure Development Projects Water supply, sanitation and storm water projects Solid waste management projects Agriculture Rehabilitation of irrigation and drainage systems 10

11 Fiscal Framework and Public Debt Performance External Public Debt Situation Debt Indicators are at Comfortable level Total Public Debt to Nominal GDP (%) External Public Debt to Nominal GDP (%) 60% 41.0% 42.4% 44.4% 44.7% 41.4% 36.5% 40% 31.2% 34.8% 34.7% 35.6% 31.7% 33.6% 35.1% 35.3% 32.5% 28.8% 20% 27.6% 27.2% 26.8% 23.5% 0% Government External Debt Service As % of Budget Revenues As % of Budget Revenues (Excl. IMF) 15% 13% 11% 9.1% 8.7% 9% 7.1% 7.2% 7.6% 7.9% 6.1% 7% 5.2% 3.4% 4.4% 5% 4.3% 2.0% 4.3% 4.8% 5.2% 3% 3.0% 4.4% 3.8% 1% -1% Public Debt Ratios are Stable and Annual Repayment Volumes are Easily Affordable In 2015, public debt increased to 41.4% of GDP and external public debt to 32.5%. The growth of total public debt to GDP ratio was driven mostly by depreciation of Georgian Lari. According the preliminary data, in 2016 both public debt and external public debt have increased to 44.6% of GDP and 35.2% of GDP respectively. Based on the IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis the public debt ratio would remain sustainable under the most standard shocks. Average Weighted Interest Rate (AWIR) on External Public Debt is around 2%. The bulk of External Public Debt portfolio is owed to official multilateral and bilateral development partners, mainly on concessional terms 70% of the external public debt portfolio carries fixed interest rate. This keeps Georgia s external public debt service parameters to a large extent shielded from exogenous interest (base) rate fluctuations and ensures that external public debt service costs remain low and affordable despite global economic uncertainties. No refinancing risk exists in the foreseeable future External Public Debt Currency Composition as for June, 2017 EUR 19% USD 34% Other 5% SDR 42% 11

12 Apr-11 Jun-11 Aug-11 Oct-11 Dec-11 Feb-12 Apr-12 Jun-12 Aug-12 Oct-12 Dec-12 Feb-13 Apr-13 Jun-13 Aug-13 Oct-13 Dec-13 Feb-14 Apr-14 Jun-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 Dec-14 Feb-15 Apr-15 Jun-15 Aug-15 Oct-15 Dec-15 Feb-16 Apr-16 Jun-16 Aug-16 Oct-16 Dec-16 Feb-17 Apr-17 Jun-17 Apr-11 Jun-11 Aug-11 Oct-11 Dec-11 Feb-12 Apr-12 Jun-12 Aug-12 Oct-12 Dec-12 Feb-13 Apr-13 Jun-13 Aug-13 Oct-13 Dec-13 Feb-14 Apr-14 Jun-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 Dec-14 Feb-15 Apr-15 Jun-15 Aug-15 Oct-15 Dec-15 Feb-16 Apr-16 Jun-16 Aug-16 Oct-16 Dec-16 Feb-17 Apr-17 Jun-17 Fiscal Framework and Public Debt Performance External Public Debt Situation (As for June, 2017) Affordable Public Debt Stock and Very Low Interest Rate on External Public Debt External Public Debt by Interest Type: Interest Rate Risk Brought to a Minimum Domestic 20.5% External 79.5% Multilateral 58% Average Weighted Interest Rate of External Public Debt Portfolio : 2.04% Variable 35.5% Bilateral 13% Eurobond 8% Fixed 64.5% Georgian Sovereign Eurobond 2021 Price Yield Georgian Sovereign Eurobond 2021 Spread to UST

13 May-12 Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13 Nov-13 Feb-14 May-14 Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16 Nov-16 May-12 Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13 Nov-13 Feb-14 May-14 Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16 Nov-16 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Fiscal Framework and Public Debt Performance Eurobonds Issued by the State Owned Enterprises (As for December, 2016) Georgian Railway Eurobond 2022 Georgian Railway Eurobond Price Yield Spread to UST Georgian Oil and Gas Company Eurobond 2017 Georgian Oil and Gas Company Eurobond Price Yield Spread to UST

14 Fiscal Framework and Public Debt Performance Taxation is Simple, Low, Efficient and Fair Taxes No payroll tax or social insurance tax No capital gains tax VAT 18% No wealth tax, inheritance tax or stamp duty Income Tax 20% Foreign-source income of individuals fully exempted Corporate Income Tax 15% A new CIT model has launched since January 1, 2017, which means that reinvested profit will be free from taxes until distribution of dividends Dividend & Interest Income Tax 5% Very strong political commitment to low and simple taxation and improvement of services Significantly streamlined tax and customs administration geared towards provision of maximum comfort to businesses and investors Georgia has double taxation avoidance treaties with 54 countries 14

15 External Sector 15

16 External Sector Current Account funding structure 2017 Q1-Q c Goods and Current transfers exclude transactions regarding medicaments for c hepatitis 16

17 Million USD External Sector Balance of payments - in sustainable equilibrium Current Account Deficit (% of Nominal GDP) 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 9.7% 7.0% 11.1% 15.1% 19.8% 22.0% 10.5% 10.3% 12.8% 11.7% 5.8% 10.7% 12.0% 12.8% 11.7% 7.6% 2.9% 0.0% Q Q Q3 FDI Breakdown by Sectors 2017 Q1-Q3 Foreign Direct Investment Dynamics Hotels and Restaurants 5% Financial Sector 12% Other Sectors 13% Energy 7% Real Estate 9% Mining 3% Construction 18% Transports and Communications 33% FDI FDI as % of Nominal GDP 25.0% 19.8% 20.0% 15.3% % 10.9% 14.5% % 15.0% % % % 7.0% 5.8% 9.2% 11.2% 10.0% % 10.7% 5.0% % Note: spikes are due to large privatization 17

18 Million USD Million USD External Sector Current Account - steadily growing external revenues Rapidly Growing Contribution of the Tourism Sector, with significant untapped potential Foreign Visitors (thousand persons) Tourism Revenues, net as % of Trade Deficit 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, % 40.8% 40.8% 34.8% 27.4% 17.8% 21.2% 12.3% 7.2% 7.2% 6.3% 763 1,052 1,290 1,500 2,032 2,822 4,428 5,392 5,516 5,901 6,361 5, Q1-Q3 68.8% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Gross International Reserves Current transfers (net) 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, ,361 1,480 2,110 2,264 2,818 2,8732,823 2,699 2,521 2,756 3,039 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, ,329 1,408 1,466 1,423 1,060 1,098 1,066 1, Current transfers exclude transfers for medicaments for c hepatitis 18

19 Monetary and Banking Sector 19

20 Feb-11 Apr-11 Jun-11 Aug-11 Oct-11 Dec-11 Feb-12 Apr-12 Jun-12 Aug-12 Oct-12 Dec-12 Feb-13 Apr-13 Jun-13 Aug-13 Oct-13 Dec-13 Feb-14 Apr-14 Jun-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 Dec-14 Feb-15 Apr-15 Jun-15 Aug-15 Oct-15 Dec-15 Feb-16 Apr-16 Jun-16 Aug-16 Oct-16 Dec-16 Feb-17 Apr-17 Jun-17 Aug-17 Oct-17 Dec-17 Monetary and Banking Sector World Food Prices Average Inflation Rate Inflation Dynamics Annual Inflation Rate 16.0 Core (net of food and energy) Headline Core (net of food)

21 Monetary and Banking Sector Exchange rate flexibility a policy priority Shift to the inflation targeting mode has provided an enhanced exchange rate flexibility. Floating exchange rate has increased resilience of the economy. Central Bank participation at the market is limited. GEL Yield Curve relationship between interest rates and remaining maturity. Downward short-term yield creates the expectations of decreasing future interest rates Exchange Rate Evolution USD - GEL (Daily) 15% 13% 11% 9% 7% 5% Georgia: Yield Curve Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec % 13.8% 13.2% 11.5% 10.6% 9.9% 8.7% 8.9%9.5% 9.0% 7.4% 7.4% 7.3% 7.2% 7.1% 7.2% 8.2% 9.0% 4.0% 4.0%4.8% 4.9% 7.0% 6.0% 3% O/N 1 W 3 M 6 M 1 Y 2 Y 3Y 4Y 5Y 6Y 7Y 8Y 9Y 10Y 21

22 Monetary and Banking Sector Banks well-capitalized with low NPLs NPL by IMF Definition Banking system shows resilience with respect to general and bank specific shocks. Banks highly capitalized with average Basel I capital adequacy ratio of 23% (15% by local standards) and liquidity ratio of 40%; NPLs are around 4% (by IMF definition) as of November, 2017 ER depreciation had only a minor effect on NPLs Borrowings from IFIs represent large share of the banking sector s nondeposit funding Banking system privately owned since 1995; no restrictions on foreign ownership 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 10.0% 9.5% 9.0% 8.5% 8.0% 7.5% 7.0% 6.5% 6.0% NPL by NBG Definition 22

23 GEL billion 2008Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 Monetary and Banking Sector Sound Performance of the Banking Sector Traditionally High Capital Adequacy Ratio (NBG and Basel I Definition) 30% NBG Basel I 25% 25% 20% 15% High Profitability as Measured by ROE 20% 15% 10% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% Total Bank Deposits and Loans moving in tandem Sound Non-Deposit Funding Structure as of November Loans Deposits Domestic Borrowing 20% Borrowing from Non- Resident Parent Banks 6% Private External Sources 14% IFI 23% Equity 37% 23

24 Feb-10 May-10 Aug-10 Nov-10 Feb-11 May-11 Aug-11 Nov-11 Feb-12 May-12 Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13 Nov-13 Feb-14 May-14 Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16 Nov-16 Feb-17 May-17 Aug-17 Nov-17 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Monetary and Banking Sector Credit growth at a healthy rate Assets of the Banking Sector as % of GDP Commercial Bank Lending, GEL mln 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 30.7% 21.9% 79.2% 64.3% 70.7% 42.4% 46.5%46.1%50.9% 52.1% 54.9% 88.9% ,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, ,566 7,739 8,733 5,993 6,261 4,589 5,185 1,730 2,681 13,070 16,086 18, Banking Sector Liquidity Ratios Ample Liquidity Buffers Banking Sector Dollarization on the Downward Path 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Liquid Assets to Customer Deposits Liquid Assets to Total Assets 95% 90% 85% 80% 75% 70% 65% 60% 55% 50% Loan Dollarization Deposit Dollarization 64% 58% 24

25 International Rankings of Georgia 25

26 International Rankings of Georgia Sovereign Credit Ratings BB- Stable (Affirmed in November 2017) BB- Stable (Affirmed in September 2017) Ba2 Stable (Affirmed in September 2017) 26

27 International Rankings of Georgia Consistently outperforming sovereign peers Georgia - one of the most liberal labor environments, according to the Heritage Foundation, 2017 (score) USA Kazakhstan Czech Republic Georgia Azerbaijan UK Armenia Montenegro Serbia Romania Estonia Sweden Norway Ukraine Turkey World Bank Doing Business, 2018: Starting a Business Ukraine Serbia Turkey UK USA Czech Republic Azerbaijan Kazakhstan Armenia Sweden Russia Estonia Georgia Lithuania New Zeland World Bank Doing Business, 2018: Registering Property Crime Index, 2017 Mid-Year (ranking) Czech Republic Turkey Romania Ukraine USA Kazakhstan Serbia Russia Norway Azerbaijan Armenia UK Sweden Estonia Georgia

28 International Rankings of Georgia Improved positions WB Doing Business: Ease of Doing Business (ranking from 2006 to 2018) Transparency International: Corruption Perception Index (ranking from 2004 to 2016) Fraser Institute: Economic Freedom Index (ranking from 2004 to 2017) Heritage Foundation: Economic Freedom Index (ranking from 2004 to 2017)

29 International Rankings of Georgia Consistently outperforming sovereign peers Economic Freedom Trend (Economic Freedom Index, 2017) Economic Freedom Index, 2017 (Heritage Foundation) Ukraine Serbia Montenegro Azerbaijan Turkey Kazakhstan Romania Armenia Czech Republic Norway Sweden USA Georgia UK Estonia