Headline Verdana Bold Banking Supervision and Regulation International Standards: Basel II & III 4 th Banking and Business Forum Iran Europe in

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1 Headline Verdana Bold Banking Supervision and Regulation International Standards: Basel II & III 4 th Banking and Business Forum Iran Europe in Tehran on 29 April 2017 Asad A. Jafree, Deloitte Corporate Finance Limited

2 Post-sanctions Iran 'could be the best emerging market for years to come' About 10% of the world's total proven petroleum reserves, 4 th globally 77.5m population, 2 nd largest in MENA after Egypt Over 18% of the world's total proven gas reserves, making Iran #1 The world s 18 th largest economy The most energy-rich country in the world Lord Lamont, UK Trade Envoy to Iran 8.9% Inflation, after 3 decades of double digit 98% Highest literacy rate in the region (98% for 15 to 24 age group) 2016 Deloitte Corporate Finance Limited. All rights reserved. 4 th Banking and Business Forum Iran Europe in Tehran on 29 April

3 Post-sanctions Iran has many positives Could be the best emerging market for years to come (The Guardian, 6 July 2015) The region s most diverse economy The Telegraph, 12 July 2015 Highest projected growth rates across peers 5.2 Manufacture & Mining, 22.7% Agriculture, 8.9% Services, 51.7% Source: Bloomberg Oil, 16.7% Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/ Egypt Iran Saudi Arabia Turkey 78m population With important sanctions lifted, Iran has a new opportunity to deepen its integration into the global economy. That process has the potential over time to support faster growth and rising living standards for Iranians. David Lipton, IMF 2016 Deloitte Corporate Finance Limited. All rights reserved. 4 th Banking and Business Forum Iran Europe in Tehran on 29 April

4 But, there are a number of economic challenges to be addressed Addressing unemployment and moderate growth are high on the agenda 12.5% Unemployment 5.7% Unemployment rate (2016) 10.8% 12.5% 12.7% Iran achieved strong growth of 6.5% during the 2016 Iranian calendar year Source: IMF Saudi Turkey Iran Egypt 2016 Deloitte Corporate Finance Limited. All rights reserved. 4 th Banking and Business Forum Iran Europe in Tehran on 29 April

5 Macroeconomic stability Iran was one of a small number of countries that had experienced double digit inflation for three decades this has been progressively coming down 60 Inflation % Deloitte Corporate Finance Limited. All rights reserved. 4 th Banking and Business Forum Iran Europe in Tehran on 29 April

6 Macroeconomic stability After the devaluation of the IRR starting in 2012, the exchange rate is more stable Exchange rate Deloitte Corporate Finance Limited. All rights reserved. 4 th Banking and Business Forum Iran Europe in Tehran on 29 April

7 Strength of banking sector is critical for growth A weak banking sector will make financing productivity, stimulating growth and employment generation difficult Increase in losses for enterprises in real economy Reduced demand for goods and services Reduced employment in economy Increased inability of enterprises to service debt Reduced production of goods and services High level of NPL in banking sector Reduced cash flows for banks Reduced lending to real economy Increased provisions and write offs for banks Reduced capital adequacy Limits on ability of banks to continue lending 2016 Deloitte Corporate Finance Limited. All rights reserved. 4 th Banking and Business Forum Iran Europe in Tehran on 29 April

8 Most problematic factors for doing business for the Iranian private sector The chart below summarizes those factors seen by business executives as the most problematic for doing business in Iran. The information is drawn from the World Economic Forum s Executive Opinion Survey. From a list of 16 factors, respondents were asked to select the five most problematic and rank them from 1 (most problematic) to 5. The results were then tabulated and weighted according to the ranking assigned by respondents. The most problematic factor for doing business in Iran was identified as Access to finance. Access to financing Inflation Inefficient govt. bureaucracy Policy instability Corruption Poor infrastructure supply Foreign currency regulations Restrictive labor regulations Tax rates Poorly educated workforce Poor work ethic in labor force Lack of innovation capacity Tax regulations Crime and theft Govt. instability Poor public health Deloitte Corporate Finance Limited. All rights reserved. 4 th Banking and Business Forum Iran Europe in Tehran on 29 April

9 Key components of financial system stability GDP Growth Inflation Stable exchange rate Financial stability Robust payment system Healthy banking sector Strong independent central bank 2016 Deloitte Corporate Finance Limited. All rights reserved. 4 th Banking and Business Forum Iran Europe in Tehran on 29 April

10 A stable banking sector, the missing piece for Iran? Despite many positive dynamics, Iran has not been able to achieve the growth it desires partly due to its weak banking sector Large domestic market for goods and services Stable exchange rate Sanctions deal agreed & implemented Iran faces a unique set of issues related to the integration of its banks to the international financial system. David Lipton, IMF Single digit inflation after 3 decades World s largest gas reserves Large oil reserves 4 th globally Highly educated domestic labour force Increased oil production in line with presanctions levels The banking system needs to be able to effectively channel credit to the private sector. This will require addressing the high levels of nonperforming loans, bolstering capital, restructuring weak financial institutions, dealing with unlicensed financial institutions, and strengthening risk management systems and bank supervision. David Lipton, IMF 2016 Deloitte Corporate Finance Limited. All rights reserved. 4 th Banking and Business Forum Iran Europe in Tehran on 29 April

11 Issues affecting growth Challenges faced by Iran s Banking Sector The recent 2015 Article IV Consultation carried out by the International Monetary Fund has highlighted some of the main challenges that should be addressed by the national authorities, as part of their strategy to reform the financial system: 1 Reinforcement of Supervision Risk-based supervision; Legislation reforms for the financial sector; Governance and Risk Management; Supervisory data submissions. 4 Reform Banking Institutions Restructuring of Commercial Banks main components; Revision of the Governance and Risk Management procedures; Elimination of government-mandated credit policies. 2 Non-Performing Loans (NPLs) High level of NPLs on Iranian banks; Agreement on a strategy to restructure NPLs. 3 Provisioning and capital Review of the collateral and asset valuations for adjustment of provisions; Revisions of tax incentives and write-off limits; Enforcement of loan classification standards. 5 Government arrears and debt Banks balance sheets need more liquidity; Pilot in October 2015 issuance of about 60 billion Rials; Continued issuance of government securities at marketable terms. 6 AML/ Combatting the Financing of Terrorism (CFT) Implementation of a comprehensive anti-money laundering (AML)/ CFT law that properly criminalises terrorist financing; National risk assessment on matters of AML/ CFT; Risk-based AML/ CFT supervision Deloitte Corporate Finance Limited. All rights reserved. 4 th Banking and Business Forum Iran Europe in Tehran on 29 April

13 The way forward Asset quality reviews National bad bank Supervisory reviews Capacity building Financial & operational restructuring of banks International regulations Specialised banking courts IFRS and more reliable audits Corporate governance Licensing Securitisation of government debt Improved public financial management Stronger & more independent central bank AML/CFT/FATF Improved transparency Updated banking law 2016 Deloitte Corporate Finance Limited. All rights reserved. 4 th Banking and Business Forum Iran Europe in Tehran on 29 April

15 Contact Asad Jafree Principal Director, Financial Advisory Deloitte Middle East 2016 Deloitte Corporate Finance Limited. All rights reserved. 4 th Banking and Business Forum Iran Europe in Tehran on 29 April

16 About Deloitte Deloitte refers to one or more of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited, a UK private company limited by guarantee, and its network of member firms, each of which is a legally separate and independent entity. Please see for a detailed description of the legal structure of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited and its member firms. Deloitte provides audit, consulting, financial advisory, risk management, tax and related services to public and private clients spanning multiple industries. Deloitte serves four out of five Fortune Global 500 companies through a globally connected network of member firms in more than 150 countries bringing world-class capabilities, insights, and high-quality service to address clients most complex business challenges. To learn more about how Deloitte s approximately 225,000 professionals make an impact that matters, please connect with us on Facebook, LinkedIn, or Twitter. Any reference to In the Middle East since 1926 applies specifically to the Middle East member firm of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited. About Deloitte Corporate Finance Limited Deloitte Corporate Finance Limited is a company limited by shares, registered in Dubai International Financial Centre with registered number CL 0748 and is authorized and regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority. Deloitte Corporate Finance Limited is an affiliate of the UK and Middle East member firms of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited. The firm s principal place of business and registered office is at Al Fattan Currency House, Building 1, Dubai International Financial Centre, Dubai, United Arab Emirates. Tel: +971 (0) Fax: +971 (0) This document has been written in general terms and therefore cannot be relied on to cover specific situations; application of the principles set out will depend upon the particular circumstances involved and we recommend that you obtain professional advice before acting or refraining from acting on any of the contents of this publication. Deloitte Corporate Finance Limited would be pleased to advise readers on how to apply the principles set out in this publication to their specific circumstances. Deloitte Corporate Finance Limited accepts no duty of care or liability for any loss occasioned to any person acting or refraining from action as a result of any material in this publication Deloitte Corporate Finance Limited. All rights reserved.

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