Impact of Reforms on Electrification of the Poor in Africa

Transcription

1 AFREPREN/FWD Impact of Reforms on Electrification of the Poor in Africa Stephen Karekezi, Lugard Majoro and John Kimani AFREPREN African Energy Policy Research Network Based on research undertaken for the Global Network on Energy for Sustainable Development (GNESD)

2 Status? Major Problem Although reforms have delivered technical & financial benefits to the region s electricity industry After 15 years of reforms, top 20% have electricity

3 Access to Electricity Top 20% 5th Quintile - The Richest Population 99% 100% 99% 100% 99% 100% 99% 100% 95% 91% 90% 80% 70% 60% 75% 71% 61% 57% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Cameroon Cote d'ivore Ethiopia Ghana Kenya Namibia Nigeria Senegal South Africa Tanzania Uganda Zambia Zimbabwe Source: Estache, 2005

4 Status? Major Problem But bottom 40% have no access to electricity in SSA 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 0% 5% 1st Quintile - Poorest Population 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 6% 0% 0% 0% 0% Cameroon Cote d'ivore Ethiopia Ghana Kenya Namibia Nigeria Senegal South Africa Tanzania Uganda Zambia Zimbabwe 2 nd Quintile - 2 nd Poorest Population 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 8% 35% 0% 0% 0% 2% 15% 1% 33% 0% 0% 0% 0% Cameroon Cote d'ivore Ethiopia Ghana Kenya Namibia Nigeria Senegal South Africa Tanzania Uganda Zambia Zimbabwe

5 Status? Major Problem Bottom 40% is target of Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) central mission of development community Trouble with MDGs = trouble with PRSPs (Poverty Reduction Strategy Papers) Trouble with PRSPs = less $ from Treasury & development partners

6 Trend? Chronic Problem Only region where absolute number of non-electrified is increasing In some countries, population growth is outpacing electrification rate Country Population (million) Coverage (%) Years to 100% Tanzania 34 8% 4 Uganda % 1,275 Malawi % 183 Kenya % 42

7 Have Reforms Been Beneficial? Empirical assessments of the impact of the power sector reforms on the poor Reform reference - enactment of new Electricity Act Pre- and post-reform assessment Reliance on empirical data (by income groups) Access Electrification levels physical access Electrification rates pace of electrification Electricity consumption Affordability Electricity tariffs Electricity expenditure

8 Global Study on Impact of Reforms on Poor s Access to Electricity Africa: Energy Research Centre (South Africa) Environment and Development in the Third World (Senegal) African Energy Policy Research Network (Kenya) Involved other Centres in Middle East, Asia and Latin America American University in Beirut (Lebanon) Asia Institute of Technology (Thailand) The Energy Research Institute (India) Energy Research Institute (China) Bariloche Foundation (Argentina) The University of the South Pacific (Fiji) Federal University of Rio de Janeiro & University of Sao Paolo (Brazil)

9 Data, Data & Data Limited income-differentiated electrification trend data Indication of past limited policy interest Had to analyze primary utility customer records to generate data In some countries, used rural electrification as proxy for electrification of poor Country Pace of Electrifying the Poor Pre-reforms Post-reforms Kenya Senegal

10 Cost of Electrifying the Poor Before new Government in ,000 Average Cost per Connection - Kenya Rural Electrification Act amended in Dec Av. Cost per Connection (Kshs.) 300, , , , ,000 50, Years

11 Findings of Africa Case Studies Privatization reforms have had neutral or adverse impacts on the poor Reforms need an explicit pro-poor dimension otherwise electrification of the poor is forgotten

12 Ring-fencing (protecting) Funds for Electrification of Poor Kenya (Before New Government) Proportion of REF Grid extension Operational losses

13 Sequencing of Reforms Reform/privatize utility & then electrify the poor Reforming/privatizing utility took forever, electrification of poor either forgotten or at tail end of reforms - lost at least a decade

14 Sequencing of Reforms Solution Different Businesses Ring-fence & un-bundle services to the poor & pursue parallel tracks

15 Low-Cost Options SWER-`Single Wire Earth Return Ready boards Sharing of poles Limited loads More cost-effective designs that reduce number of transformers

16 Participation Lack of participation - historical characteristic of power sector even before reforms Decisions made by relatively small group of experts Everybody agrees that participation of the poor is good but how do you do it? Representation: Boards of utilities, regulatory/rural electrification agencies Electrification committees that have paid substantial deposits (up to KShs 3 million in parts of Kenya) Local SMEs/Informal sector

17 Country Relative Size of SMEs No. of Permanent Employees Largest Smallest Average Largest Project Size (US$) Uganda 82* ,000 Tanzania Zambia Kenya ,000 Zimbawe ,000

18 Why SMEs & Informal Sector? AFREPREN study in Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, Zimbabwe and Zambia SME/Informal sector accounts for big chunk of economy - vibrant and growing Over 90% of private business = SMEs SMEs in Africa account for 50% of GDP SMEs provide over 50% of employment Already serves the poor as well as involved in power sector sub-contracts Has required skills, experience, network & local credibility (often run by previous utility employees)

19 Why SMEs & Informal Sector? Creates jobs Lowers cost (SME electrification project in Kenya lowered costs by 2/3) Establishes local stake-holder group backing reforms Otherwise anti-reforms lobby presents itself as defender of national interests and reverses reforms!

20 Summary - To the Reach the Poor Mission Orientation Explicit focus on the poor Sequence the reforms bring forward pro-poor interventions Ring-fence funds for electrification of the poor Deploy low cost options Expand space for participation of poor Involve SMEs and informal sector Craft stronger policy arguments for more $ from donors and treasury (health and education sectors way ahead of us & taking most of $)