4,800 jobs added in December; unemployment rate drops tenth of a percent

Transcription

1 Office of Research Sharon M. Palmer, Commissioner FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE December 2014 Data CT Unemployment Rate = 6.4% US Unemployment Rate = 5.6% 4,800 jobs added in December; unemployment rate drops tenth of a percent WETHERSFIELD, January 26, 2015 The preliminary nonfarm jobs estimate from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics s (BLS) monthly business survey indicate Connecticut added 4,800 positions (0.28%) in December seasonally adjusted. Connecticut s level of nonfarm employment has now increased 26,700 jobs (1.61%) since December 2013 to an estimated level of 1,690,200, another new employment recovery high. The nonfarm employment increase for November (2,900, 0.17%) was revised lower by 1,700 jobs from the original release. Connecticut s unemployment rate decreased one-tenth of a percentage point in December 2014 to 6.4%, seasonally adjusted, according to results based from the recent residential household survey (Current Population Survey). This is lower by a full percentage point from the December 2013 unemployment rate of 7.4%. The number of unemployed in the state has declined by 15,007 over the year to 121,406. The monthly labor force estimates for the state continued to expand briskly in December (7,381, 0.4%) and has now increased by 60,254 (3.3%, considered statistically significant) labor force entrants over the year. Connecticut finishes 2014 on an encouraging note with more than 80% of nonfarm jobs recovered from the Great Recession - almost 94% for the private sector, said Andy Condon, Director of the Office of Research. Employment gains were widespread across most industries and regions, although wages are slower to recover. We look forward to the annual benchmark revision in March to see if this level of growth holds up when more complete data becomes available. Nonfarm Jobs (business establishment survey) Initial nonfarm employment estimates show Connecticut added 4,800 (0.28%) jobs in December 2014 (seasonally adjusted). Six of the ten major industry supersectors added jobs last month. This is the fourth monthly nonfarm employment gain in a row since an August decline (-1,200) and is the tenth monthly job gain in Year-to-date job gains in 2014 now total 26,700 (1.61%, 2,225 per month) compared to last year s 18,400 (about 1,533 per month). These gains are subject to change based on the pending annual benchmark revisions in March. (See Labor Notes at end of report). The state s private sector gained 3,900 (0.27%) nonfarm jobs in December 2014 and is now higher by a healthy 25,700 positions (1.80%) since last December The government supersector (900, 0.38% OTM) was also positive in December and has now added some positions (1,000, 0.42%) over the year. The six major industry supersectors that increased jobs from the business survey in December were led by leisure and hospitality (2,100, 1.4%). Strong gains are coming from the accommodation and food services (1,500, 1.2%) portion of this supersector. A surprisingly solid gain from the manufacturing supersector (1,200, 0.7%) was also apparent with durable goods manufacturers (1,300, 1.0%) the major contributor. Education and health services (1,200, 0.4%) posted a strong monthly gain, driven by the health services (1,300, 0.5%) component. The government (900, 0.4%) supersector also was a job gainer last month with federal, state, and local government entities all contributing. The information supersector (400, 1.3%) and the other services (400, 0.6%) supersector added a similar number of jobs in December. The job losses in the four declining supersectors in December showed losses of less than 1,000 and were led lower by the combined construction and mining (-600, -1.0%) supersector. The trade, transportation & utilities (TTU) (-500, -0.2%) supersector was also down in December 2014 with wholesale trade (-500, -0.8%) and transportation and utilities (-1,100, -2.0%) lower, while the retail trade portion still added positions (1,100, 0.6%). Smaller job losses came from the professional, scientific, and technical (-200, -0.1%) supersector and the financial activities supersector (-100, -0.1%). The financial activities supersector (-2,400, -1.8%) is now the only

2 2 industry supersector to have lost jobs over the year. TTU remains the best growing supersector over the year (7,700, 2.6%) driven by retail trade (6,500, 3.5%). CT s Ten Industry Supersector Performance YTD December 2014, before revisions: Nine up, one down. 1.) Trade, Transportation, and Utilities (7,700, 2.6%) 6.) Government (1,000, 0.4%) 2.) Leisure and Hospitality (6,400, 4.2%) 7.) Construction and Mining (800, 1.4%) 3.) Education and Health Services (5,600, 1.7%) 8.) Other Services (700, 1.1%) 4.) Professional and Business Services (4,800, 2.3%) 9.) Information (200, 0.6%) 5.) Manufacturing (1,900, 1.2%) 10.) Financial Activities (-2,400, -1.8%) Annual Average CT Nonfarm Employment (based on 12 months of not seasonally adjusted data, prebenchmark) ,669,700 (15,000, 0.91%), ,654,700 (14,300, 0.87%), ,640,400 (15,300, 0.94%), ,625,100 (17,100, 1.06%), ,608,000 (-18,600, -1.14%), ,626,600 (-72,400, -4.26%) Recession recovery: Connecticut has now recovered 96,300 positions, or 80.9% of the 119,100 seasonally adjusted total nonfarm jobs that were lost in the state during the March February 2010 employment recession (pre-benchmark). Connecticut s jobs recovery is now 58 months old and is averaging approximately 1,660 jobs per month since February The private sector has recovered employment at a faster pace and has now recovered 105,200 (93.9%) of the 112,000 private sector jobs that were lost during the same recessionary downturn (about a 1,814 per month pace). At 1,690,200 overall nonfarm jobs for December 2014, the state needs to reach the 1,713,000 level to start a nonfarm employment expansion. This will require an additional 22,800 nonfarm jobs. A total of just 6,800 additional private sector positions are needed to have a fully-recovered private sector. The government supersector (Indian casino jobs on reservation are measured in local government) has continued to lose net jobs (-8,900) throughout the overall nonfarm employment recovery. Labor Market Areas (LMAs): The December 2014 preliminary nonfarm job numbers show that four of the six major Connecticut Labor Market Areas (Bureau of Labor Statistics-recognized LMAs) experienced job gains while two labor markets were unchanged (Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk LMA and Norwich-New London). The LMA (2,200, 0.4%) posted the largest regional job market gain while smaller gains were seen in New Haven (800, 0.3%), Danbury (500, 0.7%), and Waterbury (300, 0.5%). All Connecticut BLS-recognized LMAs are now positive over the year. Note: The major Connecticut LMAs are estimated and seasonally adjusted independently from the statewide numbers by the BLS and cover about 90% of the nonfarm employment in the state; they will not fully sum to the statewide total. (Please see Labor Notes at the end of this report for geographic/town changes coming next year for Connecticut s federally and non-federally recognized labor markets LMAs/NECTA s). Hours and Earnings: The private sector workweek, not seasonally adjusted, averaged 33.8 hours in December 2014, and is higher by two-tenths of an hour (0.6%) from the year-ago estimate of 33.6 hours. Average hourly earnings at $28.42, not seasonally adjusted, were up 39 cents, or 1.4%, from last December The resulting average private sector weekly pay was calculated at $960.60, up $18.79, or 2.0% over the year. All employee private sector wage estimates have been outpacing inflation the last three months and may be another sign of an improving labor market. The year-to-year change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U, U.S. City Average, not seasonally adjusted) in December 2014 was 0.8%. Information for the manufacturing production workweek and earnings can be found in the table section of this release under the Hours and Earnings data category. Current all-employee private sector hours and earnings estimates can be volatile due to fluctuating sample responses.

3 3 Labor Force Data (residential household survey) Connecticut s unemployment rate was calculated at 6.4% for December 2014 (seasonally adjusted). This is one tenth of a percentage point lower than the November 2014 rate of 6.5%, and down a full percentage point from the December 2013 unemployment rate of 7.4%. Unemployment: Based on the household survey, the number of unemployed, seasonally adjusted, posted a decrease of 1,110 (-0.9%) over the month to 121,406 in December The number of unemployed residents has decreased by 15,007 (-11.0%) since December Connecticut s drop in the unemployment rate last month occurred with another large labor force increase (7,381, 0.4%), signifying more residents are entering the labor market searching for work. December 2013 to December 2014 labor force growth now tallies 60,254 (3.3%, considered statistically significant). Connecticut s civilian labor force has grown 10 of 12 months in 2014 after bottoming in December 2013 at 1,845,784. The United States unemployment rate was 5.6% in December, down two-tenths of a percentage point from the November 2014 rate of 5.8%, and lower by one and one-tenth of a percentage point from the December 2013 rate of 6.7%. As always, the sample size underlying labor force and unemployment data is very small and caution is advised in interpreting these preliminary estimated trends. The December 2014 average weekly initial unemployment claims for first-time Connecticut filers (seasonally adjusted) decreased slightly over the month by 17 claims (-0.4%) to 4,568, and are lower by 486 claims (-9.6%) from December 2013 (5,054). The nonfarm employment estimate, derived from a survey of businesses, is a measure of jobs in the state; the unemployment rate, based on a household survey, is a measure of the work status of people who live in Connecticut. Overall, as the national and state economies recover, volatility in monthly numbers can be expected. Additionally, changes in methodology that culminated in March 2011 with the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics assuming complete responsibility for estimating all states monthly nonfarm job counts, have contributed to the monthto-month variability in the numbers. Jobs estimates are best understood in the context of their movement over several months rather than observed changes in a single month s estimate. Next Connecticut Labor Situation release: Monday, March 16, 2015 (January 2015 data - see Labor Notes at end of report) Contact: Communications Office (860) Labor market information is available on the Internet at Folly Brook Boulevard, Wethersfield, CT An Equal Opportunity/Affirmative Action Employer

4 NONFARM EMPLOYMENT Jobs - by Place of Work CONNECTICUT AND THE UNITED STATES - Seasonally Adjusted December November October September December Over Month Over Year 2014 P 2014 R Change Rate Change Rate CONNECTICUT 1,690,200 1,685,400 1,682,500 1,678,200 1,663,500 4, % 26, % Total Private 1,453,600 1,449,700 1,446,700 1,441,100 1,427,900 3, % 25, % Goods Producing Industries Mining % 0 0.0% Construction 56,200 56,800 57,200 57,300 55, % % Manufacturing 164, , , , ,300 1, % 1, % Durable Goods 126, , , , ,200 1, % % Nondurable Goods 38,200 38,300 38,300 38,200 37, % 1, % Service Providing Industries Trade, Transportation & Utilities 309, , , , , % 7, % Wholesale 64,500 65,000 65,100 66,100 63, % 1, % Retail 192, , , , ,500 1, % 6, % Transp, Warehousing & Utilities 53,100 54,200 54,400 54,100 53,100-1, % 0 0.0% Information 31,500 31,100 31,500 31,600 31, % % Financial Activities 129, , , , , % -2, % Finance & Insurance 110, , , , , % -2, % Real Estate, Rental & Leasing 19,000 19,000 18,900 19,000 19, % % Professional & Business Services 210, , , , , % 4, % Prof, Scientific & Tech Services 93,500 92,600 92,000 91,800 90, % 2, % Management of Companies 29,000 29,100 29,000 28,900 29, % % Admn & Support & Waste Mgt Serv 87,800 88,800 86,800 86,100 85,400-1, % 2, % Educational & Health Services 331, , , , ,300 1, % 5, % Educational Services 64,400 64,500 65,200 63,800 63, % % Health Care & Social Assistance 267, , , , ,600 1, % 4, % Leisure and Hospitality 157, , , , ,600 2, % 6, % Arts, Entertainment & Recreation 27,500 26,900 25,900 25,500 25, % 2, % Accommodation & Food Services 129, , , , ,100 1, % 4, % Other Services 62,400 62,000 62,600 62,500 61, % % Government** 236, , , , , % 1, % UNITED STATES 140,347, ,095, ,742, ,481, ,395, , % 2,952, % LABOR MARKET AREAS (LMA) Labor Market Area employment estimates are made independently of Statewide estimates. December November October September December Over Month Over Year Seasonally Adjusted data 2014 P 2014 R Change Rate Change Rate Bridgeport-Stamford 422, , , , , % 7, % Danbury 71,000 70,500 70,300 70,000 69, % 1, % 558, , , , ,000 2, % 6, % New Haven 279, , , , , % 3, % Norwich-New London 128, , , , , % 1, % Waterbury 66,200 65,900 65,200 64,700 65, % % Not Seasonally Adjusted data (Non-Classified Areas, State estimated not BLS) Enfield 45,000 45,000 44,800 44,700 44, % % Torrington 37,100 37,000 37,200 37,100 36, % % Willimantic-Danielson 38,100 38,100 38,400 38,100 37, % % * Less than 0.05% ** Includes Native American tribal government employment P = Preliminary R = Revised Starting with March, 2011, our monthly statewide and major LMA nonfarm job estimates have been taken over by the US Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics. This is the final phase of transition in this program, which began in As a result of changes in the estimation procedures, you are likely to see more variability in month-to-month estimates of job counts. Caution should be used in interpreting any single month s estimate. The data are best interpreted to identify trends and cycles over several months and quarters. If you have any questions about these changes, please us at: dol.lmi@ct.gov. Connecticut Labor Situation December 2014

5 Percent Unemployed UNEMPLOYMENT Persons Unemployed - by Place of Residence CONNECTICUT AND THE UNITED STATES - Seasonally Adjusted Dec P Dec Change Nov R Number Rate Number Rate Number Points Number Rate CONNECTICUT Unemployed 121, , , , Labor Force 1,906,000 1,845,800 60,200 1,898,700 UNITED STATES Unemployed 8,688, ,376, ,688, ,071, Labor Force 156,129, ,047,000 1,082, ,402, U.S. AND CONNECTICUT UNEMPLOYMENT RATES - Seasonally Adjusted US CT J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D Dec P Dec Change Nov R Number Rate Number Rate Number Points Number Rate Bridgeport-Stamford 25, , , , Danbury 4, , , Enfield 2, , , , , , , New Haven 18, , , , Norwich-New London 8, , , , Torrington 2, , , Waterbury 7, , , , Willimantic-Danielson 3, , , CONNECTICUT 107, , , , UNITED STATES 8,331, ,984, ,653, ,630, P = Preliminary R = Revised LABOR MARKET AREAS - Not Seasonally Adjusted Labor force data included in this publication are developed in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Connecticut Labor Situation December 2014

6 UNEMPLOYMENT RATES Not Seasonally Adjusted LABOR MARKET AREAS North Canaan Colebrook Hartland Salisbury Suffield Somers Stafford Union Norfolk Enfield Granby Canaan Enfield Woodstock Thompson Barkhamsted East Winchester 5.3% Ellington GranbyWindsor Putnam Sharon Locks East Ashford Windsor Willington Eastford Simsbury Windsor Tolland Pomfret Canton Cornwall Goshen Torrington New Bloomfield Vernon Willimantic-Danielson South Killingly 6.6% Torrington Windsor Avon Coventry MansfieldChaplin 5.4% Hampton Brooklyn Manchester West Harwinton Burlington Bolton Warren Litchfield East Kent Farmington Andover 5.8% Windham Wethersfield Canterbury Plainfield Sterling Morris Glastonbury Columbia Bristol Newington Scotland Washington Thomaston Plainville Plymouth New Hebron Rocky Bethlehem Britain Hill Marlborough Lebanon Sprague Watertown Berlin New WolcottSouthington Cromwell Franklin Lisbon Sherman Griswold Milford Portland Voluntown Woodbury Waterbury Colchester Norwich-New London Roxbury Waterbury Middletown East Bozrah Norwich Danbury 7.6% Meriden 6.1% Middlebury Cheshire Hampton 4.3% Bridgewater Middlefield Preston Prospect New Naugatuck Salem Fairfield Brookfield Southbury Haddam East Montville Wallingford Durham North Haddam Ledyard Stonington Oxford Beacon Falls New Haven Danbury Bethany Newtown Chester Hamden 5.8% Lyme Waterford Seymour Stonington Bethel North Killingworth Woodbridge East Groton Haven North Deep Essex Monroe Ansonia Branford Madison River Lyme New Derby Guilford London Redding Shelton Old Ridgefield New East Clinton WestbrookSaybrook Easton West Lyme Orange Haven Haven Old Bridgeport-Stamford Branford 5.3% Trumbull Haven Weston Milford December 2014 Wilton Stratford Bridgeport Fairfield New Westport StamfordCanaan Norwalk Connecticut: 5.7% U.S.: 5.4% Greenwich Darien Not HOURS AND EARNINGS CONNECTICUT Statewide - Not Seasonally Adjusted Average Weekly Earnings Average Weekly Hours Average Hourly Earnings Dec. Dec. Change Nov. Dec. Dec. Change Nov. Dec. Dec. Change Nov P 2013 over Yr R 2014 P 2013 over Yr R 2014 P 2013 over Yr R Private Industry All Employees $ $ $18.79 $ $28.42 $28.03 $0.39 $28.67 Manufacturing* Production Workers $ $ $70.59 $ $24.02 $21.59 $2.43 $23.74 * Production worker data have been impacted by the loss of a large, high-paying manufacturer from the monthly sample. P = Preliminary R = Revised Hours and earnings are also developed for the state's major industry sectors and Labor Market Areas. They can be found on our website at: Connecticut Labor Situation December 2014

7 Percent Thousands T R E N D S Seasonally Adjusted Nonfarm Total Unemployment Employment (000s) Rate 2013 Jan 1, Feb 1, Mar 1, Apr 1, May 1, Jun 1, July 1, Aug 1, Sep 1, Oct 1, Nov 1, Dec 1, , , , , , , , , , ,610.0 Nonfarm Employment SA 3-Months MA Jan Mar May July Sep Nov Jan Mar May July Sep Nov Jan 1, Feb 1, Mar 1, Apr 1, May 1, Jun 1, July 1, Aug 1, Sep 1, Oct 1, Nov 1,685.4 R 6.5 R Dec 1,690.2 P 6.4 P Total Unemployment Rate Jan Mar May July Sep Nov Jan Mar May July Sep Nov Avg Weekly Avg Manufacturing Initial Claims Weekly Hours* 2013 Jan 4, Feb 4, Mar 4, Apr 4, May 4, Jun 4, July 5, Aug 4, Sep 4, Oct 4, Nov 4, Dec 5, Jan 4, Feb 3, Mar 4, Apr 4, May 4, Jun 4, July 4, Aug 4, Sep 4, Oct 4, Nov 4, R Dec 4, P Average Weekly Initial Claims 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Jan Mar May July Sep Nov Jan Mar May July Sep Nov Average Manufacturing Weekly Hours Jan Mar May July Sep Nov Jan Mar May July Sep Nov * Not seasonally adjusted P = Preliminary R = Revised ** Labor-management dispute Connecticut Labor Situation December 2014

8 NOTES ON LABOR DATA Benchmark revisions The next issue of the Connecticut Labor Situation, to be released on Monday, March 16, 2015, will contain January 2015 nonfarm employment, hours and earnings, and labor force data (including the unemployment rate) that have been revised as part of an annual benchmarking process that follows methods and procedures established in conjunction with the U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) also known as benchmark revisions. The February 2015 Connecticut labor data will then be released on Thursday, March 26, 2015 and will put the monthly data releases back on the regular monthly schedule for the rest of the year. Updated Metropolitan Statistical Areas - MSAs (NECTAs in the New England states) This next issue of the Connecticut Labor Situation will also include the publication of regional labor market data based on the newly defined metropolitan statistical areas. Each mid-decade the U.S. Office of Management and Budget (OMB) updates statistical area definitions (geographical composition) or labor market areas based on population and commuter patterns from the most recent decennial Census (2010). These newly delineated federal statistical areas or metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) will be utilized going forward and will have reconstructed monthly employment data made comparable back to New England states call these MSAs, NECTAs for New England City and Town Areas because of the heightened importance of the city and town civil jurisdictions as opposed to counties used extensively elsewhere in the nation. The same criteria used in delineating NECTAs are used for MSAs, except that cities and towns in New England are utilized as building blocks instead of counties used by the rest of the nation. The changes to Connecticut s nine Labor Market Areas (LMAs) or NECTAs are less far reaching this time around as compared to the last area redefinition in Connecticut will still have the same six federally recognized statistical areas (NECTAs) as before, but some town changes around the population core will be based on new commuter patterns. These newly defined federal statistical areas (NECTAs) still make up over 90% of the employment in the state and are comprised of the major employment centers across Connecticut. To complete the full geography of Connecticut with comparable labor statistics, the Connecticut Labor Department will continue to estimate and publish labor data for the other three (non-federal) labor market areas, including all cities and towns in the new Torrington-Northwest Labor Market Area (formerly just the Torrington LMA), the new Danielson-Northeast Labor Market Area (formerly the Willimantic-Danielson LMA), and the unchanged Enfield Labor Market Area (which is still Connecticut s part of the Springfield, MA-CT NECTA). Changes in the town composition of the six newly federally recognized NECTAs include the movement of Newtown to the Danbury, CT NECTA from the Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, CT NECTA. There is also the addition of three towns (Chaplin, Scotland, and Windham formerly of the old Willimantic-Danielson LMA) to the -West -East, CT NECTA, while Middlefield, formerly in the NECTA, moves to the New Haven, CT NECTA. The Waterbury, CT NECTA adds two towns, Bethlehem and Woodbury (formerly of the old Torrington LMA). Additionally, the now named Norwich-New London-Westerly, CT-RI NECTA, a cross-state NECTA, gains one town in Rhode Island, Hopkinton. As the state s population centers have grown in economic importance, the smaller state labor markets (the new Danielson-Northeast LMA, and the new Torrington-Northwest LMA, the Enfield Labor Market Area remains unchanged) have lost towns because of stronger commuter patterns into larger major employment centers. Revised Nonfarm Employment Data Each year, nonfarm employment, hours and earnings estimates, produced on a monthly basis from sample data, are anchored to universe employment counts reported by employers for purposes of the unemployment insurance (UI) program. Since these reports are received from most employers, the revised numbers provide a better picture of employment levels than the samples could provide at the time of the original estimates. The data in this upcoming issue will have been officially benchmarked to the March 2014 UI universe data. Part of the benchmarking process is to examine the difference between the original estimates and the newlycreated series. The preliminary comparison at this point, made on numbers before seasonal adjustment (final benchmark revisions will be released in March), shows that the benchmarked count of roughly 1,637,300 jobs Connecticut Labor Situation Data release for January 2015

9 NOTES ON LABOR DATA was about 0.2 percent lower (-2,300 to -2,500, not seasonally adjusted) than the original March 2014 estimate of 1,639,600 (rounding will influence the final level). Final overall annual average employment for 2014, and every month from April 2013 through December 2014, will be adjusted and revised from more complete worksite reports as well as sample responses received from employers. Other minor adjustments can go back as far as Seasonal adjustment factors are then re-calculated each year and applied to the newly adjusted and updated historical time series. Labor Force Revisions Beginning with January 2015 data, Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) will also reflect the new nine NECTAs as described earlier. There will be some major additional changes to the labor force estimates. The fourth generation LAUS models will be implemented into production. Moreover, several methodological changes will be implemented per the 2015 LAUS Program Redesign, and many estimation inputs that had come from Census 2000 will be replaced with inputs from the American Community Survey (ACS) 5-year estimates. These changes will further improve the monthly and annual estimating processes while better reflecting the changing trends in the labor force in Connecticut. To receive copies of revised nonfarm employment, manufacturing hours and earnings, and labor force data, when issued please visit our Web site at: Connecticut Labor Situation Data release for January 2015