Oil Market Fundamentals Haven t Been This Strong in Years
|
|
- Veronica Mathews
- 6 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 Oil Market Fundamentals Haven t Been This Strong in Years January 4, 2018 by Bryce Coward of Knowledge Leaders Capital 2018 has so far brought in the highest price of crude oil since late 2014 (chart 1), but we shouldn t be surprised by the price action. Indeed, ignoring geopolitics for a moment, the fundamental picture for the crude markets haven t been this favorable in years. As we will see, from inventory levels, to the US dollar, to economic growth, to the setup in the futures markets, most signs are pointing to higher oil prices ahead. Page 1, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
2 One of the main drivers of oil prices is the relationship between production, consumption and inventory levels. As chart 2 shows, crude production in the US has recovered to mid-2016 highs, which in and of itself would be bearish for crude prices. But, the total inventory of crude has been falling over that period and now stands at the lowest level in 2.5 years. Chart three depicts total crude inventories (ex the strategic petroleum reserve) plotted with the blue line on the left, inverted axis, overlaid on the price of oil on the right axis (red line). Furthermore, oil consumption has remained strong too. The combination of lower stocks and growing demand has caused the days supply of oil to drop from 34 a year ago to just 25 now. Chart four shows the price of crude on the left axis (blue line) overlaid on the days supply of oil on the right, inverted axis (red line). These two series are highly inversely correlated, so a contracting days supply should result in higher prices. As we will see later, a continuation of this trend is likely. Page 2, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
3 Page 3, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
4 This next chart shows the price of crude oil (blue line, left axis) overlaid on the US dollar spot index (red line, right axis, inverted). The -82% correlation between these two series isn t a surprise given that oil is priced in US dollars. A falling dollar should result in higher prices of global commodities priced in dollars, all else equal. And a falling dollar is just what we expect in 2018 as a result of central bank policy convergence, the continued overvaluation of the US dollar relative to other major currencies, and expanding budget deficits in the US. Page 4, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
5 Another tailwind is stronger economic growth here in the US and abroad, which will have the effect of raising demand for crude products. The next chart shows the ISM manufacturing new orders index (red line, right axis), a gauge of future manufacturing expectations, overlaid on the price of oil (blue line, left axis). The breakout of the ISM new orders index to a level not seen since 2004 is a strong indication that oil demand will remain robust or even accelerate in the quarters ahead. Page 5, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
6 Finally, the commodity futures curve for crude oil has dramatically changed in recent months and has altered the incentives of players in the futures markets. The chart below shows the current WTI futures curve (orange line) and the futures curve from six months ago (green line). The current curve is downward sloping, meaning futures prices in out years are lower than the current spot price. In this state of backwardation, holders of futures contracts expect the futures price to move upward to converge with the spot price at the contract s expiration, which makes holding futures contracts, as opposed to crude oil inventory, profitable. Conversely, six months ago the WTI futures curve was in a state of contango, meaning that out years futures prices were higher than spot prices. When a futures Page 6, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
7 curve is in a state of contango, it s profitable for investors to hold inventory of the underlying and sell it forward in the futures market at a higher price. In other words, six months ago it paid for investors to hold physical stockpiles of crude oil. Today, investors are better off selling their physical stockpiles and buying cheaper futures contracts. The result should be further pressure on crude oil inventories, which as we saw earlier would be bullish crude prices in general. Knowledge Leaders Capital Page 7, 2018 Advisor Perspectives, Inc. All rights reserved.
The Rally in Energy Isn t a Fluke
The Rally in Energy Isn t a Fluke September 29, 2017 by Bryce Coward of Knowledge Leaders Capital Since the middle of August the S&P 500 energy sector is up 11.5% compared to just 3% for the index as a
More informationThe USD Selling Off and Econ Surprises at Rock Bottom is a Recipe for Foreign/Cyclical Outperformanc
The USD Selling Off and Econ Surprises at Rock Bottom is a Recipe for Foreign/Cyclical Outperformanc June 29, 2017 by Bryce Coward of Knowledge Leaders Capital The US dollar is having another tough go
More information6 Reasons and 21 Charts Arguing for Continued Foreign Stock Outperformance
6 Reasons and 21 Charts Arguing for Continued Foreign Stock Outperformance July 28, 2017 by Bryce Coward of Knowledge Leaders Capital As our regular readers are aware, we ve been pounding the table all
More informationOn the Long Bond and Why the Widow Maker is Alive and Well
On the Long Bond and Why the Widow Maker is Alive and Well February 27, 2015 by Team of Knowledge Leaders Capital Perhaps one of the most important questions investors need to answer today is whether we've
More informationFour Market-Based Indicators That May Help Investors Identify Stock Market Fragility
Four Market-Based Indicators That May Help Investors Identify Stock Market Fragility February 1, 2018 by Bryce Coward of Knowledge Leaders Capital With a hint of volatility returning to the stock market
More informationIMPA Commodities Course: Introduction
IMPA Commodities Course: Introduction Sebastian Jaimungal sebastian.jaimungal@utoronto.ca Department of Statistics and Mathematical Finance Program, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada http://www.utstat.utoronto.ca/sjaimung
More informationCapturing Alpha Opportunities with the Nasdaq Commodity Crude Oil Index
Capturing Alpha Opportunities with the Nasdaq Commodity Crude Oil Index RICHARD LIN, CFA, NASDAQ GLOBAL INFORMATION SERVICES Executive Summary A volatile crude market has created many exciting trading
More informationForecasting Commodity Returns
Strategic thinking Forecasting Commodity Returns A Look at the Drivers of Long-Term Performance Commodities as an asset class have performed extremely well in the recent past, outpacing the returns of
More informationTechnical analysis & Charting The Foundation of technical analysis is the Chart.
Technical analysis & Charting The Foundation of technical analysis is the Chart. Charts Mainly there are 2 types of charts 1. Line Chart 2. Candlestick Chart Line charts A chart shown below is the Line
More informationophillips Curve Multiple Choice Identify the choice that best completes the statement or answers the question.
ophillips Curve Multiple Choice Identify the choice that best completes the statement or answers the question. 1. If the natural rate of unemployment is 5%, and the actual rate of unemployment is 4%: A.
More informationLeading Economic Indicators and a Probabilistic Approach to Estimating Market Tail Risk
Leading Economic Indicators and a Probabilistic Approach to Estimating Market Tail Risk Sonu Vanrghese, Ph.D. Director of Research Angshuman Gooptu Senior Economist The shifting trends observed in leading
More informationdownload instant at
Exam Name MULTIPLE CHOICE. Choose the one alternative that best completes the statement or answers the question. 1) The aggregate supply curve 1) A) shows what each producer is willing and able to produce
More informationWhat Does a Humped Yield Curve Mean for Future Stock Market Returns
What Does a Humped Yield Curve Mean for Future Stock Market Returns February 11, 2019 by Bryce Coward of Knowledge Leaders Capital As many commentators have pointed out, the yield curve has developed a
More informationMarket Observations as of Aug 25, 2017
Market Observations as of Aug 25, 2017 By Carl Jorgensen - For Objective Traders - For educational purposes only. Not Financial Advice. We saw a confirmation of bearish behaviors last week, and not much
More informationManaged Futures Beyond Trend Following
Managed Futures Beyond Trend Following SOLUTIONS & MULTI-ASSET MANAGED FUTURES INVESTMENT INSIGHT 2018 Throughout its more than 30-year history, the managed futures industry has been primarily associated
More informationMonthly Economic Indicators And Charts
Monthly Economic Indicators And Charts June Richard F. Moody- Chief Economist Steve Pfitzer Investor Relations Information contained herein is based on data obtained from recognized sources believed to
More informationBitcoin Futures a trading review of Q Thejas Naval, Director of Portfolio, The Element Group
Bitcoin Futures a trading review of Q1 2018 Thejas Naval, Director of Portfolio, The Element Group Introduction to bitcoin futures We would like to start off by explaining some of the terms used in this
More informationOxford Energy Comment March 2009
Oxford Energy Comment March 2009 Reinforcing Feedbacks, Time Spreads and Oil Prices By Bassam Fattouh 1 1. Introduction One of the very interesting features in the recent behaviour of crude oil prices
More informationCapital Market Review & Outlook
Capital Market Review & Outlook June, 2015 Visit us online jicinvest.com Offices 2714 N. Knoxville Peoria, Illinois 61604 tel: 309.674.3330 tf: 877.848.3330 fax: 888.31514 Executive Summary Asset Class
More informationCHAPTER 5 THE COST OF MONEY (INTEREST RATES)
CHAPTER 5 THE COST OF MONEY (INTEREST RATES) 1 Learning Outcomes LO.1 Describe the cost of money and factors that affect the cost of money. LO.2 Describe how interest rates are determined. LO.3 Describe
More informationDiversifying growth is beneficial
Craig Holke Investment Strategy Analyst WEEKLY GUIDANCE ON ECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS December 4, 2018 Resilient U.S. Economy Continues Its Solid Growth Key takeaways» The U.S. economy continues
More informationCalmer Markets Suggest Crude Price Consensus Speculators burned by lower volatility.
? Calmer Markets Suggest Crude Price Consensus Speculators burned by lower volatility. Morningstar Commodities Research 14 August 217 Sandy Fielden Director, Oil and Products Research +1 512 431-844 sandy.fielden@morningstar.com
More informationHow to perform accurate market analysis
How to perform accurate market Roman Sadowski Good market combines the fundamental and the technical. This combination is essential to form a longer-term bias in the market. Good market needs to consider
More informationInternational Equities are En Vogue, and Could Stay That Way
International Equities are En Vogue, and Could Stay That Way November 9, 2017 by Bryce Coward of Knowledge Leaders Capital Over the last decade US stocks have outperformed the global equity benchmark by
More informationThe Oil Market s Mixed Price Signals
May The Oil ket s Mixed Price Signals OXFORD ENERGY COMMENT Bassam Fattouh Jan 02, Jan 09, Jan 16, Jan 23, Jan 30, 06, 13, 20, 27, 06, 13, 20, 27, 03, 10, 17, 24, May 01, May 08, Recent movements in oil
More informationOil: An Ongoing Story of Supply and Demand
Oil: An Ongoing Story of Supply and Demand The new normal of oil prices The crude oil market has experienced a sea change since 214. Oil prices dropped sharply from above $1 in early 214, bottomed at $26
More informationFund Managers Get Bullish
Fund Managers Get Bullish November 15, 2017 by Urban Carmel of The Fat Pitch Summary: Global equities have risen 18% so far in 2017 and yet, until this month, fund managers have held significant amounts
More informationCommodities & Commodity Derivatives
Commodities & Commodity Derivatives Commodities: definitions and characteristics Commodities are typically broken down into number of categories: Energy products: crude oil, gas oil, natural gas Precious
More informationThe Dollar's Ripple Effect
The Dollar's Ripple Effect March 25, 2015 by Burt White of LPL Financial In technical analysis, intermarket analysis looks at the way in which various markets interact. Intermarket analysis primarily looks
More informationKevin Lester, Director of Risk Management and Treasury Services, and Alexander Haigh, Financial Risk Management Consultant, Validus Risk Management.
Risk Management An Integrated Approach Kevin Lester, Director of Risk Management and Treasury Services, and Alexander Haigh, Financial Risk Management Consultant, Validus Risk Management. Nothing focuses
More informationTechnical indicators
Technical indicators Trend indicators Momentum indicators Indicators based on volume Indicators measuring volatility Ichimoku indicator Divergences When the price movement and the indicator s movement
More informationMonthly Economic Indicators And Charts
Monthly Economic Indicators And Charts December 17 Richard F. Moody- Chief Economist Steve Pfitzer Investor Relations Information contained herein is based on data obtained from recognized sources believed
More informationWCU: Crude at four-month high, but bad week for metals
WCU: Crude at four-month high, but bad week for metals By Ole Hansen The rally in crude oil and related products continues, and during the week it helped offset losses in industrial and precious metals,
More informationQuarterly Energy Comment
Quarterly Energy Comment By Bill O Grady March 24, 216 The Market Oil prices have fallen steadily over the past year, reaching a new low early in the first quarter just below $3 per barrel. Since mid-february,
More informationOverview Douglas E. White, CFA Rand Folta, CFA Fixed Income Nomi Caperton David Strimaitis Equity John Bridges William Kleinfeld
AUG. 2016 GLOBAL ECONOMICS & CAPITAL MARKET COMMENTARY GLOBAL ECONOMICS Douglas E. White, CFA Chief Investment Officer Executive Vice President (617) 896-3518 dwhite@e-winslow.com Rand Folta, CFA Executive
More informationCurrent Account and Federal Budget Balances
Preparing for an Inverted Yield Curve Sam Park June 25 sam@rwwentworth.com Who s in Control? Should we stay calm or panic? And should we believe Mr. Greenspan when he says that the yield curve no longer
More informationSkewness Strategies in Commodity Futures Markets
Skewness Strategies in Commodity Futures Markets Adrian Fernandez-Perez, Auckland University of Technology Bart Frijns, Auckland University of Technology Ana-Maria Fuertes, Cass Business School Joëlle
More informationINTERMEDIATE EDUCATION GUIDE
INTERMEDIATE EDUCATION GUIDE CONTENTS Key Chart Patterns That Every Trader Needs To Know Continution Patterns Reversal Patterns Statistical Indicators Support And Resistance Fibonacci Retracement Moving
More information5. Bulgarian National Bank Forecast of Key
5. Bulgarian National Bank Forecast of Key Macroeconomic Indicators for 2016 2018 The BNB forecast of key macroeconomic indicators is based on the information published as of 17 June 2016. ECB, EC and
More informationDisposable income (in billions)
Section 4 version 2 Multiple Choice Identify the choice that best completes the statement or answers the question. 1. An increase in the MPC: A. increases the multiplier. B. shifts the autonomous investment
More informationNew Developments in Oil Futures Markets
CEEPR Workshop Cambridge, MA December 2006 New Developments in Oil Futures Markets John E. Parsons Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research Front Month, NYMEX-WTI, 1986-2006 $80 $70 $60 $50
More informationProprietary Research. Monthly Insights. December 2018
Proprietary Research Monthly Insights December 2018 Monthly Commentary As the year draws to a close and we look back at 2018, it has turned into a very good year for the U.S. economy. Not only did overall
More informationRecession Risk Remains Low
Recession Risk Remains Low September 10, 2018 by Urban Carmel of The Fat Pitch Summary: The macro data from the past month continues to mostly point to positive growth. On balance, the evidence suggests
More informationArchimedean Upper Conservatory Economics, October 2016
Multiple Choice Identify the choice that best completes the statement or answers the question. 1. The marginal propensity to consume is equal to: A. the proportion of consumer spending as a function of
More informationGauging Current Conditions: The Economic Outlook and Its Impact on Workers Compensation
Gauging Current Conditions: The Economic Outlook and Its Impact on Workers Compensation The exhibits below are updated quarterly to reflect the current economic outlook for factors that typically impact
More informationWeekly Market Summary
Weekly Market Summary April 24, 2016 by Urban Carmel of The Fat Pitch Summary: SPY made a new all-time high this week. The short and long term trend is higher. Despite a gain of 16% over the past 10 weeks,
More informationUBS Bloomberg CMCI. a b. A new perspective on commodity investments.
a b Structured investment products for investors in Switzerland and Liechtenstein. For marketing purposes only. UBS Bloomberg CMCI A new perspective on commodity investments. UBS Bloomberg CMCI Index Universe
More informationCurve Ball - Is the Yield Curve Still a Dependable Signal?
Curve Ball - Is the Yield Curve Still a Dependable Signal? November 2, 2015 by Michael Lebowitz Advisor Perspectives welcomes guest contributions. The views presented here do not necessarily represent
More informationBetter Sales And Profit Growth Are Behind Good 1Q17 Results, Not Financial Engineering
Better Sales And Profit Growth Are Behind Good 1Q17 Results, Not Financial Engineering May 5, 2017 by Urban Carmel of The Fat Pitch Summary: S&P profits are up 22% yoy. Sales are 7.2% higher. By some measures,
More informationBacktesting Performance with a Simple Trading Strategy using Market Orders
Backtesting Performance with a Simple Trading Strategy using Market Orders Yuanda Chen Dec, 2016 Abstract In this article we show the backtesting result using LOB data for INTC and MSFT traded on NASDAQ
More informationMacroeconomics Final Exam Practice Problems: Indifference Curves. Indifference curves are used in both the microeconomics and macroeconomics courses.
Macroeconomics Final Exam Practice Problems: Indifference Curves (The attached PDF file has better formatting.) Indifference curves are used in both the microeconomics and macroeconomics courses.! The
More informationThe Yield Curve and Recession Forecasting
The Yield Curve and Recession Forecasting For years economists and fund managers have used an inverted yield curve as a predictor of a coming recession. In 1996, the New York Fed published a paper touting
More informationA microeconomic view of oil price levels and volatility
1 A microeconomic view of oil price levels and volatility Severin Borenstein E.T. Grether Professor of Business and Public Policy, Haas School of Business, UC Berkeley and Co-Director, Energy Institute
More informationCOMMODITY WEEKLY REPORT
COMMODITY REPORT 5 FEB-9 Feb 2018 Monday - Friday Trade House 426 Alok Nagar, Kanadia Main Road Near Bangali Square Indore-452001 (M.P.) India Mobile :+91-9039261444 E-mail: info@tradenivesh.in COMMODITIES
More informationUSCF Dynamic Commodity Insight Monthly Insight September 2018
Key Takeaways The US Commodity Index Fund (USCI) and the USCF SummerHaven Dynamic Commodity Strategy No K-1 Fund (SDCI) gained 1.94% and 1.84%, respectively, last month as September was the best month
More informationAugust 2014 GLOBAL ECONOMICS & CAPITAL MARKET COMMENTARY GLOBAL ECONOMICS INSTITUTIONAL TRADING SETTLEMENT AND TRADING WINSLOW, EVANS & CROCKER
August 2014 GLOBAL ECONOMICS & CAPITAL MARKET COMMENTARY GLOBAL ECONOMICS Douglas E. White, CFA Chief Investment Officer Executive Vice President (617) 896-3518 dwhite@e-winslow.com Rand Folta, CFA Executive
More informationWhat are the New Methods of Investing Passively in Commodities?
What are the New Methods of Investing Passively in Commodities? Joëlle Miffre Professor of Finance, EDHEC Business School Member of EDHEC-Risk Institute What are the New Methods of Investing Passively
More informationTO HEDGE OR NOT TO HEDGE?
INVESTING IN FOREIGN BONDS: TO HEDGE OR NOT TO HEDGE? APRIL 2017 The asset manager for a changing world Investing in foreign bonds: To hedge or not to hedge? I April 2017 I 3 I SUMMARY Many European institutional
More informationKING S UNIVERSITY COLLEGE. Economics 1022B (570 & 574) Review Questions for Chapter 27
KING S UNIVERSITY COLLEGE Economics 1022B (570 & 574) G. Copplestone Review Questions for Chapter 27 Multiple Choice Questions: 1) If the marginal propensity to consume is 0.85, what change in consumption
More informationTHE AD (AGGREGATE DEMAND) / AS (AGGREGATE SUPPLY) MACRO MODEL
THE AD (AGGREGATE DEMAND) / AS (AGGREGATE SUPPLY) MACRO MODEL Again, we visit the supply and demand framework. However, when applied to Macroeconomics, we use the following terms in setting up our graph:
More informationBaseline U.S. Economic Outlook, Summary Table*
July 218 Gus Faucher Stuart Hoffman William Adams Kurt Rankin Chief Economist Senior Economic Advisor Senior Economist Economist Executive Summary Economy Continues to Expand in Mid-218, But Trade Remains
More informationEcon 100B: Macroeconomic Analysis Fall 2008
Econ 100B: Macroeconomic Analysis Fall 2008 Problem Set #7 ANSWERS (Due September 24-25, 2008) A. Small Open Economy Saving-Investment Model: 1. Clearly and accurately draw and label a diagram of the Small
More informationSolid Sales Growth and Margins At New Highs Drive 3Q17 Results
Solid Sales Growth and Margins At New Highs Drive 3Q17 Results November 14, 2017 by Urban Carmel of The Fat Pitch Summary: For the third quarter (3Q17), S&P earnings rose 12% yoy, sales grew 6% and profit
More informationMarket Mastery Protégé Program Method 1 Part 1
Method 1 Part 1 Slide 2: Welcome back to the Market Mastery Protégé Program. This is Method 1. Slide 3: Method 1: understand how to trade Method 1 including identifying set up conditions, when to enter
More informationabcdefg Introductory remarks by Jean-Pierre Roth News Conference
abcdefg News Conference Zurich, 14 December 2006 Introductory remarks by As stated in our press release, the Swiss National Bank is raising its target range for the three-month Libor with immediate effect
More informationGUIDE TO STOCK trading tools
P age 1 GUIDE TO STOCK trading tools VI. TECHNICAL INDICATORS AND OSCILLATORS I. Introduction to Indicators and Oscillators Technical indicators, to start, are data points derived from a specific formula.
More informationPlease read the following risk disclosure before you proceed.
Please read the following risk disclosure before you proceed. The risk of loss in trading commodity futures contracts can be substantial. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is
More informationProfit Margins Expand to New Highs to Boost 2Q17 Results
Profit Margins Expand to New Highs to Boost 2Q17 Results August 7, 2017 by Urban Carmel of The Fat Pitch Summary: The headline numbers for 2Q17 financial reports are good: S&P profits are up 19% yoy; sales
More informationModest Economic Growth and Falling GDP Gap
Modest Economic Growth and Falling GDP Gap -. -. U.S. Economic Output (Real GDP - Quarterly Growth Rate).................................... : : : : : : : : : : -. -. -. -. -. -. -. -. -. -. -. -. -. -.
More informationFOURTH QUARTER EARNINGS SEASON
LPL RESEARCH WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY KEY TAKEAWAYS We expect a solid fourth quarter earnings season and believe a 14 16% year-over-year increase in S&P 5 earnings is achievable. Economic surprises, strong
More informationDRW Investment Research. Market Performances and Indicators
DRW Investment Research Market Performances and Indicators 31 December 2016 1. FTSE JSE Indices Performances ALSI ALSI TRI SWIX TRI 1-year -1.0% 1.6% 2.1% 2-year 0.4% 3.4% 2.9% 3-year 2.8% 5.8% 6.9% 4-year
More informationShyam Devani
Market Commentary July 11, 2013 Tom Fitzpatrick 1-212-723-1344 thomas.fitzpatrick@citi.com Shyam Devani 44-207-986-3453 shyam.devani@citi.com Dan Tobon 1-212-723-1576 daniel.tobon@citi.com For recent commentary
More informationMartin Pring s. Weekly InfoMovie Report. December 27, Happy New Year to Our Wonderful Subcriber Family! May 2013 be Prosperous and Productive!
Martin Pring s Weekly InfoMovie Report December 27, 2012 Issue 1028 Happy New Year to Our Wonderful Subcriber Family! May 2013 be Prosperous and Productive! The Pring Family ~ 2012 Weekly InfoMovie Report
More informationAnalysis and Trading with Bill Williams Indicators (Bill Williams Indicators) Bill M. Williams, a leader in the self-education of investors first
Analysis and Trading with Bill Williams Indicators (Bill Williams Indicators) Bill M. Williams, a leader in the self-education of investors first began trading in 1959. His background in engineering,physics,
More informationIs Crude Oil Really A Currency-Driven Commodity?
Is Crude Oil Really A Currency-Driven Commodity? One of the stranger aspects of sharp crude oil price movements, both higher and lower, is how someone will link the declines to a stronger dollar and the
More informationQuantitative & Strategy
Cam Hui, CFA January 30, 2018 cam@pennock@ideahub.com THE PAIN TRADE SIGNALS FROM THE BOND MARKET Highlights As the 10-year Treasury yield staged an upside breakout at 2.6%, and luminary investors such
More informationU.S. ECONOMIC UPDATE. MACRO February 5, 2014
U.S. ECONOMIC UPDATE MACRO February 5, 2014 LEGAL DISCLAIMER Hedgeye Risk Management is a registered investment advisor, registered with the State of Connecticut. Hedgeye Risk Management is not a broker
More informationby David Rodriguez and Ilya Spivak, Senior Strategists for DailyFX.com &
by David Rodriguez and Ilya Spivak, Senior Strategists for DailyFX.com drodriguez@dailyfx.com & https://www.twitter.com/drodriguezfx ispivak@dailyfx.com & https://www.twitter.com/ilyaspivak How to use
More informationa. What is your interpretation of the slope of the consumption function?
Economics 102 Spring 2017 Homework #5 Due May 4, 2017 Directions: The homework will be collected in a box before the lecture. Please place your name, TA name and section number on top of the homework (legibly).
More informationA Traders guide to Commodity Investing by Gnanasekar Thiagarajan, Director, Commtrendz Research 30 th March 2018.
A Traders guide to Commodity Investing by Gnanasekar Thiagarajan, Director, Commtrendz Research 30 th March 2018. 1 Commodities Outlook Who should invest? Any investor who wants to take advantage of price
More informationEWF YEARLY FORECAST 2/7/2017
WWW.ELLIOTTWAVE-FORECAST.COM EWF YEARLY FORECAST 2/7/2017 SPX should remain bullish against February 2016 low Cycle from 2.2016 low in SPX is mature but the Index still has scope to extend higher towards
More informationMisdiagnosing The Risk Of Margin Debt
Misdiagnosing The Risk Of Margin Debt December 3, 2018 by Lance Roberts of Real Investment Advice This past week, Mark Hulbert wrote an article discussing the recent drop in margin debt. To wit: Plunging
More informationThe answer lies in the role of the exchange rate, which is determined in the foreign exchange market.
In yesterday s lesson we saw that the market for loanable funds shows us how financial capital flows into or out of a nation s financial account. Goods and services also flow, but this flow is tracked
More informationFund Managers Remain Overweight Cash and Underweight US Equities
Fund Managers Remain Overweight Cash and Underweight US Equities June 14, 2017 by Urban Carmel of The Fat Pitch Summary: Global equities have risen 5% in the past 3 months and nearly 20% in the past year,
More informationRisk Insight. Does a flattening yield curve signal pain for the dollar? What are the chances... Volume 9, Issue 10 6 th March 2017.
Inside this issue Big Picture... 1-2 GBPUSD... 3 GBPEUR... 4 Risk Insight Volume 9, Issue 10 6 th March 2017 EURUSD... 5 USDCAD... 6 Economic Data and Market Indicators... 7 Appendix... 8 Does a flattening
More informationRecession Risk Remains Low
Recession Risk Remains Low November 5, 2018 by Urban Carmel of The Fat Pitch Summary: The macro data from the past month continues to mostly point to positive growth. On balance, the evidence suggests
More informationSimple Notes on the ISLM Model (The Mundell-Fleming Model)
Simple Notes on the ISLM Model (The Mundell-Fleming Model) This is a model that describes the dynamics of economies in the short run. It has million of critiques, and rightfully so. However, even though
More information1 8 S e p t e m b e r V o l u m e 8 3 1
FUNDS ON FRIDAY b y G l a c i e r R e s e a r c h 1 8 S e p t e m b e r 2 0 1 5 V o l u m e 8 3 1 We are very aware of the fact that stock market corrections are often triggered by news flow either positive
More informationa) Calculate the value of government savings (Sg). Is the government running a budget deficit or a budget surplus? Show how you got your answer.
Economics 102 Spring 2018 Answers to Homework #5 Due 5/3/2018 Directions: The homework will be collected in a box before the lecture. Please place your name, TA name and section number on top of the homework
More informationDRW Investment Research. Market Performances and Indicators
DRW Investment Research Market Performances and Indicators April 2015 1-year 2-year 3-year 4-year 5-year 6-year 7-year 8-year 9-year 10-year 11-year 12-year 13-year Annualised return 1. FTSE JSE Indices
More informationGundlach s Forecast for 2016
Gundlach s Forecast for 2016 January 19, 2016 by Robert Huebscher Jeffrey Gundlach is a prescient and accurate forecaster. Last week, as he does each January, he offered his market outlook. But unlike
More informationThe Bull Market: Six Years Old And Not Over
The Bull Market: Six Years Old And Not Over April 22-24, 2015 FOR PROFESSIONAL USE ONLY. FURTHER DISTRIBUTION OF THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS PROHIBITED WITHOUT PRIOR PERMISSION. Disclosures This
More information10.2 TMA SLOPE INDICATOR 1.4
10.2 TMA SLOPE INDICATOR 1.4 Unfortunately, you cannot use TMA or any of its derivatives before some poster is going to yell, REPAINT, REPAINT, REPAINT It is like if you can say those words and you will
More informationGOLD WTI CRUDE. Friday 10th February 2017
GOLD Friday 10th February 2017 Gold closed the day with losses after spending the day near the threemonth high posed on Wednesday, weighed by renewed dollar's demand in the US afternoon. Spot closed the
More informationAugust Macro Update: Slowing Growth in Employment and Consumption
August Macro Update: Slowing Growth in Employment and Consumption August 5, 2017 by Urban Carmel of The Fat Pitch The bond market agrees with the macro data. The yield curve has 'inverted' (10 year yields
More informationSEM Q1 15 Outlook. Safe Harbor
Safe Harbor These materials are neither an offer to sell nor a solicitation of an offer to buy Shares in any offer by or thru Spicewood Energy Management, LLC (SEM), as such offering and/or solicitation
More informationGLOBAL ECONOMICS FOCUS
GLOBAL ECONOMICS FOCUS Commodity investors are being misled by historic returns 4 th Sept. 6 The historical returns on commodity futures appear attractive. However, in this Focus we look at the factors
More informationGus Faucher Stuart Hoffman William Adams Kurt Rankin Chief Economist Senior Economic Advisor Senior Economist Economist.
January 218 Gus Faucher Stuart Hoffman William Adams Kurt Rankin Chief Economist Senior Economic Advisor Senior Economist Economist Executive Summary Another Fed Rate Hike in December, Inflation Remains
More informationRecession Risk Low, But Starting To Rise
Recession Risk Low, But Starting To Rise December 10, 2018 by Urban Carmel of The Fat Pitch Summary: The macro economic story is starting to change. The data from the past month continues to mostly point
More informationAn empirical investigation of optimal crude oil Futures rolling. Chrilly Donninger Chief Scientist, Sibyl-Project Sibyl-Working-Paper, July 2015
An empirical investigation of optimal crude oil Futures rolling. Chrilly Donninger Chief Scientist, Sibyl-Project Sibyl-Working-Paper, July 2015 Cleaned a lot of plates in memphis Pumped a lot of tane
More information