Proprietary Research. Monthly Insights. December 2018

Transcription

1 Proprietary Research Monthly Insights December 2018

2 Monthly Commentary As the year draws to a close and we look back at 2018, it has turned into a very good year for the U.S. economy. Not only did overall GDP growth accelerate, but many of the segments that were worrisome at the beginning of the year proved resilient in the face of adversity. In many respects, 2018 was the Goldilocks economy we had hoped for, stronger growth with low inflation. However, this has not translated into strong investment returns year-to-date. Markets around the globe have struggled. Certainly, they have not performed as one would expect with a robust economy. Markets deviating from economic reality is not a groundbreaking phenomenon; it happens at times. Economic reality diverges from investment returns over short periods of time. Each time is different, but this time the reasons center around expectations of slower growth moving forward. Although the U.S. is still expected to grow, the rate of growth next year may be less. Two percent growth isn t as good as three percent growth. In economic terms, this delta is called the second derivative of a dataset, and it has important ramifications throughout the investment world. Capital market assumptions include expectations for future growth. If future growth is lower, naturally the value of investments should be lower as well. Strong economic growth also doesn t mean everything is perfectly rosy. As I wrote last month, two of our Economic Dashboard indicators were on the verge of turning yellow. With December s update, one indicator has turned yellow, the S&P 500 & 20-Month Moving Average. The good news is this is the only market-based indicator on the Dashboard and without signs from any of the other economic-based indicators, it may only be a minor glitch. It could easily turn back to green next month. However, it is worth taking notice and focusing our attention. Markets are volatile at times, but they can also be forward-looking. Even without signs of economic distress, markets are telling us something that isn t showing up in the data yet. It tells us that even though confidence is at high absolute levels, it may be declining. Not so coincidentally, the other indicator on the verge of turning yellow is the Year-Over-Year Change in Consumer Confidence. Taken together this means there may be a potential hit to confidence on the horizon that could lead to further market declines. However, unless the decline in confidence leads to absolute declines in economic data, the volatility may only be temporary. U.S. interest rates are also on our radar. The first U.S. yield curve inversion occurred this past month. The interest rate on a 3-year treasury bond moved higher than the rate on a 5-year bond. While this is not one of the significant interest rate spreads used as a recession indicator, it is the first of many inversions we may experience over the coming years. Each one will carry more weight and will better signify a slowdown in the economy. Most importantly, as a research article by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis recently stated, inverted yield curves don t cause recessions, but they do signify a deceleration of growth, that when combined with a negative external shock can send the economy into a recession. We don t know what the shock will be this time around, but when conditions of slower economic growth grow more widespread, we have to take notice and prepare. Our first yellow indicator deserves attention, but it does not have much significance on its own. As a reminder, green signifies a positive indicator, yellow signifies some weakness in the data, and red signifies extreme caution over the current readings. While yellow doesn t feel good, it does not rise to a high level of concern. In fact, throughout any bull market and economic expansion we expect to see many yellows. Even a single red would not lead us to take action. The Allegiant Investment Research team is looking for three red indicators before making significant changes (i.e. a significant reduction in risk). Historically, three red indicators has been a really good predictor of an impending recession. It is at that point that we would reevaluate every portfolio and, in many instances, dial back the risk, as long as that is also the prudent investment decision for the individual objective. (Side note: this is not meant to pick the absolute top of the market. Instead, it is designed to sidestep some of the severe declines associated with recession-based bear markets, which are usually the most severe.) As investors we accept the volatility of confidence-based market declines, but we try to limit (not eliminate) the severity of losses during recession-based declines. For now though, the data does not lead us to make any major changes. The best advice is to stay the course until the data changes. Benjamin W. Jones, CFP, AIF CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER Chief Investment Officer, Principal

3 Job Openings ISM Service Leading Index Consumer Confidence Y-o-Y Change 10-Year/3-Month Treasury Spread S&P 500 & 20-Month Moving Average Positive Indicator Warning Indicator December 2018 Negative Indicator

4 Table of Contents Economy 6) U-3 & U-6 Unemployment 7) Labor Force Participation Rate 8) Long-Term & Short-Term Unemployment 9) Nonfarm Payrolls 10) Job Openings 11) Employment Statistics 12) Global GDP 13) U.S. Trade Statistics 14) U.S. Manufacturing PMI 15) Foreign Manufacturing PMI 16) U.S. Services PMI 17) Foreign Services PMI 18) Economic Activity 19) Housing Supply & Demand 20) Housing Prices 21) Household Finances 22) Consumer Default Rates 23) Consumer Spending & Saving 24) Consumer Confidence 25) Consumer Confidence Y-o-Y 26) Federal Government Finances 27) Yield Curve Spread Equities 29) Corporate Profits 30) S&P 500 & 20-month Moving Average 31) S&P 500 Earnings Yield & Baa Bond Yield 32) Corporate Finances 33) Global Earnings 34) Domestic Valuations 35) Foreign Valuations 36) Sector Valuations 37) Sector Valuations 38) Sector Valuations 39) Sector Valuations Fixed Income 41) Consumer Prices 42) Producer Prices 43) M2 Money Supply & Velocity 44) Global Central Bank Policy 45) 10-Year Treasury Yield 46) Global 10-Year Yields 47) I/G Corporate Bond Spreads 48) High Yield Spread 49) Muni/Treasury Ratio 50) State and Local Debt 51) Emerging Market Bond Spread 52) Mortgage Delinquency Rates Commodities 54) Energy 55) Industrial & Precious Metals 56) Agriculture 57) Foreign Exchange

5 Economy

6 U-6 & U-3 Unemployment Economy 6

7 U-3 Unemployment & Participation Rate Economy 7

8 Long-Term & Short-Term Unemployment Economy 8

9 Nonfarm Payrolls Economy 9

10 Job Openings Economy 10

11 Employment Statistics Wage Growth Employment Cost Index Average Weekly Hours Worked Total U.S. Productivity Economy 11

12 Global GDP Growth Economy 12

13 U.S. Trade Statistics U.S. Current Account Import/Export Growth Y-o-Y Import Prices ex-petroleum Import/Export Prices Economy 13

14 U.S. Manufacturing PMI Economy 14

15 Foreign Manufacturing PMI Euro Zone China Japan UK Economy 15

16 U.S. Services PMI Economy 16

17 Foreign Services PMI Euro Zone China Japan UK Economy 17

18 Economic Activity Light Vehicle Sales Durable Goods Orders Industrial Production Capacity Utilization Economy 18

19 Housing Supply & Demand Housing Starts & NAHB Index Existing Home Inventories Housing Supply in Months Homeownership Rate Economy 19

20 Housing Prices Homebuyer Affordability Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index Economy 20

21 Household Finances Household Debt Service Ratio Household Net Worth Household Debt Y-o-Y Growth Household Net Worth Y-o-Y Growth Economy 21

22 Consumer Default Rates Economy 22

23 Consumer Spending & Saving Retail Sales Savings Rate Personal Income & Spending Energy Expenditures a % of PCE Economy 23

24 Consumer Confidence Economy 24

25 Consumer Confidence Y-o-Y Change Economy 25

26 Federal Government Finances Federal Budget Surplus/Deficit Federal Debt Average Maturity Total Public Debt to GDP Economy 26

27 10-year/3-month Treasury Spread Economy 27

28 Equities

29 U.S. Corporate Profits Equities 29

30 S&P 500 & 20-Month Moving Average Equities 30

31 S&P 500 Earnings Yield & Baa Bond Yield Equities 31

32 S&P 500 Debt/Equity Corporate Finances S&P 500 Operating Margin S&P 500 Current Assets/Total Assets S&P 500 Dividend Payout Ratio Equities 32

33 Global Earnings Equities 33

34 Domestic Valuations Equities 34

35 Foreign Valuations Equities 35

36 Sector Valuations Health Care Consumer Staples Utilities Equities 36

37 Sector Valuations Consumer Discretionary Technology Financials Equities 37

38 Sector Valuations Energy Materials Industrials Equities 38

39 Sector Valuations MLP REIT Equities 39

40 Fixed Income

41 Consumer Prices Fixed Income 41

42 Producer Prices Fixed Income 42

43 M2 Money Supply & Velocity Fixed Income 43

44 Global Central Bank Policy Fed Funds Rate European Reference Rate Bank of England Rate Japan Overnight Rate Fixed Income 44

45 10-year Treasury Yield Fixed Income 45

46 Global 10-year Government Bond Yields Fixed Income 46

47 Investment Grade Corporate Bond Spreads Fixed Income 47

48 High Yield Bond Spread Fixed Income 48

49 10-year AAA Muni/Treasury Ratio Fixed Income 49

50 State & Local Debt Y-o-Y Growth Fixed Income 50

51 Emerging Markets Bond Yield Spread Fixed Income 51

52 Mortgage Delinquency Rates Fixed Income 52

53 Commodities

54 WTI Crude Oil Energy Natural Gas Heating Oil Coal Commodities 54

55 Industrial & Precious Metals Gold Silver Copper Aluminum Commodities 55

56 Agriculture Corn Wheat Sugar Soy Beans Commodities 56

57 Foreign Exchange Dollar Index Euro/Dollar Dollar/Yen Pound/Dollar Commodities 57

58 Allegiant Private Advisors Wealth Management Investment Management Client Services Martin Kossoff, CFP, AIF Principal President Elizabeth Stephen, CFP, AIF, CTFA Wealth Advisor Kristina Vorndran, CFP Wealth Advisor Assistant Melissa Walsh, CFA, CFP Wealth Advisor Carl Watkins, CFP, CDFA, AIF Principal Wealth Advisor Director Paul Cantor, CFA, CFP, AIF Principal Chief Operating Officer Cameron Dees Research Assistant Benjamin Jones, CFP, AIF Principal Chief Investment Officer Luke Nicholas, CFA, CFP Portfolio Manager Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted average of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The S&P 500 Index is a broad-based measurement of changes in stock market conditions based on the average performance of 500 widely held common stocks. The Russell 3000 is a market capitalization weighted equity index encompassing the 3,000 largest U.S. stocks. The MSCI EAFE Index is a float-adjusted market capitalization index designed to measure developed market equity performance, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The Emerging Markets Index is a float-adjusted market capitalization index that consists of indices of 21 emerging economies. The CBOE Volatility Index is a key measure of market expectations of near-term volatility conveyed by S&P 500 stock index option prices. The Shanghai Composite Index is a stock market index of all stock (A shares and B shares) that are traded at the Shanghai Stock Exchange. The ISM Manufacturing Index is based on surveys of more than 300 manufacturing firms by the Institute of Supply Management. The Non-Manufacturing ISM Report on Business is a purchasing survey of the United States service economy, published by the Institute for Supply Management. Investments involve risk including possible loss of principal amount invested. Commodities investments may not be suitable for all investors, and there is no guarantee that any investment will be able to sell for a profit in the future. Advisory services offered through Commonwealth Financial Network, A Registered Investment Adviser. Maura Comerford Operations Specialist Kristina Eastmond Operations Manager Lynda Franklin Executive Assistant Helen Raymond Senior Operations Specialist

59 Proprietary Research Visit AllegiantPA.com to Subscribe December 2018