Are You Ready for A Regime Change. Jim Quinn (Student Investor) December 3, 2016

Transcription

1 Are You Ready for A Regime Change Jim Quinn (Student Investor) December 3, 2016

2 DISCLAIMER The content of this discussion is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice. All discussion content shall not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or financial product, or to participate in any particular trading or investment strategy.

3 DISCLAIMER (CONT) The ideas expressed in this discussion are solely the opinions of the author(s). The author(s) may or may not have a position in any security referenced herein. Any action that you take as a result of information or analysis provided in this discussion is ultimately your responsibility. Consult your investment adviser before making any investment decisions.

4 My Philosophy Preserve Capital Earn Best risk-adjusted Return Not a day trader, I am looking for weekly systems or longer I look for systems which meet these requirements Focus on ETFs and Mutual Funds rather than stocks to reduce risk; Mostly ETFs I am now focusing more on SIMPLE systems while ALWAYS watching the Market

5 My Philosophy (Cont) I Look for trends Visuals (ie charts) are Very Important I am not necessarily a Buy & Hold investor, but would like to be; and Am Getting Closer to being one Am ALWAYS interested in New & Innovative Approaches to Investing Questions/Comments: jquinn1469@verizon.net

6 About Todays Meeting NOTE: Could be BEST of both Investment Worlds NOW; Still have Obama Carryover with Trump Buzz. See DPZ chart on next page 2396 of 8345 (32.3%) securities (Stocks & ETFs) up over 10% in last 15 days as of 11/23/16 I will be looking more at Stocks since Dr Don will be focusing on ETFs There seem to be lots of New Starting GOOD Charts REMEMBER; these are only My Opinions (Potential Actionables), NOT Reccomendations CAVEAT EMPTOR; BUYER BEWARE

7 DPZ, 3700 % Gain in 8 Years; Could we be heading for this again?

8 My LATEST MA Thoughts I look for stocks with lower volatility which stay ABOVE the major Moving Averages (MAs) See the example of NVDA in the following slide The slides on my May 2016 buys will shed more light on this process In my latest November 2016 buys, I have focused more on stocks or ETFs which have more of an uptrend rather than a decline (See NVDA Chart)

9 My LATEST MA Thoughts The more I use it, the more I feel is has a lot of possibilities If the 4 week MA stays above the 30 and 40 week MA, I stay in I feel a good sell signal is when the 4 week MA goes thru the 30 and 40 week MAs

10 NVDA

11 My LATEST MA Summary Thoughts My charts are from HGSI I show you an example of how you can use StockCharts (FREE) on slides 61 and 62 at the end of this presentation to produce similar charts NOTE: I tend to be a B&H and stay in thru the drops as long as the chart is good YOU MAY DIFFER!!!!! BUYER BEWARE!!!!

12 May 2016 Results After my May 2016 presentation, I decided to try my own medicine and Buy some of the stocks I had looked at in the 6/2016 presentation I purchased the following stocks Dominos (DPZ), ULTA (ULTA), COR, NI, and EXR I sold the last 3 in 9/16 and 10/16 since they had lost money but I still own DPZ and ULTA As of 11/24, DPZ is up 34% and Ulta is up 22.9% See the DPZ and ULTA Charts on the next two slides

13 May 2016 Results; DPZ

14 May 2016 Results; ULTA

15 May 2016 Results The next slide shows a chart of EXR which I sold in 9/2016 Had a GREAT chart until 8/2016; then tanked As you can see, it had an obvious sell signal at the end of July when the 4 week MA went down thru the 30 and 40 week MAs My other sells had similar chart patterns A better BUY idea may have been to focus on those stocks (see NVDA) which had a very strong near term record (see 2nd slide)

16 May 2016 Results; EXR

17 Nvidia; VERY good recent chart

18 May 2016 Results; Net/Net If I had paid better attention, I could have saved $ by selling when the 4 week MA hit the 30 & 40 week in 8/2016; at about 86. My sale (at the 30 week MA) would have lost 1% not 15+% Might have been even better by watching the charts closer since price had been falling

19 Theoretical REGIME Ideas I define Theoretical Regime ideas as those SUGGESTIONS made by anyone as to what they THINK would work in the future Most of these ideas come from Seeking Alpha daily reports (Great reports) or from some other articles I have read recently

20 Theoretical REGIME Ideas

21 Theoretical Infastructure Ideas from an Infastructure Model

22 Theoretical REGIME Ideas; Trump Infa. Play

23 ETF DB REGIME Results; from a Trump Victory

24 Trump Victory ETF DB Gold

25 Trump Infastructure ETF DB ETFs

26 Finding ETFs Plutos SA 11/12

27 More Trump ETFs

28 US Dollar Rising Per Economist Article the Dollar is rising UUP up 5.6% in last 13 weeks

29 Theoretical Summary Areas that should do well US Dollar InfaStructure Financials Defense Gold Small & Midcaps

30 Now for the ACTUALs; Looking for the BEST Stocks & ETFs We have looked at the Theoreticals, now lets see what is ACTUALLY going on in Stocks and ETFs We will look at some different ways of seeing what Stocks and ETFs are moving since the Election NOTE: All slides are sorted on the 7th column to rank them by their return over the last 15 days (days since the Election) ALSO; Most of securities that I show have good charts

31 Sector Surfer (SS) Usage

32 Using SS Screener to Look for VERY Good STOCK Charts In SS, go to screener and sort on 4 th column, (trendquality) in descending order; see next slide This should show the best presently trending stocks Then look at Col 8 (1year range) and pick those stocks which ALSO have a value of 85 or above Then I pick the best charts

33 Using SS Screener to Look for VERY Good STOCK Charts

34 SS Screener VERY Good STOCK Charts

35 Ranked on Rel. Strength over last 3 Weeks

36 Index of these VERY Good STOCK Charts

37 IBD Usage Another source of Stocks can be Investors Business Daily (IBD), published every Saturday; which is in many libraries Page B1 lists their top 15 (of 50) stocks in their IBD 50 list I chose the ones with the best charts from the paper and then looked at them with my software This week my choices for the BEST are: NVDA, WDR, EVR, AEIS, LOGM, ANET, GIMO and ESMC

38 IBD Stocks

39 IBD Stocks RS Ranking last 3 weeks

40 IBD Stocks Index

41 ETF Component Usage Another way to find good stocks is to ID the BEST performing ETFs; then determine which stocks within the ETF are the Best performing I am using ETF Screen (Free) to rank the best performing ETFs over the last month; (in this case XME is #2) and then ID which stocks are held by XME and then finally ID the Best Stocks by charts is a FREE site which shows the stock components within an ETF

42 ETF Screen Ranked over Last Month

43 ETF Screen ETFs Ranked by $ Vol.

44 Potential Stock List from XME Select XME #2 on list, since I know I can get its components from HGSI Find XME Components in HGSI see next slide Pick 4 best by Charts: X, AKS, WOR and SCHN

45 Potential ETF; XME Components

46 Potential Infastructure Stock List Here I use the Infastructure Industry from HGSI, ID the Stocks in this Industry Group and then pick the Best Charts My candidates are shown in the next Slide (See Col 3 for their symbols)

47 Potential Infrastructure Stock List

48 Potential Summary Stock List, From the SS, IBD, XME and Infa. Lists

49 ETF Selections

50 Potential IBD ETF List from page A16 of 11/27/16 IBD

51 Potential Summary ETF List

52 November 2016 Buys In order to continue the same buying experiment, I bought the following Stocks & ETFs on 11/28/16 I bought the following Stocks: NVDA, LOGM and AEIS I bought the following ETFs: SLX, KRE, PKB and ITA

53 Some Random Bond Thoughts Since there has been a lot of NEGATIVE Publicity about Bonds; Just some thoughts from various sources, for Your Reading Pleasure. Per Richard Young; he likes two Pimco funds: PIMIX ($100K Min) and PONDX

54 An Interesting Bond Paper; Bond Paper URL, See next page for URL

55 ScoreCard: Bond Paper URL

56 Bond Investing in 2016 & Beyond

57 Bonds in Rising Rate Environment

58 Bond Thoughts from SA 11/15/16; This guy is Excellent

59 Bond Thoughts from SA 11/16/16

60 Bond Thoughts from Jeffrey Gundlach

61 StockCharts SPY MA Chart of 9/9/15

62 MA Chart of 9/9/15; Parameters

63 Section IX - The Market

64 Short Term Market View

65 My MA Market Topping Process I Wait for 30 & 40 Week MA Slopes to go to Zero while the 75 week is still ascending By that time the 4 week MA should be below both of the 30 & 40 Week MAs Confirming Signal seems to be when the 4 week MA goes down thru the 75 week MA

66 Best Indices; Last 3 Weeks

67 Best Major Market ETFs, Last 3 Weeks

68 RBG Input

69 Some Election Thoughts If it didn t happen in 2016, it would have come in 2020 since 80%?? of people in US are NOT happy with Government Have heard rumblings of a NEW Major 3 rd Party which I feel we need Have heard at least 2 scenarios of a Trump Impeachment which actually is not far fetched since he is really NOT Republican, but Independent Hopefully we have heard the last of the Clintons

70 Some Election Thoughts Had 2 VERY FLAWED Candidates; Can t we produce better There is very little we can now affect in Wash. For the next 2 years; Concentrate on Local efforts We can do a lot if we just try to help people Tom Friedman has a New Book with a lot of Great Ideas on how to really fix the country s problems; Thank you for being late; an Optimist s guide to thriving in the age of accelerations.

71 Some Election Thoughts Keep your ears open; two topics I have heard recently which could CHANGE our lives are: Mortgage Interest Rate Deduction and NO MEDICARE (Vouchers Instead)