What can We Learn from the Market? (One Man s 2015 Lessons Learned) Jim Quinn (Student Investor) February 6, 2016

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1 What can We Learn from the Market? (One Man s 2015 Lessons Learned) Jim Quinn (Student Investor) February 6, 2016

2 DISCLAIMER The content of this discussion is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice. All discussion content shall not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or financial product, or to participate in any particular trading or investment strategy.

3 DISCLAIMER (CONT) The ideas expressed in this discussion are solely the opinions of the author(s). The author(s) may or may not have a position in any security referenced herein. Any action that you take as a result of information or analysis provided in this discussion is ultimately your responsibility. Consult your investment adviser before making any investment decisions.

My Philosophy Preserve Capital Earn Best risk-adjusted Return Not a day trader, I am looking for weekly systems or longer I look for systems which meet these

4 My Philosophy Preserve Capital Earn Best risk-adjusted Return Not a day trader, I am looking for weekly systems or longer I look for systems which meet these requirements Focus on ETFs and Mutual Funds rather than stocks to reduce risk; Mostly ETFs I am now focusing more on SIMPLE systems while ALWAYS watching the Market

5 My Philosophy (Cont) I Look for trends Visuals (ie charts) are Very Important I am not necessarily a Buy & Hold investor, but would like to be; and Am Getting Closer to being one Am ALWAYS interested in New & Innovative Approaches to Investing Questions/Comments: jquinn1469@verizon.net

6 Our Meeting s New Rules of Engagement In 2016 & Beyond, we will try and be more interactive Encourage Discussions More Q & A Try to Answer your Questions All within Reasonable time limits

7 Lessons Learned In 26 years at Xerox, by far the BEST process I learned After we developed a Printer, ALL the groups got together and compared notes What you did RIGHT & WRONG Can be applied to ANYTHING How did I handle my last Investment; 2015, etc???

8 My 2015 LL Pluses Refined My Moving Averages (MA) Processes Focused more on LLURs Focused more on LLUR Stocks too Thought MORE about Advisors Focused more on SoftWare Packages (HGSI, Fastrack, SS, Portfolio Visualizer, etc) Better Determined My Investment Approach (Modified B&H??)

9 My 2015 LL Negatives Was not ready for SPY Market Top in 8/2015 or in Early 2016 Was not watching my Portfolio Performance as much as I should have Should have jumped in MAJOR Trends (IBB, etc) sooner I had NO real Exit / Sell Plan

10 1/16 AAII Journal Article On pg. 30 there is a Very Good Article from a Money Manager Summarizing his study of 31K trades titled Being Wrong & Still Making Money Net-Net he discovered that the secret of success was EXECUTION of good ideas; not just great ideas Only 49% of Great Ideas actually worked

11 AAII 1/16 Article Net-Net he basically observes that the best managers were those 1) who corrected their mistakes, 2) who had an EXIT plan before they bought and 3) who rode their winners (Bill O Neil (IBD) always tried to reduce his holdings to 2-3 stocks which he then rode into the sunset) He divides Managers into 5 types

12 WINNERS

13 LOSERS

14 This is all well & good BUT.. If you notice, he is telling you what to do but not necessarily how to do it Probably in his book!! People he looked at were Professionals Potentially had done a lot of Research Had the capability to make MUCH better decisions than we do!!

15 So what should WE do?? Have some kind of PLAN to EXIT if necessary Hedge your positions if you are a B & H?? Have some sort of Rules Or per Skirball 1/16 Meeting Do nothing

16 Two most Important Numbers No matter how you invest, you MUST understand your Financial Situation & Have a FINANCIAL Plan Two numbers are MOST important to me: 1) how much you need to live on and 2) how much you have to invest I discuss this in detail at the URL: In the 11/1/2014 PPT Á Retirement Tome

17 How do you want to invest You also need to Define how much Risk you want to Invest with How much time do you want to spend Investing Are you a Day Trader; Buy & Hold, etc Do You want to use an Advisor(s) ETC, ETC

18 You MUST Monitor the Market I like to watch my MA charts You can duplicate these charts by using Fred Magner s StockChart Approach (See next 2 Slides) BTW I believe these my MA charts can be used to monitor just about any Investment (See IBB MA Chart) Rob Bernstein s Newsletter gives Market Status

19 Fred Magner s MA Chart of 9/9/15

20 Fred Magner s MA Chart of 9/9/15

21 The Market as of 1/30/16

22 Market as of 2/1/2016

23 My MA Topping Process I Wait for 30 & 40 Week MA Slopes to go to Zero while the 75 week is still ascending By that time the 4 week MA should be below both of the 30 & 40 Week MAs Confirming Signal seems to be when the 4 week MA goes down thru the 75 week MA

24 Market with my MAs

25 IBB MA chart; up 365% in 6 Years

26 My Market LLs since 08 ID what kind of a Market we are in ID and RIDE trends in a STRONG MKT I.E. IBB,RETL,QQQ,QLD?? From 09 on Be more conservative in a Volatile Market like we are in now Remember that stocks turn BEFORE ETFs (BTW it looks like SPY = about 182 could be a key support point in the charts)

27 My 2015 Y/E Process Started to prepare by looking at 2015 Returns Sorted ALL securities on % gained YTD Picked out the best 49 based on good daily volume Not bad for a Lousy Year See next 2 slides

28 Top with GOOD Volume

29 Weekly Average of top 49,up 78% in 2015

30 BUT.the SAME 49 on 2/1/16

31 2015 Was a Tough Year BUT.. Of 8400 stocks: 1) 2439 were up > 0% 2) 936 were up > 10% 3) 113 were up > 50% Netflix up 134+% Amazon up 117.8%

32 Always a Bull Market Somewhere

33 My 2016 Process Basically continued 2015 process; BUT also started to look for good MA charts At this point 2016 Slump had kicked in In addition started to use FasTrack SpreadSheet capability to highlight stats I like best The Following Slides show some of these Results TOTALLY DIFFERENT MARKET since 1/1/16

34 A Representative Chart; DRD

35 Best Performers as of 2/1/16

36 Best Performers as of 2/5/16

37 Example of Great Chart; Index up 6.4% so far in 2016; up 10% in 15

38 Best Utilities in 2016 by YTD

39 Best 2016 Utilities by 10 Yr Ret.

40 Best 2016 REITs by YTD

41 Best 2016 REITs by 10 Yr Return

42 Best 2016 ETFs by YTD% 2/1/16

43 Best 2016 ETFs by 10 Yr Return

44 2016 Tobacco

45 3X Neg. Crude DWTI for 318 Trading Days; up +865%

46 DWTI in F/T

47 F/T SS Example over 1 year

48 Considerations Many others to look at Utilities, REITs & Tobacco MOST have dividends LOOK at 5 & 10 Yr Returns; B&H?? Use JIRM Index to Monitor what is moving up or down

49 49 Best 2016 ETFs 2/1/16

50 2016 ETFs vs Stocks Notice NOT many ETFs are positive so far NB Remember that ETFs recover slower than Stocks in a BAD Market Hence you might want to favor stocks INITIALLY

51 ANOTHER Great RY Site

52 Bond Investing in 2016 & Beyond

53 Bonds in Rising Rate Environment

54 Multiple Advisors There seems to be a tendency to try and use a SINGLE advisor I believe this could be a mistake I would like to use a CONSERVATIVE advisor for 70-80% of my assets and maybe split up the remainder between two more aggressive Advisors In this way you are diversifying your Investment Strategies

55 GEM Selection Chart

56 GEM Chart

57 JIRM Index of Best 2016

58 Future Areas to Discuss More Seeking Alpha Ideas More FasTrack More HGSI More Portfolio Visualizor More Market Monitoring Hedging via FasTrack All Weather (long/short) Portfolios

59 Major 2015 LLs MUST decide your Financial Plan which should Include at least 6 months supply of cash; Maybe 1 year s worth Decide how you want to invest Monitor the Market Should have a SELL Plan if Market continues to drop

Are You Ready for A Regime Change. Jim Quinn (Student Investor) December 3, 2016

Are You Ready for A Regime Change Jim Quinn (Student Investor) December 3, 2016 DISCLAIMER The content of this discussion is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice.