ST. JAMES INVESTMENT ADVISORS

Size: px

Start display at page:

Download "ST. JAMES INVESTMENT ADVISORS"

Catherine Webb
6 years ago
Views:

1 ST. JAMES INVESTMENT ADVISORS COMMITTED TO VALUE INVESTING INVESTMENT ADVISER S LETTER APRIL MAIN STREET PORT JEFFERSON, NY

F IRST QUARTER LETTER MARKET DISCUSSION Beware the Ides of March. From Shakespeare's Julius Caesar, 1601. 'Beware the Ides of March' is the soothsayer's message to Julius Caesar, warning of his death.

The markets during the first quarter of 2018 certainly experienced some unforeseen events, especially an increase in volatility!

2 F IRST QUARTER LETTER MARKET DISCUSSION Beware the Ides of March. From Shakespeare's Julius Caesar, 'Beware the Ides of March' is the soothsayer's message to Julius Caesar, warning of his death. This phrase over the centuries has become synonymous with the thought of proceeding with some caution because some unforeseen events were about to occur. The markets during the first quarter of 2018 certainly experienced some unforeseen events, especially an increase in volatility! We have been writing about our belief that market volatility was going to rise compared to the relatively calm we have experienced within both stock and bond markets since the financial crisis. Our biggest reason for why we felt volatility was going to increase was due to the Federal Reserve raising interest rates for the first time since the financial crisis. We think this is long overdue and is a long-term positive for our economy for a number of reasons that we have previously discussed. However, the rise in interest rates is methodically removing liquidity from the system and there is an adjustment process as this takes place. As this adjustment takes place there will be unintended consequences. Warren Buffet quipped Only when the tide goes out do you see who s been swimming naked. An unintended consequence that the Federal Reserve is trying to prevent is high inflation. Make no mistake about it, the Federal Reserve wants some inflation due to our historically high debt St. James Investment Advisors, Page 2

3 levels - and it desperately wants to avoid deflation - but a potential outcome is higher than expected inflation. What exactly is inflation? Inflation is a general rise in the price of goods and services that erodes the value, or purchasing power, of the dollars in your bank account. The inflation rate is the percentage increase in prices over 12 months. The Labor Department's consumer price index attempts to track inflation by measuring the overall change in the price of goods and services. In theory moderate inflation also means an increase in wages for you and I which should make it easier to service existing debt. Last quarter was volatile for stocks, as investors were concerned that rising inflation may prompt the Federal Reserve to increase interest rates four times in 2018 instead of the three increases previously expected. Recently, reports showed average hourly earnings have increased 2.9% over the previous 12 months, the largest year-over-year gain since Higher wage growth, which is due to a strong economy and low unemployment, has historically been linked to higher inflation. Too much inflation can be strenuous for both stocks and bonds. Input prices are higher for companies, consumers can purchase less goods with the same amount of money and companies' revenue and profit becomes less valuable. Inflation is also a threat to bondholders because it reduces the purchasing power of their fixed payments. Also, rising interest rates required by the bond market due to higher inflation, forces companies to pay higher borrowing costs. However, not all stocks decline when interest rates rise. According to data from Ned Davis Research and AAII, dividend growth stocks have historically outperformed in a rising rate environment. Dividend growth stocks can provide protection against rising inflation if their dividend increases are higher than inflation. The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee ( The Fed ) recently raised its target for the federal-funds rate to 1.5%-1.75%, in the belief that the economy is strong enough to push inflation closer to its 2% objective. However, the central bank noted that inflation remained below 2% over the past 12 months despite a low unemployment rate and that their inflation expectations remain modest. If we look at the stock market movement during the last quarter, we can clearly see that there is an adjustment taking place and we are clearly not in 2017 anymore with a record level of market complacency. Technology, the market darling for the last several years, was the biggest decliner recently, with Facebook s 14% drop leading the way down. The tech sector and especially the FANG (Facebook, St. James Investment Advisors, Page 3

4 Amazon, Netflix and Google) stocks have had an overwhelming impact on index returns over the last several years. We think we are in the middle of a shift in stocks where cheaper or bargain type Value stocks should outperform. We have had a period of extended outperformance by growth and especially technology stocks and if we rely upon market history, we believe the rest of the market will catch up. History doesn t repeat itself but it often rhymes Mark Twain. Let s look at conservative utility stocks compared to technology stocks. The Dow Jones Utility Average index is down 3% over one year and down over 6% so far in The Nasdaq 100 Technology Sector index is up 36% over the past year and up over 10% so far in 2018 (at the time this was written). Again, if history is our guide, we fully expect this performance difference to change. Continuing with our history lesson, let s look at current margin debt for investors. Investors will now have to pay more in interest due to higher rates to service their margin debt used to invest in the stock market. Coupled with their tendency to favor the high-flying technology sector and avoid boring value stocks we see another reason for a change in performance leadership. With the Federal Reserve raising interest rates along with concern about inflation, the bond market finally succumbed and produced negative returns last quarter along with the stock market. But is the bond market truly concerned with inflation at this point? The following graph shows the spread in yields between the two-year Treasury Note and ten-year Treasury Bonds. St. James Investment Advisors, Page 4

The spread between the two-year and the ten-year Treasury bond is one way of measuring how worried the market is about future inflation and/or rising interest rates. causing too high inflation.

conundrum for market participants is that little to no inflation seems unlikely, as evidenced by the current low unemployment rate and strong economic conditions.

5 The spread between the two-year and the ten-year Treasury bond is one way of measuring how worried the market is about future inflation and/or rising interest rates. causing too high inflation. The most logical reason why investors demand little or no extra yield to own longer-term bonds, such as a ten-year Treasury, is that there is little concern about the economy overheating and The conundrum for market participants is that little to no inflation seems unlikely, as evidenced by the current low unemployment rate and strong economic conditions. We think the bond market is presently oversold and is due to rebound over the short to intermediate term. We feel this will also benefit certain areas of the stock market such as utilities, energy and consumer staples. PEAK OIL DEMAND? There is a growing chorus that we will soon see peak oil demand and therefore a permanent cap on the price of oil. Many in the "peak demand" camp believe that the growth of alternative energy sources, such as electric vehicles, will soon make oil obsolete or at a minimum greatly reduce the need. While this, in theory, is better for mother earth, we do not believe this will unfold anytime soon. Concurrently, some organizations are sounding the alarm we may soon face the loss of global excess spare oil capacity. According to Robert Rapier of Forbes, there are projections that if current trends continue, spare oil production capacity by 2022 will fall to the lowest level since Mark Richard, a Senior Vice President at Halliburton, the world's largest hydraulic fracturing service provider, said that the $2 trillion in spending cuts in the global oil industry over the past few years would impact the price of oil around Richard added, " Sooner or later, the market is going to catch up. You ll see some kind of spike in the price of oil. St. James Investment Advisors, Page 5

6 Lets look at a chart that compares the energy sector to the S&P 500 index. In our opinion, the market has been pricing in success with alternative energy sources since 2008 and not a different scenario. If history is our guide we have a favorable view of the energy sector but acknowledge the path to higher prices will be volatile. CONCLUSION Investors sometimes lose focus regarding their capital allocated to stocks because there is so little personal interaction with the underlying investment. This is understandable because your statement only contains names, symbols and numbers which represent your portfolio. There is little to no real-world interaction. However, if you conducted a private transaction, you would now experience real world interaction due to the purchase of a business. For example, if you bought some ownership in your local pizza store, you would now be able to feel or experience the business. You would be an owner of a business. You would be able to go there and see your employees, interact with management, inspect and compare the pizza being served, hear what the customers are saying, look at the store s financial statements and have a sense of how your store competes with other pizza stores and food stores. The reason you became an owner in the pizza store was to make money. Did you become an owner to get rich quickly? I m going to answer No. Did you become an owner with a long-term time frame to obtain a reasonable return on your investment? I m willing to say Yes. As an owner in this pizza store are you concerned with the price of your investment on a daily basis? Would you go home and look on your computer every day to see what other people are paying for similar pizza stores? The next week? Or the next month? Probably not. Your main concern is how is the St. James Investment Advisors, Page 6

7 business progressing. How is cash flow? How are profits? How is the annual distribution/dividend looking? Your concern is the overall business. Owning fractional shares of publicly traded restaurant business within your brokerage account should not be viewed differently. For example, if you own just one share of Coca-Cola or Exxon Mobil within your account, this means you are now considered an owner of both Coca-Cola and Exxon Mobil. When you buy stocks, you are not simply buying numbers on a screen that go up or down. You are buying real fractional ownership in a business no different than owning a pizza store. For the average investor, the benefit of the stock market is getting to choose what businesses to buy fractional ownership in, and when. I used the pizza store as an example but investing in the stock market allows all of us to obtain fractional ownership in world class businesses located worldwide and across all sectors that we otherwise would not be able to as a private investor. Think about investing as the purchase of a business watch the business not the stock price. Utilize a sufficiently long- time frame if you had to a hold a purchased business for ten-year, what would it look like? Acknowledge price volatility does not equal risk price is what one pays but value is what one gets. As good investing ideas are scarce be patient. Sincerely, St. James Investment Advisors St. James Investment Advisors, Page 7

ST. JAMES INVESTMENT ADVISORS We are professional portfolio managers Committed to Value Investing. We are an independent, fee-only, U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission registered investment advisory firm, providing customized portfolio management services to individuals and their financial advisors.

8 ST. JAMES INVESTMENT ADVISORS We are professional portfolio managers Committed to Value Investing. We are an independent, fee-only, U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission registered investment advisory firm, providing customized portfolio management services to individuals and their financial advisors. Our investment methodology blends a combination of fundamental analysis, discipline and patience with the goal of creating long-term returns based on the time-proven principles of value investing. As thoughtful value investors, our sole focus as a firm is to manage private investment accounts for individuals and financial advisors throughout the United States. IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed reliable but is not necessarily complete, and accuracy is not guaranteed. Any securities mentioned in this issue are not to be construed as investment or trading recommendations specifically for you. You must consult your advisor for investment or trading advice. St. James Investment Advisors, and one or more of its affiliated persons, may have positions in the securities or sectors recommended in this newsletter, and may therefore have a conflict of interest in making the recommendation herein St. James Investment Advisors, Page 8

December 2018 Report

MCG Capit al Management LLC December 2018 Report December 20, 2018 MCG Capital Management LLC is the adviser to investment partnership entities available to accredited investors. The firm also manages