July / August Islamic Finance. Bulletin. Gulf One Lancaster Centre For Economic Research. lums.lancs.ac.uk/research/centres/golcer

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1 July / August 2013 Islamic Finance Bulletin Gulf One Lancaster Centre For Economic Research lums.lancs.ac.uk/research/centres/golcer

2 From the Editor We have entered not only the summer doldrums in international financial markets but also the holy month of Ramadan, and we wish readers a restful time in this special interval. The last month ahead of the mid-year point was anything but peaceful across global asset classes and among key countries in the MENA region, as typically feature in the bulletin. It is a matter of some repetition in this edition that a change of course in the policy setting of the US Federal Reserve made an enormous difference to the outlook and nervousness of market participants. That, and the Chinese economy and policy. So much emphasis had obviously been placed in investor mindsets on the liquidity impetus providing support and profitable motivation that the suggestion that easing might itself be eased was enough to be intepreted as a tightening, darkening most horizons. Stocks and bonds especially both took fright at the hint. Meanwhile, to differing degrees, political events in Turkey and Egypt reminded us of that dimension of risk from an investment perspective, although that hardly seems so important in the context of the violence, disruption and lurking threat to peaceful existence arising from mass demonstrations about government s administration of national affairs. In this issue we carry again our update of developments in the Islamic finance sector, which may have been affected to some degree in those particular countries, with the associated sensitivities. What was clearly notably affected on the month was the trendline in sukuk, where secondary prices were hit in common with conventional counterparts, and primary issuance stalled amid the heightened uncertainty. Contents HIGHLIGHTS (p.3) RECENT DEVELOPMENTS (p.4) STOCK MARKETS (p.6) COMMODITIES (p.9) BOND AND CDS MARKETS (p.11) ACCOUNTANCY ISSUES (p.14) PERSPECTIVE (p.15) Page 2

3 Highlights Stock Markets: The much-discussed policy switch from the US Fed prompted a retreat in June by emerging-market equities globally, in a liquiditydriven capital flight, reversing past flows that had gone in search of enhanced returns. Asian stocks were especially impacted, despite essentially unchanging fundamentals, which have shown the financial strength that investors might have been expected to covet in this particular era. The modest pick-up at the end of the month actually further illustrated the region s dependence on the policy noises coming out of both the US and China. Bond Markets: The same phenomena were on view across global fixed-income. Volatility associated with diminished volumes was evident in the Gulf, for instance, with again a slight uptilt late in the month as US and Chinese officialdom tried to talk the markets into a softening of their initial reaction. Despite the underpinning to Asian currencies, the reversion to dollar assets had the whiff of contagion about it. While not so dramatically affected, sukuk trading was clearly similarly swayed by the lead set by conventional bonds, regardless of the solidity of the investor base. Malaysia: Apart from showing signs of continuity in terms of trading through the global market turbulence, Malaysia has taken further steps to consolidate and advance its leading position in the development of Islamic finance. New legislation has shown a serious degree of intent in rounding together various strands of governance of the sector and providing comfort to consumers, in the form of depositor protection to be underpinned by creating legal accountability upon industry advisers. The insurance segment is being additionally prompted to restructure.. Page 3

4 Recent Developments in the Islamic Finance Industry Bahrain-based association eyes expansion The General Council for Islamic Banks and Financial Institutions (CIBAFI), a non-profit organisation headquartered in Manama lobbying on behalf of Islamic finance, is more actively seeking to spread its influence beyond the Gulf. Its main purpose is to shape rules and practices in new markets as they grow. CIBAFI was founded in 1999 by the Jeddah-based Islamic Development Bank, has 114 member institutions, and has traditionally focused on neighbouring countries forming a core market for the industry. The association is keen to enlarge its geographic scope while engaging national regulators more actively. A representative office is to be located in Tunisia, operating as a gateway to Africa, also in Azerbaijan to reach central Asian countries. Addressing a major weakness in the lack of well-trained professionals, CIBAFI plans to expand its training and certification programmes. Source: The Arabian Business News, June 25th GOLCER believes it s time for the industry to be supported by this type of organization to build the long-term health for the sector in general, improving the regulatory environment as well as increasing its size. The industry not only needs new licensed banks, as are opening yearly, but also to develop its solid platform, and to enable fair competition with conventional institutions that have had a long history of operation. Bank. A Takaful insurance company has also begun operating in the past two years. Source: Reuters, July 3rd GOLCER considers this initiative as still an early attempt to expand the industry in east Africa. Practitioners within the industry see the continent as a frontier for the sector, given the concentration of Muslim populations alongside the developed local market for Islamic banking. Omani interbank market built with wakala Islamic banks in Oman are working towards building a counterparty network for wakala (a Shariah-compliant agency agreement) to use as a major tool for their interbank funding needs. This is expected to help Omani banks profitability as well as challenge the dominance of commodity Murabaha (a cost-plus-profit arrangement) that is popular in other countries. Illustrated examples Standard Chartered plans Kenyan launch Standard Chartered Bank, which currently offers Islamic banking in Indonesia through associate Bank Permata, will start a counterpart offering in Kenya, where Islamic banking currently represents 2% of the whole banking industry. The new entity is targeting the country s official Muslim population of 4 million people, 10% of the total, as well as non-muslims investors. Only two Islamic banks operate in Kenya already: Gulf African Bank and First community Page 4

5 are given by the bilateral wakala agreement signed this month between Bank Nizwa (Oman s first fully-fledged Islamic bank) and the Islamic unit of Bank Sohar, which allows the lenders to place surplus funds with each other. During the last month a standard wakala contract template was also launched by the Bahrain-based International Islamic Financial Market, a non-profit industry body which develops specifications for Islamic finance contracts. Source: Reuters, July 15th GOLCER finds the use of the interbank instruments of wakala as a new tool for the Gulf region, where Murabaha contracts have dominated. The use of commodity Murabaha faces criticism for not being sufficiently based on real economic activity, therefore not in line with Shariah principles, which is why some countries in the Gulf (like Oman) have banned them. Tunisia passes much-delayed sukuk law Tunisia s parliament has finally secured the passage of a law allowing the state to issue Islamic bonds. Minister Elyess Fakhfakh announced this month that his ministry planned sometime in November or December to issue a sovereign sukuk to raise $700 million. The government, led by moderate Islamists, is keen to develop Islamic finance, which has been intentionally neglected in the country for ideological reasons by the regime before the 2011 revolution. A Tunisian sukuk issue could attract Islamic-oriented funds from the wealthy Gulf. Malaysia still flourishing with sukuk With the yields on US Treasuries volatile over the past six weeks, Malaysia seems to be weathering the storm all right. The apparent beginning of the end of the Fed s bond purchase programme has caused havoc with emerging market debt. However, it is hoped that Malaysia s sukuk market will show a continuation of its positive trend through the second half of 2013 in spite of the broader markets gyrations. The low yields on most conventional debt instruments and savings products in the US and Europe is a factor favouring the pursuit of higher yields in emerging market debt. Source: The Islamic Global, July 19th Source: Reuters, July 18th GOLCER perceives the expansion of the industry in Tunisia to become more likely, noting by comparison the collapse of the suggested sukuk law by the Egyptian government following the recent military coup in that country, which seems liable to freeze plans for the expansion of the Islamic finance sector there. Page 5

6 Stock Markets GCC It was a tale of two halves for Gulf equities overall, surging to recent highs in the earlier part of the month, but slipping back just as much in the later weeks, ending with a negative tone. The region s bourses retreated in the manner of most emerging and frontier markets upon the apparent change of policy of the US Federal Reserve towards its quantitative easing programme, as affected financial markets worldwide, although in fact relatively outperforming. More immediately, the region s indexes were responding to profit-taking in the absence of further catalysts for local pick-up, and the onset of the summer lull. The correction in the Gulf was illustrated most markedly by the decline in Dubai s index, informed mainly by the drop in bellwether financial services, real estate and construction sectors. Meanwhile, the Saudi index still managed to advance, as did Qatar, which benefited from a smooth transition of leadership. MENA The shock and nature of political transition in Egypt at the mid-year point reverberated around the world, and is therefore well documented. The stock market s continuing demise ahead of that event was a reflection not only of the continuing economic crisis in the country but also anticipation of the trouble arising from the rising discontentment among gathering crowds in Cairo especially, and the inability of the Mursi presidency to assuage those concerns. Eventually the intervention of the army itself was expected, and led to an uplift in the last days of June, as the overthrow of the political leadership was, remarkably, perceived to herald a positive change in the country s fortunes. While local investors were prepared to dip into the market for blue-chips that had been hit hard by the state of Egypt s economy and finances, foreigners made a belated departure until the dust settled on the critical situation. Islamic Index GCC Correlation (1 mth) Conventional Index Egypt Islamic Index MENA Correlation (1 mth) MENA Aggregate Index Page 6

7 Far East In common with equities globally, Asian stocks followed the benchmark US example in reacting badly to the Fed s policy switch in particular, also indications from China of economic weakening. Risk-averse investors kept markets on the defensive. As the sell-off accelerated, regional indices showed some of the steepest daily losses for two years. The Philippines suffered especially following outperformance, dipping to a six-month low. Late in June some turnaround was seen. Indonesia and Malaysia improved as the Fed attempted to soften fears about the withdrawal of stimulus, encouraging foreign investors to return, and China s central bank also signalled a softening of the immediate credit crunch it had imposed. Singapore, Taiwan and Thailand surged in the last week upon squaring up for the quarter. Rest of the World Global stocks were plainly harmed by the key policy and economic news out of the US and China, illustrating the level of dependence of financial markets on these prime concerns across the board, and their impact on international liquidity. The S&P500 index fell for the first time for seven months, while statistics on the US economy itself were mixed. They were poorer in Europe, whose bourses fell too, with manufacturing and unemployment figures in a recessionary slant, and ECB chief Draghi surprised investors with a lack of dovishness, publicly anticipating gradual recovery. Japan s Nikkei index lost limited ground upon signs of economic recovery, but emerging markets were knocked additionally by social unrest in Brazil and Turkey. Malaysia Islamic Index S&P 500 DJ Islamic Index 1.26 x Far East Correlation (1 mth) World Conventional Benchmarks Correlation (1 mth) World Islamic Benchmarks Correlation (1 mth) Aggregate Far East Euronext FTSE Shariah World Index Sources: Global Investment House, Reuters, broker reports Page 7

8 Islamic Stock Indices Islamic or Shariah compliant indices exclude industries whose lines of business incorporate forbidden goods or where debts/ assets ratios exceed 33%. The increasing popularity of Islamic finance has led to the establishment of Shariah compliant stock indices in many stock markets across the world, even where local Muslim populations are relatively small, such as in China and Japan. Evolution of Islamic Stock Markets in June 2013 for GCC, Far East, Middle East North Africa (MENA) and Rest of the World markets. Prices represent the closing price of the respective index at 30/6/2013. Percentage Month-to-Month (MTM) Change and percentage Volatility. Source: Datastream Conventional Stock Indices Volatility is a measure of uncertaincy of market returns. It is calculated as the standard deviation of the returns in the reported month. The formula for the standard deviation is: σ=e[(x-μ) 2 ] 1/2 Evolution of Stock Markets in June 2013 for GCC, Far East, Middle East North Africa (MENA) and Rest of the World markets. Price represent the closing price of the respective index at 30/6/2013. Percentage Month-to-Month (MTM) Change and percentage Volatility. Source: Datastream Page 8

9 Commodities Oil Oil prices were roughly sideways for a second month in June, showing a slight increase following a localized peak and trough, and somewhat in contrast with the volatility witnessed among most commodities. Opec reported that sour grades were supported by better refining margins, while WTI was helped by improved US economic data, and curtailments to Canadian crude shipments owing to flooding and oil sands production. Brent s retention of levels above $100 seemed to reflect expectations of seasonal pick-up in demand, such as the summer driving season in the US, air conditioning requirements in the Gulf, and the return of refineries from maintenance cycles. As to geopolitical concerns, regional pressure from the Syrian crisis was offset by the outcome of the Iranian general election. Natural Gas Henry Hub natural gas prices repeated their monthly slump in June, owing once again essentially to unfavourable weather patterns, except for a bump in mid-month. Milder conditions prevailed across much of the US heartland and north-eastern regions, inhibiting the call upon power generation for cooling needs. Reported slippage in industry s requirements also brought downward pressure. The balance in favour of speculative long positions moreover showed a sharp decrease. In the last week of the month prices dropped further upon data for inventories exceeding forecasts. Analysts continue to take a negative view of mediumterm trends in global supply and demand, including the prospects for shale. Gold Having softened only moderately in the first half of June, gold fell precipitously in the second half upon the supposed shift in US monetary policy. Hedge funds had already decimated bullish futures and options positions in recognition of the established downtrend when investors turned away from the precious metal upon the Fed s suggestion that monetary easing would be checked. The dollar rebounded, and, without threatening inflation appearing on the horizon, rising USD/Troy Ounce USD/barrel USD/MMBTU Natural Gas Crude Oil Natural Gas Brent Oil Dubai Oil WTI Oil 3.4 Gold Precious Metals Index bond yields aggravated the income comparison. Chartists pointed to significant technical damage; buyers were absent fearing catching a falling knife, so that sellers could not rely on bargain-hunters in the physical market. Chinese economic stats indicating sluggish global recovery further diminished gold s support. Page 9 Precious Metals Index

10 Copper/Base Metals Copper prices plummeted in June, having held a rough stability in May. Expectations of surplus in 2013, with rising output from mines and refineries and falling consumption, were compounded by news of further slowdown in the Chinese economy, with a seasonal component as well. Base metals moved very much in tandem. The picture from China was further complicated by a deliberate liquidity squeeze that shook sentiment. Copper also epitomised the general flight from commodities sparked by the Fed s tapering remarks. A supposed shortage of scrap that might limit the decline was swept aside in the rush. Aluminium hit a four-year low, producers believed to be unprofitable at current price levels. Sugar/Agriculturals While agriculturals generally took a dive on the month, sugar sprung back from May s plunge, and then struggled for direction. Heavy rains in Brazil that curtailed harvesting of cane, and reports of a warehouse fire, interrupted the downhill trend. Until that point observers had been guided by forecasts of helpful weather ahead. Another intervening factor was research which suggested that the demand for ethanol in Brazil itself, tempting consumers at reduced prices and only two-thirds the cost of gasoline, could drive the global surplus to a multi-year low. Analysts still opted for a bearish tone, despite a suggestion of higher demand from the Far East. Edible Oils Both palm and soybean oil held relatively steady until mid-month -- partly supported by the imminence of Ramadan and the relevance of feasting to the consumption of vegetable oils but then the two series parted ways. Having benefited in early June from investor positioning betting on likely stocks data, palm tumbled in line with the broader reaction among commodities to the Fed s key policy announcement. It further responded to concerns that USD/MT USD cents/lb Copper Base Metals Aggregate Index Palm Oil (USD/MT) Sugar Palm & Soybean Oil Agriculture Aggregate Index Soybean Oil Malaysian output would rise in the second half of the year, and not be offset by continued stockbuilding. The softening of economic growth in China and India would also limit exports. Reports of potentially greater planting of soybean further implied a weaker market in view. Sources: OPEC, Reuters, Bloomberg, Financial Times Base Metals Aggregate Index Agriculture Aggregate Index Soybean Oil (USD/Bsh) Page 10 Evolution of highly traded commodities in June MTM Change and Percentage Volatilities. US $ and US c indicate United States Dollar and United States cent repsectively. bbl = billion barrels, MMBTU = Million British Thermal Unists, MT = Metric Tonne, LB = Pound and Bsh=Bushel. Prices represent the price of the respective commodity at 30/6/2013. Source: Datastream

11 Bonds and CDS markets GCC Bond yields in the Gulf, as elsewhere, rose sharply in June in response to the comparison of US benchmarks following the Fed s tapering announcement. The message that its recurrent monthly purchase of Treasuries could be phased out was taken by investors across emerging markets as a signal to head for the hills. GCC credits were hit by foreign accounts reducing both risk and duration, with only some private banks seeking to add exposure on the basis of assumed overreaction. CDS moved conspicuously wider. Locals seemed content to stay on the sidelines, and dealers were loath to maintain inventory. The Fed s mollifying of its statement prompted some position covering, but in thin volumes still. Trading was choppy as a mild rally was seen late in the month. Egypt / MENA Debt trading in Egypt had to contend in June not only with the worsening of sentiment globally but also the rising tension within the country, leading to the military intervention and change of political regime. The five-year CDS spread grew accordingly, out to nearly 900 basis points. The mass turnout as the one-year anniversary of President Mursi s accession to power approached turned into violence and chaos that was extensively reported, and represented the culmination of not only the sharpening political divisions in the country but the increasingly dire state of the economy and deteriorating national finances, reflected in the sliding value of the pound, which officially breached 7/$ during the month. Yield to Maturity (%) Yield to Maturity (%) Yield to Maturity (%) Bahrain Bond Yields & Prices Egypt Bond Yields & Prices Malaysia Bond Yields & Prices Bond Index Bond Index Bond Index Malaysia / Far East Far Eastern bond markets went into sustained retreat in line with other markets through June. Selling was said to be indiscriminate, exhibiting a contagion effect arising from the dive in US Treasuries and the containment of the Fed s balance sheet, but was most pronounced in countries relying on commodity exports, such as Indonesia. Asian nations in fact were cushioned by ample FX reserves compared to the crisis of 1997/98, but suffered by way of the high correlation with US debt markets. China s credit squeeze manoeuvre and softer economic indicators also contributed to the slide, running in tandem across emerging markets. Global gravitation back to the US dollar took its toll on regional currencies. Page 11

12 Global Benchmarks Benchmark instruments effectively asserted their dominance over international markets, doing so by leading them to higher yields, as the US Federal Reserve sprung what markets took to be a surprise, namely the prospective tapering on its liquidity injections. The sharp sell-off demonstrated the all-encompassing extent of this source of support, and the irresistible power of liquidity flows. By the half-year point central banks in key centres were all engaged in trying to reassure markets that official rates would remain suppressed sufficiently that bond yields should not head significantly higher. But the damage had been done, and the uncertainty, volatility and mere prospect of a policy shift towards tightening, however modest, effectively advised participants that bond exposure was a much riskier business than had prevailed. Sources: Invest AD, Bloomberg, broker reports Sovereign Bond Markets Evolution of Bond Markets in June 2013 relative to the previous month. The table reports the price index on which the MTM Change is calculated (month-to-month) and the Yield of sovereign bond maturities typically between 6 months and 25 years. Data as at 30/6/2013. Credit Default Swap Markets 2.6 US Bond Yields & Prices 160 Yield to Maturity (%) Bond Index Evolution of CDS Spreads in June 2013 relative to the previous month. The index reported here represents the average basis points (bp) of a 5-year CDS for protection against sovereign bonds. Data as at 30/6/2013. MTM Change refers to the change relative to the previous month. Page 12

13 Islamic Bonds (Sukuk) Trading in sukuk during June was captured by the globalized trend in fixed-income that emanated from investors pullback in the wake of the Fed s tapering suggestion. Brokers advised that the correlation with US Treasuries was even higher than normal amid the panic, in the manner of pure contagion. Even so, the fact that the majority of international investors are geared for cross-border investment in conventional bonds, in emerging markets, meant that the scale of volatility was higher still for those instruments, approximately double. It is a protective influence that a larger proportion of sukuk participants adopt a buyand-hold approach, notably banks and insurance companies. Their typically regional location also leads to that comparative stability, as does the relative lack of liquidity, which dissuades arbitrage trading. Yield to Maturity (%) Middle East Conventional Bond Index (MEBI) Source: HSBC Nasdaq Dubai Clean Price Moreover, the upgrading by MSCI of UAE and Qatar from frontier status led to switching to conventional bonds that were subsequently unwound in the sudden sell-off. Furthermore, brokers refer to not only the captive audience of Islamic investors but the steadily increasing willingness of Western managers to turn to sukuk as an alternative asset class, even during turbulence. Less beneficially for the performance of the market, the dedication of local investors to sukuk investment continued to lead to inflated order books into the second quarter, consequently to overpricing and then price drops in the secondary market. Dubai Islamic Bank s $1bn perpetual, hybrid was an obvious case in point. Global primary issuance so far in 2013 has run ahead of the comparison in 2012, except for the latest month, owing to the immediate uncertainty of conditions, putting plans on hold. Malaysia has continued to dominate both primary and secondary segments. Sukuk yield levels rose by 43% in Q2. Investors in Islamic bonds faced losses, the 3.4% decline in the HSBC Nasdaq index representing the first quarterly drop since 2009Q4 (compared to a 3% decline in Bloomberg s US Treasury index). Sources: Rasmala, Arab News, Thomson Reuters, Zawya Yield to Maturity (%) HSBC NASDAQ Dubai Sukuk Index (SKBI) 3 Source: HSBC Nasdaq Dubai Sukuk is the Arabic name for financial certificates, but commonly refers to the Islamic equivalent of bonds. Since fixed income, interest bearing bonds are not permissible in Islam, Sukuk securities are structured to comply with the Islamic law and its investment principles, which prohibits the charging, or paying of interest. Financial assets that comply with the Islamic law can be classified in accordance with their tradability and nontradability in the secondary markets Clean Price Page 13

14 Accountancy Issues, Rules and Regulations Malaysia boosts protection for depositors Malaysia s new Islamic Financial Services Act (IFSA) was issued this month to give regulators greater oversight as the country seeks to retain its position as the world s second-largest Islamic banking market. Protection for depositors is intended to be enhanced by making religious advisers legally accountable for financial products, and liable to be charged fines and even a prison sentence for wrongdoing. The new rules also include a plan to require Islamic life insurers to separate the life arm from other parts of their business. Malaysia s regulators have also spurred takeovers in the Islamic insurance sector through capital-base provisions that encourage larger participants. The new legislation is considered a sweeping attempt to enforce closer adherence to Shariah laws. Source: Reuters, July 12th GOLCER thinks that this set of directives should encourage practitioners in the industry to become more accountable and professional, while conducting a closer inspection of the financial products they approve. UAE banks seek time to meet exposure rule In final consideration of large exposures, UAE s banks have sought a five-year term to be considered to comply with new rules being prepared by the central bank. The proposal was prepared by a special committee consisting of National Bank of Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank, Emirates NBD, Dubai Islamic Bank and National Bank of Fujairah, which was given the task by the CEOs Advisory Council of the UAE Banks Federation in May Banks in the UAE have recommended that the country s central bank exclude marketable bonds and sukuk from the upcoming new rule on large exposures to corporate entities. New percentage limits have been drafted as to what constitutes large exposure, as a means to avoid the bad debts that have been absorbing the banks liquidity, profitability and capital base. The drafted rule has been designed to encourage banks to lend to corporates according to merit and based on a proper due diligence of the project. Source: Khaleej Times, July 16th GOLCER explains this initiative by the central bank as among official attempts to rescue the banking system from the crash experienced during the global financial crisis. The main purpose of the guidelines is to curb overlending, including by way of mortgages, which featured as a key issue in the crisis in the UAE. Pakistan adopts AAOIFI standards for sukuk This month Pakistan s central bank has adopted a global standard for sukuk for the first time in the country. Issuers will have to comply with the investment sukuk guidelines of the Bahrainbased Accounting and Auditing Organisation for Islamic Financial Institutions (AAOIFI), or face penalties. The main aim is to help Pakistani issues attract investment by foreign institutions, from neighbouring countries and the Gulf. Pakistan s regulators are also developing new rules, aiming to increase Islamic banks share of the total banking sector in the coming few years. Source: Reuters, July 17th GOLCER views this as a novel approach that could boost capacity in the Islamic finance industry in Pakistan, which seems really to be struggling to compete with conventional counterparts. Page 14

15 Perspective Of market realities in the modern world by Andrew Shouler The past month and quarter of the year have been instructive to investors in emerging markets, including those where Islamic instruments have become established. The experience of recent times should have imbued an understanding of the domino or kneejerk effects of the globalized connection of markets, otherwise known as contagion; also the high degree of dependence among stock, bond and commodity markets upon the pure liquidity play created by the monetary easing strategy of key central banks; also the overwhelming importance of the US economy, markets and policy benchmarks, and increasingly the Chinese counterparts, to all notable financial markets. As Gulf-based broker Rasmala observed recently, the risk run-off after the US Federal Reserve announced the possibility of scaling down its bond purchasing programme spread throughout the markets globally. That was almost an understatement, if the chart trends are reviewed. Whereas the issues plaguing the world economy seem structural, involving the creditworthiness of banking systems and sovereigns, the impression of market cycles is that they have passed a localized peak, even before the underlying economies have properly escaped their trough. In bond markets, for instance, which tipped decisively into downturn in May, that damage was only amplified in June as these fundamental realities sank into the collective conscience. For sukuk, it has meant a serious reappraisal of the returns on offer to those invested only for the short term. The reversal in Islamic bond indices was reported to have exceeded that of US Treasuries in the first half of 2013, reflecting an inherently higher volatility arising out of the fickle nature of international funds flows, notwithstanding the strength of financial surpluses and reserves supporting, for instance, Asian currencies. That may have been a wake-up call to those who had assumed that such a bedrock of strength -- besides the weight of demand among money managers and personal accounts for Islamic instruments -- would provide adequate protection against losses. The lesson could be that the gains to be made in what remain marginal markets in global terms may be limited to the kind of fluctuations experienced in all conventional markets, unless an investor is prepared to hold on for the medium and longer term, and indeed to the maturity date, even then assuming a capital uplift from doing so. The other notable feature appearing out of our coverage of recent months has been the political crises in Turkey and Egypt, leading to market and economic reactions. They formed a joint reminder that greater rewards go hand in hand with greater risks, and that rating agencies have validity in factoring in some element of political assessment into their analyses. Political stability carries value, though often ignored by investors as if something practically to discount. In the cases of Turkey and Egypt, even the presence of democracy, in the sense of periodic elections, has been seen to be no guarantor of peaceful trading, given expectations of certain freedoms. That said, experts have identified no particular threat to the continuing emergence of the Islamic finance sector, at least, in these heavyweight countries. For the record, research studies have confirmed that stock market performance, to take a key example, is informed by macroeconomic and institutional environments, but also measured political risk. Page 15

16 Marwan Izzeldin Director Andrew Shouler Editor Research Team Gerry Steele Vasileios Pappas Marwa El Nahass DISCLAIMER This report was prepared by Gulf One Lancaster Centre for Economic Research (GOLCER) and is of a general nature and is not intended to provide specific advice on any matter, nor is it intended to be comprehensive or to address the circumstances of any particular individual or entity. This material is based on current public information that we consider reliable at the time of publication, but it does not provide tailored investment advice or recommendations. It has been prepared without regard to the financial circumstances and objectives of persons and/or organisations who receive it. The GOLCER and/or its members shall not be liable for any losses or damages incurred or suffered in connection with this report including, without limitation, any direct, indirect, incidental, special, or consequential damages. The views expressed in this report do not necessarily represent the views of Gulf One or Lancaster University. Redistribution, reprinting or sale of this report without the prior consent of GOLCER is strictly forbidden.